Marc Andreessen — @pmarca


  • 1

    • @scheplick @StockTwits It would have been hard to quantify the situation in that case with traditional methods.
    • @scheplick @StockTwits For high-growth tech, the 90%+ of the market cap is in the terminal value of the DCF, which is mostly not modelable.
    • @scheplick @StockTwits Another example, Paul Allen owned 25% of AOL in the early 90's, would have topped out worth $40B in 1999.
    • Also revealing: how we explain old things to children. "What's a record store, daddy?" "It's like iTunes, but in a building." — (RT @visakanv)

    1 day ago ago via Twitter

  • 2

    • @semil @nabeel Yes!
    • @semil @nabeel I'll just say it. 😀 Ability to generate heat in one round = increased odds of being able to generate heat in the next round.
    • @semil @nabeel Increased odds of being able to generate heat in the next round = risk mitigation on future financing; safer company to back.
    • @semil @nabeel A lot of the VC rituals that people think are quaint actually test for very important traits of a startup, in my experience.
    • @semil @nabeel This is a great example.
    • @semil @nabeel When we back a startup with a ton of heat in one round, we immediately compile a list of interested investors for next round.
    • We @a16z were proud to have @vgr as Philosopher In Residence last year. Read his new content series "Breaking Smart"! http://t.co/7nRIynDNuK

    3 days ago ago via Twitter

  • 3

    • 7th marching order: HQ move from San Francisco to more business-friendly Pyongyang. 😉 https://t.co/WEPjyLaPEl @carlquintanilla @nickbilton
    • 8th marching order: Board meeting minutes printed only on finest artisanal hemp. 😉 https://t.co/WEPjyLaPEl @carlquintanilla @nickbilton
    • 9th marching order: Signed-out user experience to be only @realDonaldTrump tweets. 😉 https://t.co/WEPjyLaPEl @carlquintanilla @nickbilton
    • 10th marching order: Special 1,400-character tweet limit for Twitter CEO. 😉 https://t.co/WEPjyLaPEl @carlquintanilla @nickbilton

    4 days ago ago via Twitter

  • 4


    6 days ago ago via Twitter

  • 5

    • @LPVC_SimonSkow @DuncanWeldon There are two theories why they aren't...
    • @LPVC_SimonSkow @DuncanWeldon My theory: shareholders & their agents are exhibiting irrational myopic risk aversion. http://t.co/a51ZPXKwWs
    • @LPVC_SimonSkow @DuncanWeldon My partner @cdixon theory: shareholders have properly concluded most bigco management incapable of innovation.
    • @LPVC_SimonSkow @DuncanWeldon @cdixon And then there is scenario where both are happening and reinforcing one another.
    • @LPVC_SimonSkow @DuncanWeldon @cdixon But important to have model of why to correctly prescribe fixes!

    1 week ago ago via Twitter

  • 6

    • @DuncanWeldon Agree with the diagnosis. Less sure about his thoughts on how to address it.
    • @DuncanWeldon Dog that doesn't bark in these discussions is why there aren't more *new* firms taking investment and driving growth.
    • @DuncanWeldon In US now, only 5-10% of annual SP500 cash distributions are being invested in new/young/growth companies. Why not 20% or 50%?
    • @DuncanWeldon If we can answer that, then we can fix the problem with growth instead of redistribution. Strikes me as better path.

    1 week ago ago via Twitter

  • 7

    • @findjashua Several of the countries you mention are tiny, more like major cities.
    • @findjashua France unemployment is terrible, youth unemployment is a disaster, and Muslim immigrant unemployment is a catastrophe.
    • @findjashua Germany -- It would be interesting to see what would happen if they went back to their own currency.
    • Levels of smoking, drinking and drug taking among secondary pupils at lowest levels in more than 30 years http://t.co/YsrPHOzZdg — (RT @clairemilleruk)

    1 week ago ago via Twitter

  • 8

    • @findjashua Youth unemployment in Europe runs as high as 50%.
    • @findjashua ...and more recently has been leading to the creation of a permanent Muslim immigrant underclass, with disastrous consequences.
    • @findjashua Here's what's passing for good news in Spain: https://t.co/pbt04vVXu9
    • Spain's youth unemployment rate dips to 49.2% in Q2, below 50% for the first time since Q4 2011 http://t.co/4KOdeTsteR — (RT @MarkitEconomics)

    1 week ago ago via Twitter

  • 9

    • @octal Yep.
    • @octal Yep.
    • @octal It's some combination of, do they not give up and did they treat your (and therefore your LPs') money like it was their own.
    • @octal Sometimes you make money even though the people acted irresponsibly. In that case, you're tempting fate backing them again.

    2 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • @DShankar No, I don't think so.
    • @DShankar Uber worth ~$40B; Homejoy burned ~$40M. Easy math :-).
    • @DShankar Uber worth ~$40B; Homejoy burned ~$40M. Easy math :-).
    • 1. Lower insurance costs will help propel self-driving cars. http://t.co/eoserc7Srf http://t.co/mk0pGH5s5N — (RT @ramez)

    2 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • @ethanresnick @jason_bowman @n3ro @KevinNR The problem is when the gov't loans $, companies orient around harvesting that gov't loan $.
    • @ethanresnick @jason_bowman @n3ro @KevinNR ...as opposed to orienting around satisfying legitimate paying customers. Huge difference.
    • @ethanresnick @jason_bowman @n3ro @KevinNR We saw this with many of the cleantech companies in SV in 2000's. Gov't funding warped cultures.
    • @ethanresnick @jason_bowman @n3ro @KevinNR Time to break up the government-blessed higher ed certification cartel & create more competition.
    • A BUSHEL OF WEBPAGES/ MT @wrmead: Can't measure 21st century economy with 20th century tools, but we're trying. http://t.co/MfXfyfuxxC — (RT @Robert_Graboyes)

    2 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • @MarkRPellegrino @timoreilly @JBradley_DC "Gang Leader for a Day" by Sudhir Venkatesh is eye-opening on this topic.
    • @MarkRPellegrino @timoreilly @JBradley_DC ...and in ways having nothing to do with drugs or gangs.
    • @MarkRPellegrino @timoreilly @JBradley_DC ...and in ways having nothing to do with drugs or gangs.
    • I, Pencil: My Family Tree. "Simple, yet no single person knows how to make me." http://t.co/b8cbyszA1C http://t.co/Zjs2wAqVPv — (RT @cdixon)

    2 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • @michaelbeach @joshluger There are 3 types: viewers who watch ESPN a lot, those who watch ESPN a little, and those who watch never.
    • @michaelbeach @joshluger The first group values high and the third group values zero. But the middle group is the interesting one.
    • @michaelbeach @joshluger Middle group arguably getting a reasonable deal right now as they get the option of ESPN without paying full price.
    • @michaelbeach @joshluger This is the dynamic that I think is holding the bundle together economically, at least for the moment.

    3 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • @JimPethokoukis Legally enforceable non-competes are a subsidy for incumbents vs startups.
    • @JimPethokoukis Just like the R&D tax credit...
    • @JimPethokoukis Just like software patents.
    • This is beautiful. Melbourne assigned trees email ids so citizens could report issues. Instead,ppl wrote love letters http://t.co/fPAxNA3Pi0 — (RT @SuB8u)

    3 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • @dataPK I don't think any did. At least I don't remember any.
    • @dataPK In the U.S., as far as I know, you only get halted in extreme circumstances, never just because your stock price is falling.
    • @dataPK I can't imagine the SEC would permit you to halt just because your price is falling.
    • @dataPK To find a U.S. comparison for what's happening in China right now, you have to go back to the 1920s, I think.
    • @pmarca Do you have/know of good data on how many NASDAQ listed cos halted trading in 2000? — (RT @dataPK)

    3 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • @ilyasu I think psychologically, denial and wishful thinking (often outright magical thinking) are very strong urges.
    • @ilyasu I think psychologically, denial and wishful thinking (often outright magical thinking) are very strong urges.
    • @ilyasu Financially, professionalized markets seem to have real trouble pricing tail risk. Investors paid to be fully invested.
    • @pmarca SNAFU vs SNATCI (situation normal and then completely incomprehensible) ? — (RT @asynchio)

    3 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion @dandolfa Same as the Internet. Internet can be arbitrarily altered at any time if you get the big telcos and net cos onboard.
    • @Noahpinion @dandolfa This is where the network effect incentives kick in. More valuable to keep it whole than fragment or break it.
    • @Noahpinion @dandolfa This is precisely the elegance of a modern distributed system.
    • FYI, @FT reports on another chilling sign of economic/financial collapse in #Greece :banks prepare to “raid deposits” http://t.co/bmejbe8R9I — (RT @elerianm)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @dandolfa In case you're interested more broadly, there has been a revolution in resilient distributed systems in CS over the last 15 years.
    • @dandolfa Much of the tech industry broadly is being reinvented with new approaches that are adaptive to failures and attacks.
    • @dandolfa Systems design assuming unreliable components and hostile environment. Very different from most of preceding 50 years.
    • Tragic irony: creditors didn't want debt write down now risk huge loss, Syriza didn't want to cut living standards now risk big falls. — (RT @DuncanWeldon)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @UnionSquareGrp This is the method that venture firms use to report marks to our LPs: https://t.co/bfsHwPwYJT
    • @UnionSquareGrp In theory, it takes factors like the one you describe into account.
    • @UnionSquareGrp In theory, it takes factors like the one you describe into account.
    • @UnionSquareGrp Venture firms may encourage their LPs to focus more on cost basis of the investments and realized distributions.

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @StephenIbachQED I think it's a long-term bullish signal. There is huge % on the sidelines to be unleashed in recovery.
    • @StephenIbachQED I think it's a long-term bullish signal. There is huge % on the sidelines to be unleashed in recovery.
    • @StephenIbachQED And huge amounts of $ available for new productive investments.
    • why @finkd is one of best CEOs atm. answering a question @om gave him on founder CEOs vs non-founder CEos (ht @noaml) http://t.co/xD0AuqWDX6 — (RT @prasanna)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @therealbencohen @Noahpinion In my view, people are just flat uncomfortable with risk. Makes them (us) irrational.
    • @therealbencohen @Noahpinion So first we wanted to push growth companies out of the public market due to risk post 2000.
    • @therealbencohen @Noahpinion Now we want to pull growth companies back into the public market due to risk of missing out on capital gains.
    • ICYMI - From yesterday: Schäuble says Greece default, euro exit looks inevitable http://t.co/l2AdL87f63 — (RT @edwardnh)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Interesting analysis in @WSJ of the current water use of California's 800 commercial computer datacenters: http://t.co/CPIQONr6Sw
    • 2/California's datacenters consume 158,000 Olympic sized swimming pools of water per year, or 104,280,000,000 gallons of water per yaer.
    • 3/That sounds like a lot. Enough, in fact, that one might wonder what else might consume that much water every year.
    • 4/It turns out that a single day's supply of newspaper newsprint requires about 300,000,000 gallons of water. https://t.co/IvvjEKuZbD
    • 5/Multiply by 365 days per year, producing the US's annual consumption of newsprint consumes 109,500,000,000 gallons of water per year.
    • 6/109,500,000,000 gallons per year for US newsprint > 104,280,000,000 gallons for California datacenters. Interesting!
    • 7/Of course newsprint consumption is falling due to substitution by online media! And we know online news is a very small % of online use.
    • 8/So, for a small fraction of the water use by datacenters, over time we can likely eliminate nearly all of the water use for newsprint.
    • 9/Not to mention reducing the deforestation caused by newsprint production. Less tree use, less water use = environmental win/win!
    • 10/It's interesting to consider what other current environmental resource uses will be reduced or eliminated by datacenters & online media!

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @Robert_Graboyes @IamStan @asknbid I'm amazed that people in the states that pay in more than they get back don't raise holy hell.
    • @Robert_Graboyes @IamStan @asknbid I'm not amazed that people in the states that get more than they pay aren't more appreciative :-).
    • @Robert_Graboyes @IamStan @asknbid I'm not amazed that people in the states that get more than they pay aren't more appreciative :-).
    • Fantastic story - Magna Carta & the US Strategic Raisin Reserve. Do read Chief Justice John Roberts' finding: http://t.co/p77ekuYXEG — (RT @diane1859)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @_PeterT_ Yes, in some ways the evergreen structure would be closer to permanent capital. But...
    • @_PeterT_ With evergreen, LPs can still pull the plug whenever they want, or reduce allocations, etc.
    • @_PeterT_ With true permanent capital like Berkshire Hathaway, the money can never be pulled out without the manager's cooperation.
    • I wrote a new post on hair http://t.co/qahPQcytlQ . Please refrain from your wise aleck comments about my hair. — (RT @bhorowitz)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @ychernova This is incorrect.
    • @ychernova I am frankly surprised you would post this with this implication without doing the required research.
    • @ychernova I am frankly surprised you would post this with this implication without doing the required research.
    • Public cloud valuations up 40% from 2014, but rev multiples down 40%, courtesy of @bdeeter State of the Cloud report http://t.co/96ah4RkZXf — (RT @skupor)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @TimHaines Yep.
    • @TimHaines My favorite public post like this, ever: http://t.co/MLiyoolRNi
    • @TimHaines My favorite public post like this, ever: http://t.co/MLiyoolRNi
    • This Pope is an interesting blend of 15th century morality, 19th century socialism, 20th century environmentalism, and 21st century Twitter.

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @eduardk Actually, yes, that would fix it.
    • @eduardk Actually, yes, that would fix it.
    • @eduardk Solvency of SS is a function of average working age and birth rate. More low-skill immigrants help with both.
    • @pmarca r u being summoned? https://t.co/qjOitCNgoS — (RT @fqure)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @DavidSchawel I think so, in two possibly different ways. More successes and/or more experiments.
    • @DavidSchawel I think more experiments may be almost as productive for the ecosystem as more successes.
    • @DavidSchawel I think more experiments may be almost as productive for the ecosystem as more successes.
    • It's infinitely harder to make money with lots of money and no brains than it is to make money with lots of brains and no money! — (RT @dmhco)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @jasonlk It's not. It's your job to build a winning company in a large market.
    • @jasonlk It's not. It's your job to build a winning company in a large market.
    • @jasonlk I don't think it hurts founders to know that success in this industry means aiming high.
    • @jasonlk If the data said everyone could build a nice small business and live happily ever after, that would be different, but it doesn't.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @pejmannozad @semil @cape @jeff @rabois Yep. That's almost exactly what seed/A/B were 10 years ago.
    • @pejmannozad @semil @cape @jeff @rabois Or perhaps I should say 12 years ago, and 20 years ago.
    • @pejmannozad @semil @cape @jeff @rabois Or perhaps I should say 12 years ago, and 20 years ago.
    • @pmarca @jeff @semil @rabois startups beginning to realize they need Series B metrics after Seed Extn. No more smoke screens. — (RT @utekkare)

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @sama Wrong timescale. The long-term trend has been down: http://t.co/WKkCW2n0Lb
    • @sama Wrong timescale. The long-term trend has been down: http://t.co/WKkCW2n0Lb
    • @sama And the long term trend should be down. Money by itself shouldn't generate much of a return. This is how the world should work.
    • How about education and job training for disabled in the Middle East? Check out Helm -- mind blow. @MiddleEastInst — (RT @cmschroed)

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @benkepes @ClareCapital @traskjd @CJ_NZ @samstewartnz @tanenui Yep.
    • @benkepes @ClareCapital @traskjd @CJ_NZ @samstewartnz @tanenui I mostly ignore revenue at this point. Gross profit better proxy 4 value add.
    • @benkepes @ClareCapital @traskjd @CJ_NZ @samstewartnz @tanenui I mostly ignore revenue at this point. Gross profit better proxy 4 value add.
    • IBM Just Announced A Robotics Competition To Stop The Winner Of The Previous Competition http://t.co/ON2yAhOIyd http://t.co/uRURL7NYC8 — (RT @ClickHole)

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @georgepearkes An example: Businesspeople have a very hard time understanding comparative advantage. So mired in competition in own lives.
    • @georgepearkes An example: Businesspeople have a very hard time understanding comparative advantage. So mired in competition in own lives.
    • @georgepearkes This is eg why Buffett is such a crank on the topic of free trade.
    • soooo .. any industry surpass this wealth creation in any 20 yr historical period? /cc @tparekh @pmarca http://t.co/SKfjU6Swaw — (RT @staysmall)

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @johnolilly Type A peaked in the U.S. in the 1970s and has been sliding downhill ever since.
    • @johnolilly Type A arguably only still exists as a political base to be pandered to. Esp after the auto industry bailouts 6 years ago.
    • @johnolilly I say none of this to be critical of anyone. I grew up in this milieu in the 1970s. The writing on the wall was obvious then.
    • @johnolilly And in the last 40 years many American parents worked very hard to ensure their kids would rise beyond Type A - including mine.
    • @johnolilly And in fact over the last 40+ years it's been working (from New York Times): http://t.co/5kLgypWreg
    • @johnolilly (The last 6-7 years have been aberrant due to fallout from the financial crisis, but I think the curves will resume from here.)

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @johnolilly Yes! It's in that context where I think we want Type B but not Type A. Education and skill valued, not entitlement and stasis.
    • @johnolilly Yes! It's in that context where I think we want Type B but not Type A. Education and skill valued, not entitlement and stasis.
    • @johnolilly The good news is that Type B really is growing extremely rapidly worldwide. Much of that growth = direct result of new tech.
    • @johnolilly China being a giant case study all by itself. Also India and many other countries with fast growing middle classes.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @johnolilly Definition B: The traditional bourgeoisie -- merchants and craftspeople, small business owners, distinct from laborers.
    • @johnolilly Or Definition A: American workers post-WWII who got paid college graduate level wages for high school graduate level work.
    • @johnolilly Definition A intertwined with both the post-WWII circumstances as well as labor unions. Case study being autoworkers of course.
    • @johnolilly I think the term "middle class" now gets used interchangeably between A and B which leads to lots of confusion.
    • @johnolilly My personal view is that B expands a lot from here but A will keep shrinking. Which I think is clearly happening globally now.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @CodyBrown In a normal year, 17% of jobs in the US go away. http://t.co/2SziVKbLhk
    • @CodyBrown Since there are 141M nonfarm US jobs right now: this year alone, 24M US jobs will go away. http://t.co/vDsbCe95On
    • @CodyBrown So the US economy working normally can redeploy 3.5 million destroyed jobs in about two months.
    • @CodyBrown Further, the productivity gains from cheaper transportation and shipping will create yet more new jobs.
    • @CodyBrown The money that would have been spent paying truck drivers will still get spent, on different things, many of them new things.
    • @CodyBrown This process has been working in the US for 200 years. More jobs today than ever before. Why we are not all farmers now.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @robinhanson @arachleff And paradoxically, low performance means you need returns even more, so you have to try to reach for performance.
    • @robinhanson @arachleff Andy predicts overfunding of VC (and PE etc.) lasts until a third institutional investing "technology" is invented.
    • @robinhanson @arachleff There is, however, no sign of such a new third approach emerging anytime soon. So VC stays overfunded.
    • @robinhanson @arachleff Core problem, of course, is that we collectively need higher aggregate returns than we can get, & we don't like it.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @robinhanson My friend @arachleff knows more about this than anyone...
    • @robinhanson @arachleff Andy says in modern times there have only been two investing "technologies" aka theories/frameworks/approaches:
    • @robinhanson @arachleff (For institutions.) The first, from ~WWII to ~1990, was classic "60% stocks, 40% bonds", 100% public/liquid.
    • @robinhanson @arachleff The second, pioneered by David Swensen at Yale, ~1990-current, is "long-run outperform via illiquid alternatives".
    • @robinhanson @arachleff The obvious problem: If you're Yale or another top institution, you can invest in the best alts. If not, not.
    • @robinhanson @arachleff But, if you're not Yale-caliber, what else are you going to do? There is no other strategy to pursue.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @robinhanson My friend @arachleff knows more about this than anyone...
    • @robinhanson @arachleff Andy says in modern times there have only been two investing "technologies" aka theories/frameworks/approaches:
    • @robinhanson @arachleff (For institutions.) The first, from ~WWII to ~1990, was classic "60% stocks, 40% bonds", 100% public/liquid.
    • @robinhanson @arachleff The second, pioneered by David Swensen at Yale, ~1990-current, is "long-run outperform via illiquid alternatives".
    • @robinhanson @arachleff But, if you're not Yale-caliber, what else are you going to do? There is no other strategy to pursue.
    • @robinhanson @arachleff The obvious problem: If you're Yale or another top institution, you can invest in the best alts. If not, not.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @robinhanson The specialized shops have to stay small and stay laser-focused on particular areas of specialized advanced competency.
    • @robinhanson The specialized shops have to stay small and stay laser-focused on particular areas of specialized advanced competency.
    • @robinhanson A boutique that tries to expand runs the risk of becoming a department store, i.e. walking right into "death of the middle".
    • @robinhanson But of course similarly, a scaled franchise firm that gets sloppy runs the same risk, can degrade itself into the middle tier.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @robinhanson My belief is that VC is restructuring the same way retail stores, law firms, accounting firms, and investment banking did:
    • @robinhanson A few large scaled franchises, a large # of small boutique specialists, and "death of the middle" for firms trapped between.
    • @robinhanson Same effect that resulted in Wal-Mart on the one hand, a thousand boutiques on the other, and the spiraling death of Sears.
    • @robinhanson Controversial thesis in the industry, but I think it's happening and LPs are coming to believe it (= probably self-fulfilling).
    • @robinhanson This seems to be the hallmark of a professionalizing industry being run properly. You either go big or you go specialist.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @robinhanson Change 1: Entrepreneurs are far more networked with one another now vs before; actual VC behavior may now be more important.
    • @robinhanson Change 2: Some VC firms (e.g. mine) believe we have created new and differentiated ways to actively help our startups succeed.
    • @robinhanson Change 3: There are new funding alternatives that didn't used to exist -- seed funds, crowdfunding, AngelList, etc.
    • @robinhanson Big debate in the VC industry right now whether these changes are significant enough to cause long-term systemic change.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @robinhanson They have an aura of success as a consequence of having previously funded successful startups.
    • @robinhanson You walk into Sequoia, the walls are covered with posters from Apple, Oracle, Cisco, Google (all Sequoia funded). There it is.
    • @robinhanson You walk into Sequoia, the walls are covered with posters from Apple, Oracle, Cisco, Google (all Sequoia funded). There it is.
    • @robinhanson Arguably these dynamics are changing in real time in some interesting ways:

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jfpgaffney @DataAndMath In this environment? Probably mostly just increased buybacks.
    • @jfpgaffney @DataAndMath In a more normal environment? Lots more domestic expansion investment and M&A.
    • @jfpgaffney @DataAndMath In a more normal environment? Lots more domestic expansion investment and M&A.
    • "Screw motivation. What you need is discipline." http://t.co/VY1gaPuAHN — (RT @ramez)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @trey_menefee Yep.
    • @trey_menefee Yep.
    • @trey_menefee I don't know much about the field, but I tell friends who went to good schools about my experiences and they don't believe me.
    • "I like to say that if you are afraid of large corporations then you have never worked for one." http://t.co/8A9KZ55van

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Looking the mania surrounding #BRK2015 one has to wonder: is Buffett-style investing now the consensus? — (RT @nosunkcosts)
    • Since Buffett's birth in 1930 average per capita GDP has increased 6X. #BRK2015 — (RT @EdBorgato)
    • Since Buffett's birth in 1930 average per capita GDP has increased 6X. #BRK2015 — (RT @EdBorgato)
    • "My taste for giving away somebody else's money is quite restrained." -- Munger on corporate philanthropy. #BRK2015 — (RT @AlexRubalcava)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @seq23 @tiffani Off the cuff, it wouldn't be tax deductible for the donors if they were specifying individuals. And gift tax would apply.
    • @seq23 @tiffani Off the cuff, it wouldn't be tax deductible for the donors if they were specifying individuals. And gift tax would apply.
    • @seq23 @tiffani Could apparently do it with tax-deduction if it specified groups vs people, eg students of underrepresented characteristic.
    • .@bfeld starts a tweet storm to tell us what Unicorns are really made of and Business Insider takes notice http://t.co/ZfvWvV80R2 — (RT @davidcohen)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @peter @cdixon Nope :-).
    • @peter @cdixon There's nothing stopping any other CS program from doing the same. And yet...
    • @peter @cdixon There's nothing stopping any other CS program from doing the same. And yet...
    • Financial inclusion seeing traction, and mobile's playing an increasing role. http://t.co/H5eJmKXKSb http://t.co/2zQIlXNU75 — (RT @SuB8u)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @modestproposal1 Reasons to go public include:
    • @modestproposal1 (1) Still best way to organized liquidity at scale -- avoids problems of large-scale private illiquidity.
    • @modestproposal1 (2) There are a lot of companies and people in the world who would rather work with or for public companies.
    • @modestproposal1 (3) It can be an excellent way to raise money and to provide access to even more money later, including debt.
    • @modestproposal1 (4) A public equity currency is generally taken more seriously for M&A than a private equity currency.
    • @cdixon replied on Medium: https://t.co/GmoBk4g5el — (RT @ev)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @daveyjose @felixsalmon Look up research on % of jobs over time that have cognitive intensity. US 20th century ramp was amazing.
    • @daveyjose @felixsalmon If I recall correctly, % of cognitive-intense jobs in US went from ~3% in 1900 to over 30% by 2000.
    • @daveyjose @felixsalmon Here's one related study on changes since 2000: http://t.co/EmEqP64z4C
    • Finally Argentina is getting its house back in order https://t.co/cy5UIJuJkW — (RT @peterwsinger)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @daveyjose @felixsalmon I think the most important chart is this: http://t.co/08PywQytby
    • @daveyjose @felixsalmon The returns to education are increasing, both in terms of employment and income. That's the biggest thing.
    • @daveyjose @felixsalmon The returns to education are increasing, both in terms of employment and income. That's the biggest thing.
    • @daveyjose @felixsalmon That's hugely positive, it's a sign of progress. But it's really forcing the issue on access to quality education.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @otisfunkmeyer I think it's the classic purist vs practical dynamic. I think you see it in a lot of fields.
    • @otisfunkmeyer It's the advanced version of the original question "right or successful"? Purist = right, practical = successful.
    • @otisfunkmeyer From the inside, purist looks like high standards and intellectual rigor. From the outside, impractical ivory tower fantasy.
    • @otisfunkmeyer I think there's no question a lot of purists end up bitter. Seems unnecessary. I think Ted should take credit vs be angry.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @otisfunkmeyer My introspective view is that I'm a born tactician. It's a combination of midwest upbringing + engineering mindset.
    • @otisfunkmeyer My introspective view is that I'm a born tactician. It's a combination of midwest upbringing + engineering mindset.
    • @otisfunkmeyer That said, I do take great delight in betting on something that is widely scorned at first and then later becomes successful!
    • It's not #free, it's #priceless: Download @pmarca's blog posts archive as a free eBook: http://t.co/09dKfoJS0p http://t.co/ezyiFLre8y — (RT @sznq)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @seansposito Now THAT is a very good question, and the exact kind of question nobody wants to discuss.
    • @seansposito For anyone highly qualified to be on a public board these days, it is an irrational act to do so.
    • @seansposito For anyone highly qualified to be on a public board these days, it is an irrational act to do so.
    • Getting a Visa Took Longer Than Building Instagram, Says Immigrant Co-Founder http://t.co/gXsDHxorTj via @business @mikeyk — (RT @roelofbotha)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @seansposito The problem with credit cards is that you have to hand over your credentials to pay. It's insane.
    • @seansposito I don't think consumers should have liability for having the credit card info stolen by an unethical merchant or a hacker.
    • @seansposito On the other hand, I do think consumers should bear some responsibility for strong passwords at this point.
    • @seansposito At a certain point in the past, it just became stupid for people to not have locks on the doors of their houses.
    • @seansposito Similarly, today it's just become stupid for consumers to have passwords like "password" or "123456".
    • @seansposito As well, it's stupid to have the option to use two-factor auth and not turn it on.
    • @seansposito All that said, primary responsibility clearly lies with the vendors and service providers.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @semil I have no idea what you're talking about.
    • @semil :-)
    • @semil :-)
    • @pmarca SEO sounds terrible. "Growth hacking" sounds awesome. — (RT @matt_chandler)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @tylercowen @robinhanson In tech this is an easier question to answer, I think...
    • @tylercowen @robinhanson Intangible value = ability for the organization to build future successful products + customer confidence in that.
    • @tylercowen @robinhanson ...since everything the company has built so far will be obsolete within 5 years.
    • @tylercowen @robinhanson This is a harder question to answer for industries where the products more more static, I think.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @igobyterry @bznotes Hmmm. I'm not sure of a single source. Ideas: http://t.co/Syj7QJKuIe http://t.co/Wct3EmtKDb http://t.co/yX1a8QMnyS
    • @igobyterry @bznotes Short version is that total dilution across all rounds is what matters to founders in the end, vs any individual round.
    • @igobyterry @bznotes E.g. a lower-val, higher-quality investor in 1 round can = less dilution later due to signaling, less overall dilution.
    • @igobyterry @bznotes E.g. a down round can cause far more dilution both in fundraising and employee retention grants than expected.
    • @igobyterry @bznotes So founders should think systematically about fundraising and dilution over time, not at any single point.
    • @igobyterry @bznotes Short version: decisions have consequences, and the parameters of each round are serious decisions with consequences.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jeff_wasiluk Steve Martin said, "Be so good they can't ignore you" -- quality in the strategy and the plan will shine through.
    • @jeff_wasiluk Second best way, find atypical sources and networks of talent, including in underrepresented groups/backgrounds.
    • @jeff_wasiluk Second best way, find atypical sources and networks of talent, including in underrepresented groups/backgrounds.
    • Comparing first-gen iPhone (2007) to Apple Watch shows the march of technology, and yet slow progress in battery tech http://t.co/4MI2gG4kk5 — (RT @DShankar)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @RyanBethencourt @vkhosla Yep precisely. It's exactly the same dynamic that created our jobs.
    • @RyanBethencourt @vkhosla It's how all progress has been made since approx the time of the invention of the wheel.
    • @RyanBethencourt @vkhosla It's how all progress has been made since approx the time of the invention of the wheel.
    • Tim Cook plans to donate all of his money to charities after paying for his 10-yr-old nephew's college education http://t.co/zphujWctZv — (RT @AmyResnick)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @RyanBethencourt @vkhosla Yes, Lump of Labor Fallacy.
    • @RyanBethencourt @vkhosla Debunked by even the left wing Paul Krugman: http://t.co/G2YuGhHW33
    • @RyanBethencourt @vkhosla Debunked by even the left wing Paul Krugman: http://t.co/G2YuGhHW33
    • @BenedictEvans @pmarca Truth. One of my Meru drivers in Pune, India showed me his $75 Android phone, saying "This feeds my family." — (RT @TProphet)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @DaleWinstead Success = returns 1x invested capital or more, for the purposes of this discussion.
    • @DaleWinstead Also, I am talking about top-decile VC only!
    • @DaleWinstead Also, I am talking about top-decile VC only!
    • @ggonweb @pmarca This is a blast from the past. I wrote this 10 years ago and I think its mostly relevant http://t.co/YzoMp3eOez — (RT @venkyganesan)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion I guess I don't think it's something that should be prevented or managed. Each company should do what's best for itself.
    • @Noahpinion Plus it's really hard to predict how true competition will unfold, even when people are determined to go after each other.
    • @Noahpinion I have seen many cases of situations that people thought would be competitive that actually never were...
    • @Noahpinion ...and I have seen an equally large # of cases where companies that looked completely different ended up competing directly.
    • @Noahpinion I have not seen either VCs or founders who can really predict how competitive dynamics will actually unfold.
    • @Noahpinion As a result, my own definition of competition has become quite specific: targeting the same $ from same customer at same time.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion I guess I don't think it's something that should be prevented or managed. Each company should do what's best for itself.
    • @Noahpinion Plus it's really hard to predict how true competition will unfold, even when people are determined to go after each other.
    • @Noahpinion I have seen many cases of situations that people thought would be competitive that actually never were...
    • @Noahpinion ...and I have seen an equally large # of cases where companies that looked completely different ended up competing directly.
    • @Noahpinion I have not seen either VCs or founders who can really predict how competitive dynamics will actually unfold.
    • @Noahpinion As a result, my own definition of competition has become quite specific: targeting the same $ from same customer at same time.
    • @Noahpinion When you define competition like that, it's actually quite rare, particularly in newer categories.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A common trope in discussions about startups & venture capital is a potential misalignment of incentives between startup team & investors.
    • 2/I don't think this perceived misalignment actually exists in most, maybe all cases -- and I want to explain why.
    • 3/The argument goes, "When you take VC, you have to shoot for the moon; smaller outcomes that may be great for the team are precluded."
    • 4/First, obvious but important: No startup is forced to take venture capital. In fact, vast majority of successful new businesses do not.
    • 5/The main reason TO TAKE venture capital is in pursuit of a bigger outcome than the startup team believes it could achieve on its own.
    • 6/Hence, taking venture capital ALIGNS interest in a big outcome between the venture investors and the team.
    • 7/Most non-VC investors are more risk averse than VCs; a startup shooting for big outcome that raises money from non-VCs ends up MISALIGNED.
    • 8/The argument cont'd: "VCs can tolerate higher risk of failure due to portfolio of bets, whereas founders and employees have only one bet."
    • 9/In the modern era, that's also untrue. Founders and employees generally make multiple bets as well, in two dimensions:
    • 10/Founders and employees often have running room to try multiple products within a single startup; hence popularity of the term "pivot".
    • 11/And, founders and employees often start or join multiple startups throughout their multi-decade careers = a personal portfolio of bets.
    • 12/In fact, some of today's most successful startups are founded by entrepreneurs whose previous ventures didn't work nearly as well.
    • 13/In short: VC is very much not for every company. But for companies that want to do something big, VC = the most aligned capital there is.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • History shows top VCs suffer ~50% portfolio failure rate as a direct consequence of taking enough risk to get ~50% portfolio success rate.
    • Top VCs win big with 50% success rate & 50% failure rate, because the magnitude of the successes dominates; failures irrelevant in model.
    • "Some startups fail" has no predictive value at all for VC portfolio outcomes -- will always be true, even for best VC funds of all time.
    • "Some startups fail" has no predictive value at all for VC portfolio outcomes -- will always be true, even for best VC funds of all time.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BitCoinSusan The most successful VCs of all time routinely see a full 1/2 of their companies fail or disappoint.
    • @BitCoinSusan History says you don't get the big winners without also a certain % of losers.
    • @BitCoinSusan If you don't get the losers, you aren't taking enough risk and you won't get the winners either.
    • @BitCoinSusan You also tend to see the same distribution within the set of companies that a serial entrepreneur will found over time.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @DanielleMorrill @nabeel LP fees, GP pockets, firm balance sheet if one exists, insurance... Can vary by situation.
    • @DanielleMorrill @nabeel LP fees, GP pockets, firm balance sheet if one exists, insurance... Can vary by situation.
    • @DanielleMorrill @nabeel Consider also: if LP fees, from which fund or funds? If GP pockets, which GPs and what split?
    • @gnoll110 @bengoldhaber @pmarca My book The Future & Its Enemies (1998) has lots of footnotes. http://t.co/jiJPdFFqBK — (RT @vpostrel)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @loic I believe we can program them to kill. I don't believe they will decide to kill on their own.
    • @loic As ever, the thing to worry about is murderous humans, not murderous AI.
    • @loic As ever, the thing to worry about is murderous humans, not murderous AI.
    • Discuss: Ebola is the new Bono.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @nntaleb @EAWharton Yes! Good ideas that look like good ideas have already been tried; bad ideas that look like bad ideas don't work.
    • @nntaleb @EAWharton ...As well, of course, bad ideas that look like good ideas also don't work but get tried over and over again!
    • @nntaleb @EAWharton One might call this the venture capital theory of "high hanging fruit" :-).
    • @amol @pmarca Bottleneck at A Round: startups not satisfying the necessary metrics (not insufficient VCs or dry powder held by VCs). — (RT @trengriffin)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Sharing economy services like AirBnB, Lyft, Uber, et al reduce income inequality, as follows:
    • 2/Once upon a time, only rich people who could afford to build hotels could offer rooms for guests to rent.
    • 3/Thanks to AirBnB, now anyone with a home or apartment can offer a room for rent. Hence, income inequality reduced.
    • 4/Once upon a time, only rich people who could afford to buy a taxi fleet or medallion could offer car rides to other passengers.
    • 5/Thanks to Lyft and Uber, now anyone with a car can offer rides to other passengers. Hence, income inequality reduced.
    • 6/The same dynamic of reduced income inequality will play out in each new sharing category. Delivery, field service, personal care, etc.
    • 7/This expansion of economic oppy and reduction of inequality is direct result of widespread deployment of disruptive tech: the smartphone.
    • 8/As history has repeatedly shown, putting means of production - technology - in the hands of the masses increases their oppy and income.
    • 9/And since we are at the very beginning of understanding the full range of real world applications of the new wave of technology...
    • 10/We are also at the very start of the creation of thousands of new opportunities for economic growth and progress for huge #s of people.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @sama We know how to make maddeningly literal software. We have no idea how to make the AI you're worried about.
    • @sama We know how to make maddeningly literal software. We have no idea how to make the AI you're worried about.
    • @sama I'm surprised you can tweet these things via the iPhone "autocorrecting" keyboard and not get the irony :-).
    • @sama Go get a PhD in the field and then let me know how close, or far away, you think we are.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @paulvigna The best part is that every part is on a dramatic performance curve from here. Will be 10x as mind-blowing in 5 years.
    • @paulvigna The best part is that every part is on a dramatic performance curve from here. Will be 10x as mind-blowing in 5 years.
    • @paulvigna And 100x as mind-blowing in 10 years.
    • Someone posted a drone video to Youtube, and the FAA is ON IT! http://t.co/wI2vSAdtzH

