Marc Andreessen — @pmarca


  • 1

    • @Noahpinion I guess I don't think it's something that should be prevented or managed. Each company should do what's best for itself.
    • @Noahpinion Plus it's really hard to predict how true competition will unfold, even when people are determined to go after each other.
    • @Noahpinion I have seen many cases of situations that people thought would be competitive that actually never were...
    • @Noahpinion ...and I have seen an equally large # of cases where companies that looked completely different ended up competing directly.
    • @Noahpinion I have not seen either VCs or founders who can really predict how competitive dynamics will actually unfold.
    • @Noahpinion As a result, my own definition of competition has become quite specific: targeting the same $ from same customer at same time.

    6 days ago ago via Twitter

  • 2

    • @Noahpinion I guess I don't think it's something that should be prevented or managed. Each company should do what's best for itself.
    • @Noahpinion Plus it's really hard to predict how true competition will unfold, even when people are determined to go after each other.
    • @Noahpinion I have seen many cases of situations that people thought would be competitive that actually never were...
    • @Noahpinion ...and I have seen an equally large # of cases where companies that looked completely different ended up competing directly.
    • @Noahpinion I have not seen either VCs or founders who can really predict how competitive dynamics will actually unfold.
    • @Noahpinion As a result, my own definition of competition has become quite specific: targeting the same $ from same customer at same time.
    • @Noahpinion When you define competition like that, it's actually quite rare, particularly in newer categories.

    6 days ago ago via Twitter

  • 3

    • 1/A common trope in discussions about startups & venture capital is a potential misalignment of incentives between startup team & investors.
    • 2/I don't think this perceived misalignment actually exists in most, maybe all cases -- and I want to explain why.
    • 3/The argument goes, "When you take VC, you have to shoot for the moon; smaller outcomes that may be great for the team are precluded."
    • 4/First, obvious but important: No startup is forced to take venture capital. In fact, vast majority of successful new businesses do not.
    • 5/The main reason TO TAKE venture capital is in pursuit of a bigger outcome than the startup team believes it could achieve on its own.
    • 6/Hence, taking venture capital ALIGNS interest in a big outcome between the venture investors and the team.
    • 7/Most non-VC investors are more risk averse than VCs; a startup shooting for big outcome that raises money from non-VCs ends up MISALIGNED.
    • 8/The argument cont'd: "VCs can tolerate higher risk of failure due to portfolio of bets, whereas founders and employees have only one bet."
    • 9/In the modern era, that's also untrue. Founders and employees generally make multiple bets as well, in two dimensions:
    • 10/Founders and employees often have running room to try multiple products within a single startup; hence popularity of the term "pivot".
    • 11/And, founders and employees often start or join multiple startups throughout their multi-decade careers = a personal portfolio of bets.
    • 12/In fact, some of today's most successful startups are founded by entrepreneurs whose previous ventures didn't work nearly as well.
    • 13/In short: VC is very much not for every company. But for companies that want to do something big, VC = the most aligned capital there is.

    6 days ago ago via Twitter

  • 4

    • History shows top VCs suffer ~50% portfolio failure rate as a direct consequence of taking enough risk to get ~50% portfolio success rate.
    • Top VCs win big with 50% success rate & 50% failure rate, because the magnitude of the successes dominates; failures irrelevant in model.
    • "Some startups fail" has no predictive value at all for VC portfolio outcomes -- will always be true, even for best VC funds of all time.
    • "Some startups fail" has no predictive value at all for VC portfolio outcomes -- will always be true, even for best VC funds of all time.

    6 days ago ago via Twitter

  • 5

    • @BitCoinSusan The most successful VCs of all time routinely see a full 1/2 of their companies fail or disappoint.
    • @BitCoinSusan History says you don't get the big winners without also a certain % of losers.
    • @BitCoinSusan If you don't get the losers, you aren't taking enough risk and you won't get the winners either.
    • @BitCoinSusan You also tend to see the same distribution within the set of companies that a serial entrepreneur will found over time.