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/In financial markets, one observes two different types of relationship between prices and information.
    • 2/Type D for Deductive: Consider the available information and then calculate a price. The classical model of how to value things.
    • 3/Type I for Inductive: Consider the price, assume it contains information content, and derive the information from the price.
    • 4/In theory financial markets operate mainly with Type D, but I think in practice markets operate mainly with Type I.
    • 5/In the real world, one observes investors and analysts assiduously building models to explain and thereby justify prevailing prices.
    • 6/Paradox? The more one believes the market is Type D, aka the EMH, the more the market actually behaves as Type I.
    • 7/The more you believe the market is efficient, the more information you assume is embedded in market prices.
    • 8/Hence, the more information you assume is embedded in market prices, the more you operate as Type I, inductively reasoning from prices.
    • 9/Therefore, the more one believes the rest of the market is Type D, the more likely oneself is Type I.
    • 10/Hence widespread belief in market efficiency leads to inefficiency, as investors reason from prices vs from a priori information?
    • 11/Is this a robust explanation of boom/bust cycles within a market in which most investors are trying to be rigorously logical?
    • @StartupLJackson @pmarca I tried to replace myself w a robot. Check out my piece on robotics, AI & automation. http://t.co/yhWgndnl2Z — (RT @VonettaLogan)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • The smartest people I know who don't personally work on AI are terrified of the Skynet armageddon scenario. BUT... (cont'd)
    • The smartest people I know who DO personally work on AI are terrified of crazy overhype killing the field again, like in the 1980s.
    • The smartest people I know who DO personally work on AI are terrified of crazy overhype killing the field again, like in the 1980s.
    • The smartest people I know who do personally work on AI think the scaremongering coming from people who don't work on AI is lunacy.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Idle Friday musing...unlike many of my contemporaries, although I enjoyed space novels & movies as a kid, it didn't take the same with me.
    • 2/The common science fiction assumption that people would behave differently in space than they do on Earth always struck me as wrong.
    • 3/Which is why I'm delighted but not enamored with space exploration today. There is so much still yet to do here on Earth.
    • 4/I think we will get a lot more out of making life on Earth better for the 7+ billion people already here than escaping to other planets.
    • 5/Or, more pointedly, it would be shame if we just repeat the dysfunctions of human existence on Earth, in space.
    • 6/Which is not to imply that I am not thrilled by what explorers like Elon Musk are doing. I would love to visit Mars when I am 80 :-).
    • 7/Confirming my nerd status, I have happily watched every hour of Star Trek ever made, and so: Live long and prosper, Leonard Nimoy.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Atif_Rz @sama The renaissance of the written word sparked by the Internet has been a greatly underappreciated phenomenon.
    • @Atif_Rz @sama Ebooks, blog posts, status messages, tweets, email, web sites, fan fiction, etc. etc. -- even, God help us, comments :-).
    • @Atif_Rz @sama Ebooks, blog posts, status messages, tweets, email, web sites, fan fiction, etc. etc. -- even, God help us, comments :-).
    • My prediction is @chrislyons will make some career defining investments for @a16z and will become a partner sooner than later. All class. — (RT @shervin)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Frances_Coppola @alexqgb Maybe the underlying truth is actually coming out.
    • @Frances_Coppola @alexqgb Maybe the underlying truth is actually coming out.
    • @Frances_Coppola @alexqgb It seems to me an awful lot of effort is being expended to avoid repeating this: http://t.co/ENHAFSPD74
    • Report: Greek finance minister Varoufakis almost got into a physical altercation with the Eurogroup chairman http://t.co/jeX0qG42Kh — (RT @businessinsider)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Frances_Coppola Hm. There are two ways of looking at that.
    • @Frances_Coppola The other is that the member states are the ones who actually have citizens to whom they are accountable.
    • @Frances_Coppola If A gets to deal in indirect abstractions and B is accountable for direct outcomes, A will always seem nicer than B?
    • James Galbraith shares what he learned looking at Greece's fiscal crisis from the inside for a week http://t.co/oC3DY0B97c — (RT @edwardnh)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @xdamman Depends what the goal is.
    • @xdamman Depends what the goal is.
    • @xdamman If I were king, I think I'd eliminate income tax and replace it with consumption tax, for what it's worth.
    • This piece by @laurenbacon on identifying girl coders & and providing opportunities them is very good. http://t.co/gfq56Ka3jR — (RT @ElissaBeth)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 0/Sixteen somewhat-less obvious ideas for how to expand the # of "unicorn" great tech startups over time -- per query by @trengriffin!
    • 1/More Montessori & Montessori-style, free-form, and/or project-based K-8 public & private schools.
    • 2/Entrepreneurship magnet/charter schools -- specifically designed to produce enterpreneurs, vs cogs in the industrial machine.
    • 3/Significantly expanded summer tech, science, math, entrepreneurship programs/camps for grades 5-12.
    • 4/Significantly expanded internship programs at tech companies of all sizes for both high school and college students.
    • 5/More interdisciplinary college programs -- particularly engineering + business, and liberal arts + engineering.
    • 6/Comprehensive inclusion programs for underrepresented groups for each of the preceding five ideas.
    • 7/More public research universities should pursue the Stanford/Berkeley mentality/model; also, repeal Bayh-Dole.
    • 8/Comprehensive legal and regulatory reform to open access to federally-funded research; also, pass Aaron's Law.
    • 9/Reform, or better yet eliminate, software and business method patents. Redefine patent trolling as a form of felony extortion.
    • 10/Fully portable economy-wide benefits, including health care, retirement savings, and immigration status.
    • 11/Eliminate tax credits for home ownership, and implement tax credits for renters.
    • 12/Implement tax credits for child care services for working parents.
    • 13/"Opt in" innovation zones with regulatory relief for various categories of new technology.
    • 14/More long-lockup capital at all levels of corporate capital structure.
    • 15/Eliminate tax credits for corporate debt, and implement tax credits for corporate equity.
    • 16/Zero capital gains tax for equity held for 5+ years, paid for by higher capital gains tax for equity held for <2 years.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @davealevine @trengriffin John Reed once told me that starting a company was a noneconomic proposition...
    • @davealevine @trengriffin ...that anyone good enough to do it could make more money on a risk-adjusted basis by just being an executive...
    • @davealevine @trengriffin ...and therefore starting a company is an irrational act. I think he was right.
    • @davealevine @trengriffin If you believe that, then we are looking for extreme personalities first and foremost...
    • @davealevine @trengriffin ...and if you believe that, then attempts to get less risk-prone people to do it won't work.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @davealevine @trengriffin People who aren't pure risk takers generally collapse under the pressure of an actual startup.
    • @davealevine @trengriffin Side note, I risk sounding too negative in these threads. I realize that...
    • @davealevine @trengriffin ...the reason is it's so important that any alternate approach overcome adverse selection & clear difficulty bar.
    • @davealevine @trengriffin Many, many attempts to solve this puzzle have crashed and burned due to unwillingness to grapple w/brutal truths.
    • @davealevine @trengriffin Including attempts in which I have been personally involved :-). YC is a very rare exception to a general rule.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @davealevine I don't think they have. See: http://t.co/moDmYmMRBo
    • @davealevine His argument would be that they took on a lot of risk over the last 20 years that just didn't happen to materialize.
    • @davealevine But in a normally functioning market, there should be no expectation for safe interest above the level of inflation.
    • @davealevine How, whether retirement funds rely on it is another question. Bad planning on their part if so.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Nivo0o0 Productivity increases, human welfare expands, capital and labor available to create new businesses and jobs.
    • @Nivo0o0 Productivity increases, human welfare expands, capital and labor available to create new businesses and jobs.
    • @Nivo0o0 Or, shorter version: The mechanism that explains why we are not all subsistence farmers today.
    • thanks @pmarca, origins of Its Alright Ma and Times They Are A-Changin, among other things, from Bob-Father himself: http://t.co/RIW5YXjlKu — (RT @DylanBaskind)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion So maybe in 10-20 years we'll be sitting here and VC + private growth will quadruple to $200B/year and I'll be in hog heaven.
    • @Noahpinion But, there will be consequences to this:
    • @Noahpinion First, two-tier market, only accredited (rich) investors and institutions will be able to invest in growth, fueling inequality.
    • @Noahpinion Second, even quadrupling VC to $200B/year is not enough to fuel job growth to compensate for what's happening on public co side.
    • @Noahpinion Third, as you point out, big projects that aren't so easy to build from scratch w/no existing assets simply won't get pursued.
    • @Noahpinion Fourth, I honestly don't know how the large pools of normal retirement capital would meet their long-run return requirements.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion Now, a lot of this is quite good for me personally, and for VC generally. Maybe even better than people currently imagine.
    • @Noahpinion Maybe effectively all new projects have to now get funded in private markets. By private capital, aka VC.
    • @Noahpinion Further, maybe all talent that wants to pursue new projects will get channeled into private companies and out of public co's.
    • @Noahpinion Further, maybe more public $ that needs long-run growth returns will redirect into private markets, further fueling VC.
    • @Noahpinion Further, maybe so much $ will cross over that VC will get full ultimate liquidity ourselves without taking companies public.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion A few short thoughts and we'll see how it goes...
    • @Noahpinion As with a lot of things, it starts with a couple of things that are actually true:
    • @Noahpinion 1 Some companies, as they age, chase growth inappropriately via diversification & acquisitions, causing ROIC to decline.
    • @Noahpinion 2 Related, some companies have a real agency problem where managers are incented to build empires even as ROIC suffers.
    • @Noahpinion So one can argue that early activists including some raiders were doing God's work in going after these problems at some co's.
    • @Noahpinion Those early activists generated high IRR, which has led to a snowballing of AUM into the activist asset class.
    • @Noahpinion That AUM must be deployed, hence many more companies are now being accused of having these problems even when they don't.
    • @Noahpinion The trick is that activism can still make money in the short term even when attacking companies that otherwise don't merit it.
    • @Noahpinion You can go into any big co, demand they slash spending, lever up, and return cash to shareholders, and make $ in the short term.
    • @Noahpinion If you are doing that, it is useful to assert that there are no profitable investment opportunities that co can possibly pursue.
    • @Noahpinion Management can put up models and projections for new projects, and you can laugh at them and say they're unproven...
    • @Noahpinion ...which of course they are unproven, they are new projects that haven't been pursued yet. And then they never get pursued.
    • @Noahpinion So then you get exactly what we're seeing now:
    • @Noahpinion Companies refusing to invest in new projects and opportunities, slashing spending, levering up, returning cash to investors.
    • @Noahpinion Systematically, short term profits prioritized over long run investments, new projects, and long-term company health.
    • @Noahpinion S&P 500 companies will distribute $1 trillion to shareholders in buybacks & dividends in 2015 -- all time record high.
    • @Noahpinion And so of course there's lagging job growth in the economy; you're now entirely reliant on new businesses to create jobs.
    • @Noahpinion Obviously I think VC is awesome, but VC is tiny compared to this -- <$50B/year vs $1T/year of buybacks & dividends.
    • @Noahpinion What squares the circle is the OTHER agency problem: institutional $ managers compensated annually & even quarterly...
    • @Noahpinion And so of course more money piles into government bonds and just sits there, dragging down interest rates further.
    • @Noahpinion ...when managing pools of assets with time horizons of several decades (various forms of retirement pools).
    • @Noahpinion I'd argue it's sugar rush capitalism. Feels great in the short term. Hangover is a bitch. Hope we like where it ends up.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @kcfaul Oh, sure. It took six months before I was sure it was really going to take.
    • @kcfaul Oh, sure. It took six months before I was sure it was really going to take.
    • @kcfaul Granted, that was pretty short given how long it usually takes, but still.
    • Value investors are arrogant = don't believe it's cheap for good reasons. Growth investors are arrogant = believe it will keep growing.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mtrichardson @ggonweb I would watch the proliferation of voice and motion UIs as well as wearable devices very carefully!
    • @mtrichardson @ggonweb Imagine, walk up to any screen, it recognizes you, up comes all your stuff, you can talk to it/wave at it & it works.
    • @mtrichardson @ggonweb Imagine, walk up to any screen, it recognizes you, up comes all your stuff, you can talk to it/wave at it & it works.
    • @mtrichardson @ggonweb Or, a tiny earpiece so you can talk and listen to a cloud-based service, plus heads-up display in glasses/contacts.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @hiltzikm @CFCamerer The view is that farm subsidies are so clearly in the national interest that nobody could possibly oppose them.
    • @hiltzikm @CFCamerer The view is that farm subsidies are so clearly in the national interest that nobody could possibly oppose them.
    • @hiltzikm @CFCamerer And yes, this view is held by the staunchest of the midwestern hard right.
    • No, this isn't spooky at all, why do you ask? http://t.co/AKKxc8tLko

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @perpetuelle I think the most informative thing is that digital watches almost killed mechanical watches, but then mech came roaring back.
    • @perpetuelle I don't think anyone buys a Patek or a Sub or a Tag because it tells the time better than a Casio watch or a smartphone.
    • @perpetuelle And so I'm not convinced smartwatches are competition to mechanical watches really at all. Very different reasons to buy/wear.
    • @perpetuelle And I for one plan to wear a "real" watch on my left wrist and an Apple watch on my right wrist :-).

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Chris_Ciaccia You wrote she said "3 yrs or more" at that time :-).
    • @Chris_Ciaccia You wrote she said "3 yrs or more" at that time :-).
    • @Chris_Ciaccia She's right about the Apple comparison in that it was over 4 years from Steve's return to the first iPod.
    • @Chris_Ciaccia Big efforts take time!

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @brianritchie @fdestin We think about it in terms of the idea maze: http://t.co/FNO8wkl8wd
    • @brianritchie @fdestin Insights that are the result of someone traversing their own idea maze, we try to not repeat in other contexts.
    • @brianritchie @fdestin But yes, easily obtainable external data points generally don't count as part of this.
    • In startups: Ideas are cheap. But successful traversals of idea mazes are highly valuable. http://t.co/FNO8wkl8wd

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @sriramk The CEO plus a few key people, open to new ideas and aggressive at pursuing them.
    • @sriramk The CEO plus a few key people, open to new ideas and aggressive at pursuing them.
    • @sriramk Dr Burda came to California right after we started Netscape and leaned way in. The American media CEOs thought we were silly.
    • @pmarca talking about many issues and nailing it Lunch with the FT: Marc Andreessen - http://t.co/EuhPhu8vre http://t.co/UaN9RKLB5Q via @FT — (RT @sammantic)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion @rodrikdani Side node, funding that's actually lacking is for $1B+ new capital intensive projects. Think Elon Musk, Peter Thiel.
    • @Noahpinion @rodrikdani Of course, most of those projects would be in regulated/entrenched industries: HC, edu, transport, energy.
    • @Noahpinion @rodrikdani Of course, most of those projects would be in regulated/entrenched industries: HC, edu, transport, energy.
    • The last time US consumer were this confident Destiny's Child were still a band. http://t.co/KvhGyzJhjW http://t.co/ZcVbYiQtit — (RT @RobinWigg)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ScottMAustin Correct. The growth part of what we do is substituting for what would have been public offerings in the past.
    • @ScottMAustin Correct. The growth part of what we do is substituting for what would have been public offerings in the past.
    • @ScottMAustin The only reason to lump them together in analysis, ignoring the changed public landscape, is to feed the bubble narrative.
    • @ScottMAustin If you do true apples to apples VC funding comparison over time, it's not actually up very much at all.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @NickatFP Sure, but price stability not needed to use Bitcoin to send/receive money -- e.g. convert $ to BTC, send, convert BTC to Euros.
    • @NickatFP And the Bitcoin platform itself has been utterly stable, didn't skip a beat when MtGox or Bitstamp got hacked.
    • @NickatFP And the Bitcoin platform itself has been utterly stable, didn't skip a beat when MtGox or Bitstamp got hacked.
    • If you missed it, here's my full response to @pmarca’s thoughtful tweetstorm on secular stagnation: http://t.co/XE8yTCVhtQ — (RT @LHSummers)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @NickatFP Exactly :-).
    • @NickatFP No prior trust relationship or intermediate third party required.
    • @NickatFP Independent of source or destination nation.
    • @NickatFP This is why I don't understand skepticism about Bitcoin. It's like magic.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @seouldan @JaffrayW @Jesse_Livermore But true that my career has been during falling rates regime.
    • @seouldan @JaffrayW @Jesse_Livermore But true that my career has been during falling rates regime.
    • @seouldan @JaffrayW @Jesse_Livermore But increasingly so has everyone else's...
    • @pmarca @trengriffin @Jesse_Livermore @BamaTrader the HIPPO (highest paid person opinion) syndrome :) — (RT @samuelgil)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Free market competition. Miners compete to process tx. Miner only needs to recoup marginal cost of mining to justify.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Also note mining highly parallel. ASICs already orders of magnitude more efficient than CPU or GPU. And improving.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Current mining dynamics changing fast. Non-ASIC miners being pushed out, can't mine economically anymore.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Ie transaction processing costs are dropping like a rock. In transition now, great longer term.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @EmanuelDerman @delong The system was designed for speculation to be the bootstrapping mechanism to get the mining network running.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Which was very clever, since it's a completely distributed system -- there's no central engine pushing it forward.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Which was very clever, since it's a completely distributed system -- there's no central engine pushing it forward.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong So speculation-driven volatility in early years mean system working as designed. This is a geniunely new approach.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BrendanNyhan I can't wait to see how this one shakes out.
    • @BrendanNyhan I can't wait to see how this one shakes out.
    • @BrendanNyhan Either way it goes, it's an absolutely amazing story.
    • This is remarkable: Informal New York City police strike continues -- http://t.co/DW3MQcs8Cc http://t.co/lSgFNc07Wl

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 11/Bitcoin was specifically designed to use speculation early on to overcome the normal chicken/egg boostrapping problem for new networks.
    • 12/Attacking Bitcoin for having speculative levels of volatility is missing the point of how the system was designed for this point in time.
    • 13/Now, yes, in the long run, BTC does need to stabilize -- which I think will happen with a combo of scale + use of derivatives (hedging).
    • 14/In the short run, Bitcoin is still highly useful as a transaction and trust network in many uses cases even with high volatility.
    • 15/For example, payment applications of BItcoin don't require users/merchants to hold BTC for any period of time. All benefits still gained.
    • 16/Further, all other uses cases of Bitcoin and the blockchain are unhampered by volatility of BTC. The system continues working just fine.
    • 17/Net net, the network boostrapping process is happening pretty much exactly as Satoshi designed and anticipated. It's a thing of beauty.
    • 18/The third critique I call the "innocent" one -- "Are there enough sufficiently compelling uses cases for Bitcoin to succeed at scale?"
    • 19/I previously identified many uses cases here http://t.co/UHQL5HQQ2O ranging from ecommerce to remittance to micropayments to anti-spam.
    • 20/Two particular areas of focus today are A use outside the US where currencies + banks are often awful, and B machine-to-machine payments.
    • 21/At our venture firm, we continue to see an escalating stream of fascinating new Bitcoin uses cases and applications from entrepeneurs.
    • 22/In addition, there are entirely new vistas of technological creativity opening up, such as sidechains http://t.co/KLLKVtr6dE.
    • 23/The price of BTC has very little to do with the level of creativity of thinking that's going into new Bitcoin apps, or their usefulness.
    • 24/By loose analogy, the price of domain names didn't determine the usefulness of the Internet. This is a broad-based technology phenomenon.
    • 26/Final thought: The entire Bitcoin system is 6 years old. TCP/IP was 6 years old in 1981. Big things take time. Onward!
    • 25/What to watch in 2015: New apps, new use cases, international adoption, consumer education, technological innovation & spinoff ideas!

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Some thoughts on the state of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and distributed transaction and trust networks at start of 2015!
    • 2/A year ago I articulated my views on Bitcoin in the New York Times, and I wouldn't change a word today: http://t.co/2yuRx724ZJ
    • 3/Over the last several months of 2014, there were three Bitcoin counter-narratives that I will describe and analyze:
    • 4/First, what I call the "dumb" critique: "Bitcoin BTC currency price dropped to below $300, proving Bitcoin is a stupid idea."
    • 5/Same class of critics slamming BTC for price falling in 2014 were slamming BTC for price rising in 2013. Only consistency is the slamming.
    • 6/Further, the critique that BTC is bad because it was down in 2014 changes completely if one uses a 2-year window instead of 1-year window.
    • 7/BTC was below $14 in Jan 2013. If 1-year performance has been disappointing, 2-year performance has been spectacular.
    • 8/As a general rule, arguments that rely on cherry-picking specific date windows are not very good arguments.
    • 9/The second critique I call "smarter": "BTC is too volatile -- it goes up and down too much and so cannot be used as a store of value."
    • 10/This is largely correct at the moment, and yet misses most of the point of Bitcoin as a distributed transaction and trust network.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @pbreit @mdudas @jyarow @cdixon Depends how you want to use it. To send/receive BTC currency, need to own for 10 min or less.
    • @pbreit @mdudas @jyarow @cdixon Depends how you want to use it. To send/receive BTC currency, need to own for 10 min or less.
    • @pbreit @mdudas @jyarow @cdixon To use blockchain for other purposes, may only need to own tiny amount.
    • Elapsed time from first test of TCP/IP to Netscape IPO: 20 years. Big things take time.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ianbremmer It's still unclear what the correlations between R&D input ($) and output (innovation) actually are.
    • @ianbremmer It's still unclear what the correlations between R&D input ($) and output (innovation) actually are.
    • @ianbremmer Often, as companies age, an inverse correlation seems to set in.
    • Economists find that, no surprise, mobile phones and social media have helped food trucks succeed. http://t.co/d1e5JWCyFm — (RT @amcafee)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @amcafee Thanks, that's great.
    • @amcafee Someone could write a whole book on countries that could do all those things but choose not to, despite wanting tech industry.
    • @amcafee Someone could write a whole book on countries that could do all those things but choose not to, despite wanting tech industry.
    • Download "Permissionless Innovation" free and learn what drives the future of #innovation http://t.co/aapjCkSKms — (RT @mercatus)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @kearneysean I can only imagine the science is too difficult.
    • @kearneysean But I agree. Batteries are probably the single biggest limiter to all of tech broadly right now.
    • @kearneysean But I agree. Batteries are probably the single biggest limiter to all of tech broadly right now.
    • @BlackDeveraux @pmarca @robzepeda @BenedictEvans ah so Tesco is making a 100% margin off retailing Chinese smartphones in Thailand! — (RT @myprak)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @delong The psychological scarring from the twin crises (00 & 08) runs extremely deep.
    • @delong Stock market gains since 09 have been accompanied by fear verging on panic the whole way up.
    • @delong Stock market gains since 09 have been accompanied by fear verging on panic the whole way up.
    • Tesco in Thailand is selling dual core smartphones running Android 4.4 for ~$50 USD cc @BenedictEvans @pmarca http://t.co/z6Ao1ETK9H — (RT @robzepeda)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BiotechPolicyUK @simonbayly @EconBizFin It always does. The exact same panic happens over and over again.
    • @BiotechPolicyUK @simonbayly @EconBizFin It always does. The exact same panic happens over and over again.
    • @BiotechPolicyUK @simonbayly @EconBizFin p.s. Current slow productivity growth refutes the thesis of the original article.
    • Nice #data tool from #Pew: Origins and Destinations of the World’s #Migrants, 1990-2013 http://t.co/IhdBoaRs5l — (RT @MEDevEcon)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @zaw56 @Noahpinion That's not what I'm getting at. What I mean is that there's near zero understanding of even the basics.
    • @zaw56 @Noahpinion That's not what I'm getting at. What I mean is that there's near zero understanding of even the basics.
    • @zaw56 @Noahpinion One view = people are stupid and uneducated. Another = econ field completely failing at public education.
    • @zaw56 @Noahpinion Which is the setup to my answer to the original question.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @bookmeister A lot of other US health indicators got better over that time period, not worse.
    • @bookmeister Glaeser seems to be implying that there may be a widespread disability benefits fraud issue in the US. (I have no idea.)
    • @bookmeister Glaeser seems to be implying that there may be a widespread disability benefits fraud issue in the US. (I have no idea.)
    • The "our new senior hire is a messiah" problem http://t.co/BWQOGlix1h via @ciaranoleary — (RT @gdibner)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @catlin201 It's more true in Western Europe broadly than the US, but it's also the case in the US.
    • @catlin201 Modern banking regulations that insulate incumbents from new market entrants highly effectively.
    • 1/Wrapping up my series on the secular stagnation theory with some more things I learned along the way. Again, filter on #stag as desired.
    • 2/Arguments vs Gordon's tech stagnation thesis by @B_Eichengreen (attached) and @billjaneway: http://t.co/SFP98dPmKV http://t.co/xsODikQa2O
    • 3/At some point Europe is going to either need a lot more immigrants or a lot more robots: http://t.co/WBN0JhdkBw
    • 4/Edward Glaeser: "Who would really be indifferent between earning $23K in 1984 vs $50K in 2014?" #stag http://t.co/JuTNptO2BH
    • 5/Glaeser: Before modern industrial capitalism, innovation and trade mainly benefitted the elite. #stag http://t.co/gqiQNtB1K6
    • 6/Glaeser: Startling rise in reported disabillity rates among working-age Americans over last 50 years. #stag http://t.co/lpHZifVm2H
    • 7/Glaeser: 72.7% of US college grads ages 25+ are employed, vs 39.4% of high school dropouts in same cohort. #stag
    • 8/I'd like to quote Mokyr's entire essay in the Vox ebook but that would be rude, so read the whole thing here: http://t.co/KUAhYLuUxM #stag
    • 9/Nicholas Crafts: Boy, is Europe in trouble. #stag http://t.co/7ggNJjKCCx
    • 10/Nicholas Crafts: Europe badly needs to step up technology adoption and productivity growth. #stag http://t.co/KEejDuML1D
    • 11/Olivier Blanchard: Post-crisis reforms require financial institutions to hold another $3 trillion in safe assets. (!) #stat
    • 12/Blanchard: China savings pattern is opposite of normal assumption, due to poor social insurance programs. #stag http://t.co/Fv5o4ZHun4
    • 13/Koo: Those who prevent crises never become heroes, so at least give the impending threat a great name! #stag http://t.co/dBwZifjZX0
    • 14/Reference for all of the above: http://t.co/KUAhYLuUxM. #stag @pmarca out!

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @monkbent There's next to no technological content in a Nike sneaker, and what there is changes virtually not at all over time.
    • @monkbent Hence virtually all of Nike's product differentiation is in intangible characteristics distinct from the actual product, the shoe.
    • @monkbent Whereas in tech, all the branding/marketing/experience in the world won't help you if you get lapped by technology change.
    • @monkbent Therefore the experience of Motorola, Nokia, RIM, et al in handsets, all of whom had huge marketing budgets at their peaks.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @John_Hempton @munilass @levie Yep. Particularly with lots of local generation of solar etc.
    • @John_Hempton @munilass @levie And if some new energy storage technologies under development work out...
    • @John_Hempton @munilass @levie And if some new energy storage technologies under development work out...
    • Greek patience with austerity nears its limit while #Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio at record. http://t.co/cQlCfbpsBu http://t.co/0E6nhMxCxk — (RT @Schuldensuehner)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ultimape Yep! Agree.
    • @ultimape Engineers building something for themselves (as users) is the optimal case.
    • @ultimape Engineers building something for themselves (as users) is the optimal case.
    • One in 7 residents in Detroit's Wayne County face foreclosure from unpaid property taxes http://t.co/EUNgVH4pPd http://t.co/JYcuCTPKZN — (RT @NickTimiraos)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A few tentative conclusions on secular stagnation & our economy, with vigorous disclaimer that I am far from a macroeconomist... #stag
    • 2/It seems a core dynamic of our times is too much capital relative to the number of productive investible economic opportunities. #stag
    • 3/Coupled with a massive global capital flight to quality since 2008, hard to see interest rates rising dramatically anytime soon. #stag
    • 4/While I am a bull on technological progress, it also seems that much of that progress is price deflationary in nature...
    • 5/...so even extremely rapid tech progress may not show up in GDP or productivity stats, even as it = higher real standards of living. #stag
    • 6/I think economists, particularly on the center-left and left, are really underestimating 2 factors that are inhibiting investment. #stag
    • 7/In developed world, sheer level of regulatory burden on business formation and growth. Per George McGovern: http://t.co/jqEQdPiWgp #stag
    • 8/On this point I agree deeply with @peterthiel: Many sectors of Western business are now wired to prevent or inhibit new investment. #stag
    • 9/In the developing world, often brutally high levels of corruption and expropriation, making new investment extremely risky. #stag
    • 10/It seems straightforward to identify ways to increase rate of investment, and also hard to see how any of that politically happens. #stag
    • 11/For these and other reasons, we may be living with an oversupply of capital relative to opportunity set for a long time. #stag
    • 12/But this is not necessarily a terrible world to live in. In fact, it might be a wonderful world to live in, for these reasons: #stag
    • 13/Oversupply of capital means that any investable project can get funded. We see that today in tech, and it may broaden from here. #stag
    • 14/We may experience a massive global demographic tailwind, as huge # of young people worldwide are fully connected to modern economy. #stag
    • 15/Virtuous cycle of science & tech advances, with fast-growing # of scientists & technologists globally, may overwhelm expectations. #stag
    • 16/In this world, we can have massive advances in real standards of living even w/formally low investment, GDP, & productivity growth. #stag
    • 17/Beyond that, a world where 7 billion people decide they really do want and deserve an upper-middle-class Amercan-equiv lifestyle... #stag
    • 18/...may make all of these current stagnation theories look as silly as Alvin "Secular Stagnation" Hansen now looks 76 years later. #stag

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @thogge Roughly yes. Maybe more "VC is sub-S&P500 return w/ far higher risk overall, but top 5-10 firms do extremely well over full cycles."
    • @thogge David Swensen, probably the leading venture LP of his generation, talks about this in his book: http://t.co/YyRzkjxOJ6
    • 1/An excellent survey of the original "secular stagnation" thesis of Alvin Hansen in 1938 by @TimothyTTaylor http://t.co/KAi72rRNgb #stag
    • 2/Hansen's 1938 thesis will sound familiar to post-2008 ears: #stag http://t.co/I2FctorPLw
    • 3/We know now Hansen in 1938 was thoroughly wrong. For example, he totally whiffed on population projections. #stag http://t.co/MklTZhxve1
    • 4/Hansen was also completely wrong on the rate of technological progress at that time. #stag http://t.co/vVxV7RsyHx
    • 5/However, he did issue a ringing call for new technologies and new industries that applies equally to today. #stag http://t.co/I7bLm5bO5G
    • Another interesting critique of secular stagnation, this time from the left (@dsquareddigest): http://t.co/eOSEYHvAJK

    7 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Now, thinking about a counterargument to Larry Summers' "secular stagnation" thesis from @DavidBeckworth #stag http://t.co/moDmYn4sJs
    • 2/First point: Prior risk premium in bonds warped prices+yields, made credit artifically expensive in the past. #stag http://t.co/EbJwpDYydq
    • 3/Risk prem boosted by high inflation, so lower inflation reduced rate TWO ways, lower inflation & lower risk. #stag http://t.co/Mn20krtbDS
    • 5/With low risk of future extreme inflation, real interest rate bounces along around 2%, as it should. #stag http://t.co/5w3yXj5AN6
    • 4/Decomposing interest rate from underlying inflation expectation + risk premium; both came down since 80s. #stag http://t.co/9ynJZvr3Zd

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 15/Lingering question from Larry Summers' secular stagnation thesis: #stag http://t.co/8p66PvNWfk
    • 16/Doesn't the same question apply for the past 100 years? Has the American economy ever met that criteria? #stag http://t.co/HtHXpB9FPS
    • 17/Can the goal be to get to normal if there is no normal? Or should the goal be something else? #stag
    • 17/Can the goal be to get to normal if there is no normal? Or should the goal be something else? #stag

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @stevesi Thesis as stated seems US/Europe centric.
    • @stevesi Although real interest rates do seem to be coming down worldwide over time: http://t.co/1VPAST1HYZ
    • @stevesi Although real interest rates do seem to be coming down worldwide over time: http://t.co/1VPAST1HYZ
    • @pmarca I recommend work of Carlota Perez - her thesis is pervasive low yield = indicative of major shift in dominant productive forces. — (RT @prestonjbyrne)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @davealevine Larry and others more recently arguing secular stagnation applies more to Europe than the US.
    • @davealevine However, the thesis remains interesting to the extent that the underlying capital supply/demand balance continues.
    • @davealevine However, the thesis remains interesting to the extent that the underlying capital supply/demand balance continues.
    • @pmarca the easiest counter argument (of many) is timing. Recent data shows the economy accelerating. We're only recently out of the crisis. — (RT @davealevine)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Thinking about Larry Summers' "secular stagnation" thesis -- if the topic bores you, filter out hashtag #stag for a bit :-). #stag
    • 2/@B_Eichengreen: "Secular stagnation is an economist’s Rorschach Test. It means different things to different people.” #stag
    • 3/Contrary to a lot of public discussion, Larry's thesis is about interest rates and supply/demand of capital, not technology change. #stag
    • 4/Core to secular stagnation is "substantial decline in natural real rate of interest". #stag http://t.co/kW9AIMrxZC http://t.co/uKkoRb7zU1
    • 5/Factor 1: Reduced demand for debt-financed investment, in part due to changing nature of economic activity. #stag http://t.co/E3gbtkqQaJ
    • 6/Factor 2: Declining rate of population growth, especially if one corrects for education levels. #stag http://t.co/VEZGM8RrOu
    • 7/Factor 3: Increased societal propensity to save + Increased corporate retained earnings. #stag http://t.co/RXrCFD2kck
    • 9/Factor 5: Arithmetic relationship between lower pre-tax and after-tax real interest rates. #stag http://t.co/oqh5vMuwb2
    • 10/Factor 6: Growing central bank reserves of safe assets, particularly US Treasuries. #stag http://t.co/ATM7tGCjz7
    • 11/Result: Substantial and continuing decilne in real interest rates over 50 years. #stag http://t.co/8o30RkZkg9
    • 12/To quote Notorious BIG, "mo money mo problems" -- in this case, mo money, not enough productive places & projects to put it. #stag
    • 13/As economists do, Larry then proposes a series of reforms to address the dynamic, few of which seem politically likely. #stag
    • 14/References: http://t.co/kW9AIMrxZC http://t.co/KUAhYLuUxM http://t.co/wma6y5P1TQ #stag
    • 15/Lingering question from Larry Summers' secular stagnation thesis: #stag http://t.co/8p66PvNWfk
    • 16/Doesn't the same question apply for the past 100 years? Has the American economy ever met that criteria? #stag http://t.co/HtHXpB9FPS
    • 17/Can the goal be to get to normal if there is no normal? Or should the goal be something else? #stag

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Thinking about Larry Summers' "secular stagnation" thesis -- if the topic bores you, filter out hashtag #stag for a bit :-). #stag
    • 2/@B_Eichengreen: "Secular stagnation is an economist’s Rorschach Test. It means different things to different people.” #stag
    • 3/Contrary to a lot of public discussion, Larry's thesis is about interest rates and supply/demand of capital, not technology change. #stag
    • 4/Core to secular stagnation is "substantial decline in natural real rate of interest". #stag http://t.co/kW9AIMrxZC http://t.co/uKkoRb7zU1
    • 5/Factor 1: Reduced demand for debt-financed investment, in part due to changing nature of economic activity. #stag http://t.co/E3gbtkqQaJ
    • 6/Factor 2: Declining rate of population growth, especially if one corrects for education levels. #stag http://t.co/VEZGM8RrOu
    • 8/Factor 4: Decline in relative prices of business & consumer capital goods (tech-driven price deflation?). #stag http://t.co/AY2PKVkoFD
    • 7/Factor 3: Increased societal propensity to save + Increased corporate retained earnings. #stag http://t.co/RXrCFD2kck

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @azizonomics Along with complete acknowledgement of the resulting problem. Zero intention to resolve.
    • @azizonomics I know that's what they'd say right now anyway, but I'm still inclined to take them at their word.
    • @azizonomics I know that's what they'd say right now anyway, but I'm still inclined to take them at their word.
    • Falling demand only appears to account for half of the drop in the oil price. I would have guessed much more. http://t.co/0nAEufQ1Re — (RT @Noahpinion)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 6/The global savings glut after the 2000 equity market crash, and the low interest rates that followed: http://t.co/eYsV2AanGG
    • 7/The oddness of developing countries investing in developed countries rather than the other way around: http://t.co/DqNsxgNtLI
    • 9/There it is: http://t.co/h7ZYPrNeI4
    • 10/On global current account deficits and surpluses after Bernanke 2005 and the 2008 financial crisis: http://t.co/1KcZGCVSPS
    • 12/Even after developed world financial crisis, developing world still invests much more in developed countries than vice versa.
    • 14/How would global capital flows look if all countries treated capital as well as the US does? (Not that we lack issues, to be sure.)
    • 13/Like Bernanke, I believe in Wriston's Law: "Capital will go where it is wanted and stay where it is well treated." http://t.co/sW40jeY5Li

    7 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Considering the Bernanke "global savings glut" hypothesis from 2005 -- what holds up, what doesn't: http://t.co/ZHXTSIdvkj
    • 2/Ah, the good old days of 2005, when the major US macroeconomic concern was the trade deficit: http://t.co/A1lsv38viF
    • 3/The global savings glut thesis: http://t.co/T8OiLxYjWc
    • 4/Global savings glut in rich countries with aging populations, which run trade surpluses and invest abroad: http://t.co/Xy8UtRLKNd
    • 5/The role of financial crises in causing developing world countries to invest more abroad: http://t.co/iwzIexiF1J
    • 6/The global savings glut after the 2000 equity market crash, and the low interest rates that followed: http://t.co/eYsV2AanGG
    • 7/The oddness of developing countries investing in developed countries rather than the other way around: http://t.co/DqNsxgNtLI

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @moorehn Just read https://t.co/sdFfl0hGla which is a dry 1890 economics text, except where he sidebars a detailed disquisition on the Jews.
    • @moorehn Related, per the recent New Republic kerfuffle, googling "Herbert Croly eugenics" is an eye-opener.
    • @moorehn Related, per the recent New Republic kerfuffle, googling "Herbert Croly eugenics" is an eye-opener.
    • Guys what's a good biography on Modi to recommend to someone who doesn't know India/Indian politics well? — (RT @tejus_sawjiani)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @zaid I think there are two scenarios.
    • @zaid One is where you choose to build a services organization. There is some risk of disincenting good software, but it can be managed.
    • @zaid The other is when new customers stop buying as much of your software & you need services to make up the revenue gap.
    • Astonishing new picture of 1km high cliff on comet #67P @ESA_Rosetta http://t.co/WGsNdL6RV2 http://t.co/SwbdxIWQ0J — (RT @davidshukmanbbc)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • The argument in favor of the 1930s as a technological innovation boom. #glf http://t.co/2UdmNrb0sm
    • 1930s as the decade in which industrial-scale Research & Development fully arrived. #glf http://t.co/S3LKVJkcyA
    • 1930s as decade when the technologies for scaled surface road transportation & distribution fully arrived. #glf http://t.co/Xsl2AAvVki
    • 1930s as decade when the technologies for modern housing at scale fully arrived. #glf http://t.co/h3ZOozinnn
    • 1930s as the decade in which modern physical networks crystallized: transportation, distribution, & more. #glf http://t.co/3AlWA0doqV
    • 1930s US built its first national road network -- and probably would have with or without the Depression. #glf http://t.co/e1SvLarxFO
    • The 1930s version of network buildout was the modern surface transportation & distribution network. #glf http://t.co/g4xd4exOea
    • Tweetshotting from "A Great Leap Forward" by Alexander Field--I HIGHLY recommend it for understanding our times. http://t.co/8dyhCHZMs4 #glf

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Over the last 2 days I've been tweetshotting excerpts from David Wells, "Recent Economic Changes", 1890: https://t.co/814vpfqcBH
    • 2/For background reading on the economic period of ~1870-1890: http://t.co/EPbpyeRK8H http://t.co/zGLTrtpCBA
    • 3/This period is not a direct historical analog to ours, but it's probably as close an analog as there is, along with the 1920s-1930s.
    • 4/Each of the three periods struggled with serious macroeconomic crises, albeit substantially different natures. Hard to compare those.
    • 5/People of that time did wonder the same questions that are being so frequently asked today:
    • 7/What is the future of income and wealth distribution and returns from progress -- for labor and for capital?
    • 8/How do present changes compare to those in the past, and what can be forecast about the changes yet to come?
    • 9/What kind of world are we building, and what kind of world will we leave for our children and grandchildren?
    • 10/Wells, writing in 1890, would have been wholly gobsmacked at the widely distributed gains of the next 100 years! http://t.co/5mE6cUfYlF
    • 11/It may not surprise you that I think we are going to repeat what Brad describes in http://t.co/5mE6cUfYlF in this century again.
    • 12/But, we actually have to prove it, and do it.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Over the last 2 days I've been tweetshotting excerpts from David Wells, "Recent Economic Changes", 1890: https://t.co/814vpfqcBH
    • 2/For background reading on the economic period of ~1870-1890: http://t.co/EPbpyeRK8H http://t.co/zGLTrtpCBA
    • 3/This period is not a direct historical analog to ours, but it's probably as close an analog as there is, along with the 1920s-1930s.
    • 4/Each of the three periods struggled with serious macroeconomic crises, albeit substantially different natures. Hard to compare those.
    • 6/What is the nature of technology-driven economic change and creative disruption?
    • 5/People of that time did wonder the same questions that are being so frequently asked today:

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jonfortt She does tie a lot of it to decline of agriculture as a primary sector for entrepreneurship, but not all of it.
    • @jonfortt She does tie a lot of it to decline of agriculture as a primary sector for entrepreneurship, but not all of it.
    • @jonfortt She also fingers the great northern migration as disrupting existing support networks.
    • @jonfortt She also discusses the "Buy Black" movement around 1900.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @WeberWest @jacobwe @mathewi The big Internet companies make hard choices in this domain every single day.
    • @WeberWest @jacobwe @mathewi Each country has its own laws and government actions, and lots of power to impose those laws/actions.
    • @WeberWest @jacobwe @mathewi Pulling out, or getting kicked out, is always an option but it's a one-way door. Can't reverse and go back in.
    • @WeberWest @jacobwe @mathewi Real questions about what's better for people in each country: compromise & be present, or be pure & pull out.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @seehafer Conventional view is progress died in the 30s and then got restarted by the war. Field argues essentially the opposite.
    • @seehafer Field argues huge surge of latent productivity in 30s due to rollout of transportation & communication networks. & WWII was waste.
    • @seehafer So 1945-1950s was payoff from all the advances in the 1930s whose impact had been held back by the economic depression.
    • @seehafer And that had WWII not happened, not only would US have recovered in 1940s, but would have recovered even stronger without war.
    • It’s ironic that many blast Washington politicians by saying they’re “anti-business.” Many are very pro-business — but anti-competition. — (RT @arthurbrooks)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BenedictEvans Yep.
    • @BenedictEvans Yep.
    • @BenedictEvans Yuri Milner & Alexander Tamas used to argue the other difference was non-US Internet co's had to monetize faster.
    • @BenedictEvans ...So non-US Internet companies were much more aggressive & pragmatic about adding $-generating functions to IM & SN prods.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Fascinating overview of the secular stagnation hypothesis from the Bank of Italy (in English): https://t.co/rfnHkupv2o
    • 2/"After reviewing recent long-run projections, we argue that similar warnings were issued in the past after all deep recessions."
    • 3/"Interestingly, pessimistic predictions turned out to be wrong neither because they were built on erroneous theories or data..."
    • 4/"...nor because they failed to predict new tech, but because they underestimated the potential of the technologies that already existed."
    • 5/"These findings suggest that today we should not make the same mistake and undervalue the effects of information technology."
    • 6/This matches my personal belief: Much current economic commentary is result of living through a 15 year down cycle, which will change.
    • 7/Interestingly, our friend Larry Summers on CNBC today conceded secular stagnation may be more a Europe/Japan issue than a US issue.
    • 8/If the US economy is indeed at the front of a broad-based recovery, as it appears, it will be interesting to see where this issue lands.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BenedictEvans Have you seen "Pineapple Express"?
    • @BenedictEvans Have you seen "Pineapple Express"?
    • @BenedictEvans We might need to have a viewing party.
    • Buffett describing "the institutional imperative" — one of the hardest problems to guard against: http://t.co/oWQQdYE64K — (RT @EdBorgato)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @datarade @balajis We have a whole theory/story around that for us but I'd take us out of it when thinking about the broader questions...
    • @datarade @balajis Historically persistence of returns by top firms = some combo of high competence + pattern of repeating deal flow.
    • @datarade @balajis Two big factors have really dominated historically.
    • @datarade @balajis One is that founders tend to go to the VCs they already know, often the ones who funded co's they worked at in the past.
    • @datarade @balajis The other is VC brand halo for early-stage startup very useful for recruiting, early customer acq, & subsequent funding.
    • @datarade @balajis The combo of factors resulted in it being more or less a no brainer for founders to prefer a few top firms in all cases.
    • @datarade @balajis The big debate in the industry today is which of these thing are changing: deal flow patterns & founder preferences.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BlairReeves @fmanjoo The general idea is old. The way Mixpanel has implemented it is new and extremely impressive.
    • @BlairReeves @fmanjoo Worth remembering, almost all ideas in our industry are old. But there are big leaps forward in making them work.
    • @BlairReeves @fmanjoo Worth remembering, almost all ideas in our industry are old. But there are big leaps forward in making them work.
    • @BlairReeves @fmanjoo The proof is in the pudding. The more sophisticated and up-to-speed the developers, the higher odds they use Mixpanel.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @fmanjoo @a16z A very large % of the best new Internet companies use their service to track & analyze user behavior on mobile & web.
    • @fmanjoo @a16z A very large % of the best new Internet companies use their service to track & analyze user behavior on mobile & web.
    • @fmanjoo @a16z They are expanding out from that foothold to other customer categories, use cases, and features/benefits for analytics.
    • @fmanjoo @a16z The long-term goal they are going after is prediction of future user behavior from current analytics. Incredibly valuable.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Today, we @a16z are proud to announce we are leading a new inside growth round for Mixpanel: http://t.co/ZkQy0FxmLh
    • 2/Mixpanel, led by @Suhail Doshi, is one of our fastest-revenue-growth companies, and has been profitable since we invested 3 yrs ago.
    • 3/In fact, Mixpanel is unusual in that the new investment round will not go to accelerating growth, opening int'l offices, or the like.
    • 4/Mixpanel generates cash internally to fully fund continued expansion of its current business. Rather, Suhail has more ambitious goals.
    • 5/We originally invested in Mixpanel because it makes state-of-the-art mobile/web analytics easy for every company in the world.
    • 6/Mixpanel lets you track actions not just pageviews (The smartest entrepreneurs pitching us were showing us their data thru a MP dashboard)
    • 7/The broader goal: Help the world learn from its data -- to bring data science to every domain, to fundamentally improve how things work.
    • 8/Mixpanel will use the new financing to build new products, acquire, break into new markets -- and take crazy risks that may work or fail.
    • 9/Mixpanel will go straight after the goal of predicting the future with data -- what we think is the next phase of analytics.
    • 10/And always, Mixpanel will be about merging the best of what machines can do with the best of what people can do: processing + judgment.
    • 11/We're thrilled to double down on our support of Suhail and the Mixpanel team. Follow them at @Mixpanel and @Suhail!

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @thomaspower Yep.
    • @thomaspower That was also around the time that businesses started to become computerized in the modern sense.
    • @thomaspower The 80s brought minicomputers and then Unix servers, RDBs, business apps, LANs, office productivity to business...
    • @thomaspower The tipoff is that reported productivity growth has been relatively low throughout. Explainable via escalating price deflation.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BenedictEvans Another one?
    • @BenedictEvans Another one?
    • @BenedictEvans We're now entering year 10 of these. Have seen, I think, zero mea culpas so far.
    • Double-shoulder level amputee using robotic prosthetic limbs. Amazing. https://t.co/ajz6EkPnsQ — (RT @andrewtrabulsi)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @MaxCRoser How much is inventor incented by fluid access to ex ante network vs incented by prospect of ex post patent monopoly?
    • @MaxCRoser This is what we are seeing in software. The former overwhelmingly dominates the latter.
    • @MaxCRoser This is what we are seeing in software. The former overwhelmingly dominates the latter.
    • The ruble had a good day. Don’t expect it to last. Good @JHWeissmann explainer. http://t.co/fiLIPyuGqO — (RT @ObsoleteDogma)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @nachkari Toronto/Waterloo is very fertile/promising. There is the clear potential for great things there.
    • @nachkari In my view needs a little more of everything. A little more talent, a little more money, a few more successes, a little more time.
    • @nachkari Very close. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Toronto/Waterloo grows a lot as a startup hub over the next 10 years.
    • @nachkari Parenthetically, RIM going down will probably turn out to be helpful. Freeing up lots of talent, even if it's not fun for now.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @kairyssdal @Steve_Katz @raju @mathewi As I think more about it, I like this idea. May need some regulatory reform/relief to do it.
    • @kairyssdal @Steve_Katz @raju @mathewi Ideally want to let people freely lend to nonprofits or hybrid co's, specifically or by category.
    • @kairyssdal @Steve_Katz @raju @mathewi Could run like a reverse dutch auction, maybe -- bid by knocking points off interest rate.
    • @kairyssdal @Steve_Katz @raju @mathewi Ideally would get tax deduction for reduced interest rate same as straight charitable contribution.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dandrezner So there are a series of nested questions...
    • @dandrezner 1. Is it possible for anyone to transform TNR from a nonprofit to a for-profit without losing what makes it special?
    • @dandrezner 2. If it is possible, then is the quote-unquote Silicon Valley playbook a viable path to do that?
    • @dandrezner 3. If the SV playbook could work, then do these two individuals have the experiences + skills required for the SV playbook?
    • @dandrezner 4. If they do, then what roles can/should the leaders & staff of the existing institution play in the new plan, from both sides?

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @EdwardAndLarkin @amcafee Right, that's a good way to look at it.
    • @EdwardAndLarkin @amcafee Right, that's a good way to look at it.
    • @EdwardAndLarkin @amcafee Simplified, kind of like how manufacturing chain works. There's always a bottleneck, but it moves.
    • Falling yen, now at seven-year low, stirs debate in Japan http://t.co/pcQ2JqrkUx — (RT @pdacosta)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Glaeser: One-stop permitting for entrepreneurs #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • "What I'd like to see is a city-by-city ease of starting a business index" #CatoGrowth Yes. This. One of the best things for local gov. — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Mayors value being seen as an entrepreneurial city. All the more reason to give them more power. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Need to devolve as much as possible to cities to get reform. National politicians unaccountable, local are. #CatoGrowth #politics — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Accountability for regulation is key. Lots more evaluation of budget items, not of regulations. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Congress gets best of both world, gets to claim regulatory wins, blame agencies for failures. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Set up a regulatory improvement commission says @MichaelMandel #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Important to remember: Silicon Valley is 3% of GDP. It can't save us. #CatoGrowth #tech #SiliconValley — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Educating people to appreciate adventure and creativity matters for innovation. @EdmundPhelps #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Corporatist attitudes and norms lead to rampant social protection, and less innovation. @EdmundPhelps #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Glaeser: One-stop permitting for entrepreneurs #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • "What I'd like to see is a city-by-city ease of starting a business index" #CatoGrowth Yes. This. One of the best things for local gov. — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Mayors value being seen as an entrepreneurial city. All the more reason to give them more power. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Need to devolve as much as possible to cities to get reform. National politicians unaccountable, local are. #CatoGrowth #politics — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Accountability for regulation is key. Lots more evaluation of budget items, not of regulations. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Congress gets best of both world, gets to claim regulatory wins, blame agencies for failures. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Set up a regulatory improvement commission says @MichaelMandel #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Bhide: Nondestructive creation is important, too. Airplanes did not displace cars #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Bhide: It is this his "new want innovation" that absorbs resources released by creative destrcution #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Bhide: Total factor productivity is bad measure of innovation. Ignores value captured by consumers #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Bhide: Value of new products serving new wants poorly captured by current econ stats #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Bhide: Worried about regulation impact on US dynamism, favor large biz and suppress small biz #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • John Haltiwanger: "There is no doubt" US economic dynamism is in decline #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Haltiwanger: "Much lower levels of dynamism and fluidity" in the US labor market #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Haltiwanger: Declining entrepreneurship could mean less effective implementation of innovations #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Haltiwanger: Less dynamism bad for growth, innovation, and young workers trying to build careers #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @erikbryn: long tradition of pessimism during economic downturns #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • @erikbryn innovation is combinatorial. more brains globally connected to global info network #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Gordon vs @erikbryn sounds like an accountant vs. a venture capitalist #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Gordon vs @erikbryn sounds like an accountant vs. a venture capitalist #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Few intellectual concepts in our time have been mangled by observers more than Clay Christensen's disruption idea. Some thoughts:
    • 2/CC: "A disruptive innovation gives new consumers access to product historically only available to consumers with a lot of money or skill."
    • 3/CC: "Disruptors offer a different set of product attributes valued only in new markets remote from, and unimportant to, the mainstream."
    • 4/The key attribute of disruptive innovation is a new product for a previously underserved market--typically cheaper than existing product.
    • 5/This is inherently pro-consumer: Disruptive innovation only works if customers buy it--and if they do, lives improved vs prior status quo.
    • 7/It's a fabricated myth that disruptive innovation is about destruction: It's about creation--new products, new choices, for more people.
    • 8/Later, of course, new product often evolves to squarely take on incumbents serving established customers--cheaper & better for them too!
    • 9/Disruptive innovation shrinks inequality, by bringing to lower-income consumers things that only richer consumers had access to before.
    • 10/If you are reading this, many of the things you own that make your life better are the result of prior disruptive innovation.
    • 11/Printing press disrupted books from scribes; recorded music disrupted live concerts in homes, washing machines disrupted live-in maids.
    • 12/Rich people always had books, music, clean clothes, etc.; disruptive innovation made these things available to many more people.
    • 13/In exact same way, sub-$50 smartphones as disruptive innovation to PCs bringing computing & Internet to far more people than status quo.
    • 14/To be FOR disruption is to be FOR consumer choice, FOR more people bring served, and FOR shrinking inequality.
    • 15/To be AGAINST disruption is to be AGAINST consumer choice, AGAINST more people bring served, and AGAINST shrinking inequality.
    • 16/If we want to make the world a better and more equal place--the more Christensen-style disruption, and the faster, the better!
    • 17/References: http://t.co/9dbASWMYgt, http://t.co/IZnvsmiQ71, http://t.co/9L6ZKjiAgS
    • @pmarca: Summarized: Cheaper luxury/essentials + Wide accessibility + Better job creation = Disruption — (RT @startuployalist)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Few intellectual concepts in our time have been mangled by observers more than Clay Christensen's disruption idea. Some thoughts:
    • 2/CC: "A disruptive innovation gives new consumers access to product historically only available to consumers with a lot of money or skill."
    • 3/CC: "Disruptors offer a different set of product attributes valued only in new markets remote from, and unimportant to, the mainstream."
    • 4/The key attribute of disruptive innovation is a new product for a previously underserved market--typically cheaper than existing product.
    • 6/Similar, disruptive innovation is only funded by investors who believe underserved market exists, customers will buy it, lives improved.
    • 5/This is inherently pro-consumer: Disruptive innovation only works if customers buy it--and if they do, lives improved vs prior status quo.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @pegobry @JimPethokoukis A little more problematic than that. Breaking Baumol's cost disease -> reduce relative employment in those sectors.
    • @pegobry @JimPethokoukis BTW I am all in favor of it (fixing Baumol for edu & HC) -- we're increasingly working on that at our firm.
    • @pegobry @JimPethokoukis BTW I am all in favor of it (fixing Baumol for edu & HC) -- we're increasingly working on that at our firm.
    • "The space between 'starving artist' and 'rich and famous' is beginning to collapse." https://t.co/pqv9nxkkWl http://t.co/wKVJuRe8V1 — (RT @cdixon)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jayrosen_nyu @DevinHaran There is arguably one narrow field of investing where being a pure contrarian is a good strategy...
    • @jayrosen_nyu @DevinHaran ...running a portfolio of lots of small positions in deep out of the money call options (e.g. tech angel).
    • @jayrosen_nyu @DevinHaran Described conceptually very well in @nntaleb's book "Antifragility".
    • @jayrosen_nyu @DevinHaran @nntaleb But otherwise, selective contrarianism probably works better.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @lhon I know, but there was a huge difference between those two in the past. Most working Americans never had what you describe.
    • @lhon There was only ever a golden jobs age for a small minority: white, male, straight, abled, certain reigions, certain national origins.
    • @lhon I'm not challenging that people don't feel what you're saying. I'm challenging that those feelings are based mostly on myths.
    • @lhon Myths are comforting but dangerous.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama It's great as far as it goes, but it leaves open a lot of questions that will change one's interpretation.
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 1 How were the customers acquired?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 2 Will that method of customer acquisition scale?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 3 How big is the market?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 4 What are the per customer economics (cost vs revenue)?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 5 How much of the growth is from new customer acquisition vs upsells to current customers?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 6 What's the churn?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 7 What's the customer concentration?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 8 What's the competitive dynamic, and what does that mean for future per-customer economics?