    6 days ago ago via Twitter

  • 6

    • @DanielleMorrill @nabeel LP fees, GP pockets, firm balance sheet if one exists, insurance... Can vary by situation.
    • @DanielleMorrill @nabeel LP fees, GP pockets, firm balance sheet if one exists, insurance... Can vary by situation.
    • @DanielleMorrill @nabeel Consider also: if LP fees, from which fund or funds? If GP pockets, which GPs and what split?
    • @gnoll110 @bengoldhaber @pmarca My book The Future & Its Enemies (1998) has lots of footnotes. http://t.co/jiJPdFFqBK — (RT @vpostrel)

    6 days ago ago via Twitter

  • 7

    • @loic I believe we can program them to kill. I don't believe they will decide to kill on their own.
    • @loic As ever, the thing to worry about is murderous humans, not murderous AI.
    • @loic As ever, the thing to worry about is murderous humans, not murderous AI.
    • Discuss: Ebola is the new Bono.

    6 days ago ago via Twitter

  • 8

    • @nntaleb @EAWharton Yes! Good ideas that look like good ideas have already been tried; bad ideas that look like bad ideas don't work.
    • @nntaleb @EAWharton ...As well, of course, bad ideas that look like good ideas also don't work but get tried over and over again!
    • @nntaleb @EAWharton One might call this the venture capital theory of "high hanging fruit" :-).
    • @amol @pmarca Bottleneck at A Round: startups not satisfying the necessary metrics (not insufficient VCs or dry powder held by VCs). — (RT @trengriffin)

    1 week ago ago via Twitter

  • 9

    • 1/Sharing economy services like AirBnB, Lyft, Uber, et al reduce income inequality, as follows:
    • 2/Once upon a time, only rich people who could afford to build hotels could offer rooms for guests to rent.
    • 3/Thanks to AirBnB, now anyone with a home or apartment can offer a room for rent. Hence, income inequality reduced.
    • 4/Once upon a time, only rich people who could afford to buy a taxi fleet or medallion could offer car rides to other passengers.
    • 5/Thanks to Lyft and Uber, now anyone with a car can offer rides to other passengers. Hence, income inequality reduced.
    • 6/The same dynamic of reduced income inequality will play out in each new sharing category. Delivery, field service, personal care, etc.
    • 7/This expansion of economic oppy and reduction of inequality is direct result of widespread deployment of disruptive tech: the smartphone.
    • 8/As history has repeatedly shown, putting means of production - technology - in the hands of the masses increases their oppy and income.
    • 9/And since we are at the very beginning of understanding the full range of real world applications of the new wave of technology...
    • 10/We are also at the very start of the creation of thousands of new opportunities for economic growth and progress for huge #s of people.

    1 week ago ago via Twitter


    • @sama We know how to make maddeningly literal software. We have no idea how to make the AI you're worried about.
    • @sama We know how to make maddeningly literal software. We have no idea how to make the AI you're worried about.
    • @sama I'm surprised you can tweet these things via the iPhone "autocorrecting" keyboard and not get the irony :-).
    • @sama Go get a PhD in the field and then let me know how close, or far away, you think we are.

    2 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • @paulvigna The best part is that every part is on a dramatic performance curve from here. Will be 10x as mind-blowing in 5 years.
    • @paulvigna The best part is that every part is on a dramatic performance curve from here. Will be 10x as mind-blowing in 5 years.
    • @paulvigna And 100x as mind-blowing in 10 years.
    • Someone posted a drone video to Youtube, and the FAA is ON IT! http://t.co/wI2vSAdtzH

    2 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/In financial markets, one observes two different types of relationship between prices and information.
    • 2/Type D for Deductive: Consider the available information and then calculate a price. The classical model of how to value things.
    • 3/Type I for Inductive: Consider the price, assume it contains information content, and derive the information from the price.
    • 4/In theory financial markets operate mainly with Type D, but I think in practice markets operate mainly with Type I.
    • 5/In the real world, one observes investors and analysts assiduously building models to explain and thereby justify prevailing prices.
    • 6/Paradox? The more one believes the market is Type D, aka the EMH, the more the market actually behaves as Type I.
    • 7/The more you believe the market is efficient, the more information you assume is embedded in market prices.
    • 8/Hence, the more information you assume is embedded in market prices, the more you operate as Type I, inductively reasoning from prices.
    • 9/Therefore, the more one believes the rest of the market is Type D, the more likely oneself is Type I.
    • 10/Hence widespread belief in market efficiency leads to inefficiency, as investors reason from prices vs from a priori information?
    • 11/Is this a robust explanation of boom/bust cycles within a market in which most investors are trying to be rigorously logical?
    • @StartupLJackson @pmarca I tried to replace myself w a robot. Check out my piece on robotics, AI & automation. http://t.co/yhWgndnl2Z — (RT @VonettaLogan)