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @sbermo @semil Demographics + single-party gov't + systemic misallocation of capital + little entrepreneurship + little immigration...
    • @sbermo @semil Demographics + single-party gov't + systemic misallocation of capital + little entrepreneurship + little immigration...
    • @sbermo @semil In the US, we have no shortage of problems, but we are on the right side of each of these relative to Japan.
    • @sbermo @semil Thanks, ironically, in large part due to undocumented immigration. Keeps our birthrate up, working age low, culture dynamic.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @JohnSherer Oh yes! :-)
    • @JohnSherer Yes, that's the concern. With new tech, customers often don't know what they want until you build it.
    • @JohnSherer Meaning people often don't know the use cases or jobs to be done ahead of time.
    • Excellent story from @kristenhare about high school journalists telling the #Ferguson story: http://t.co/ZLlc8PYZVA — (RT @BenMullin)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @iankar_ It's a mapping of a certain growth trajectory to certain financial characteristics.
    • @iankar_ Depends on how big one expects the market to be, and how fast one thinks the company can grow to go get it.
    • @iankar_ E.g. with software co's, VCs look for fast sales growth + positive gross margins. Figure high net margins will come down the road.
    • @iankar_ ...But you don't actually want high net margins today, since that would mean you're not growing sales & marketing fast enough.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @iankar_ Wide variability by kind of business model.
    • @iankar_ The general difference is that gross is "all dollars", net is "gross dollars - expenses" = "what's left for me at the end".
    • @iankar_ So gross profit = revenue - COGS (embedded 3rd party components). Net profit = gross profit - operating expenses.
    • @iankar_ But this all works very differently for hardware companies vs software companies vs online services, etc.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @RyanAvenue 1 Cover minimal personal burn rate (cheap apartment + cheap food) with freelance programming jobs (Rentacoder, CL, etc.).
    • @RyanAvenue 2 Spend all extra time becoming leading open source contributor on Github for leading-edge software area e.g. Bitcoin.
    • @RyanAvenue 3 Build extensive Twitter, blogging, social media presence based on 2.
    • @RyanAvenue 4 Get hired as remote contractor at one or more serious tech companies based on 2 and 3.
    • @RyanAvenue 5 After knocking contracting jobs out of the park, leverage into full-time job at top-end tech company.
    • @RyanAvenue 6 Five years hard work to become established as one of the best people at that company; build lots of relationships w/smart ppl.
    • @RyanAvenue 7 Raise venture capital to start new company with the best people I know from 6.
    • Google Hangouts in Chrome on Mac Air: Very good, but still has feedback issues when using laptop's microphone & speakers?!?

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi Browsers = FIrefox, Chrome, Safari, Opera, tons of mobile upstarts, browsers embedded in apps, etc.
    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi Web/app servers = huge business for Oracle, IBM + lots of startups + tons of open source
    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi Javascript became an entire industry with tons of tools, frameworks, consulting firms, etc.
    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi SSL is now an entire ecosystem -- and there are SSL-specific firewalls, hacking systems, tons of open source
    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi Ecommerce apps, publishing apps, customer service apps = all big industries w/many players today.
    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi And so forth. Even proxy servers and load balancers turned into pretty large industries w/multiple big players.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Powerful essay by @stevenbjohnson: "We're living the dream; we just don't realize it" -- http://t.co/OSVVjlQcXB
    • 2/"Over the past two decades, what have the US trends been for the following important measures of social health:"
    • 3/"High school dropout rates, college enrollment, juvenile crime, drunken driving, traffic deaths, infant mortality, life expectancy..."
    • 4/"Per capita gasoline consumption, workplace injuries, air pollution, divorce, male-female wage equality, charitable giving..."
    • 5/"Voter turnout, per capita GDP and teen pregnancy?"
    • 6/"The answer for all of them is the same: The trend is positive. Almost all have improved by more than 20% over the past two decades."
    • 7/"Many Americans are convinced 'half marriages end in divorce': not the case since early 80s--since, they have declined by almost a third."
    • 8/"Even though the world's population has doubled over past 50 years, percentage living in poverty has declined by 50% over that period."
    • 9/"Positive trends in our social health are coming from a complex network of forces [vs big-bang tech breakthroughs]."
    • 10/"No one takes out a prime-time ad campaign to tout the remarkable decrease in air pollution that we have seen over the past few decades."
    • 11/"Curmudgeons, doomsayers, utopians & declinists all have easier time getting PR than those who celebrate slow & steady improvement."
    • 12/"In long run, media bias against incremental progress may be more damaging than any bias the media display toward left or right."
    • 13/"The media are heavily biased toward extreme events, and they are slightly biased toward negative events..."
    • 14/"...though in their defense, that bias may be reflection of human brain's documented propensity to focus more on negative information."
    • 15/"We underestimate the amount of steady progress that continues around us, and we misunderstand where that progress comes from."
    • 16/"We should celebrate stories of progress, not to rest on our laurels but so we can inspire the next generation to build on that success."
    • @pmarca @stevenbjohnson Reminds me of this @PeterDiamandis book http://t.co/hXJSeBwt1B — (RT @Taylor_Soper)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Hello! An update on life on #67P - Yesterday was exhausting! I actually performed 3 landings,15:33, 17:26 & 17:33 UTC. Stay tuned for more — (RT @Philae2014)
    • Now that I’m safely on the ground, here is what my new home #67P looks like from where I am. #CometLanding http://t.co/gFmt8Ldvpa — (RT @Philae2014)
    • Another stunning image of my new home taken by ROLIS during #CometLanding yesterday, when I was just 40 m from #67P http://t.co/I8OZ5kXjXA — (RT @Philae2014)
    • The view is absolutely breathtaking ESA_Rosetta! Unlike anything I've ever seen #CometLanding http://t.co/flsSdxz0bo — (RT @Philae2014)
    • Got more OSIRIS pics from your descent @philae2014, so made a neat movie: http://t.co/zXMGaclo0z #CometLanding http://t.co/Bn28sh1H2r — (RT @ESA_Rosetta)
    • And later when you’re nearer #67P @philae2014...but then you’re just a dot! http://t.co/VrFXFTSAIF #CometLanding http://t.co/mgzuJmVRpx — (RT @ESA_Rosetta)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @NiallPeat No, the decrease in global economic inequality is a huge deal. Billions of people experiencing rising incomes for first time.
    • @NiallPeat But there's also a top end of income and wealth in the developing world that is often extractive to the point of outright theft.
    • @NiallPeat But there's also a top end of income and wealth in the developing world that is often extractive to the point of outright theft.
    • @pmarca Since Sept. 1 a whopping 45 percent of contracts signed on units above $4 million were made off of floorplans http://t.co/sg3ka7Vtrj — (RT @swittatwitta)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @zachcoelius My view (could be wrong) is that what's happening in Bay Area is supply/demand imbalances, not inflation.
    • @zachcoelius One thing I think underappreciated about the runup in housing prices in NY/London/LA/Hamptons/Aspen, for example...
    • @zachcoelius ...as well as art, is the impact of a dramatic influx of ultra-high-net-worth buyers from countries like China and Russia.
    • @zachcoelius So rise in those asset prices doesn't necessarily reflect inflation as much as capital flight from those other countries.
    • @zachcoelius Bay Area real estate is more a function of the post-2009 tech resurgence, and very limited new supply of housing.
    • 1/Hedge fund baron Paul Singer: "London, Manhattan, Aspen, & East Hampton real estate, & art, prices [show] leading edge of hyperinflation."
    • 2/There are a bunch of reasons to believe that his theory is wrong, but one that I think is under-appreciated is this:
    • 3/Those are specific markets seeing dramatic influx of ultra-high-net-worth buyers from overseas--China, Russia, and certain other nations.
    • 4/You can see this vividly in this week's art auctions in New York, and it's been obvious in London real estate for some time.
    • 5/Another: "30% of all apartments 49th-70th Streets between Fifth&Park are vacant at least 10 months a year." http://t.co/WkMCc0fIG3
    • 6/So price rises in these specific assets can likely be explained by simple supply & demand without requiring inflation, hyper or otherwise.
    • 7/And therefore price rises in these assets do not necessarily indicate much of anything about the domestic macroeconomic situation.
    • 8/In fact, obvious "bullish on America" argument here: Capital fleeing other countries and landing specifically in US (& UK!) real estate.
    • 9/Further, these asset prices may be explainable quite independently of the various QE & inequality debates happening within the US.
    • 10/On a global economic scale, the total value of this specific real estate + art is not that large. Prices easily altered by capital flows.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @nishant86shah @tparekh Compensation doesn't need to be transparent for the arbitrage to work.
    • @nishant86shah @tparekh Employers just need to know the max they'd actually pay to fill those jobs.
    • @nishant86shah @tparekh Employers just need to know the max they'd actually pay to fill those jobs.
    • @nishant86shah @tparekh Market negotiation between supply and demand takes care of the rest.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @yalimgerger Fair is a loaded word. I am describing how economic logic matches productivity and wages, not claiming moral fairness.
    • @yalimgerger We have many redistribution mechanisms to fix our collective view of fairness. That's on top of what I'm talking about.
    • @yalimgerger BTW I have personally worked many of the low wage jobs. Dishwasher, lawn care, farmhand, retail stock/checkout, etc.
    • @yalimgerger I wasn't happy not getting paid much but I wanted to understand why or why not and not just complain about fairness.
    • Low wage jobs I have personally held: Dishwasher (12hrs/day on feet), lawn care (hot summers), retail stock/checkout, unskilled farm labor.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @yalimgerger Fair is a loaded word. I am describing how economic logic matches productivity and wages, not claiming moral fairness.
    • @yalimgerger We have many redistribution mechanisms to fix our collective view of fairness. That's on top of what I'm talking about.
    • @yalimgerger BTW I have personally worked many of the low wage jobs. Dishwasher, lawn care, farmhand, retail stock/checkout, etc.
    • @yalimgerger I wasn't happy not getting paid much but I wanted to understand why or why not and not just complain about fairness.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @joshtpm It can't happen IF labor and capital markets are clearing properly.
    • @joshtpm My point is that if you are concerned about the issue, the way to address it is to make sure labor & capital markets clear right.
    • @joshtpm But the irony is the same people most concerned about the issue are usually least in favor of free, properly clearing L & C mkts.
    • @joshtpm The answer to defects in capitalism is often more capitalism -- more competition, more employers, more capital, freer markets.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Problem with claim that workers aren't getting fair compensation for productivity gains: Clear arbitrage opportunity for other employers.
    • So if u believe workers aren't getting fair comp for productivity gains, the real question is, why aren't labor markets clearing properly?
    • And if you believe labor markets aren't clearing properly, then what's interfering w/formation & growth of new businesses to hire people?
    • @pmarca with more work able to happen remotely, this is more true than ever before. HQ/Factories could exploit location/isolation. — (RT @stevesi)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @TMFBiggles The Ant-Man they're doing is not that one.
    • @TMFBiggles It should be, God willing, highly funny :-).
    • @TMFBiggles It should be, God willing, highly funny :-).
    • U.S. companies are now stashing $2,000,000,000,000 overseas » http://t.co/YFa25VlfJk http://t.co/FE7X4QhEnp — (RT @CNBC)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jyarow Every scaled social network went through surges and plateaus of new users as they worked through adding new kinds of users.
    • @jyarow That isn't to say that it's easy or automatic, but it is the success pattern. The user numbers are never smooth up and to right.
    • @jyarow So the big question on user growth is not any of the current numbers but, can T continue to add new categories of users over time.
    • @jyarow Eg, different ages, gender, ethnicities, languages, nationalities, income levels, kinds of interest, kinds of activity...
    • @jyarow As a long term investor I really only have three questions:
    • @jyarow 1 Do I think long-term user/usage growth will be strong (but not necessarily smooth) given nature of platform & network effects?
    • @jyarow 2 Do I believe company can field $-generating products and programs that attract lots of non-experimental demand over long run?
    • @jyarow 3 Do I believe CEO and team are up to the challenge of working through 1 and 2?
    • @jyarow I think answers to all 3 are "yes" but your mileage may vary. If I am right, user and revenue growth of 10x will happen & pay off.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jyarow I think the big question is not any of this but rather the strength of the network effect and therefore the competitive moat.
    • @jyarow I'm a believer, I think it's strong, meaning things that may be dangerous for other companies should just be matter of time for T.
    • @jyarow But if you believe the moat is weaker than I do, then you get a lot more concerned about near-term performance metrics.
    • @jyarow So in my view all these questions should be placed within that context. Different business models = different implications.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Too high level to infer much of everything. Many underlying questions.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Eg, social networks tend to surge and then plateau as they add new kinds of users: need to examine thru that lens.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Eg, antispam efforts will tend to push down on usage metrics while improving user experience.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Eg, patterns of ratio and growth rates of readers vs tweeters and tweets.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Eg, for $ analysis, current level of monetization & ad products vs underutilized potential of existing base.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Good news is Wall St gets that it's not just about this Q's $, need to look at underlying usage trends.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Bad news is Wall St seems overfocused on a few top-line usage #'s, vs more complex dynamics within.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Eg, what do we know about strength of network effects moat; what is fuse for company to work through any issues.
    • Another incredible shot: Moments before touchdown, #Philae took this pic of the landing site. http://t.co/OH2xBQuFJG http://t.co/iw7aegrwII — (RT @BadAstronomer)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Enough people asking what I think of net neutrality so I will attempt to answer, but warning, I do not have a clean and simple answer!
    • 2/I think permissionless innovation, nondiscriminatory nature of Internet is of critical importance and must be maintained or strengthened.
    • 3/I also think telco/cable companies need incentives to build far more/better net infrastructure than we have now & be able to make $ on it.
    • 4/Due to the economics of network businesses, I think these are extremely difficult principles to reconcile & I don't envy the regulators.
    • 5/I further worry about simplistic and politicized nature of much of the debate, which I think is not conducive to navigating complexity.
    • 6/And I further still worry about the sausage-making of any regulatory process & the likelihood of unanticipated & undesirable outcomes.
    • 7/And generally, I try to spend my time trying to figure out how to bring more/better/faster Internet to more people in new/different ways.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Title II FCC regulations were created in 1934, based directly on railroad regulations from 1887, 125+ years ago. http://t.co/auLvBeIY7a
    • 2/Here are some other things that happened in 1887, same year railroad regulations that then became telecom regulations were designed:
    • 3/In 1887, Arthur Conan Doyle's detective character Sherlock Holmes makes his first appearance, in the novel A Study in Scarlet.
    • 4/In 1887, the earliest constituent of the U.S. National Institutes of Health is established in Staten Island as the Laboratory of Hygiene.
    • 5/In 1887, construction of the iron structure of the Eiffel Tower starts in Paris, France.
    • 6/In 1887, Gottlieb Daimler, the cofounder of the company that now makes Mercedes cars, unveils his first automobile.
    • 7/In 1887, the cornerstone of the new Stanford University, in northern California, is laid (the college opens in 1891).
    • 8/In 1887, the Giuseppe Verdi opera Otello premieres at La Scala.
    • 9/In 1887, Emile Berliner is granted a patent for his Gramophone, the flat-disc phonograph.
    • 11/These and many more described here: http://t.co/GZcTOQH5FO
    • 10/Finally, in 1887, Chester Greenwood patents earmuffs.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Frances_Coppola Yes, all the time. You see a particularly potent version of this in the tech industry...
    • @Frances_Coppola Company X fails, then Company Y forms and hires all the same people from Company X and succeeds.
    • @Frances_Coppola Often Company Y even actually occupies Company X's old office buildings.
    • @Frances_Coppola Whose fault was Company X's failure, and to whose credit is Company Y's success? :-)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @VindalooTitan @JasonKuznicki @jneeley78 Yes. Ironically anti-communists of the period were even more convinced USSR was ultra-strong.
    • @VindalooTitan @JasonKuznicki @jneeley78 http://t.co/MMJDFLoScC
    • @VindalooTitan @JasonKuznicki @jneeley78 http://t.co/MMJDFLoScC
    • "Failure to anticipate USSR collapse: 'anti-anti-communism'--tended to exaggerate regime's stability and legitimacy." http://t.co/MMJDFLoScC

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Much commentary re fall of Berlin Wall 25y ago implies it was obvious Soviet Union would fold. It was not. Considered inconceivable in 1986.
    • In fact, theories that perestroika + fall of Berlin Wall were very clever KGB plots vs West continued into early 90's.
    • "Virtually no Western expert, scholar, official, or politician foresaw the impending collapse of the Soviet Union." http://t.co/MMJDFLoScC
    • E.g. prominent Soviet defector Anatoliy Golitsyn wrote two books explaining fall of Berlin Wall & USSR as KGB plot: http://t.co/9cr0CADOri
    • @pmarca thought you might like this graphical prediction from Samuelson’s famous 1989 text: http://t.co/a8d8l81WAq http://t.co/803Cn4FITR — (RT @MaximHarper)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @danprimack @mims Maybe, but the test is, is the ad sales force selling just the subscriber audience or a broader audience?
    • @danprimack @mims Until the ad sales force no longer cares about or sells non-paying-sub readers, the damaging internal tension remains.
    • @danprimack @mims And even then the other tension remains: Guys like you two want your stuff more broadly read. Another cross incentive.
    • @danprimack @mims Risk to the business us that all of the best talent may leave to go to places where their output is not walled off.
    • @danprimack @mims This is one of Buzzfeed's real advantages. Wired to make lots of money on written content without a paywall.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mims If only goal is paying subs, then paywall can work as part of integrated strategy. But...
    • @mims Paywall is contrary to interests of advertising model and of creative talent at the firm, both if which want broad exposure.
    • @mims The problem is that leaving this tension unresolved leads to even bigger problems.
    • @mims Hence your frustration, and a general trend among older media businesses to get mad at the customer.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/@LAAF and I are very proud of the work Dr Colin Bucks of Stanford Hospital Emergency Dept just did in Liberia: http://t.co/iQETYlOzwj
    • 2/Dr Bucks is in quarantine in his home in Redwood City and is Ebola symptom free: http://t.co/OLtD9ecWBF
    • 3/"Between 26 and 32 patients died during his stint there, yet nearly as many survived because of the care provided at the 52-bed clinic."
    • 4/"Dr Bucks called the Liberian workers at the clinic 'my heroes' because of their determination in the face of daily threat of disease."

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @munilass This is the gold standard textbook: http://t.co/tV8UE4t9hl
    • @munilass For historical origins, maybe George Dyson's http://t.co/dC57JSNhv2
    • @munilass What the world really needs is a history of the last 30 years of AI research and it's successes and failures.
    • @munilass The field got mostly written off after the disappointments of 1980s until the rise of Google. So 15-20 missing years of writing.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @lhon Yes, up to a point :-).
    • @lhon Yes, up to a point :-).
    • @lhon We wouldn't all be good talking in iambic pentameter all the time either :-).
    • @pmarca @harrymccracken my proposed solution: http://t.co/DGzWxfwyWp — (RT @robertwrighter)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @DouglasCrets Ah! Yes, great question.
    • @DouglasCrets Arguably both home sharing and ride sharing benefitted from supply-side economic softness, at least to start.
    • @DouglasCrets And entertainment legendarily does well during recessions/depressions as people need diversion.
    • @DouglasCrets BUT I think 99% of businesses are better off in economic boom times because there's just so much more demand.
    • @DouglasCrets Or, put another way, 99% of arguments I've heard of "our company will do great in recession" have been total BS.
    • @joshua_ellinger @conorsen @pmarca education prob ~= results, 2x cost; so 12-14% realloc of child $ bought us doubling of workforce, equity — (RT @fredzannarbor)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/People and studies I referenced onstage at #WSJDLive today:
    • 2/Economist Carlota Perez & her book "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital" -- http://t.co/OeGrhmo6ez
    • 3/Economist Claudia Golden & her paper "A Grand Gender Convergence: Its Last Chapter" -- http://t.co/r1VczsPzHO
    • 4/Other people and studies I would have mentioned if I had more time:
    • 5/Economist Jared Bernstein and his piece "It’s Not a Skills Gap That’s Holding Wages Down" -- http://t.co/jQZRF4o96b
    • 6/OECD inspired by economist Angus Maddison: "Global Well-Being Since 1820" -- http://t.co/DnZoCEogSn
    • 7/Economist Julian Simon and his book "Ultimate Resource II" -- http://t.co/2p9lV9iw6T
    • 8/That last is underappreciated when considering the long-run growth consequences of wiring everyone on the planet into a single network.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jyarow @TheStalwart I think software eating world is putting some meaningful downward pressure on GDP and productivity metrics.
    • @jyarow @TheStalwart I think software eating world is putting some meaningful downward pressure on GDP and productivity metrics.
    • @jyarow @TheStalwart BUT I fully expect the saved money to be spent other places, fueling broad-based economic growth.
    • @jyarow @TheStalwart Combination of the two powers significant ongoing rise in standard of living.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest That part was new :-).
    • @dsquareddigest The new thing for all of this is a rapidly scaled global information network containing ~all users and providers.
    • @dsquareddigest Enabling two-sided liquidity, market clearing, and quality enforcement at a qualitatively different level of efficiency.
    • @dsquareddigest Which in turn makes it possible to substitute for ownership alternatives at a qualitatively different level of scale.
    • @dsquareddigest It's not Uber/Lyft vs taxis or informal ride shares at all. It's Uber/Lyft vs owning a car.
    • @dsquareddigest For a very large % of people who currently either own a car, or would have in the next 20 years in the counterfactual.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest @ChrisSpoke No it's not. Every vacation I ever took as a kid, we stayed in someone else's house.
    • @dsquareddigest Brian Chesky actually has a great story on this. Everyone in Silicon Valley told him the AirBNB idea was stupid. cont'd
    • @dsquareddigest Frustrated, he went home for the holidays. His grandfather asked him what he was doing. So Brian told him about it. cont'd
    • @dsquareddigest His grandfather said, oh, that makes total sense, that's how almost everyone traveled before WWII.
    • @dsquareddigest Similar, the idea for Lyft came straight from observing informal ride sharing by villagers in Zimbabwe (true story).

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @evanwieren Think about how much faster new app updates come out vs how often new phones come out vs how often new cars come out.
    • @evanwieren Guarantees that a mapping app on your phone will be light years ahead of any nav system in the next new car, as one example.
    • @evanwieren So the products with fast cycle times will tend to suck a lot of the value out of the products with slow cycle times.
    • @evanwieren The car becomes a peripheral to the phone, vs the other way around. Big balance of power shift results.
    • @pmarca actually had you partly in mind writing this. Why journalists should build software https://t.co/vc7vinWO34 — (RT @gavinsblog)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • What exactly happened to Tesco's financials? #iactuallydontgetit
    • Is there any reason to believe the US is manipulating the price of oil to put pressure on Russia or other countries? #iactuallydontgetit
    • Online harassment is obviously terrible -- but what does GamerGate have to do with actual video games or gamers? #iactuallydontgetit
    • How, and in what ways, is the current strain of Ebola different than/mutated from prior strains of Ebola? #iactuallydontgetit
    • Now that we know Kim Jong-Un is still in charge, what was the deal with sudden diplomatic mission to South Korea Oct 4? #iactuallydontgetit

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @JimPethokoukis Art art! Creating art. If she has an affinity for it.
    • @JimPethokoukis Art art! Creating art. If she has an affinity for it.
    • @JimPethokoukis There are so few people who can do both art and CS. Worth their weight in gold. Very hard though.
    • @JimPethokoukis Or more practically, art degree with CS classes or vice versa.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest Not per se, since traditional banks and credit card companies were so, ahem, generous for so long.
    • @dsquareddigest Not per se, since traditional banks and credit card companies were so, ahem, generous for so long.
    • @dsquareddigest Quite a bit more activity in high-credit-risk lenders, which all end up getting smeared as usurious, e.g. Wonga.
    • Read about the “remarkable stagnation” in credit to noncorporate businesses since the financial crisis http://t.co/7D5GItSKOs — (RT @stlouisfed)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @M_C_Klein @delong This is effectively how the original private investment banking partnerships used to work, of course.
    • @M_C_Klein @delong This is also effectively how venture capital partnerships work.
    • @M_C_Klein @delong This is also effectively how venture capital partnerships work.
    • President of New York Fed effectively calls for return to the days of private investment banking partnerships: http://t.co/ZwYtNHCZUd

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/After 6 years of service + completed decision to split, I've decided now is a good time to step off the eBay Board of Directors.
    • 2/It's been an absolute privilege to serve with John, Pierre, and team, and I could not be more proud of what we've accomplished.
    • 3/I wish eBay, and both of its successor companies, all the best in the years to come & will seek to continue to help as much as I can.
    • 4/Official announcement: http://t.co/R4wZJwazsu
    • These photographs show what life is like on $1 a day http://t.co/HXo7TGoGMB Photo: Renée C. Byer http://t.co/qH51iyjRKh — (RT @TIME)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Jessica Lessin @Jessicalessin writing about "Silicon Valley's Frontman Problem" aka "Peak Andreessen/Thiel/Musk": https://t.co/DTNBkpzS0j
    • 2/She says "Silicon Valley has the microphone. More people should step up and seize it." -- I wholeheartedly agree!
    • 3/In that spirit: Here are a bunch of tech people who aren't widely famous (yet) but who routinely say interesting and provocative things!
    • 4/Founders: @_sunilrawat--Sunil Rawat, Omniscience; @ahsanhilal--Ahsan Rizvi, Kiddomapp; @AlSaqqaf--Mohammed Al Saqqaf, Project Prepay
    • 5/@andrewtrabulsi--Andrew Trabulsi; @bilalfarooqui--Bilal Farooqui, CrystalMD; @chrisamccoy--Chris McCoy, YourSports
    • 6/@DanielleFong--Danielle Fong, Lightsail Energy; @davealevine--David Aron Levine, Artivest; @helengreiner--Helen Grenier, CyPhyWorks
    • 7/@JessicaMah--Jessica Mah, InDinero; @judegomila--Jude Gomila, Heyzap; @meredithperry--Meredith Perry, UBeam; @NaithanJones--Nait, AgLocal
    • 8/@omosanzalette--Louis Anslow, Newtru.st; @paulbaumgart--Paul Baumgart, WhatWeOrder; @ruzwana--Ruzwana Bashir, Peek
    • 9/@Sophia_Amoruso--Sophia Amoruso, NastyGal; @stanine--Matt MacInnis, Inkling; @starkness--Elizabeth Stark, StartX; @tikhon--Tikhon, Parse
    • 10/@tristanwalker--Tristan Walker, Bevel; @tzhongg--Tiffany Zhong, Glimpse; @zaid--Zaid Farooqui, CrystalMD
    • 11/VCs: @aileenlee--Aileen Lee, Cowboy; @AMLG23--Alice Lloyd George, RRE; @annimaniac--Ann Miura-Ko, Floodgate; @bznotes--Bilal Zuberi, Lux
    • 12/@jordancooper--Jordan Cooper, Lerer; @justGLew--Geoff Lewis, Founders Fund; @noUpside--Renee DiResta, OATV; @semil--Semil Shah, Haystack
    • 13/@sarahkunst--Sarah Kunst, VFA; @shaig--Shai Goldman, SVB; @stephpalmeri--Steph Palmeri, SoftTech; @ttunguz--Tomasz Tunguz, Redpoint
    • 14/Other roles! @AndreaKuszewski--Andrea Kuszewski; @Atif_Rz--Atif Raza; @beacongal--Monica Roman Gagnier; @calcsam--Sam Bhagwat
    • 15/@fmbutt--Farooq Butt; @fnxTX--JJ; @kyro--Kyro Beshay; @lhon--Lauren O'Neill; @minarad--Mina Radhakrishnan; @ramez--Ramez Naam
    • 16/@Pierre_Rochard--Pierre Rochard; @Rosepcountry; @SantiaSua--Santiago Suarez; @sriramk--Sriram Krishnan; @startuployalist--Bushra Farooqui
    • 17/@SuB8u--Subrahmanyam KVJ; @Susan_Athey--Susan Athey; @thedataroom--Michael Tsai; @thezhanly--Zhan Li; @tparekh--Tarak Parekh
    • 18/Longtime thought leaders: Andy Rachleff--@arachleff; Bill Davidow--@BillDavidow; Bill Janeway--@billjaneway; Nick Szabo--@NickSzabo4
    • 19/Most of these folks are not affiliated with me/A16Z -- what they have in common is, when they say things, I learn things!
    • 20/Of course this is only a highly abridged selection; for several hundred more, see my Industry list: https://t.co/nsEwqOFDlJ

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Best explanation of cable bundle I've heard: Bundle includes channels you WATCH & channels you MIGHT WATCH. Like stocks + options.
    • Best explanation of cable bundle I've heard: Bundle includes channels you WATCH & channels you MIGHT WATCH. Like stocks + options.
    • Without cable bundle, theory goes, you'd lose all the channels you MIGHT WATCH. End up with less choice for ~same monthly bill.
    • My partner @cdixon in 2012 on the argument for the cable bundle: http://t.co/ITv6R9V7Hn
    • But that doesn't take into account full spectrum of new online video choices/business models + full impact of new aggregators like Netflix.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @foadafshari Advantages to being closer: Access to talent (deeper pool), access to money (just easier), access to information flow.
    • @foadafshari Advantages to being closer: Access to talent (deeper pool), access to money (just easier), access to information flow.
    • @foadafshari Disadvantages to being closer: Employee retention significantly harder (more opportunities), possible groupthink environment.
    • Believe it or not - & bc @9JuanJuan is amazing - here's the latest marriage equality map: http://t.co/tDQrIIIYeX http://t.co/YHZxbQ4NkK — (RT @chrisgeidner)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @davealevine @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama Doesn't really work. Returns too low relative to risk and illiquidity.
    • @davealevine @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama In a major downdraft, growth equity investors get slaughtered. Timing matters.
    • @davealevine @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama 2-3x return target mezz funds need 2-3 year timeframe to raise the money.
    • @davealevine @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama (At least historically.)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama Arguably there is a gap in the startup financing market: the old Warburg Pincus model...
    • @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama ...one firm commits to fund the entirety of $ for the company, staged with gates and milestones.
    • @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama ...one firm commits to fund the entirety of $ for the company, staged with gates and milestones.
    • 1/2 @pmarca reminds me of our first "philosophy" lesson in communist romania: — (RT @optian)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @cdixon @semil Blogs are dead and now Twitter is dying? For God's sake, man, what's living???
    • @cdixon @semil Blogs are dead and now Twitter is dying? For God's sake, man, what's living???
    • @cdixon @semil Give me some hope! ANY HOPE!!
    • “By early 2009, Eventbrite had been turned down by practically every venture capital firm in Silicon Valley” http://t.co/lg642IUc86 — (RT @abrams)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ramez Another interesting book comes to mind! http://t.co/0zkhxUsr8N
    • @ramez A reinterpretation of James Bond as a cultural phenomenon -- big part was as a response to the deprivation of WWII.
    • @ramez A reinterpretation of James Bond as a cultural phenomenon -- big part was as a response to the deprivation of WWII.
    • @ramez He says that's why Bond was so obsessed with food, drink, clothes, cars, etc. -- UK WWII consumers were so deprived of everything.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ramez You'll love it. Thesis is the 1930s had an extraordinary technology-driven productivity boom obscured by the Great Depression.
    • @ramez He then shows that World War II was a step backwards, not forwards. The combo meant that 1945-1960 were primed to explode.
    • @ramez And then the kicker is that in the counterfactual of no WWII, US economy would have roared to life starting in ~1940 -- 5 lost years.
    • @ramez One big point he makes is that there were only about ~18 months of actual scaled industrial production of war materiel in the US.
    • @ramez The rest of the time was economically pointless retrofitting industrial co's into war production and then retrofitting back out.
    • @ramez OK, I'll stop now. It's a tour de force.
    • @ramez OK, one more :-). You'll be highly tempted to conclude that 2000-2010 had more in common with the 1930s than you thought.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @vpostrel @DavidBrin This is an interesting case playing out right now: http://t.co/2VIbmo4s5w
    • @vpostrel @DavidBrin “Monsanto?! The most evil company in the world?! I thought you were trying to make the world a BETTER place?”
    • @vpostrel @DavidBrin “Monsanto?! The most evil company in the world?! I thought you were trying to make the world a BETTER place?”
    • New blog post: transportation, Metcalfe's law, and the industrial revolution: http://t.co/fScDoaqA58 — (RT @NickSzabo4)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @johnolilly Or, the pricing is all still new, will drop as market size expands.
    • @johnolilly Or, cable bundle prices are otherwise rising 15%+ year over year, bundle would have grown into much higher pricing.
    • @johnolilly Or, the quality level of video entertainment is rising steadily, makes sense to pay more.
    • @pmarca from @TheOnion "Someone should do something about all the problems" http://t.co/LsLvKJcGwI — (RT @NishiDholakia)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/In 2007, Laura (@LAAF) and I committed a $27.5 million donation to Stanford Hospital's Emergency Department: http://t.co/AUEjQxHWI7
    • 2/Our donation was for both the current & a future new Stanford Emergency Department. Today I want to provide an update on the new ED!
    • 3/Stanford is building an entirely new hospital in the heart of Silicon Valley, which will start operation in 2018: http://t.co/3Q5fmMkbjf
    • 4/The overall project is 824,000 square feet, and will include our new ED, which will be twice the size of today's and fully cutting-edge.
    • 5/The hospital will cost $1.8 billion in total. Of that, $600 million in philanthropic donations has already been raised, of a $700M target.
    • 6/Philanthropic donors include both individuals like us + local companies: Adobe, Apple, Cisco, eBay, HP, Intel, Intuit, Nvidia, and Oracle.
    • 7/The new Stanford Hospital will be profoundly transformative for the Silicon Valley community, from complex cancer care to 3AM emergencies.
    • 8/And the new Stanford ED -> Even more powerful healthcare safety net for our lowest-income, homeless, and undocumented immigrant neighbors.
    • 9/Stanford Hospital CEO Amir Dan Rubin & colleagues are building future of healthcare in Silicon Valley & Laura + I are thrilled to support.
    • 11/If you'd like to join us in supporting the new Stanford Hospital, donations can be made online here :-): https://t.co/b4quZez9x9
    • 10/For more information: http://t.co/UMAkk9wZC7 http://t.co/jUqiBe4ROS http://t.co/jf8Ez3k3rk

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Perhaps the single biggest key enabler for the sharing/gig/1099 economy in the US: Affordable Care Act of 2010, aka Obamacare.
    • The sharing/gig/1099 economy materialized over the last 5 years in *response* to high unemployment -- the exact opposite of causing it.
    • The sharing/gig/1099 economy materialized over the last 5 years in *response* to high unemployment -- the exact opposite of causing it.
    • It's far from clear that the sharing economy companies could have launched and scaled in a full employment economy -- likely too expensive.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @paulkaps Things changed fast.
    • @paulkaps Things changed fast.
    • @paulkaps My point.
    • @pmarca Remember the early 90's in SV well: post-disk drive carnage, few IPO's, double-digit US interest rates. Oh, and software was over. — (RT @jdrive)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @vpostrel @vgr Medium is in some ways a much more straightforward theory than Twitter was when it started.
    • @vpostrel @vgr Medium is in some ways a much more straightforward theory than Twitter was when it started.
    • @vpostrel @vgr I think Medium is Ev thinking that Blogger went nowhere under Google and it's time to do it right.
    • @pmarca More like Tesla is to Ferrari. Both pretty good - just different generations of tech. — (RT @othman)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @doobeedoo2 @lhon Wages are rising for the vast majority of people on the planet.
    • @doobeedoo2 @lhon Wages are rising for the vast majority of people on the planet.
    • @doobeedoo2 @lhon Meanwhile, here in the US, benefits are becoming a larger and larger portion of compensation, including now Obamacare.
    • Our partner @stevesi on how managers, particularly male managers, can foster a better work environment for women: http://t.co/CEA3YSwI1M

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @lhon @MParekh Ah! This is the really fascinating part. Satoshi designed the system to have speculation be the bootstrapping mechanism.
    • @lhon @MParekh Another common critique of Bitcoin is the speculation, which COMPLETELY misses this point.
    • @lhon @MParekh The speculation motivated the mining and giving the currency initial value to punch through the chicken and egg problem.
    • @lhon @MParekh In other words, the speculation is the distributed answer to what would otherwise have to be initial institutional support.
    • @lhon @MParekh The smartest computer scientists I know all think Satoshi deserves a Nobel Prize. Bitcoin is a work of intellectual genius.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @lhon @MParekh Think of it like a stock. There's a total market cap for the entire thing. And then an unlimited number of potential units.
    • @lhon @MParekh Like stock splits. You can split the stock as much as you want, the market cap stays unaffected.
    • @lhon @MParekh It has its pros and cons, but it's a genuinely new thing. A gold-like deflationary currency but with infinite # of units.
    • @lhon @MParekh The last step function change like this was John Law's paper currency 300 yrs ago. Also drove economists nuts then too.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Given extremely low price/earnings ratios for big public tech companies including GOOG and AAPL, only two outcomes are possible:
    • 2/One: Big tech is undervalued, in which case there's no tech bubble. You don't see multiples this low in any bubble.
    • 3/Other: Big tech is fairly valued, meaning all doomed within ~10 years, therefore their startup disruptors are undervalued, so no bubble.
    • .@pmarca's latest #tweetstorm... http://t.co/8hKcJwrBH2 — (RT @pngmarca)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/This morning my wife Laura (@LAAF) and I are tickled pink to announce three Andreessen-Arrillaga Inclusion Grants: http://t.co/aFHUpb8JvB
    • 2/These three Inclusion Grants total $500,000, and go to three stellar young nonprofit organizations working to grow inclusion in tech:
    • 3/Code2040 (@CODE2040) helps high-performing black and Latino engineering students begin amazing careers with top tech employers.
    • 4/Hack The Hood (@hackthehood) provides low-income youth of color with training and mentoring in computer and business skills.
    • 5/Girls Who Code (@GirlsWhoCode) catalyzes girls in junior/senior years of high school to gain computing skills, connect into tech industry.
    • 6/Laura and I couldn't be more excited to work with all three amazing groups to help them scale their programs over the next several years.
    • 7/We think there's huge opportunity to include more people, including/especially underrepresented groups, into tech field and tech industry.
    • 8/Finally, big thank you to Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering (http://t.co/5hFjpVH2Bd)--my 2013 prize money helped fund these grants.
    • 9/And, sign up now for @LAAF's Stanford philanthropy MOOC course starting this week--she taught me everything I know! http://t.co/s1MAMySMhq
    • .@pmarca's latest #tweetstorm... http://t.co/F4VQeHCQ96 — (RT @pngmarca)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/This morning my wife Laura (@LAAF) and I are tickled pink to announce three Andreessen-Arrillaga Inclusion Grants: http://t.co/aFHUpb8JvB
    • 2/These three Inclusion Grants total $500,000, and go to three stellar young nonprofit organizations working to grow inclusion in tech:
    • 3/Code2040 (@CODE2040) helps high-performing black and Latino engineering students begin amazing careers with top tech employers.
    • 4/Hack The Hood (@hackthehood) provides low-income youth of color with training and mentoring in computer and business skills.
    • 5/Girls Who Code (@GirlsWhoCode) catalyzes girls in junior/senior years of high school to gain computing skills, connect into tech industry.
    • 6/Laura and I couldn't be more excited to work with all three amazing groups to help them scale their programs over the next several years.
    • 7/We think there's huge opportunity to include more people, including/especially underrepresented groups, into tech field and tech industry.
    • 8/Finally, big thank you to Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering (http://t.co/5hFjpVH2Bd)--my 2013 prize money helped fund these grants.
    • 9/And, sign up now for @LAAF's Stanford philanthropy MOOC course starting this week--she taught me everything I know! http://t.co/s1MAMySMhq

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • “Microsoft is a nihilistic bet against tech innovation.” More @PeterThiel zingers:http://t.co/MjlxUaZOSH #pcw14 @... http://t.co/AGaV09DoGf — (RT @dfjsteve)
    • Thiel just said “sheeplike conformism” to describe US education system. Everybody drink. #pcw14 — (RT @samjsutton)
    • Peter Thiel slams Oracle, Microsoft, as bets against innovation. #pcw14 #buyouts. MSFT is a nihilistic bet that a another OS won't succeed. — (RT @SteveGelsi)
    • Peter Thiel: competition is for losers. The battle is so ferocious because the stakes are so small. #pcw14 #buyouts — (RT @SteveGelsi)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Bloomberg Markets was nice enough to publish an interview with me, mostly on finance and banking topics, this week: http://t.co/ZaQPIhqehY
    • 2/Since the interview is correct but abridged, and took place in early April and is just coming out now, I offer a few additional thoughts:
    • 3/Unbundling banks: I think banks are getting unbundled with or without Silicon Valley or Bitcoin--due to market changes + regulation.
    • 4/Any big bank executive will tell you: Over time, ratio between what non-banks can offer vs what banks can offer is steadily increasing.
    • 5/Post-crisis reforms like Dodd Frank are accelerating the unbundling, whether that's what regulators intended or not.
    • 6/But Dodd Frank is double-edged sword: Also makes it harder for new entrants to the core banking system. Banks both protected & restricted.
    • 7/Bitcoin and regulation: Since interview in early April to now, there's been substantial movement by many regulators on Bitcoin.
    • 8/Plenty of current discussions and disputes between market participants and regulators, but overall I think a lot of progress is happening.
    • 10/We are seeing a rapidly escalating level of engagement and interest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency by large financial services companies.
    • 11/The opportunity is clear and present for both big companies and startups to use new technology to improve financial services broadly.
    • 12/Finally (again :-): Since the interview, the other huge earthquake to hit financial services industry is the launch of Apple Pay.
    • 13/Between Apple Pay & Bitcoin, I predict more changes coming in financial services & banking in the next 3 years than in the last 20 years.
    • .@pmarca's latest #tweetstorm... http://t.co/3xU6utij3z — (RT @pngmarca)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Bloomberg Markets was nice enough to publish an interview with me, mostly on finance and banking topics, this week: http://t.co/ZaQPIhqehY
    • 2/Since the interview is correct but abridged, and took place in early April and is just coming out now, I offer a few additional thoughts:
    • 3/Unbundling banks: I think banks are getting unbundled with or without Silicon Valley or Bitcoin--due to market changes + regulation.
    • 4/Any big bank executive will tell you: Over time, ratio between what non-banks can offer vs what banks can offer is steadily increasing.
    • 5/Post-crisis reforms like Dodd Frank are accelerating the unbundling, whether that's what regulators intended or not.
    • 6/But Dodd Frank is double-edged sword: Also makes it harder for new entrants to the core banking system. Banks both protected & restricted.
    • 7/Bitcoin and regulation: Since interview in early April to now, there's been substantial movement by many regulators on Bitcoin.
    • 9/Finally, much like the Internet 20 years ago, Bitcoin as a technology can and will be adopted by both incumbents & new market entrants.
    • 8/Plenty of current discussions and disputes between market participants and regulators, but overall I think a lot of progress is happening.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mobiusbobs @brenpdx Yep, but on the other hand, whole categories of hardware keep getting swallowed into cheap or free software...
    • @mobiusbobs @brenpdx Yep, but on the other hand, whole categories of hardware keep getting swallowed into cheap or free software...
    • @mobiusbobs @brenpdx Compare e.g. high-fidelity telepresence vs travel. Former will drop to ~zero cost.
    • Fascinating. A 20-year-old intern invents a smart life saving wheelchair. Already talking of a platform! http://t.co/iDtjCTfCrH — (RT @SuB8u)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @MikeMcCorms @semil Often what happens is the opposite, other VC firms try to take down the next round early.
    • @MikeMcCorms @semil Often what happens is the opposite, other VC firms try to take down the next round early.
    • @MikeMcCorms @semil Also there are many reasons a VC firm may pass on a particular company or round unrelated to company quality...
    • @MikeMcCorms @semil ...and other VCs know that. AND most of the huge winners were passed on by lots of VC firms... signal may not work.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @fnxTX For extra fun, read John Gardner's Moriarty novels: http://t.co/PQQBoBvu9f
    • @fnxTX Turns out Moriarty is a misunderstood anti-hero and man of the people, and Sherlock is a confused buffoon :-).
    • @fnxTX Also for a far darker British take on mysteries and conspiracies, watch the British TV series "Utopia".
    • @fnxTX (Utopia features both nerds and a spectacular female lead.) (Also, best watched late at night with all lights out.)
    • Fascinating @NYTimeskrugman on liquidity traps and Bill Gross: http://t.co/s7pxhfQWgJ http://t.co/lC4Gtk93Tm

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @borker @johnrobinson You say that like there's something wrong with it :-).
    • @borker @johnrobinson Two reasons, one individual level and one societal level.
    • @borker @johnrobinson Individual level: Stands to reason much greater range of people you can meet online vs who happens to be around you.
    • @borker @johnrobinson Societal level: As counterweight to natural geographic affiliation --> tribalism, us vs them, defining of "other".

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @delong Two kinds of practical answers to that question: On what computer language/platform, and for what kind of application.
    • @delong On the first, on something modern and easy to pick up from scratch -- the principles all tend to be the same.
    • @delong Second I think is quite important. Something fun and interesting. Games are a good start, or art, music, sports related.
    • @delong They can learn how to build databases and accounting apps later when they're old and boring :-).
    • "Tesla is a Silicon Valley company. If we are not the leader, then shame on us." -- @elonmusk https://t.co/u5GJyzzEPT via @pmarca — (RT @aparanjape)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones The problem is that reality is exactly the opposite of what you describe.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones In the old days, local bookstores were few and far between. Nearest bookstore to my hometown was 60 miles away.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones Amazon has expanded access to bookstore to more people in 20 years than book industry in preceding 500 years.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones In the process, through scale and through pioneering digital distribution, Amazon has driven book prices down.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones Which is great for consumers. Consumer far better off post-Amazon than pre-Amazon.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones On selection/assortment, Amazon has far larger selection than any physical bookstore in history. By huge margin.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones On top of all THAT, Amazon is radically expanding # of books published via its self-publishing platform.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones No book industry incumbent did that. Again, had 500 years, didn't do it. Amazon did it in less than 10 years.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • What happens tomorrow? @TheAPJournalist: I just stumbled onto this photo. It speaks for itself. #OccupyCentral http://t.co/VdkReWxVFi — (RT @panphil)
    • #hk926 MT @wilfredchan: 2000 people in Mong Kok intersection by my estimate Uneasy calm. Protesters growing louder. http://t.co/lvEuW1cG6i — (RT @IlariaMariaSala)
    • Citizens sit-in to occupied Causeway Bay and Mong Kok & Wan Chai besides #OccupyCentral #hk926 http://t.co/HpyQk08ek7 — (RT @PlasticNews_wf)
    • Photos from the ongoing protests in Hong Kong (Via @LeoAW/@harbourtimes/@kjalee) #OccupyCentral #hk926 http://t.co/fvDQVrrLDR — (RT @TheAPJournalist)

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Quite a turnout in Mong Kok, the real heart of Hong Kong. Peaceful but vigilant. #OccupyCentral http://t.co/K7iTQdxErt — (RT @eldestran)
    • Quite a turnout in Mong Kok, the real heart of Hong Kong. Peaceful but vigilant. #OccupyCentral http://t.co/K7iTQdxErt — (RT @eldestran)
    • Scenes that remind us all of Gezi from Hong Kong. #OccupyCentral #OccupyHongKong http://t.co/6e7zAPjGZi — (RT @OccupiedTaksim)
    • Tens of thousands of young protestors are demonstrating in Hong Kong #OccupyCentral http://t.co/89Scex8lxd (Getty) http://t.co/PKQ3ayepQv — (RT @glanzpiece)

    11 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ClaraJeffery Fascinating divergence between economics of film industry & serialized television. Dumb one got smart, smart one got dumb.
    • @ClaraJeffery Film, to your point, went international. Whereas television went to digital distribution: DVD, then iTunes, now streaming.
    • @ClaraJeffery Other fascinating part is role of writers.
    • @ClaraJeffery In film, writers get steadily less important as script matters less relative to brand name content/actors + special effects.
    • @ClaraJeffery But in television, writers got way more important over last 20 years; now writers actually run the shows.
    • @ClaraJeffery They had to turn TV over to the writers; only the writers can deliver 13-22 hours/year of filmed content year in, year out.
    • @ClaraJeffery Direct analogy between rise of writer/showrunner in television and founder/CEO in tech startups.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Hong Kong students week-long boycott of school in protest for true democracy & universal suffrage. #OccupyCentral #HK http://t.co/sX1kdwdQhN — (RT @PRHacks)
    • THIS IS @OCLPHK #HKStudentStrike #HKClassBoycott @hu_jia #HK @NewsRevo http://t.co/X7Y94VlZcf — (RT @JigmeUgen)
    • A man holds a sign reading "I want freedom" amid a seated crowd of HK protesters. (Via @TravelFoto) #HKStudentStrike http://t.co/uJFHlABpgj — (RT @TheAPJournalist)
    • Umbrellas vs riot shields: face off outside #HK gov HQ in ongoing democracy protests. #HKStudentStrike http://t.co/Fj05cgIhvW — (RT @aartam)

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @erikbryn There was this guy Adam Smith who kept going on about "gains from trade"... :-)
    • @erikbryn And re income inequality, important to note that these systems involve the customer giving the worker money! :-)
    • Hong Kong, summer 2014. Protesters brace for standoff with the police. #NotKiev http://t.co/1fQ9Xldjk2 — (RT @byAlanWong)
    • Hong Kong, summer 2014. Protesters brace for standoff with the police. #NotKiev http://t.co/1fQ9Xldjk2 — (RT @byAlanWong)

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/One response to https://t.co/MIUJtDFAVz: "Why isn't this just hypocritical VCs overfunding reckless founders of out-of-control startups?"
    • 2/In fairness, there is probably some of that, though we & the investors we respect try hard not to indulge recklessness & irresponsibility.
    • 3/But while it's irresponsible to vaporize cash & your company, it can also be irresponsible to NOT invest to become #1 in a big new market.
    • 4/Particularly now, since there are SO many more people on the Internet & SO many more businesses that can consume cloud/SAAS vs 15 yrs ago.
    • 5/Tension: Overinvest, escalate burn, risk down round, vaporize when market turns; OR Underinvest, starve growth, don't win market, implode.
    • 6/Why is this so important? In tech-driven markets, overwhelming economic returns tend to go to the company with the highest market share.
    • 7/And, the winning company with the highest market share can invest the most in R&D, build the best and most advanced products. The prize.
    • 9/The challenge for CEOs and boards of tech startups is to thread the needle, just enough investment to take the #1 position, but not more.
    • 10/Meeting this challenge has resulted in thousands of venture-capital-backed companies creating millions of jobs over last 50 years.
    • 11/This challenge becomes far harder when money is flowing freely, since more competitors get funded. Very tricky. Requires deep judgment.
    • 12/BUT opting out of the race generally guarantees you won't be #1 or even #2. Not a good idea either. Just as serious a risk as blowing up.
    • 13/No single answer. Up to VCs, CEOs, boards, and later-round investors to think very carefully about this for each specific circumstance.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/One response to https://t.co/MIUJtDFAVz: "Why isn't this just hypocritical VCs overfunding reckless founders of out-of-control startups?"
    • 2/In fairness, there is probably some of that, though we & the investors we respect try hard not to indulge recklessness & irresponsibility.
    • 3/But while it's irresponsible to vaporize cash & your company, it can also be irresponsible to NOT invest to become #1 in a big new market.
    • 4/Particularly now, since there are SO many more people on the Internet & SO many more businesses that can consume cloud/SAAS vs 15 yrs ago.
    • 5/Tension: Overinvest, escalate burn, risk down round, vaporize when market turns; OR Underinvest, starve growth, don't win market, implode.
    • 6/Why is this so important? In tech-driven markets, overwhelming economic returns tend to go to the company with the highest market share.
    • 8/Via Glengarry Glen Ross: Reward for market position #1 is 90% of the economic value. #2, a set of steak knives. #3, you're fired.
    • 7/And, the winning company with the highest market share can invest the most in R&D, build the best and most advanced products. The prize.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @bebrown2 @eringriffith The general argument: True bubbles/crashes traumatize an entire generation of investors.
    • @bebrown2 @eringriffith So you don't get another bubble in the asset class until the investors who went through it last time are gone.
    • @bebrown2 @eringriffith Consistent with that: Many people who went through 98-02 have been screaming "new bubble" since 2005: 10 years now.
    • @bebrown2 @eringriffith It's rare historically to see back to back bubbles in the same asset class in the same generation for that reason.
    • @bebrown2 @eringriffith When was the last housing bubble before 2005?

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @RichardWaters It's about cash burn and cash need in future. All other things equal, the more you burn, the more you need.
    • @RichardWaters So high cash burn = need to raise more $ often across more rounds, and each round needs to be an up round.
    • @RichardWaters Therefore risk of down round escalates as function of cash burn and number of rounds.
    • @RichardWaters This risk amplified by new arrivals to growth investing scene offering higher valuations than others, but with unclean terms.
    • @RichardWaters CEOs too willing to take higher valuation bid even when it comes with ratchet and other highly dangerous downside terms.
    • @RichardWaters Which further increases risk of a down round.
    • @RichardWaters Does that make sense? Valuation is involved but cash burn is the actual issue.
    • @RichardWaters Which is to say, with lower or no cash burn, valuations wouldn't be nearly as much a concern for this set of companies.
    • @zakimahomed @pmarca the best employees are those who sign up when it's still a struggle; when they're willing for that, they handle storms — (RT @LisaAbeyta)

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest Yep, that's the hope. Even still, there is a lot of capital to be put to work.
    • @dsquareddigest Many places and sectors in the world right now are quite hostile to scaled capital investment programs as well.
    • @dsquareddigest Many countries are highly risky due to expropriation risk, escalating geopolitical tensions, protectionism, etc.
    • @dsquareddigest And in developed world, certain sectors that could use lots of capital are now regulated in ways to sharply discourage it.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest In general I think world is awash with excess capital relative to productive investment opportunities, both before+after QE.
    • @dsquareddigest I think that situation has to persist for a long time since it's not that easy to create new productive investment opp'ys.
    • @dsquareddigest I think that situation has to persist for a long time since it's not that easy to create new productive investment opp'ys.
    • @dsquareddigest Particularly ones that can actually usefully consume large amounts of capital, large scale projects.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @danprimack @pkafka Yep. Prices simply too high. Too much crossover $ from public markets with bigger funds & lower return targets.
    • @danprimack @pkafka The latest version of this is PE & hedge fund investors who will hit any valuation # but demand structural terms.
    • @danprimack @pkafka Those are often worse deals than vanilla terms at a lower headline valuation, but founders hyper-focused on valuation.
    • @danprimack @pkafka We generally just decline to participate since we don't like the consequences of the structural terms for the companies.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Cash burn rates at startups: Recently @bgurley and @fredwilson have sounded a vivid alarm -- http://t.co/xT4cr4mk5G http://t.co/2BfoS9t3AW
    • 2/I said at the time that I agree with much of what Bill says (https://t.co/Yizp0Zr64F), and I want to expand on the topic further:
    • 3/New founders in last 10 years have ONLY been in environment where money is always easy to raise at higher valuations. THAT WILL NOT LAST.
    • 4/When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming without trunks on: many high burn rate co's will VAPORIZE.
    • 5/High cash burn rates are dangerous in several ways beyond the obvious increased risk of running out of cash. Important to understand why:
    • 6/First: High burn rate kills your ability to adapt as you learn & as market changes. Co becomes unwieldy, too big to easily change course.
    • 7/Second: Hiring people is easy; layoffs are devastating. Hiring for startups is effectively one way street. Again, can't change once stuck.
    • 8/Third: Your managers get trained and incented ONLY to hire, as answer to every question. Company bloats & becomes badly run at same time.
    • 9/Fourth: Lots of people, big shiny office, high expense base = Fake "we've made it!" feeling. Removes pressure to deliver real results.
    • 10/Fifth: More people multiplies communication overhead exponentially, slows everything down. Company bogs down, becomes bad place to work.
    • 11/Sixth: Raising new money becomes harder & harder. You have bigger bulldog to feed, need more and more $ at higher and higher valuations.
    • 12/Therefore you take on escalating risk of a catastrophic down round. High-cash-burn startups almost never survive down rounds. VAPORIZE.
    • 13/Further, to get into this position, you probably had to raise too much $ at too high valuation before; escalates down round risk further.
    • 14/Seventh: Even if you CAN raise an up round, you are increasingly likely to incur terrible structural terms like ratchets to chin the bar.
    • 16/Eighth: When market turns, M&A mostly stops. Nobody will want to buy your cash-incinerating startup. There will be no Plan B. VAPORIZE.
    • 17/Finally, there are exceptions to all this. But if you're reading this, you're almost certainly not one. They are few and far between.
    • 18/Worry.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Cash burn rates at startups: Recently @bgurley and @fredwilson have sounded a vivid alarm -- http://t.co/xT4cr4mk5G http://t.co/2BfoS9t3AW
    • 2/I said at the time that I agree with much of what Bill says (https://t.co/Yizp0Zr64F), and I want to expand on the topic further:
    • 3/New founders in last 10 years have ONLY been in environment where money is always easy to raise at higher valuations. THAT WILL NOT LAST.
    • 4/When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming without trunks on: many high burn rate co's will VAPORIZE.
    • 5/High cash burn rates are dangerous in several ways beyond the obvious increased risk of running out of cash. Important to understand why:
    • 6/First: High burn rate kills your ability to adapt as you learn & as market changes. Co becomes unwieldy, too big to easily change course.
    • 7/Second: Hiring people is easy; layoffs are devastating. Hiring for startups is effectively one way street. Again, can't change once stuck.
    • 8/Third: Your managers get trained and incented ONLY to hire, as answer to every question. Company bloats & becomes badly run at same time.
    • 9/Fourth: Lots of people, big shiny office, high expense base = Fake "we've made it!" feeling. Removes pressure to deliver real results.
    • 10/Fifth: More people multiplies communication overhead exponentially, slows everything down. Company bogs down, becomes bad place to work.
    • 11/Sixth: Raising new money becomes harder & harder. You have bigger bulldog to feed, need more and more $ at higher and higher valuations.
    • 12/Therefore you take on escalating risk of a catastrophic down round. High-cash-burn startups almost never survive down rounds. VAPORIZE.
    • 13/Further, to get into this position, you probably had to raise too much $ at too high valuation before; escalates down round risk further.
    • 15/That nice hedge fund investor willing to hit your valuation bar? Imagine him owning 80% of co after down round. How nice will he be then?
    • 14/Seventh: Even if you CAN raise an up round, you are increasingly likely to incur terrible structural terms like ratchets to chin the bar.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @doobeedoo2 I do think much of the world is too devoted to long-term-destructive mercantilism and protectionism.
    • @doobeedoo2 And then much of the rest of the world is devoted to natural resources extraction by the elite.
    • @doobeedoo2 And then much of the rest of the world is devoted to natural resources extraction by the elite.
    • @doobeedoo2 But I am encouraged that more and more people all over the world are now demanding more from their leaders.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @zaid @MaxWendkos Yes. In a couple different ways.
    • @zaid @MaxWendkos Yes. In a couple different ways.
    • @zaid @MaxWendkos (1) Big new offices --> mentality of "we've arrived", "we are succeeding" even before that's actually true.
    • @zaid @MaxWendkos (2) Big new offices naturally "feel" empty -- not enough people to fill space -- feels good to fill it up.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @doobeedoo2 How do we know that QE is having any real effect on asset prices vs the counterfactual scenario of no QE?
    • @doobeedoo2 i.e. How do we know that interest rates, inflation, et al wouldn't be much the same without QE?
    • @doobeedoo2 Consider how *many* market participants have been convinced QE would lead to inflation and have been wrong wrong wrong.
    • @doobeedoo2 Maybe the world is the way it is--low interest rates, low inflation, tons of liquid capital, insufficient growth--& QE=sideshow.
    • @doobeedoo2 In which case, asset prices are probably priced properly, for the most part.
    • Founder of @iRobot, brilliant @helengreiner announces disruptive drone product from her new co., @cyphyworksinc https://t.co/jWu48M9Yll — (RT @mattocko)

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @conorsen Here's what's gone right in the last 10 years --
    • @conorsen Massive price deflation of key inputs dropped cost of creating software/web/mobile product by 10x (all in).
    • @conorsen But market size growth of ~50x as world got broadband and one smartphones. So much more expensive to scale to bigger market.
    • @conorsen But correspondingly payoff to building winner in larger market much bigger. So worth it when it works.
    • @conorsen And input price deflation makes services viable today that wouldn't have been viable in 99 - eg Google Facebook YouTube.
    • @conorsen So all good BUT -- as Bill Gurley points out, risk discipline on growth financing rounds is slipping.
    • @conorsen So you're now seeing more startups that haven't proven their model works get loaded up with tons of capital.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @abrams @msuster VSP was key man (internal personnel issues); Accel was performance.
    • @abrams @msuster There are a bunch of mid-range firms that have been forced to raise significantly smaller funds in last 5 years as well.
    • @abrams @msuster Raising a significantly smaller fund = a bunch of your LPs fired you, in most cases.
    • @abrams @msuster And in VC overall, the attrition rate of firms not raising new funds or just shutting down has been high for 10 years.
    • @abrams @msuster In general, if you aren't either a top-10 megafirm or an up-and-coming boutique, the pressure is on.
    • @abrams @msuster And the top-10 megafirms and up-and-coming boutiques are under a lot of year-to-year scrutiny as well.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Celt_Englishman @balajis It's not ownership per se, it's the concept of a monetizable open protocol. Brand new with Bitcoin.
    • @Celt_Englishman @balajis If we could start Internet over again, could do same things with DNS, SMTP, HTTP. Anything with a namespace.
    • @Celt_Englishman @balajis If we could start Internet over again, could do same things with DNS, SMTP, HTTP. Anything with a namespace.
    • Machine vision only 1.7% worse v. humans in object recognition in latest competition. Cross-over for sure this decade http://t.co/EnejPDPIhJ — (RT @polemitis)

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @rightwayisleft Just that, I think.
    • @rightwayisleft More than that seems really dangerous, including for the long-term credibility of the Fed.
    • @rightwayisleft More than that seems really dangerous, including for the long-term credibility of the Fed.
    • @pmarca i don't actually believe this but i really couldn't help myself :) http://t.co/N0JkBX7IN8 — (RT @kirangollakota)

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dylan20 Not where I grew up.
    • @dylan20 Not where I grew up.
    • @dylan20 (Rural Wisconsin.) Fishing trips, chartered and otherwise, are a major recreational pursuit.
    • Newsflash :-): A very large # of hard-working people in middle America love fishing, go on fishing trips, chartered & otherwise.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @bengraham I don't think so. Subdivision doesn't affect the market cap of the entire ledger (totality of outstanding BTC).
    • @bengraham Subdivision does solve the "babysitting co-op" liquidity trap problem though. http://t.co/ianZiWLPYV
    • @bengraham Need a qualified economist to really dig into this. First currency that's both deflationary and "inflationary" (subdivision).
    • @bengraham It would be as if gold were easily subdivided down to the atomic level, and the atomic units easily traded. A new thing.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @petersims A company does a buyback by giving cash to some of its current shareholders in return for the stock they have been holding.
    • @petersims Those (former) shareholders then take that cash and invest it elsewhere.
    • @petersims So the question is not what happens at the company that did the buyback, but rather where is that cash invested next.
    • @petersims The conventional economic view is that this is market-based capital allocation working properly.
    • @petersims Capital has been freed up from a company that can't productively use it, and can now be invested in a different company that can.

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @patrickc Yep, I agree.
    • @patrickc Take old company X and new company Y. Y often has exact same engineers, executives, processes, culture, even buildings as X.
    • @patrickc Often the only real differences between X and Y are two: (1) Top leadership and (2) The idea.
    • @patrickc Why then is turning X into Y so hard so often, as opposed to starting and scaling Y from scratch?

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @psygnisfive Old school: Move to Silicon Valley if not here; Work for 4 years for top SV software company; Conferences; Nonprofit volunteer.
    • @psygnisfive New school: Twitter, Facebook, Quora, blogging, Hacker News, Github, hackathons.
    • @psygnisfive Ultimate shortcut: Apply to & go through Y Combinator.
    • To paraphrase Marc Andreessen, mobile is eating the consumer electronics industry. http://t.co/2CN0gxncAF @pmarca http://t.co/txY1uGbuuv — (RT @Hugh_W_Forrest)

    11 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Next generation movie theaters could be so much better, charge a premium & dominate financially (like http://t.co/SnJsIk8528)...
    • 2/Convenience: Reserved seating, valet parking, warm embrace of Lyft & Uber including ride-pooling, on-site daycare.
    • 3/Experience: No commercials before movie; super-comfortable chairs & sofas; food delivery directly to seats; sparkling clean bathrooms.
    • 4/Food & drink: High-quality food with healthy options; sit-down dining on site; full bars (Lyft & Uber make more practical & safe now).
    • 5/Variety of screening experiences: Silent, or noisy, or use of phones allowed, or families + kids, or all kids, or dining + movie together.
    • 6/Use of crowdsourcing & crowdfunding for special screenings; full embrace of group & corporate events; all-you-can-view subscriptions...
    • @pmarca kabuki (SF) is by far the best experience I've had in a movie theatre. — (RT @kevingibbon)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @semil Relates to a fundamental truism: Convincing a VC to invest in Series A is easier, not harder, than convincing engineer #10 to join.
    • @semil Raising venture capital is relatively easy compared to almost everything else a founder has to do to make a startup succeed.
    • @semil So, generally speaking, founders who have trouble raising VC are likely to have worse trouble recruiting, selling, running the co.
    • @semil It's a little like when a candidate for President or Governor can't run a well-executed campaign--why would they govern any better?

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @butrelevant People like sports!
    • @butrelevant Playing sports and watching sports.
    • @butrelevant Playing sports and watching sports.
    • @pmarca your tweets are the new metrics. Mentioned here: https://t.co/lobrBJwxi9 — (RT @arieljalali)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/In tech, we talk about difference between technical-founder/CEO (product/eng background) vs professional CEO (sales/marketing background).
    • 2/Our general theory is: Easier to teach product innovator how to manage, than it is to teach sales/marketing operator how to innovate.
    • 3/There are many exceptions in both directions, of course. Mountain is hard to climb either way. Lots of work/learning/adaptation required.
    • 4/I propose another lens on dynamic: Difference between knowing What & Who, vs knowing How, Where, & When. Bear with me...
    • 5/Great tech founder/CEOs tend to focus on What & Who: What product to build, and Who to hire/train/retain/motivate to build it.
    • 6/Great pro CEOs tend to focus on How, Where, & When: How = processes; Where = geographic expansion; When = optimizing business across time.
    • 7/To succeed at scale, each needs to learn the other skills & hire people who have them: Founder/CEO -> How/Where/When; Pro CEO -> What/Who.
    • 8/The challenge: Usually easier to hire skilled business professionals who know How/Where/When than What/Who. Fishing from unbalanced pool.
    • 9/The trap: Only nailing What/Who can carry startup a long way, but only nailing How/Where/When = slow road to zombieland and company death.
    • 10/Ultimately = team-building for both paths. But dynamic different & differently challenging in each direction; requires open discussion.
    • 11/Addendum: The Why = the mission. Ideally beyond just "the company's success". Increasingly important for all paths.
    • 12/Addendum: The truly great tech CEOs have mastered all of these: What, Who, How, Where, & When... and Why.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @Jessicalessin I don't think that's how they end up. I think they end up as great high-margin businesses with huge liquidity & low fees.
    • @Jessicalessin Liquidity in two-sided marketplaces is its own reward. You'd rather have higher liquidity than higher fees.
    • @Jessicalessin Specifically you don't want to raise fees past the point where it would impair liquidity, drive participants to alternatives.
    • @Jessicalessin These businesses are run differently than normal businesses. It's optimization of liquidity, not straight supply/demand.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @Jessicalessin The factor I think you are underestimating is what happens with high-scale liquidity in these marketplaces.
    • @Jessicalessin The factor I think you are underestimating is what happens with high-scale liquidity in these marketplaces.
    • @Jessicalessin With high-scale liquidity, marketplaces can be high margin with low fees and markets clearing at correct prices.
    • @Jessicalessin Marketplace businesses are different in that way from normal businesses with simple supply and demand.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • Stopped by the #Ferguson Library again today, where teachers are volunteering to teach students http://t.co/ZbaT9hH6iV — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Jameila White, who gave out water in #Ferguson yesterday, ended up getting maced. Her story: http://t.co/zenavmSrXl http://t.co/IlgvhcBzd1 — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Here's a Vine I shot last night of Jameila after she was maced https://t.co/gKig6z7atq #Ferguson — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Interviewed this 16-year-old volunteer who was watching kids at the #Ferguson library today http://t.co/q4EsOQ797T — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • 1/Before twitter, I would have heard far less about both Mike Brown and #Ferguson protests. And it would have been more biased towards cops — (RT @ramez)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • Stopped by the #Ferguson Library again today, where teachers are volunteering to teach students http://t.co/ZbaT9hH6iV — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Jameila White, who gave out water in #Ferguson yesterday, ended up getting maced. Her story: http://t.co/zenavmSrXl http://t.co/IlgvhcBzd1 — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Here's a Vine I shot last night of Jameila after she was maced https://t.co/gKig6z7atq #Ferguson — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Interviewed this 16-year-old volunteer who was watching kids at the #Ferguson library today http://t.co/q4EsOQ797T — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • 1/Before twitter, I would have heard far less about both Mike Brown and #Ferguson protests. And it would have been more biased towards cops — (RT @ramez)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A thing I believe that few believe: Almost all Silicon Valley startup ideas from qualified founders = great ideas. But some are too early.
    • 2/Track startups over multiple decades, what you find is that most ideas do end up working. It's much more a question of "when" not "if".
    • 3/This is interesting for several reasons. First, it means that criticism of the form "that will never happen" is usually misguided & wrong.
    • 4/Second, it means that a much bigger risk for founders is "too early", vs "wrong" or "too late". Often doesn't match feedback from others.
    • 5/To quote Peter Thiel, it is often better to be the last company to market (hit timing right & take down the entire market) vs the first.
    • 6/Third, when you have the timing right, you almost always feel like you're too late. Terrified you've missed the window = great sign.
    • 7/When idea X has been in the air, with repeated attempts to build X, yet most customers are not yet doing/using X, it's never too late.
    • 8/Fourth, founders by definition live in the future, see a world that doesn't yet exist & try to make it so. Nailing timing = hardest thing.
    • 9/Which is often why more pragmatic founders end up building the big & important companies -- the idealists were just too early.
    • 10/Fifth, therefore, most of the great ideas for the next two decades are already known. In labs, in failed startups, in big co prototypes.
    • 11/Those ideas are being dismissed now since the early attempts have't worked. This has the opposite predictive value vs what people think.
    • 12/Quoting @GreatDismal, the future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed -- or it's not yet distributed at all. But it is here.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A thing I believe that few believe: Almost all Silicon Valley startup ideas from qualified founders = great ideas. But some are too early.
    • 2/Track startups over multiple decades, what you find is that most ideas do end up working. It's much more a question of "when" not "if".
    • 3/This is interesting for several reasons. First, it means that criticism of the form "that will never happen" is usually misguided & wrong.
    • 4/Second, it means that a much bigger risk for founders is "too early", vs "wrong" or "too late". Often doesn't match feedback from others.
    • 5/To quote Peter Thiel, it is often better to be the last company to market (hit timing right & take down the entire market) vs the first.
    • 6/Third, when you have the timing right, you almost always feel like you're too late. Terrified you've missed the window = great sign.
    • 7/When idea X has been in the air, with repeated attempts to build X, yet most customers are not yet doing/using X, it's never too late.
    • 8/Fourth, founders by definition live in the future, see a world that doesn't yet exist & try to make it so. Nailing timing = hardest thing.
    • 9/Which is often why more pragmatic founders end up building the big & important companies -- the idealists were just too early.
    • 10/Fifth, therefore, most of the great ideas for the next two decades are already known. In labs, in failed startups, in big co prototypes.
    • 11/Those ideas are being dismissed now since the early attempts have't worked. This has the opposite predictive value vs what people think.
    • 12/Quoting @GreatDismal, the future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed -- or it's not yet distributed at all. But it is here.
    • 13/The key question is: What ideas are widely dismissed today due to having been tried & failed? Answer is the codex to the next 20 years.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @DanielleFong @lorakolodny I honestly don't think that's what's happening (the competition for $). Med & cleantech are just out of fashion.
    • @DanielleFong @lorakolodny The reason I say that: There are huge sums of $ that want to come into venture, beyond what's already here.
    • @DanielleFong @lorakolodny It's a matching problem (LPs -> venture firms -> medical & energy startups) more than a $ supply problem.
    • "We're gonna start with you guys first." -- officer to reporter on arrests #Ferguson — (RT @ryanjreilly)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @lorakolodny Tons :-). eBay = How many Beanie Babies and Pez dispensers can people possibly trade?
    • @lorakolodny Paypal = Beaming money back and forth between Palm Pilots -- that company is doomed!
    • @lorakolodny Google = Don't they know there are already 35 other search engines and that it's impossible to make money with search?
    • @lorakolodny Facebook = A college social network? Don't they realize their entire user base will churn every 4 years?
    • @lorakolodny Cars = Toys for rich people who can afford to employ full-time mechanics; will never catch on broadly.
    • @lorakolodny Federal Express = Can't possibly guarantee overnight delivery, and even if you could, the cost structure will kill it.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @kevinroose Sure, I think there are a whole bunch.
    • @kevinroose Too geographically concentrated, too hard to run truly distributed teams and companies.
    • @kevinroose Which means too hard for smart people all over world to participate, as well as too expensive to live here for many.
    • @kevinroose Too hard to break into the networks if you're not already in them; therefore too hard to get access/be included.
    • @kevinroose Too hard to get the skills to participate and contribute if you can't get to to a top research university to get trained.
    • @kevinroose Shortage of talent vs scope of opportunity then leads to excessively high turnover = too hard to build companies to last.
    • @kevinroose Too geared to broader macroeconomic cycle; too easy for promising companies to get stranded in economic downturns.
    • @kevinroose Probably another half dozen but I'll stop there.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/I really don't get people who go out of their way to crap on the hard work and efforts of founders and startup teams.
    • 2/The simple form of such crapping is pure sour grapes. The advanced version is "Silicon Valley is not trying to solve big problems".
    • 3/In honor of today's outstanding YC demo day, I'll reprise some thoughts from my July 7 tweetstorm on this cynical and pointless canard.
    • 4/There are six logical problems with the false choice of "make trivial apps for 20-something SF hipsters" vs "do things that matter".
    • 5/First, "make trivial apps" vs "do things that matter" are not actually in conflict-there's plenty of room and plenty of money to do both.
    • 6/Second, it's often hard to tell which is which up front. Almost all big world-changers were dismissed by critics as trivial at first.
    • 7/Third, observer bias: Only read consumer tech blogs, only go to consumer tech conferences, think SV only works on consumer tech.
    • 8/Fourth, battling cynical critiques: Founders who articulate the big vision for changing the world get called arrogant and vainglorious.
    • 9/Both criticisms leveled with no cognitive dissonance: Founders either not pursuing big ideas, or out of control egomaniacs if they are.
    • 10/Fifth, subtext often that communication tech/apps in particular somehow aren't important or don't matter, vs energy, education, etc.
    • 11/Why? Communication is the foundation of collaborative work, which is how all the important problems gets solved. People working together.
    • 11/Sixth: Anyone who thinks SV can be doing more/better/different, come join us and participate in building new things, products, companies.
    • 12/The central truth of Silicon Valley is that there's always more to do, and there are always new opportunities to build & contribute.
    • 13/I couldn't be more proud of today's YC amazing demo day crop, spanning more problem domains than ever. Silicon Valley spirit is thriving.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims Everyone's trying. It's arguably a case of George Soros's reflexivity theory.
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims And no question the most participants are the most wrong at both the top and the bottom.
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims And no question the most participants are the most wrong at both the top and the bottom.
    • Google had ~3,000 employees when it went public 10 years ago. It's now approaching 50,000: http://t.co/h8QJsVMBgR http://t.co/cbpRiYMJWs — (RT @fromedome)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims Depends :-). Harsher the market gets, the more they count, for sure.
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims Some of these super-high-growth companies could also flip switch to go highly profitable if they needed to.
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims Also, always ask about both overall margins as well as per-customer margins. Both matter...
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims Many high-growth companies are negative margin overall but positive margin per customer...
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims ...and then at some point they flip to become overall high margin, often very quickly, when they choose to.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @takingpitches @mims @ZoranBasich @ychernova Yes, bigtime.
    • @takingpitches @mims @ZoranBasich @ychernova And those investors got destroyed in 2000-2003.
    • @takingpitches @mims @ZoranBasich @ychernova But, that was happening in parallel with an unprecedented IPO boom at the same time.
    • @takingpitches @mims @ZoranBasich @ychernova What we have now is new/different: public crossover but no IPO boom.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims I think there are different buckets...
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims The bucket your (excellent) story is about: Most of those companies could go public any time they want to.
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims They are choosing not to. (For the most part -- there may be a few who couldn't make it out if they tried.)
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims But another bucket is larger # of more normal "run of the mill" growth companies $50-100M+ revenue.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • Jumped in a car. Picked up someone who got hit by a rubber bullet. #Ferguson http://t.co/urW1prsYXJ — (RT @Awkward_Duck)
    • For those who ask, I'm on twitter because media is out and we need accurate accounts on the ground. #Ferguson — (RT @Awkward_Duck)
    • We literally laid in someone's backyard for what seemed like an eternity while tanks rolled down the streets #Ferguson — (RT @Awkward_Duck)
    • I'm so shaken. They're literally just rolling around throwing tear gas into neighborhoods-not aggressive crowds. #Ferguson — (RT @Awkward_Duck)
    • I was pouring milk over one guys eyes when they came back around and threw another at us. #Ferguson — (RT @Awkward_Duck)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • Members of media asked to separate ourselves from demonstrators. I'm under a car wash. #Ferguson — (RT @elisewho)
    • Flares, blasts in both directions #Ferguson — (RT @elisewho)
    • Smoke thick... I could barely see the quiktrip on the other side of the street. Flares still flying #Ferguson — (RT @elisewho)
    • This smoke burns your eyes and your nose.... It's rough. Cops blasting the car I'm hunkering in now #Ferguson http://t.co/Lmh7bvdM1C — (RT @elisewho)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • They just tear gassed the neighborhood!! #Ferguson http://t.co/61dAon1wEb — (RT @Nettaaaaaaaa)
    • They just tear gassed the neighborhood!! #Ferguson http://t.co/61dAon1wEb — (RT @Nettaaaaaaaa)
    • Is this Baghdad?!? #Ferguson http://t.co/h7JWOY2ds2 — (RT @Nettaaaaaaaa)
    • OMG they shooting bullets! #Ferguson — (RT @Nettaaaaaaaa)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @polemitis @interfluidity That's an elitist stance :-).
    • @polemitis @interfluidity Serious answer -- yes, maybe. But difficult tradeoff for Twitter on multiple fronts.
    • @polemitis @interfluidity Twitter must balance: Needs of existing users, needs of new users, financial targets...
    • @polemitis @interfluidity ...as well as long-term network development and optimization. Optimize for fewer users or grow for more users.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @polemitis @interfluidity Just observing, not judging: There's a fascinating "Internet absolutist" philosophy/value system forming up...
    • @polemitis @interfluidity Absolute net neutrality + absolute no algorithms/user testing + absolute no spying/surveilliance, etc.
    • @polemitis @interfluidity It's new... didn't really exist 10 years ago, maybe not 5 years ago.
    • @polemitis @interfluidity Adherents consider it completely obvious & can't understand why anyone would have any different views.
    • @polemitis @interfluidity Honestly I'm alternating between proud and alarmed :-).
    • “@BeaconReader: 250K people have read story/seen photo produced by crowd funded reporting in #Ferguson http://t.co/M0g5QcS3QB cc @pmarca — (RT @cmschroed)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @blakbillionair @alexisohanian Yep. And no body cams.
    • @blakbillionair @alexisohanian At least as far as anyone knows.
    • @blakbillionair @alexisohanian At least as far as anyone knows.
    • I'm setting up a livestream account on my phone so when I'm down there you have another source. — (RT @minossec)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @mattlynley These stories typically overstate the level of actual worker security for most people in the past...
    • @mattlynley ...while understating the value of new choices and avenues for income to lower income people today. This story does both.
    • @mattlynley ...while understating the value of new choices and avenues for income to lower income people today. This story does both.
    • @mattlynley Very well written though :-).

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @polemitis @cdixon Theory is it's not a tech constraint it's a human brain constraint. Won't be fixed by new tech.
    • @polemitis @cdixon Research at IBM starting in 1960s on man machine symbiosis and user flow. Eg http://t.co/2G1ftLzzAg
    • @polemitis @cdixon Below certain request/response latency human stays totally engaged with machine. Above, not.
    • @polemitis @cdixon To Chris's point, video breaks the rhythm, ejects user out of flow.
    • @polemitis @cdixon Not even taking into account nonsense like preroll ads :-).

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @polemitis Sure there was - 10 digits - YouTube!
    • @polemitis That said I suspect I agree with your point.
    • My husband's startup @renovomotors comes out of stealth mode tomorrow. So excited and proud. #startupwife — (RT @aileenlee)
    • My husband's startup @renovomotors comes out of stealth mode tomorrow. So excited and proud. #startupwife — (RT @aileenlee)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • And that's capt Johnson, of highway patrol, nicely talking to people in the middle of the street #Ferguson @vicenews http://t.co/YOk821rkRr — (RT @alicesperi)
    • Before my phone dies, and hoping not to jinx this, but #Ferguson feels like a huge, happy, block party right now @vicenews — (RT @alicesperi)
    • St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson taking a selfie with a protestor. This is a CHANGED atmosphere. #Ferguson http://t.co/Jm51iZXdvz — (RT @Yamiche)
    • St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson taking a selfie with a protestor. This is a CHANGED atmosphere. #Ferguson http://t.co/Jm51iZXdvz — (RT @Yamiche)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @dawallach @felixsalmon @jzipdamonsta @danprimack Oh yeah.
    • @dawallach @felixsalmon @danprimack But with more volatility. These kinds of graphs always omit volatility/risk for some reason.
    • @dawallach @felixsalmon @danprimack And it never makes sense to talk about returns in the abstract without talking about volatility & risk.
    • Bravo & thank you @ryanallis for extraordinary act of intellectual generosity--paying it forward to next generation: http://t.co/1A3OYliZlA

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @felixsalmon @jzipdamonsta @danprimack That's not right. We want a deep commitment to long-term thinking and steadfastness.
    • @felixsalmon @jzipdamonsta @danprimack There are not many institutions that have committed to VC over 40 years & stayed the course.
    • @felixsalmon @jzipdamonsta @danprimack There are not that many that actually understand the good and the bad to what we do & how we do it.
    • @felixsalmon @jzipdamonsta @danprimack We commit a long time horizon to our startups and we need the same from our investors.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • Outstanding book on how we misremember the past: "The Way We Never Were: American Families And The Nostalgia Trap": http://t.co/iLfQiwW8VV
    • Outstanding book on how we misremember the past: "The Way We Never Were: American Families And The Nostalgia Trap": http://t.co/iLfQiwW8VV
    • Starting with Eden creation myth, Pastoral fantasy is perpetual siren song, pulls us backwards to a nonexistent past. http://t.co/xjw0EuGrIJ
    • Working to make a better world requires creating what has never been, not fantasizing about what never was.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @fmanjoo @cdixon If Uber or Lyft decide they want to own the cars, they could, but they don't have to. It's up to them.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon They have the ability to decide this however they want precisely because they own the customer experience.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon Chris is on key point: For 30yrs, software co's in industries like transportation & health care built & sold software...
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon ...to large established incumbent companies, who then took that software and did whatever they wanted with it...
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon ...which a lot of the time was very little -- it was very rare that the customer experience changed as a result.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon Now, new generation of software companies taking far more aggressive stance of stepping in & owning customer experience.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon Consider difference between Buzzfeed, and alternate scenario where they just made software & sold it to Reuters to use.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @howardlindzon I once almost told a Monica Lewinsky joke to a group that turned out to include her mother.
    • @howardlindzon I once almost told a Monica Lewinsky joke to a group that turned out to include her mother.
    • @howardlindzon Almost.
    • Amazing we ever thought one daily newspaper and one TV channel constituted "news." I wouldn't trust any stream with < 100 sources now. — (RT @vgr)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @sebinsua A company with slow revenue growth and low margins isn't worth very much.
    • @sebinsua So in that state, there is a real danger of investor abandonment followed by customer & employee abandonment.
    • @sebinsua So the window of opportunity to restart growth is very short.
    • @sebinsua Usually too short to restart the growth. Then the company is trapped in limbo... becomes a zombie.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter

    • 1/Tonight I'm tickled pink to be able to talk about our new investment in Buzzfeed! http://t.co/dMA3nKLZL7
    • 2/My partner @cdixon discusses our new investment in Buzzfeed here: http://t.co/cFxpKu9US1
    • 3/“We think of BuzzFeed as a technology company. They embrace Internet culture. Everything is first optimized for mobile and social.”
    • 4/"BuzzFeed has technology at its core. Its 100+ person tech team has created world-class systems... Engineers are first class citizens."
    • 5/And then on top of its technology core, Buzzfeed's reporting team is now routinely committing breathtaking investigative journalism...
    • 6/E.g. @maxseddon at the Malaysian airlines crash site in Ukraine: http://t.co/2U5CfTI28Z
    • 7/E.g. @mike_giglio's war reporting from Syria: http://t.co/TOirxZyE39
    • 8/E.g. @itsjina's amazing story of Rwandan women flexing their political muscles: http://t.co/nNQ6miyGp5
    • 9/E.g. @jlfeder on how Vladimir Putin uses anti-gay policies as a geopolitical strategy: http://t.co/U24iQkeD5q
    • 10/E.g. @AramRoston on how the US covertly arms its proxies around the world: http://t.co/WdbfrD29fa
    • 11/We think the opportunity in front of @peretti, @BuzzFeedBen, @zefrank, and their colleagues is effectively unbounded.
    • 12/We are very excited to work with everyone at Buzzfeed to help them realize their dreams of a profoundly important new media institution.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @panabee In my view, Bitcoin is only a currency as a side effect of everything else that it is.
    • @panabee In my view, Bitcoin is only a currency as a side effect of everything else that it is.
    • @panabee It's the everything else that's most important. The currency part is emergent.
    • How the new generation of anonymous social apps are attempting to head off bullying and bad behavior: http://t.co/PnUSveX27X

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Something I believe that a lot of people I know believe: We live in Golden Age of journalism as measured by quality of top contributors.
    • 2/I've collected 238 members of the press I most respect into this Twitter list: https://t.co/KddFTkoRla -- It's a joy to read every day!
    • 3/As I've discussed before http://t.co/hjZsKprQ5i: Great unexpected side effect of Internet = best journalists have far broader reach now.
    • 4/I can't resist singling out some who fall into category of "drop everything I'm doing to read anything they write" -- out of many.
    • 5/In politics: @MarkHalperin, @jheil, @MarkLeibovich, @nickconfessore, @harrispolitico -- it's routinely amazing how deep they go.
    • 6/Economics: @worstall explains the world we live in better than anyone; joined by @greg_ip and @Neil_Irwin for deep dives into macro econ.
    • 7/Financial crisis made clear quality of reporting by @andrewrsorkin, @KateKellyCNBC, @GZuckerman, @bethanymac12, and @BoydRoddy.
    • 8/At intersection of finance & economics, the ongoing work by @TMFHousel and @matt_levine is truly extraordinary & deeply insightful.
    • 9/Business: Can't wait to see what @adamlashinsky, @jessiwrites, @JPManga, @rparloff, @alansmurray & team do now that Fortune is free of TW.
    • 10/In tech we're blessed with many greats, including @kmaney, @SteveLohr, @martingiles, @kashhill, and @nicoleperlroth: too many to list...
    • 11/For deep substance in complex fields, I love @StevenBrill e.g. http://t.co/HQ3f2bvnmJ and @lawrence_wright e.g. http://t.co/EMz1ppEpKT
    • 12/It's sheer delight to watch the impact @ezraklein @mattyglesias and their colleagues at @voxdotcom are having: I love being voxsplained!
    • 13/And my inner engineer and math nerd marvels at @FiveThirtyEight -- quantitative lens adds tremendously to complex real world topics.
    • 14/Finally, it's really remarkable watching @vicenews bring back full-on gonzo journalism, including in the world's most dangerous places.
    • 15/Over next 5-10 years I think we'll be able to build more tools/systems for reporters like these to maximize their scope & opportunity.
    • 16/Quality of work + explosion of journalism entrepreneurship + rise of 5 billion smartphone world + new tools/systems = interesting times!
    • @pmarca the Ebola outbreak is utterly unsurprising to anyone paying attention to @vicenews last couple of years. — (RT @Jakewk)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Outstanding new op-ed by best living economic historian, Joel Mokyr at Northwestern: http://t.co/FjDWMbQygG
    • 2/"There is nothing like a recession to throw economists into a despondent mood. Much as happened in the late 1930s..."
    • 3/"The economic growth experienced through the 20th century, they tell us, was fleeting. Our children will be no richer than we are."
    • 4/"What is wrong with this story? The one-word answer is technology...digital codification of information = reinvention of invention."
    • 5/"[Terms] like 'IT' don't begin to express the scope of the change...[array of] tools that the digital age places at science's disposal."
    • 6/"The consequences are everywhere, from molecular genetics to nanoscience to research in Medieval poetry."
    • 7/"As science solves problems that were not even imagined, inventors, engineers and entrepreneurs are waiting in the wings..."
    • 8/"...to design new gizmos and processes based on the new discoveries that will continue to improve our lives."
    • 9/"The economy may be facing some headwinds, but the technological tailwind is more like a tornado. Fasten your seat belts."
    • 10/"So: If everything is so good, why is everything so bad? Why the gloominess of so many of my colleagues?"
    • 11/"[GDP and productivity] work for a steel-and-wheat economy, not [ours]... mismeasure the contributions of innovation to the economy."
    • 12/"Many new things are expensive to design, but copy at low/zero cost: Contribute little to GDP even if consumer welfare impact is large."
    • @pmarca https://t.co/fvSaS5nI7R Feininger's newspaper readers painting of 1905 just as obsessed as now — (RT @EmanuelDerman)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @steveniweiss Well, among other things, it's led to the presumption that politicians are either saints, or unfit for office.
    • @steveniweiss Well, among other things, it's led to the presumption that politicians are either saints, or unfit for office.
    • @steveniweiss As opposed to professionals being hired to do a job.
    • @steveniweiss And then we're surprised at the choice of politicians we get.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Something I believe that nobody I know believes: Woodward&Bernstein Watergate coverage precipitated 40yr collapse of trust in print news.
    • 2/That long slow slide of trust can be seen, among other places, in Gallup polls over the years: http://t.co/G4LrmPHGUQ
    • 3/After Nixon resigned 40 years ago this weekend, Washington Post Watergate coverage became exemplar for entire next generation reporters.
    • 4/Political press became obsessed with unearthing scandal, which metastasized throughout print journalism. Gunning for Pulitzer bait.
    • 5/There are clearly scandals that need to be unearthed, like Watergate. BUT: Endless scandal frenzy is exhausting and demoralizing.
    • 6/Particularly when applied indiscriminately across news landscape, and particularly when extrinsic press motivations are so clear.
    • 7/Irony is we now know Woodward&Bernstein less reported Watergate than had story fed to them by Mark Felt, partisan in internal FBI battle.
    • 8/I think the 40 year echo effects of Watergate have more to do with the existential crisis of newspapers than anyone would ever admit.
    • 9/As news consumers, endless barrage of scandal, tragedy, and conflict has real psychological effects. Makes world seem worse than it is.
    • 10/Followup reading that provokes thought: http://t.co/KgLWT1mJV7 http://t.co/Br1nlaLbGj http://t.co/XGwZRQp3w7
    • @pmarca which is why nobody believes Steve Pinker that we’re living in safest, most humane era in history https://t.co/Xspb2NPPBk — (RT @tomguarriello)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @PalmerLuckey So many of the basic ingredients are heavily subsidized by tax dollars (and therefore underpriced).
    • @PalmerLuckey So many of the basic ingredients are heavily subsidized by tax dollars (and therefore underpriced).
    • @PalmerLuckey So they don't have to worry about overall food costs as much as they would if the market worked properly.
    • @PalmerLuckey Why fast food prices stay so low. E.g. McDonald's cheeseburger $1.29.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @jmflatow @zaid The all-time great VC Arthur Rock (Intel, Apple, etc.) wrote an essay once (not available online that I can find)...
    • @jmflatow @zaid ...said that in retrospect he would have done better over 30 years throwing away all the business plans without reading...
    • @jmflatow @zaid ...and just evaluating the people. That the VC's opinion of an idea was unlikely to be additive to the decision process.
    • @jmflatow @zaid Because the great founders will understand the idea and market so much better than the VC will.
    • @jmflatow @zaid I don't know whether I completely agree, but it's a provocative argument that really makes one think.
    • @jmflatow @zaid Same logic may then apply to people picking startups to join as an employee or executive, of course.
    • A golden age for journalism? @pmarca @nmoryl @justinkan and many others trading ideas http://t.co/L9EAKzt9Jy — (RT @frankrose)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter



  • 1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @mims As I suspected :-). The funny thing is that I'm the same way a lot of the time. Takes real effort to counteract.
    • @mims As I suspected :-). The funny thing is that I'm the same way a lot of the time. Takes real effort to counteract.
    • @mims The term I use is "reactionary event horizon" -- as in: OK, I was on board with X, Y, and Z, but this is simply too much/too far.
    • @mims I think I've only ever met a handful of people who don't have a reactionary event horizon. Human nature, I think.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @sriwattsan @cdixon To some extent I'm sure that's true, but current efficiency is SO bad that there's a lot of low-hanging opportunity.
    • @sriwattsan @cdixon The alternative is scaling current Western industrial model to consumers globally which will clearly be destructive.
    • @sriwattsan @cdixon And then in the longer run, telepresence kicks in, I think.
    • @pngmarca @cdixon @pmarca does Jevons paradox not apply in the case of @lyft and its peers? — (RT @sriwattsan)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @HilzFuld 1 Implications of and applications for 5 billion smartphones worldwide - fully connected planet.
    • @HilzFuld 1 Implications of and applications for 5 billion smartphones worldwide - fully connected planet.
    • @HilzFuld 2 Globalization of technology powered entrepreneurship - in every country.
    • @HilzFuld 3 What I call "software as a lever on the world" - optimizing atoms with bits - far more efficient physical resource utilization.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Lessons learned by managers and shareholders of large regulated financial institutions for the next financial crisis:
    • 2/There is no risk of individual executive criminal prosecution whatsoever.
    • 3/Bailouts are guaranteed, particularly for bondholders, for all but the weakest members of the herd.
    • 4/The one thing that will get punished is acceding to the government's request/demand for stronger companies to buy weaker companies.
    • 5/Ultimate fines will be levied against your shareholder base 8 years in the future, not your shareholder base when the sins are committed.
    • 6/"Too big to fail" institutions will be allowed to become bigger than ever, increasing their safety buffer for next time.
    • 7/And for bonus points, regulatory barriers against new competition will be raised, not lowered, further entrenching incumbents.
    • 8/AND: "Too big to jail" is real, according to the Attorney General of the United States: http://t.co/pfQqZL1fWu
    • 9/AND: Regulators on whose watch the last crisis happened, will be allowed to become even bigger and more powerful.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/We @a16z are very excited about the launch of Lyft Line, and I want to explain why! http://t.co/Jbz6oU0GeZ https://t.co/b2TVhF5Lvu
    • 2/Lyft and Lyft Line are an archetypal example of how Silicon Valley is going straight at the hard problems, in this case transportation.
    • 3/A growing number of people know about the amazing consumer utility and convenience created by "a ride on demand whenever you want".
    • 4/And in parallel, services like Lyft make it possible for people who may otherwise not be able to make car payments to keep their cars.
    • 5/In many cities, this results in a triple win: Consumer convenience, driver economic benefits, and improved business/tourism environment.
    • 6/But beyond that, as Lyft and its peers grow, ride sharing becomes increasingly convenient and affordable as *alternative* to owning a car.
    • 7/This leads to environmental benefits: Fewer cars needed -> less natural resource utilization; Network efficiency -> fewer miles driven.
    • 8/Online supply/demand matching eliminates need for cars-for-hire to drive around & look for riders. Network optimization in bits not atoms.
    • 9/Lyft Line is especially environmentally friendly: Facilitates multiple people riding together on same route, still with high convenience!
    • 10/Everyone in world wants equivalent to upper-middle-class American lifestyle. Services like Lyft make possible without destroying planet.
    • 11/Few new tech's deliver so much to so many: riders, drivers, car owners, cities, environment. And to think it just looks like an app :-).

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @mathewi I don't think the axis is anonymous vs non-anonymous.
    • @mathewi I think it's a question of the social dynamics that a system is designed to foster -- encourage or discourage.
    • @mathewi I think it's a question of the social dynamics that a system is designed to foster -- encourage or discourage.
    • Advocacy for Internet anonymity by Karina Rigby from nearly 20 years ago: http://t.co/yJq1hwmw3y ht @onefingershort

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • Interesting take on current era of tech conglomerates (or not!) by very smart Steven Davidoff Solomon: http://t.co/cR0vGkvoUl
    • Interesting take on current era of tech conglomerates (or not!) by very smart Steven Davidoff Solomon: http://t.co/cR0vGkvoUl
    • That said, I don't think it's too early to declare Google's $1.6 billion acquisition of Youtube a success :-). http://t.co/cR0vGkvoUl
    • Untrue for us+our founders: "The goal is no longer building a business but to be in the orbit of these tech giants." http://t.co/cR0vGkvoUl

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @MixedSemaphore Our theory of "full stack" = ownership of the customer experience, more than breadth of product line.
    • @MixedSemaphore Our theory of "full stack" = ownership of the customer experience, more than breadth of product line.
    • @MixedSemaphore i.e. Being the consumer-facing solution, vs being an arms dealer that sells tech to companies that sell to consumers.
    • @garymfreedman Tobacco was only 2% of CVS revenue and shrinking, while they were pivoting to managed pharmacy benefits biz. @pmarca — (RT @BlairReeves)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Really interesting business experiment starting at Procter & Gamble: http://t.co/uHbjdPusAK
    • 2/P&G "will sell or exit 90-100 mostly minor brands in bold attempt to refocus the business behind its 70-80 remaining best-selling brands".
    • 3/"'Less will be much more,' P&G CEO told analysts. 'The objective is growth... We're going to be much more agile and adaptable.'"
    • 4/I think a majority of big company CEOs think they should do this in their own companies. But few ever pull the trigger. Too scary.
    • 5/A common thing you hear at big companies is "SKU proliferation" -- sheer # of items for sale. Bloats organization & makes action harder.
    • 6/Steve Jobs legendarily used strategy of cutting brands & SKUs for Apple's turnaround. But few CEOs have followed suit in last 15 years.
    • 7/Like Steve, AG Lafley at P&G is one of the most respected CEOs in the world. If this works for P&G as well as it did at Apple...
    • 8/...I think the odds go way up that many big company CEOs will pull the trigger on the same strategy. Could be transformative for business.
    • 9/The stakes are high: Whether, and how, big companies will be able to grow their businesses & their # of workers in the future.
    • 10/Further, whether/how big companies will invest in new product creation in the future. Paring the old can be staging for creating the new.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @npacer @gavinandresen @jacobgoldstein There's no need for "on the ground" banking if the endpoints are all smartphones.
    • @npacer @gavinandresen @jacobgoldstein Regulatory compliance can be solved with software.
    • @npacer @gavinandresen @jacobgoldstein Not to say any of this is easy :-). It will all be a lot of hard work to get right.
    • 1) everyone fretting over how millennials are changing American consumption, this is incorrect, a real estate example http://t.co/4VNLg4Bjoh — (RT @NaithanJones)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @istumbler True story: @bhorowitz and I drank with him once for four hours. I brought single malt. He would only drink JW Black.
    • @istumbler @bhorowitz He said, I travel all over the world, to the worst places, to interview the worst people. And there's always JWB.
    • @istumbler @bhorowitz He said, I travel all over the world, to the worst places, to interview the worst people. And there's always JWB.
    • @istumbler @bhorowitz ...So I don't want to get used to anything else, that way I'm always delighted when I get there.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • Thank you @patrickc for introducing me to this marvelous book -- "Cybernation, The Silent Conquest" -- from 1962: http://t.co/k5xiMgS5Jj
    • Thank you @patrickc for introducing me to this marvelous book -- "Cybernation, The Silent Conquest" -- from 1962: http://t.co/k5xiMgS5Jj
    • "Within 20 years, machines will do a credible job of original thinking, certainly as good as most mid-level people." http://t.co/k5xiMgS5Jj
    • "We need beliefs far different...driving us inexorably into a world run by ever more intelligent slaves [machines]." http://t.co/k5xiMgS5Jj

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @peteragriggs @EssexKIRO7 @balajis Rich consumers subsidizing the early stages of the manufacturing ramp...
    • @peteragriggs @EssexKIRO7 @balajis ...which will pay off with the $30K model which a lot more people will be able to afford...
    • @peteragriggs @EssexKIRO7 @balajis ...which will then be accompanied by a much broader supercharger buildout, is my guess.
    • @trengriffin @pmarca "He has also created two, $500k prizes for the first dept that devises a three-year degree" http://t.co/cHuU6C7784 — (RT @justinbauer30)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Answer to last tweetstorm (https://t.co/TkBZV57iI7) is: 1964, in the International Socialist Review -- http://t.co/l9q7kwnl5U
    • 2/Every single argument made by today's "technology will eat all the jobs" brigade is in there, from 50 years ago.
    • 3/Including the claim that "this time is different", that we finally reached the tipping point where the Luddite Fallacy would come true.
    • 4/And including the demand for massive additional government intervention in the economy to correct the resulting inherent structural flaw.
    • 5/Of course, since 1964, enormous numbers of new jobs have been created and quality of life in the US is way up at all income levels.
    • 6/Identifying the fallacies and flaws in logic in the 1964 manifesto given the 50 years that followed is an interesting exercise...
    • 7/...and, I propose, identical to identifying the fallacies and flaws in logic in the equivalent arguments today.
    • 8/Perhaps most interesting change in era: Advocates then were proud to call themselves Socialists. Less so today. History is speaking to us.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Fun: Here is a manifesto on "technology eats all the jobs" which I did not write. Guess who wrote it and when: https://t.co/WPVyr2mKj6
    • 2/"Computers and the Internet...result in a system of almost unlimited productive capacity which requires progressively less human labor."
    • 3/"The technology revolution invalidates the general mechanism so far employed to undergird people’s rights as consumers."
    • 4/"Potentially unlimited output can be achieved by systems of machines which will require little cooperation from human beings."
    • 5/"As machines take over production from people, the men and women who are displaced become dependent on minimal government welfare."
    • 5/"The existence of this paradox is denied or ignored by conventional economic analysis."
    • 6/"Capitalist system designed to produce increasing quantity of goods; distribution of purchasing power would occur almost automatically."
    • 7/"Continuance of the income-through-jobs link now acts as main brake on the almost unlimited capacity of a tech-based productive system."
    • 8/"Adequate distribution of goods+services...: Not how to increase production but how to distribute the abundance created by technology."
    • 9/"Underlying cause of unemployment: capability of machines is rising more rapidly than the capacity of many human beings to keep pace."
    • 10/"As a first step to a new consensus it is essential to recognize that the traditional link between jobs and incomes is being broken."
    • 11/"We urge that the government undertake an unqualified commitment to provide every individual with a basic income as a matter of right."
    • 12/"Distribution of abundance in technological society must [have] criteria strikingly different from economic system based on scarcity."

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @ubuwaits The interesting counter-trend is the renaissance of hand-crafted goods in markets where machines can make things cheaply now.
    • @ubuwaits Handmade clothing, leather products, furniture, etc.
    • @ubuwaits Related, prior gen technologies become fashionable as art forms or lifestyle accessories. Vinyl records, mechanical wristwatches.
    • @pmarca In 1985 the price of an iPhone was infinite. Today $500. Massive deflation. — (RT @ATabarrok)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @a4acw Price deflation of things consumer buy is the same as a pay increase.
    • @a4acw Therefore to the extent that price deflation is a major force in the economy, consumers steadily gain even with flat wages.
    • @a4acw Therefore to the extent that price deflation is a major force in the economy, consumers steadily gain even with flat wages.
    • @pmarca Here's a solid recent research paper on the topic (not on inflation, but growth): http://t.co/38Dzpm9cOb #2MA — (RT @amcafee)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @ramez Unless it's having a bigger effect on the other 94% than is currently believed.
    • @ramez That may be the flaw. The historical view of computers as a silo, vs broader economy-wide impact.
    • @ramez Related, productivity growth may be systematically underestimate for the same reason -- measured in $ of output.
    • @ramez I say "may" to all this -- I don't know, but I wonder.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @_IanHathaway No, but you can put a radically better product into market, and delighted consumers will do a lot of the pushing.
    • @_IanHathaway And it's not like there's some alternate method where you can beg for permission from long-captured regulators.
    • @_IanHathaway And it's not like there's some alternate method where you can beg for permission from long-captured regulators.
    • @ATabarrok @pmarca > @NYTimes editorial is trailing indicator. NYT/Krugman r backing decriminalization after Gallup Poll shows support > 58% — (RT @chrisgrayson)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @_IanHathaway I think that can happen but more often it happens in the other direction.
    • @_IanHathaway The technology changes and then we change to adapt. The arguments against fall away naturally.
    • @_IanHathaway Certainly this happens generationally; kids don't really care what their parents think of a new technology.
    • @marcelsalathe @pmarca @onion2k @mattwridley @sapinker See also "Before the Industrial Revolution" to see just how godawful life was then — (RT @ryanp2)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @_IanHathaway I can't prove any of this but this is my guess from what I see on the ground...
    • @_IanHathaway Technology (computers+Internet+robotics etc.) can be used both by big companies to get bigger, or by new companies to disrupt.
    • @_IanHathaway The "big get bigger" consolidation effect comes from scale economics including ability to fund major IT projects.
    • @_IanHathaway You hate to be a regional bank or retailer or light manufacturer competing against global gorillas with huge IT budgets.
    • @_IanHathaway Many industries were still very fragmented 10-20 years ago; payoff from computers+Internet = more consolidation in many cases.
    • @_IanHathaway Then against that you have the tech-driven startups, but there are only so many of them & they take time to develop.
    • @_IanHathaway But then even when tech-drive startups disrupt older firms, there can still be winner-take-all effects among the new winners.
    • @_IanHathaway So again, a secular force arguing against fragmentation and towards consolidation.
    • @_IanHathaway And so, as we see now: hyperscale global gorillas win + best tech-driven innovative startups win, but middle falls over.
    • @_IanHathaway So then there are two arguments for how this could change over the *next* 10-20 years.
    • @_IanHathaway The first is democratization of business IT capabilities via tech trends like cloud/software-as-a-service/mobile.
    • @_IanHathaway Arguably we are entering the first era when smaller businesses can adopt + incorporate new tech faster than bigger businesses.
    • @_IanHathaway And then second, the rise of the "full stack startup" model where more tech startups invade established industries directly.
    • @_IanHathaway See http://t.co/HJI1nL97C9 -- very different innovation model than traditional "tech arms dealer" approach.
    • @_IanHathaway If I were e.g. insurance company or consumer lending company, I'd be far more worried today about new competition vs before.
    • @_IanHathaway You want to bet on trend #1 (revenge of medium-size businesses) if you believe in specialization by customer segment.
    • @_IanHathaway And you want to bet against trend #1 if you believe in mass commoditization of goods and services at huge global scale.
    • @_IanHathaway You want to bet on trend #2 (full stack startups) if you believe the new tech is powerful enough to radically reshape things.
    • @_IanHathaway You want to bet against trend #2 if you believe it's just Silicon Valley getting all uppity and arrogant again :-).
    • @_IanHathaway Finally, the remaining big question is the balance of political forces that are pro-incumbent vs pro-innovation.
    • @_IanHathaway I've talked about this a fair amount here: http://t.co/yTEGMu0pUu
    • @_IanHathaway I attempt to stay positive on that topic, but the political and regulatory wiring in favor of incumbency is quite strong.
    • @onion2k @pmarca @mattwridley I think “Better Angels of our Nature” by Harvard’s @sapinker is the ultimate resource http://t.co/eJaxSAy2Bb — (RT @marcelsalathe)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • The industries that use big data best are those w physical goods - @pmarca #DDC2014 — (RT @kerrywcooper)
    • The industries that use big data best are those w physical goods - @pmarca #DDC2014 — (RT @kerrywcooper)
    • Industries that @pmarca sees as ripe for a more data-driven approach: finance, education, healthcare. #DDC2014 — (RT @mixpanel)
    • Healthcare, education and finance next to use big data and bring down costs @pmarca @mixpanel #DDC2014 — (RT @kerrywcooper)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @DanielleMorrill Yep! Often straight DCF.
    • @DanielleMorrill Tend to be (but not always) higher margin, lower growth, lower ambition, lower tech.
    • @DanielleMorrill Tend to be (but not always) higher margin, lower growth, lower ambition, lower tech.
    • Saw a @pmarca retweet, spent 90 mins watching Peter Thiel. Wrote this post. Twitter is meaningful. http://t.co/4OPpSrRCA5 — (RT @TomShakely)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @patrickc It's not just 70 years of failure. It's 70 years of not even any real theoretical progress. Alan Turing would be flabbergasted.
    • @patrickc "And then magic happens" cranks my skepticism way up. That so rarely actually happens.
    • @patrickc In contrast, for example, there was a 150+ year theoretical run-up to the computer.
    • @patrickc Babbage and Lovelace understood how it would work even if they couldn't build it.
    • @patrickc The last thing I want to be is a tech skeptic :-). But I lose the plot when the handwaving starts, which Strong AI seems to spark.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @patrickc I think computers will continue to evolve down the same kind of parallel path they've been evolving down for 70 years.
    • @patrickc I think they will just become increasingly powerful and sophisticated tools that we will use.
    • @patrickc I don't see any reason to believe there will suddenly be some jump where all of a sudden they are like super-human intelligence.
    • @patrickc Seventy years of AI research and we have yet to make a computer that does anything surprising at all.
    • @patrickc Put another way, I think computers complement humans, vs compete with humans, and that continues indefinitely.
    • @patrickc Or another way: There is no such thing as Strong AI, there is only increasingly and arbitrarily sophisticated Weak AI.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @patrickc OK, #1, what are 7 billion free, empowered, connected people with net-connected supercomputers going to build by end of century?
    • @patrickc #2, What are our odds of staving off catastrophic global disaster over that time period, whether global warming, bioterror, etc.
    • @patrickc #3, When does breakthrough life extension technology arrive, and what impact will it have on society and economics?
    • Incumbents 'can' incrementally innovate, but will they have same level of commitment?BMW & Tesla. Via @sharmavivek10 http://t.co/s9SQE9C0cP — (RT @SuB8u)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @dkimerling They had a comprehensive comparative analysis of all consumer Internet business models and all countries.
    • @dkimerling It turned out that between 2001 and 2008 there had been a ton of development of new net business models mostly outside the US.
    • @dkimerling Most US-based investors just missed it, too preoccupied with the US and too bearish and dismissive after the dot com crash.
    • @dkimerling Whereas DST could say, "For X business model with Y user base in Z country, expected revenue and profit is $A" with confidence.
    • @dkimerling And hence DST was bidding on Facebook based on a model that their US-based competition did not have.
    • @dkimerling And generally their US-based competition refused to even conceive that it was possible that DST had an information advantage.
    • One app I'd like to see is Bitcoin contracts automatically adjudicated and settled by the network. — (RT @cdixon)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @charlesjo @CarrieMantha Oh yes, that's continuous.
    • @charlesjo @CarrieMantha Oh yes, that's continuous.
    • @charlesjo @CarrieMantha One of the come-to-Jesus moments for a new CEO is when they realize negative people have to go.
    • @charlesjo @CarrieMantha ...since it flies in the face of all of the "encourage dissent" and "listen to your people" conventional wisdom.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @tomstandage Arguably the early path dependence determines a lot more of the long-term outcome than we think...
    • @tomstandage ...e.g. by tilting expectations towards functionality best served by an open or closed approach depending on how it starts.
    • @tomstandage One might guess that if "search" and "social" had started open, the requirements would be different than we now experience.
    • @tomstandage E.g. expectations of what networks or information retrieval systems were, were very different pre TCP/IP and HTML respectively.
    • @tomstandage Centralized approach may not be able to satisfy requirements derived from decentralized assumptions and vice versa.
    • @tomstandage So maybe how it starts determines how it ends.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @NickHanauer You're talking past my point, which is as follows: I grew up in ground zero of the voter base you're talking about.
    • @NickHanauer Rural Wisconsin; main industries dairy farming and light industry, highly exposed to all of the trends you discuss.
    • @NickHanauer What people in that world experience is that every time they pick up a newspaper or watch TV...
    • @NickHanauer There's some expert or academic or intellectual, typically from a coast, explaining why we're voting the wrong way.
    • @NickHanauer And in almost every case it comes across as patronizing and condescending, one step away from being called stupid.
    • @NickHanauer And then the experts are amazed, each time, why the farmers and light industrial workers and housewives don't vote as expected.
    • @NickHanauer This was, for example, a major contributing factor to why Nixon got elected not once but twice.
    • @NickHanauer And why Reagan was so loved throughout much of the middle of the country, and even George W Bush.
    • @NickHanauer So my point is, the attitude of "those voters are dumb and are voting wrong" is both unhelpful and likely to backfire.
    • @NickHanauer For some reason, even regular people in the middle of the country think they can figure out what's in their own interest.
    • @NickHanauer And telling them they aren't and can't is indeed patronizing and condescending.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @princebhojwani I think that's increasingly what will happen as all of the user-centric logic moves into phone apps.
    • @princebhojwani Phone has better navigation & maps, your media, your calendar (travel destinations), voice & text messaging, etc. etc.
    • @princebhojwani More and more what's running on the phone is eating what used to run in the car (or never ran in the car).
    • @princebhojwani So does your car work well with your phone? Not sure people will buy cars that don't in the future.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @MaryTrigiani @robreich That whole thing is hysterical!
    • @MaryTrigiani @robreich When I was in college, dominant critique: Students all bunch of unmotivated Gen-X slackers, will never do anything.
    • @MaryTrigiani @robreich Now, exact opposite: Students all bunch of overmotivated achievers, too focused on performance and results.
    • @MaryTrigiani @robreich Also Deresiewicz gives away the plot in Generation Sell: He doesn't like/trust business, except his own book sales.
    • @MaryTrigiani @robreich Entertaining for sure. I wish him luck with his grift :-).

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @Wolfson @joshk Two reasons why that isn't routinely what happens:
    • @Wolfson @joshk (1) Then we could only invest in a much smaller # of companies than we do now. The $ adds up across rounds!
    • @Wolfson @joshk (2) Risk of losing objectivity by being too emotionally close to the companies we're already in...
    • @Wolfson @joshk ...when you get close to these companies, it can be hard to tell "double down on winners" vs "good money after bad"...
    • @Wolfson @joshk ...and so having the external market validation of a new investor helps make sure we don't smoke our own exhaust too much.
    • @Wolfson @joshk Occasionally VCs will double down on their winners and keep them in-house (like Sequoia did with Whatsapp)...
    • @Wolfson @joshk ...but equally often that leads to the "good money after bad" effect and can cause a lot of damage to a portfolio.
    • @Wolfson @joshk None of this has anything to do with any specific company, of course. This is about portfolio management over time.
    • @Wolfson @joshk Had Airware not been able to raise new outside money from someone like KP, we certainly would have put more $ in :-).
    • @pmarca @amyjokim the literature of the opposition can be fertile ground for a thoughtful mind. — (RT @cmp_05)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @zeynep Again, if you don't want machines taking care of old people, then demographics will solve that problem for you.
    • @zeynep Demographics suggests the core problem 50 years from now will be the opposite of the current concern: not enough working age people.
    • @zeynep ...relative to retirees. Let the working age get too high, ability to pay for welfare of the elderly comes into serious question.
    • @zeynep Again here, productivity growth has to be the answer, smaller % of working age people will need to produce a lot more for everyone.
    • @zeynep And productivity growth comes from... automation, which comes from... technology.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @beowulf127 Yep, I don't understand why people think gov't officials can call markets any more than anyone else...
    • @beowulf127 ...and history shows they're just as bad at it as everyone else.
    • @beowulf127 ...and history shows they're just as bad at it as everyone else.
    • One week left! Annotate to win a signed chapter of @bhorowitz's book The Hard Thing About Hard Things! http://t.co/HFfg9mTgKs — (RT @newsgenius)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @ferenstein The three benefits of the inbound flow of people we are getting from illegal immigration despite the illegality:
    • @ferenstein 1. Economic: Lowering average working age & increasing birth rate, helping long-run US fiscal outlook tremendously.
    • @ferenstein 2. Human capital: Amazingly motivated and energetic people who work incredibly hard once they get here, add to talent pool.
    • @ferenstein 3. Cultural: Continue to expand the diversity, vibrancy, and energy of American culture, as immigrants always have.
    • An entrepreneur today: "I came to this country with nothing. I have sacrificed a lot. I am building something to last. I will win." — (RT @bznotes)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @ferenstein I do think that both legal and illegal immigration are big net positives for the US. Particularly illegal immigration right now.
    • @ferenstein I do think that both legal and illegal immigration are big net positives for the US. Particularly illegal immigration right now.
    • @ferenstein (I don't mean "illegal immigration" itself is good, I mean it's net plus we are getting those people despite the illegality.)
    • Helsinki's ambitious plan to make car ownership pointless in 10 years http://t.co/EiwHXYD1Ip via @guardian — (RT @benjridgway)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Common thing one hears in US is "Political system broken; Founding Fathers never intended politics to be dominated by moneyed interests."
    • 2/But in 1776, voting "restricted to property owners—most of whom are white male Protestants over the age of 21". http://t.co/x2AVaTBaEa
    • 3/In 1789, George Washington was elected President. "Only 6% of the population can vote." http://t.co/PpX4aLQcM8
    • 4/Not until 1856 was voting expanded even to all white men (eliminating property ownership requirement) -- http://t.co/PpX4aLQcM8
    • 5/1868, voting extended to former slaves (at least in theory), but still explicitly defined as male.
    • 6/Women could first vote starting in 1890 in Wyoming (!). In 1920, 19th Amendment passed, giving women right to vote throughout US.
    • 6/Throughout late 1800s and early 1900s, lots of battles for and against rights of other groups e.g. Native Americans & immigrants to vote.
    • 7/Of course, massive battles in the 1960's to extend practical right to vote to African-Americans; some battles continue to this day.
    • 8/Not until 1971 (year I was born) did voting age get lowered to 18, despite 18-21 year olds being conscripted & sent to war throughout.
    • 9/Founding Fathers arguably designed US system specifically to be dominated by moneyed interests, aka white male Protestant landowners.
    • 10/We have far broader-based voting and political participation today than ever before, due to hard work by many activists over 200 years.
    • 11/And we're still by no means perfect; lots of progress yet to be made. But we're leaps and bounds ahead of 50-100-150-200 years ago.
    • 12/And no, I'm not watching the World Cup finals :-).

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @automin George Gilder for sure, "Telecosm" and his newsletters if you can get them.
    • @automin Also Kevin Kelly's blog archives are really good.
    • @automin Also Kevin Kelly's blog archives are really good.
    • .@pmarca OK the Seventh and LAST shelf on Amazon Listmania http://t.co/7Njqw48O4h (with a little joke at the end) :-) — (RT @MasterMarquette)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @aaronlarue I think in practice it requires truly disruptive innovation in the Christensen definition.
    • @aaronlarue I think in practice it requires truly disruptive innovation in the Christensen definition.
    • @aaronlarue It took Microsoft to end the IBM monopoly, and it took Google and Apple to end the Microsoft monopoly.
    • @aaronlarue "Innovator's Dilemma" still the best book on the topic, if you haven't read it.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @aaronlarue My personal view is that distinctions between needs and wants are almost entirely arbitrary.
    • @aaronlarue In a lot of ways, the story of human economic development is things starting as wants and becoming needs.
    • @aaronlarue So I doubt that's actually a useful framework to consider the other questions.
    • @aaronlarue On monopoly, I think Peter has an idealized view. All monopolies have the same slogan: "We don't care because we don't have to."
    • @aaronlarue You can absolutely count on a monopoly to prioritize retaining & strengthening the monopoly over everything else inc innovation.
    • @aaronlarue Legislation and regulation are not very useful for dealing with monopolies due to phenomenon of regulatory capture.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @DanielleMorrill And when they do cross over into tech and start violating their own valuation rules, historically it's been a topping sign.
    • @DanielleMorrill They tend to do terribly on those investments and withdraw from the market entirely in short order.
    • @DanielleMorrill So of course that's an interesting lens to look at the current dynamic of TPG et al doing so much tech growth equity.
    • @DanielleMorrill "This time is different" argument in 3 parts: death/delay of IPOs, success in tech are bigger now, & trad PE returns down.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @DanielleMorrill Traditional PE and growth equity firms can only invest on a basis of multiples of positive cash flow.
    • @DanielleMorrill Both because that's how they analyze everything and because they often put leverage on top of their equity.
    • @DanielleMorrill They cannot, and will not, impute intangible value that you can't see in the form of current positive cash flow.
    • @DanielleMorrill So they effectively cannot cross over into what you and I would consider "tech", where valuations exceed ~10x current CF.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @BenedictEvans I'm not sure I believe that innovation moves in the sense of an unchangeable force.
    • @BenedictEvans I think more often companies in a given layer just stop innovating, but could start again.
    • @BenedictEvans As example, virtually everyone in late 90's believed innovation in Internet search was over, had moved to other layers.
    • @BenedictEvans As another example, virtually everyone in late 90's believed innovation in enterprise systems software was over -> VMWare.
    • @BenedictEvans I guess I think mostly that innovation is a choice. Not easy, but still a choice.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @maheshsharma Sure, there are actually a few intersecting problems.
    • @maheshsharma First, often some significant % of early employees end up with too much stock, particularly the ones who don't work out.
    • @maheshsharma And then you have trouble both re-upping the ones you really want to keep as well as being generous enough with new people.
    • @maheshsharma Then morale issues because early people who aren't that good or working that hard make so much more money than later people.
    • @maheshsharma You can always solve with yet more stock, but then you're being punitive to your earliest investors who took the most risk.
    • @maheshsharma For the really successful companies, these can be tens of billions of dollars of mistakes.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 0/Ten + one ways to grievously damage your high-growth tech startup, and Silicon Valley in the process:
    • 1/Only hire, and only train/motivate/incent your managers to hire -- don't optimize efficiency, don't do performance management, don't fire.
    • 2/Founders, sell too much of your own personal stock too quickly, alienating your employees and questioning your long-term commitment.
    • 3/Let private stock sales by employees get out of hand: create hit-and-run culture and take on burdens of being public before going public.
    • 4/Dilute the s*** out of cap table: be sloppy & undisciplined w/stock grants to early employees, plant morale land mine for later employees.
    • 5/Maximize absolute valuation of each growth round: make later rounds harder and harder to achieve, until you trigger disastrous down round.
    • 6/Let non-SV investors suck you into terrible structural terms on growth rounds: guarantee massive trauma if anything goes slightly wrong.
    • 7/Go public too soon, before you're a fortress, before you can withstand all the assaults: ending in stock price death spiral & train wreck.
    • 8/Pour huge money into overly glorious new headquarters, signaling to employees "we've made it, we're amazing", then repeat two years later.
    • 9/Confuse conference circuit & party scene with actual work. Encourage alcohol & drugs, party culture in company, value ballers over nerds.
    • 10/Refuse to take HR seriously: allow terrible internal manager & employee behavior to catalyze into catastrophic ethical & legal crisis.
    • 11/And the one that will actually kill you: Assume more cash is always available at higher & higher valuations, forever.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @tummler10 @csuwildcat @KevBeirne I mean it's a philosophical question about how you think about how to measure quality of life.
    • @tummler10 @csuwildcat @KevBeirne e.g. How would you feel if absolute quality of life doubled for everyone...
    • @tummler10 @csuwildcat @KevBeirne e.g. How would you feel if absolute quality of life doubled for everyone...
    • @tummler10 @csuwildcat @KevBeirne ...but if income inequality also doubled at the same time? Good or bad?

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @stevecheney Later! In college.
    • @stevecheney BASIC and assembly through age 18.
    • @stevecheney BASIC and assembly through age 18.
    • Convinced most upper/lower GI diagnostics will be done via spatially aware ingestables and wireless telemetry within 10 years. — (RT @pkedrosky)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/One persistent canard from would-be SV critics is "Silicon Valley isn't building/funding the right things, aka solutions to big problems".
    • 2/There are six logical problems with the false choice of "make trivial apps for 20-something SF hipsters" vs "do things that matter".
    • 3/First, "make trivial apps" vs "do things that matter" are not actually in conflict-there's plenty of room and plenty of money to do both.
    • 4/Second, it's often hard to tell which is which up front. Almost all big world-changers were dismissed by critics as trivial at first.
    • 5/Third, observer bias: Only read consumer tech blogs, only go to consumer tech conferences, think SV only works on consumer tech.
    • 6/Founders of non-consumer-tech startups routinely find same pundits mounting criticism have little interest in hearing about other domains.
    • 7/This is exacerbated by SF-centric consumer tech party scene--other domains in SV don't have the same party culture, just nerds at work.
    • 8/New arrivals to SV get sucked into SF party scene, and never make it to the South Bay industrial parks where everything else is happening.
    • 9/Fourth, battling cynical critiques: Founders who articulate the big vision for changing the world get called arrogant and vainglorious.
    • 10/Both criticisms leveled with no cognitive dissonance: Founders either not pursuing big ideas, or out of control egomaniacs if they are.
    • 11/Fifth, subtext often that communication tech/apps in particular somehow aren't important or don't matter, vs energy, education, etc.
    • 12/I think this is 100% incorrect: Communication tech/apps including Internet are the foundation for everything else we'll do for 100 years.
    • 13/Why? Communication is the foundation of collaborative work, which is how all the important problems gets solved. People working together.
    • 14/Sixth: Anyone who thinks SV can be doing more/better/different, come join us and participate in building new things, products, companies!
    • 15/Jump in, the water's warm! SV draws talent from all over the world & all walks of life; nothing preventing any critic from contributing.
    • 16/As my old boss Jim Barksdale used to say, "We have plenty of uniforms your size." Many opportunities to contribute & make a difference!
    • 17/And, of course, tech startup ecosystem now expanding worldwide. Opportunities to contribute from anywhere abound, linked via Internet.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/"Halt And Catch Fire" takes flak from critics for being melodramatic--yet captures real emotional intensity of actual tech startups well.
    • 2/Joe, Cameron, Gordon, Bos all accurate archetypes. I know dozens of each. Must come together to do great things. Can't alone.
    • 3/Tonight's episode best since pilot -- without spoiling, key is both Cameron and Gordon are right. Real tension at heart of many startups.
    • 4/Again without spoiling, final question asked by Cameron's new program still at the heart of our industry 30 years later.
    • 5/Show also shows why founders often don't start 2nd company, or sometimes even talk to former partners after company is over. Too intense.
    • 6/Finally, show is dead on about overwhelming market power of IBM at that time. Seeds of collapse had already been planted but no one knew.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Cleaned-up tweetstorm on "the reverse rules of new technology" -- expressed ironically! -- and labeled as such :-).
    • 2/One thing we know about new gadgets: They can be judged based on their first versions since that's what they'll look like forever. #irony
    • 3/Each new technology arrives into the world w/the perfect universal use case pre-identified. If it doesn't, it flops & dies forever. #irony
    • 4/Any new technology needs immediate widespread cultural acceptance. If it's just used by nerds early on, it'll never go mainstream. #irony
    • 5/New technology products must be immediately cash-flow profitable; otherwise you have clear evidence idea was stupid from the start. #irony
    • 6/Any new tech product that isn't immediately affordable for everyone will never decline in price & will just exacerbate inequality. #irony
    • 7/Any new tech must immediately provide immense utility to the world or shame on you for not "solving big problems". #irony HT @commagere

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest Yes, who it's coming from and when it was sent.
    • @dsquareddigest Technically the "Yo" part is irrelevant. It's a message that's 100% context.
    • @dsquareddigest Added benefits: One click send, much safer to use in car, no need to remember anything except context.
    • @dsquareddigest Also ideally suited for new generation smart watches coming to market soon (small screens, simple input).

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @HeatherDJohn Oh, yes.
    • @HeatherDJohn Possible selection bias, though. Generally any entrepreneur who pitches a full partnership of a VC firm...
    • @HeatherDJohn ...has run a considerable gauntlet to get there -- female and male. So they all tend to be tough determined & pretty fearless.
    • The Man Making Silicon Valley Go Crazy for Hardware | Design | WIRED http://t.co/FxwfX9VckX "Mr. China" @liamcasey doing his thing. — (RT @RonP)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion Yet Democrats are holding high-skilled immigration hostage.
    • @Noahpinion Yet Democrats are holding high-skilled immigration hostage.
    • @Noahpinion Nobody on the side of principle in this one. All politics.
    • Is China getting ready for a bloody crackdown on Hong Kong protesters? http://t.co/2nNqdcY3w7 — (RT @Noahpinion)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • "I've never seen so many people before." Man looking on from Pacific Place as marchers still go strong at 8 #july1hk http://t.co/zT9Fu2zHbe — (RT @jchristychoi)
    • "I've never seen so many people before." Man looking on from Pacific Place as marchers still go strong at 8 #july1hk http://t.co/zT9Fu2zHbe — (RT @jchristychoi)
    • Tens of thousands of pro-democracy protesters marching in Hong Kong, angry w/ Beijing http://t.co/9jnkfh7ceS #july1hk http://t.co/qAX8BuvSqg — (RT @moneyries)
    • Streets in Wan Chai still crowded with protesters singing and marching #hk71 #july1hk http://t.co/3Qormm1ki6 — (RT @AgnesBun)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Gallup surveys on confidence in institutions are endlessly interesting: http://t.co/qHx0Ce6YCz
    • 2/High-trust US institutions (above or near 50%): Military, small business, police, churches.
    • 3/Low-trust US institutions: Medical system, Supreme Court, Presidency, public schools, banks.
    • 4/Almost-no-trust US institutions (<25%): Justice system, newspapers, organized labor, big business, Internet news, TV news, Congress.
    • 5/Conventional glass-half-empty argument is terrible erosion of trust & competency in key institutions, decline & fall of the United States.
    • 6/Alternate glass-half-full argument: Large centralized institutions *shouldn't* be highly trusted: monopolies/oligopolies let people down.
    • 7/Alternate arg cont'd: Lack of trust in institutions motivates construction of competitive alternatives better attuned to we the people.
    • 8/Alternate arg cont'd: Large centralized institutions were 20th century; flexible, responsive, accountable organizations for 21st century.
    • 9/I don't think the answers are at all straightforward. But I think this debate is going to inform a lot of next 30 years of politics.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @asaxena "VC returns" is a flawed concept. VC is not an asset class, it's a boutique industry. Small % of investors generate most profits.
    • @asaxena The question I pose is not about all startups. It's about the top startups that in the past would have IPO'd much quicker.
    • @asaxena We have a choice, those top startups can either IPO fast at low valuations like Microsoft, Oracle, and Amazon did...
    • @asaxena ...or they can IPO later at high valuations like Facebook did. Big difference for public market returns over time.
    • @asaxena The point people keep missing is that I'm arguing against my own personal self-interest on this.
    • @asaxena As a private investor with access to lots of private LP funding, I make more money if the winners stay private for much longer.
    • @asaxena But on the other hand, I think it would healthier for society if the gains from the winners were more broadly distributed.
    • @asaxena But to be clear, with my own self-interest in mind, I'm just fine the way things are. Happy to take all the gains on private side.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @abrams Whatever you think about them, they were both billion-$ revenue companies when they went out.
    • @abrams Whatever you think about them, they were both billion-$ revenue companies when they went out.
    • @abrams You can still take billion-$ revenue companies public, no question :-).
    • @pmarca @BenedictEvans thought you two would enjoy this analysis of homescreen apps http://t.co/beGckW1rmC — (RT @RichBTIG)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @BenedictEvans @cdixon A year ago Facebook was being accused of making you feel unhappy by showing you too many *happy* things...
    • @BenedictEvans @cdixon http://t.co/xQgQFIMsYv
    • @BenedictEvans @cdixon Faced with that question, what would you do? Show more sad things? Show more happy things? Or study the topic?
    • This honesty from @DanielleMorrill on fundraising is profound - must read for every investor and entrepreneur: https://t.co/Tz05E8u5Tt — (RT @stevecheney)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @lagoaThiago I was never at SGI -- although my partner @bhorowitz was.
    • @lagoaThiago @bhorowitz Amazing how much has changed since then -- but also how much hasn't.
    • @lagoaThiago @bhorowitz Amazing how much has changed since then -- but also how much hasn't.
    • @lagoaThiago @bhorowitz Including irony that Google is now in old SGI buildings -- both employing many of industry's best engineers!

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @EpicureanDeal That's my point. "White and Asian" = a large % of the United Nations. The claim is specious.
    • @EpicureanDeal If there was active discrimination or "mirrortocracy" going on, it would be all white.
    • @EpicureanDeal The reality is exactly the opposite. All of these companies are desperate for talent. They'll take anyone who can contribute.
    • @EpicureanDeal We wish there were purple, green, and orange people to hire.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • Helpful hint: Whenever you watch TV, read a book, open a newspaper, or talk to another person, someone's manipulating your emotions!
    • Helpful hint: Whenever you watch TV, read a book, open a newspaper, or talk to another person, someone's manipulating your emotions!
    • @pmarca And there are excellent odds they're measuring the results and tuning their manipulation accordingly...
    • Net Neutrality dilemma: we want carriers to be utilities *and* expect massive innovation in broadband #TANSTAAFL http://t.co/yOjbd56vYH — (RT @fmbutt)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • Pretty clear data across presentations at #premoney that economic value is being captured in private markets. All the action is private. — (RT @semil)
    • Awesome #premoney presentation on shifts in capital markets by @skupor. IMO he's a16z's secret weapon. — (RT @semil)
    • Scott Kupor of Andreessen Horowitz says "This is not a bubble." #premoney http://t.co/36UhN4ymkH — (RT @Mattermark)
    • Scott Kupor of Andreessen Horowitz says "This is not a bubble." #premoney http://t.co/36UhN4ymkH — (RT @Mattermark)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/New study on interplay between diversity and success in VC investing in startups -- really interesting -- http://t.co/Tj4WBKK9YQ
    • 2/"The more [ethnic and educational] affinity there is between two VCs investing in a firm, the less likely the firm will succeed." !!
    • 3/"VCs have strong tendency to team w/other VCs whose ethnic & educational backgrounds are similar... turns out to be bad for business."
    • 4/"Two VCs from same undergraduate school 34.4 percent more likely to collaborate...and increased by 39.2 percent if same ethnicity."
    • 5/"Odds of success of invested company down 17% if two VCs worked at same company; -19% same undergrad school; -20% same ethnicity."
    • 6/"The lack of success among similar investors seemed to lie in the decisions that *followed* the investment...due to 'groupthink'."
    • 7/Side note: Last names of the three researchers who wrote the paper -- Gompers, Xuan and Mukharlyamov :-).

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @fmanjoo @cdixon I don't think that's the only factor, but I bet it contributed.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon Recall that patent trolling only became an institutional investment asset class not that long ago.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon Lawsuits are their revenue model, so I bet this correlates for their need to give their investors tangible returns.
    • Amazing color (yes, color!) photos from World War I from @TIME: http://t.co/wyGHEbFfg9

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @interfluidity My best guess: Is it truly in service of making the best product?
    • @interfluidity My partners and I think Christensen theory on disruption & interplay of horizontal & vertical structures needs a new part...
    • @interfluidity His analysis of how products go from integrated to horizontally disaggregated makes total sense, however...
    • @interfluidity At some point the horizontally disaggregated industry (always? sometimes?) loses the plot & makes crappy final products.
    • @interfluidity That's when a rebundled superior product can win, against all expert predictions. Customers do care & will change.
    • @interfluidity Apple is the ultimate case study. EVERY outside observer said they had to unbundle when Steve decided to rebundle.
    • @interfluidity How much was his genius vs how much was PC industry products had unacceptably degraded over its 20 year run? Who can tell?

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Late night tweetstorm addendum to earlier series on unbundling (https://t.co/ecgBveoiMj) and rebundling (https://t.co/0fw9alDKh3)...
    • 2/Younger followers asked me to expand on DEC/Sun/Microsoft unbundling: older history, therefore useful to study as precedent for our time.
    • 3/Once upon a time (1950s-1960s), businesses mostly bought computers from IBM, & IBM also bundled in all the software & services you'd need.
    • 4/IBM bundled offerings were extremely expensive, while demand for computers spread to departments & smaller businesses who had less $.
    • 5/So DEC unbundled the computer itself from the total bundle & sold it for less $ to customers who could then write their own software.
    • 6/But a DEC computer itself was a bundle of proprietary components: VAX hardware, VMS operating system, RDB database, etc.
    • 7/In the 80's, Sun came along & sold a similar power computer to DEC's for 1/4 the cost w/unbundled components: Unix OS + Motorola chips.
    • 8/DEC responded by going upmarket & becoming more like IBM; Sun & other Unix workstation vendors chewed through their market + grew it more.
    • 9/Critical point: At point when DEC started to tip over, its integrated offering was as close to perfect as our industry will ever see.
    • 10/Ask people who were working then (like me) and they'll tell you to this day that they miss VAX/VMS & how productive they could be on it.
    • 11/Meanwhile Microsoft & Intel came along and fully implemented the unbundled low-cost computer, first PCs and then Windows-based servers.
    • 12/Sun responded to Microsoft/Intel by rebundling: Rebuilding itself in DEC's image with Sparc chip, Solaris OS -- proprietary HW+SW stack.
    • 13/Again, Sun got close to perfection as an integrated system when unbundled Microsoft+Intel & Linux+Intel went broad & forced sale of co.
    • 14/Picking up thread with Microsoft: Microsoft has spent last 15 years rebundling, rebuilding itself in DEC's image much like Sun. Now + HW!
    • 15/Once again, bundled Microsoft stack very close to perfect just as it comes under attack from next unbundling wave: mobile + cloud.
    • 16/Fascinating twist: Under new leadership, Microsoft 2014 now committed to unbundling -- full app + cloud support for iOS, Android, Linux!
    • 17/Microsoft taking new unbundling strategy offensively vs new titans who are bundling as fast as possible! Apple, Google, Amazon, Oracle.
    • 18/The point? I don't know much about what our industry will look like in 50 years, but I'm quite confident these same dynamics will apply.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/The flip side of unbundling: Later on, the unbundlers tend to try to rebundle in the image of whatever they unbundled.
    • 2/So Yahoo adds an ISP (https://t.co/JrlrVoY9Vo), and Google adds email/IM/sports-scores/stock-quotes.
    • 3/Twitter changes its user profile page to look more like Facebook :-).
    • 4/Sun unbundled DEC with commodity components, then re-bundled into a proprietary computing stack just like DEC w/Solaris, Sparc, etc.
    • 5/Microsoft likewise unbundled DEC minicomputers w/PC OS + tools, then rebundled into DEC-like integrated stack now including hardware (!).
    • 6/Paraphrasing Harvey Dent: "You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the company you first competed with."
    • 7/And then sometimes the rebundlers realize what they're doing and try to reverse course. E.g. Microsoft building apps for iOS & Android.
    • 8/And thus the cycle of life repeats with yet more unbundling :-).

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A story of unbundling in the tech industry: 20 years of consumer Internet evolution -- http://t.co/qUCWjc4wkF
    • 2/One upon a time there was AOL, which was a completely integrated Internet access/information/communication service.
    • 3/Then Yahoo came along and unbundled the information/communication parts like email/IM/sports-scores/stock-quotes from the access service.
    • 4/One of the things you could do on Yahoo was search, then Google came along and unbundled that.
    • 5/You can search for anything on Google, including people; Facebook came along with a much better way to just search for people.
    • 6/Three things you can do on Facebook are messaging, photo sharing, and status updates; therefore Whatsapp, Instagram, and Twitter.
    • 7/And yes, Yo unbundles the creation & existence of a message from the contents of a message, unbundling Whatsapp and Twitter :-).
    • 8/Ev Williams (@ev) is the modern genius of this concept--playing out in our industry continuously since the 1950's. http://t.co/p6DzO6tGbL
    • 9/The part people often miss is that you can get extremely powerful second/third order effects at each step with his pattern.
    • 10/The entrepreneurs generally have a pretty good sense of this when they're doing it, but it doesn't become clear to others until later.
    • 11/This is a pattern what we love to fund: unbundle X from Y, but then use the liberation of X as leverage to do amazing new things with X.
    • 12/And the howls of press and analyst outrage at the apparent stupidity of each unbundling are very helpful for keeping valuations down :-).

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @paulbaumgart Also in that world there's no need for fractional private ownership. Hedge funds and pension funds can own everything...
    • @paulbaumgart ...relieving individuals of all carrying costs. Consumer lifestyle all opex no capex.
    • @paulbaumgart With prospect for amazing scale economics on maintenance and physical resource allocation.
    • Smart Cities should be social cities, where technology enables social interaction, not filters it. Blog here http://t.co/IJY4QY1SBH — (RT @kieronkirkland)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/1950's + 1960's + 1970's + 1980's + early 1990's view of computer technology = "Nerds!"
    • 2/Late 1990's view of computer technology = "Everyone will get rich!"
    • 3/2001's view of computer technology = "The nerds screwed us!"
    • 4/2003's view of computer technology = "We knew those nerds were wrong all along!"
    • 5/2009's view of computer technology = "Those nerds are completely out of ideas!"
    • 6/2013's view of computer technology = "Those nerds and all their crazy ideas are going to destroy all the jobs!"
    • 7/And now = "Those nerds are completely out of ideas again, and now they're having sex too!" http://t.co/Du7pMU6seU http://t.co/GF5L2qXwj3
    • 8/Stay tuned for more updates from our favorite show, "As The Nerds Turn" :-).

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Equally big news of the day: our co @Quirky spinning out "Internet of things" platform Wink as standalone company! http://t.co/knfAGTKgPi
    • 2/@Quirky with its partners including GE and Home Depot is reinventing American manufacturing of consumer products. http://t.co/knfAGTKgPi
    • 3/Now Wink will provide a standard software layer across all of Quirky's products plus many others including GE, Honeywell, and Philips.
    • 4/Quirky partner Home Depot "now sells 600 smart-home products, six times as many as it did two years ago." The revolution is happening now.
    • 5/Important to note this isn't just about toys for rich people; it's about energy conservation, water conservation, security, and safety.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Today we're thrilled to be able to talk about newest investment--Tanium. We're investing $90M; first VC investment since co founded 2007.
    • 2/Collectively partners at @a16z have maybe 200 years experience in systems management; Tanium is a breakthrough like we've never seen.
    • 3/Tanium --> people responsible for large networks of computers & software, what Google --> people on the Internet. Don't say that lightly.
    • 4/Company's operating under radar, but its customers could not be more enthusiastic. Product must be seen to be believed. It's amazing.
    • 5/Tanium is real-time query *and* control--100s of Ks of computers & virtual machines--with natural language queries. http://t.co/q4uYZl4qaX
    • 6/We are thrilled to be working with genius founders David & Orion Hindawi and their colleagues. Masters of the art & science of computing.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/We are very proud of portfolio company @udacity for going straight after opening up higher ed to far more people: http://t.co/QiPJoy5JTx
    • 2/"$200 a month, teach anyone basic programming skills for entry-level position at AT&T as a data analyst, iOS applications designer, etc."
    • 3/"Harnessing the web to provide effective schooling to the many young Americans for whom college has become a distant, unaffordable dream."
    • 4/"'We are trying to widen the pipeline,' said AT&T's Charlene Lake. 'This is designed by business for specific skills needed in business.'"
    • 5/"Education still offers children from disadvantaged families their best chance at climbing the ladder of success."
    • 6/"One reason for enormous payoff from college degree (2x payoff vs 1979) is that too few young Americans ever earn one."
    • 7/"Peter Lubbers, who runs MOOC developer training for Google says, 'We want all the techniques we know about to get out to the market.'"
    • 8/"The 'NanoDegree' offers a set of skills that can be clearly applied to a job--a chunk of knowledge & immediate motivation to acquire it."
    • 9/"Could offer a plausible path to young men/women who may not have time, money or skill to make it through 4-year or even 2-year degree."
    • 10/"US students in bottom quarter of income distribution: college graduation rates only 9%, from 5% 20 years ago." Not *nearly* high enough.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter

    • 1/We are very proud of portfolio company @udacity for going straight after opening up higher ed to far more people: http://t.co/QiPJoy5JTx
    • 2/"$200 a month, teach anyone basic programming skills for entry-level position at AT&T as a data analyst, iOS applications designer, etc."
    • 3/"Harnessing the web to provide effective schooling to the many young Americans for whom college has become a distant, unaffordable dream."
    • 4/"'We are trying to widen the pipeline,' said AT&T's Charlene Lake. 'This is designed by business for specific skills needed in business.'"
    • 5/"Education still offers children from disadvantaged families their best chance at climbing the ladder of success."
    • 6/"One reason for enormous payoff from college degree (2x payoff vs 1979) is that too few young Americans ever earn one."
    • 7/"Peter Lubbers, who runs MOOC developer training for Google says, 'We want all the techniques we know about to get out to the market.'"
    • 8/"The 'NanoDegree' offers a set of skills that can be clearly applied to a job--a chunk of knowledge & immediate motivation to acquire it."

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin Which is one reason so many ideas developed in the megacorp research arms never made it into products, then and now.
    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin And they usually had an odd relationship with the mothership, which wanted as little change as possible to preserve monopoly.
    • @samgustin Which is one reason so many ideas developed in the megacorp research arms never made it into products, then and now.
    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin ...and hyper-profitable monopolies are not normally the kind of thing that people get nostalgic about.
    • @samgustin And they usually had an odd relationship with the mothership, which wanted as little change as possible to preserve monopoly.
    • @samgustin Which is one reason so many ideas developed in the megacorp research arms never made it into products, then and now.
    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin However, it's surprising people get nostalgic about them, in that they only existed within hyper-profitable monopolies.
    • @samgustin ...and hyper-profitable monopolies are not normally the kind of thing that people get nostalgic about.
    • @samgustin And they usually had an odd relationship with the mothership, which wanted as little change as possible to preserve monopoly.
    • @samgustin Which is one reason so many ideas developed in the megacorp research arms never made it into products, then and now.
    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin I'm all in favor of more research, so only good things to say about them historically and now.
    • @samgustin However, it's surprising people get nostalgic about them, in that they only existed within hyper-profitable monopolies.
    • @samgustin ...and hyper-profitable monopolies are not normally the kind of thing that people get nostalgic about.
    • @samgustin And they usually had an odd relationship with the mothership, which wanted as little change as possible to preserve monopoly.
    • @samgustin Which is one reason so many ideas developed in the megacorp research arms never made it into products, then and now.
    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/The thing I find most interesting about Marx is how much he hated the poor and dispossessed: http://t.co/A3Y9U4DsEB
    • 2/Lumpenproletariat: "Layer of working class lost to useful production, of no use to the struggle, an impediment to the classless society."
    • 3/"Translated as slum workers or the mob...class of outcast, degenerated and submerged elements within population of industrial centers."
    • 4/"Beggars, prostitutes, gangsters, racketeers, swindlers, petty criminals, tramps, chronic unemployed or unemployables..."
    • 5/"Declassed, degraded or degenerated elements...innumerable young people also, who cannot find an opportunity to [become] producers."

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A personal meditation on how we learn, and how how we learn is changing radically for the better due to new technology...
    • 2/1989: I go to college & want to learn about how "real" computers work--VMS & Unix--foundation of all today's phones/tablets/PCs/servers.
    • 3/Only way: Get a job at a computer lab that owned such a computer; get access to the literal wall of paper manuals-- http://t.co/sGgCIV3jMn
    • 4/Read those cover to cover; then what? Scientific/technical journals. Only with access to research university library. Until...
    • 5/1990: Co-op job at IBM; discovered mainframe (!) search engine of science/tech journals; in 3 days, get printed copies via office mail!
    • 6/Posed major dilemma: How many papers could the intern request before Big Blue would fire his ***? Tested it into the hundreds.
    • 7/All other relevant info was on the Internet--IETF RFC's, free software code--but who had access to the Internet in 1990? Not many.
    • 8/25 years later: Every smartphone is equiv of million-$ Unix supercomputer from that time, plus *all* that info is freely available online.
    • 9/Science/tech journals still not completely free, but even those walls falling fast now due to Google Scholar/PDF searches/policy reform.
    • 10/Re journals: Aaron Swartz doc is out; powerful memory of freedom of information hero & warrior for progress. http://t.co/Vh9G9FuBeZ
    • 11/Why does this matter? Info is foundation of progress; info about computers is basis of key tool for progress as software eats world.
    • 12/Means of production being put in hands of the masses for first time in human history. I'm broken record on this, but: profound change.
    • @pmarca one example of this is how mobile devices lead to new p2p networks which lead to new employment channels in a new labor market. — (RT @semil)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/I am super-proud of my friends at Google and their new push to help get more girls into coding: "The things you love are #MadewithCode"!
    • 2/From @SusanWojcicki: "Fewer than one percent of high school girls express interest in majoring in computer science....hits home for me."
    • 3/"Along with several partners, Google is launching Made with Code, an initiative to inspire girls to code." http://t.co/ewOIysOzW0
    • 4/Including "commitment of $50 million to support programs that can help get more females into computer science." !! http://t.co/ewOIysOzW0
    • 5/"Nowadays, coding isn’t just a skill useful for working at a tech company; engineering isn’t just for engineers..."
    • 6/"No matter what a girl dreams of doing, learning how to code will help her get there. Their future — our future — is made with code."
    • @pmarca love this @FastCompany story of bronx hs of science teen who learned she loves to code & started XX Hackers! http://t.co/ksTMeNJuoY — (RT @amy_pfister)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/One of the special things about our industry is how intellectually generous many of the leading participants are (no, I don't mean me :-).
    • 2/When I arrived in Silicon Valley in Jan 1994, I sought out all of the written material I could on startups & venture capital.
    • 3/I found exactly two books. An excellent but dry financial analysis of startup returns, and an excellent but dated book by Gordon Bell.
    • 4/So then I looked for magazines, and found exactly one: Red Herring. Which for several years was the best magazine about startups.
    • 5/But, in 1994, Red Herring was ~8 (?) memographed pages, cost $12 (?), published every 2 months (?), & available at only a few newsstands.
    • 6/That was it. I knew there was more material at Stanford & Harvard business schools but I couldn't get to it. There was nothing else.
    • 7/Today, 20 years later, the difference is *profound*. Many of the leading theorists & practitioners share *huge* amounts of info for free.
    • 8/That's a big difference in SV, but what I hear every day from people all over the world=what a big difference it's making everywhere else.
    • 9/A 14-year-old kid in Indonesia w/smartphone has access to 10,000x more info on tech & startups today than I did in Palo Alto 20 years ago.
    • 10/And the cycle is closing: there is startlingly profound new thinking happening all over the world & coming right back to Silicon Valley.
    • 11/In our industry, it's hard to underestimate the consequences of a positive feedback loop -- and this is a positive feedback loop.
    • 12/Assumption *must* be: Tech entrepreneurship all over the world is going to expand a thousand fold in the next 20 years. How could it not?
    • .@pmarca In fact, the 95 Theses that Martin Luther nailed to the door in Wittenberg Germany was basically the first #tweetstorm :) — (RT @KyleTibbitts)

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Lots of Mirth over "Yo" today (http://t.co/vYHSgl9OOh) but actually there's a fascinating aspect lots of people are missing...
    • 2/Yo is an instance of "one-bit communication" -- a message with no content other than the fact that it exists. Yes or no. Yo or no yo.
    • 3/Other instances of one-bit communication: Police siren, flashing stop light, "Open" sign, light turned on, taxicab roof indicator lit.
    • 4/But the most interesting instance of one-bit communication is the global "missed call" phenomenon: http://t.co/EVVISRA40Q
    • 5/Missed call on mobile phone is used as one-bit comm: "Used in South Asia/Philippines/Africa to communicate pre-agreed messages for free."
    • 6/Aided by fact that missed calls cost nothing to send/receive. "In Bangladesh, missed calls are 70% of mobile traffic at any given time."
    • 7/So the hilarity around Yo includes two problematic biases: Bias that one-bit comm isn't useful, and bias that all markets are like the US.
    • 8/I'm not saying Yo will be the next $100B social media powerhouse. But instant dismissal makes little sense; let's learn & keep minds open.
    • 9/Excellent followup reading: Jeremy Wagstaff on missed calls, http://t.co/ZSZlJZiGIr @loosewire

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @techmilind Of course the funniest outcome here will be if it turns out to be the next $10B social media property.
    • 1/Lots of Mirth over "Yo" today (http://t.co/vYHSgl9OOh) but actually there's a fascinating aspect lots of people are missing...
    • 2/Yo is an instance of "one-bit communication" -- a message with no content other than the fact that it exists. Yes or no. Yo or no yo.
    • 3/Other instances of one-bit communication: Police siren, flashing stop light, "Open" sign, light turned on, taxicab roof indicator lit.
    • 4/But the most interesting instance of one-bit communication is the global "missed call" phenomenon: http://t.co/EVVISRA40Q
    • 5/Missed call on mobile phone is used as one-bit comm: "Used in South Asia/Philippines/Africa to communicate pre-agreed messages for free."
    • 6/Aided by fact that missed calls cost nothing to send/receive. "In Bangladesh, missed calls are 70% of mobile traffic at any given time."
    • 7/So the hilarity around Yo includes two problematic biases: Bias that one-bit comm isn't useful, and bias that all markets are like the US.
    • 8/I'm not saying Yo will be the next $100B social media powerhouse. But instant dismissal makes little sense; let's learn & keep minds open.
    • 9/Excellent followup reading: Jeremy Wagstaff on missed calls, http://t.co/ZSZlJZiGIr @loosewire

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • @techmilind I think I'd be more worried if they investors were Sequoia, Accel, Greylock, Benchmark, and Founders Fund :-).
    • @techmilind Of course the funniest outcome here will be if it turns out to be the next $10B social media property.
    • 1/Lots of Mirth over "Yo" today (http://t.co/vYHSgl9OOh) but actually there's a fascinating aspect lots of people are missing...
    • 2/Yo is an instance of "one-bit communication" -- a message with no content other than the fact that it exists. Yes or no. Yo or no yo.
    • 3/Other instances of one-bit communication: Police siren, flashing stop light, "Open" sign, light turned on, taxicab roof indicator lit.
    • 4/But the most interesting instance of one-bit communication is the global "missed call" phenomenon: http://t.co/EVVISRA40Q
    • 5/Missed call on mobile phone is used as one-bit comm: "Used in South Asia/Philippines/Africa to communicate pre-agreed messages for free."
    • 6/Aided by fact that missed calls cost nothing to send/receive. "In Bangladesh, missed calls are 70% of mobile traffic at any given time."
    • 7/So the hilarity around Yo includes two problematic biases: Bias that one-bit comm isn't useful, and bias that all markets are like the US.
    • 8/I'm not saying Yo will be the next $100B social media powerhouse. But instant dismissal makes little sense; let's learn & keep minds open.
    • 9/Excellent followup reading: Jeremy Wagstaff on missed calls, http://t.co/ZSZlJZiGIr @loosewire

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Proposed: Unless you're with your kids, what's on screen in your hand = likely more interesting & important than what's around you.
    • 2/Sounds extreme, yet how could it not be true most of the time? Screen in your hand contains the entire world vs immediate locality.
    • 3/This is personal for me: I grew up in very small rural town; Kids in rural towns today grow up way more connected to the world than I did.
    • 4/People around you not interested in same things? No problem, screen in your hand connects you to like-minded people everywhere.
    • 5/People around you can't teach you the things you want to know? No problem, screen in your hand gives you all the information you want.
    • 6/The place where you live doesn't have economic opportunity for you? Screen in your hand gives you access to global opportunities, markets.
    • 7/Bastiat's "seed and unseen": What we see are people staring at their phones. What we don't see are their interactions with the world.
    • 8/And then it comes back around: Our online virtual world enhances and improves our local physical world & our friends and family in it.
    • 9/Recommend reading David Gerlenter's "Mirror Worlds", on how our virtual & physical worlds improve one another: http://t.co/MXph8TMhvo

    1 year ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Speaking of disruption: Tech people like me can sometimes come across as presumptuous/arrogant re disruption of other peoples' industries.
    • 1a/It is possible this is an understatement. I am sure that some of my Twitter friends will expand on this for me :-).
    • 2/From this side of the aisle, though, it's less smugness, more the result of hard experience and learning from our own lives and careers.
    • 3/In tech, our *own* businesses are disrupted by technology change and new competitive entrants at whiplash-inducing rates.
    • 4/It's shocking how quickly you can go from the hot disruptive upstart to the stodgy disrupted incumbent in tech--frequently within 5 years.
    • 5/I've probably been on the receiving end of disruption 30 times in the last 20 years--almost as many times as I've been on the giving end.
    • 6/Now, on the one hand, you might say, "How can people live like that?" ... what's wrong with a little stability?
    • 7/But, what we see is: Frequent disruption is the handmaiden of rapid progress--and it's a blast to create and work amid rapid progress.
    • 8/It's not just rapid progress of tech. It's also rapid grown of companies, and even better, rapid development of *people* & their talents.
    • 9/It's hard to stay in tech for any period of time and not get good at rapid adaptation, skill acquisition... and new product creation.
    • 10/As software eats the world: Same disruption dynamics always present in tech now applying to many more industries, fields, professions.
    • 11/Rather than superiority/contempt, what a lot of us feel is deep sympathy/understanding-- even if that's not always how it comes across!
    • 12/And now we all have the opportunity to learn together--to make many parts of industry/life more innovative/dynamic, better for everyone.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter

    • 1/Fascinating question around Christensen's theory of disruption: "OK, smart guy, why haven't Apple iPhone/iPad been disrupted by Android?"
    • 2/I count five possible answers; there may be more...
    • 3/A. Theory of disruption is hucksterish management consultant fraud. (This one I do not agree with.)
    • 4/B. Right now Apple *is* the disruptor--iPhones/iPads vs Windows PCs. Many surprised by rapid rise of direct substitution, including me.
    • 5/C. Apple *is* getting disrupted right now: Android phones outselling iPhones somewhere between 5:1 and 10:1 worldwide right now.
    • 6/D: Related to C, Apple isn't getting disrupted *yet*, but will be soon. This is what many in Silicon Valley believe, but Apple does not.
    • 7/E: The most interesting one: Current theory of disruption is incomplete; does not have a broad enough concept of end-user quality.
    • 8/In this line of argument, disruption theory was born in Microsoft/Intel era, when everyone expected computers to have, um, certain issues.
    • 9/Apple brilliantly redefined conception what was possible from end-user quality and integration standpoint, against prevailing assumptions.
    • 10/We have attempted to generalize *this* concept into "full stack" thinking, which many of today's best startups are also pursuing.
    • 11/It's possible disruption theory needs to be evolved to accommodate these newer patterns and learnings...
    • 12/But it's also possible all such "full stack" patterns are just integrated approaches that themselves will be disrupted in the future.
    • 13/Time will tell. In Silicon Valley, these topics are central and being debated both in actions and words by ultra-smart people every day.
    • 14/References: http://t.co/HJI1nL97C9 http://t.co/Gxz600QDIh + Discussions w/@cdixon @stevesi @balajis @bhorowitz & others.

    1 year ago ago via Twitter

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