    3 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • The smartest people I know who don't personally work on AI are terrified of the Skynet armageddon scenario. BUT... (cont'd)
    • The smartest people I know who DO personally work on AI are terrified of crazy overhype killing the field again, like in the 1980s.
    • The smartest people I know who DO personally work on AI are terrified of crazy overhype killing the field again, like in the 1980s.
    • The smartest people I know who do personally work on AI think the scaremongering coming from people who don't work on AI is lunacy.

    3 weeks ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Idle Friday musing...unlike many of my contemporaries, although I enjoyed space novels & movies as a kid, it didn't take the same with me.
    • 2/The common science fiction assumption that people would behave differently in space than they do on Earth always struck me as wrong.
    • 3/Which is why I'm delighted but not enamored with space exploration today. There is so much still yet to do here on Earth.
    • 4/I think we will get a lot more out of making life on Earth better for the 7+ billion people already here than escaping to other planets.
    • 5/Or, more pointedly, it would be shame if we just repeat the dysfunctions of human existence on Earth, in space.
    • 6/Which is not to imply that I am not thrilled by what explorers like Elon Musk are doing. I would love to visit Mars when I am 80 :-).
    • 7/Confirming my nerd status, I have happily watched every hour of Star Trek ever made, and so: Live long and prosper, Leonard Nimoy.

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @Atif_Rz @sama The renaissance of the written word sparked by the Internet has been a greatly underappreciated phenomenon.
    • @Atif_Rz @sama Ebooks, blog posts, status messages, tweets, email, web sites, fan fiction, etc. etc. -- even, God help us, comments :-).
    • @Atif_Rz @sama Ebooks, blog posts, status messages, tweets, email, web sites, fan fiction, etc. etc. -- even, God help us, comments :-).
    • My prediction is @chrislyons will make some career defining investments for @a16z and will become a partner sooner than later. All class. — (RT @shervin)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @Frances_Coppola @alexqgb Maybe the underlying truth is actually coming out.
    • @Frances_Coppola @alexqgb Maybe the underlying truth is actually coming out.
    • @Frances_Coppola @alexqgb It seems to me an awful lot of effort is being expended to avoid repeating this: http://t.co/ENHAFSPD74
    • Report: Greek finance minister Varoufakis almost got into a physical altercation with the Eurogroup chairman http://t.co/jeX0qG42Kh — (RT @businessinsider)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @Frances_Coppola Hm. There are two ways of looking at that.
    • @Frances_Coppola The other is that the member states are the ones who actually have citizens to whom they are accountable.
    • @Frances_Coppola If A gets to deal in indirect abstractions and B is accountable for direct outcomes, A will always seem nicer than B?
    • James Galbraith shares what he learned looking at Greece's fiscal crisis from the inside for a week http://t.co/oC3DY0B97c — (RT @edwardnh)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @xdamman Depends what the goal is.
    • @xdamman Depends what the goal is.
    • @xdamman If I were king, I think I'd eliminate income tax and replace it with consumption tax, for what it's worth.
    • This piece by @laurenbacon on identifying girl coders & and providing opportunities them is very good. http://t.co/gfq56Ka3jR — (RT @ElissaBeth)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • 0/Sixteen somewhat-less obvious ideas for how to expand the # of "unicorn" great tech startups over time -- per query by @trengriffin!
    • 1/More Montessori & Montessori-style, free-form, and/or project-based K-8 public & private schools.
    • 2/Entrepreneurship magnet/charter schools -- specifically designed to produce enterpreneurs, vs cogs in the industrial machine.
    • 3/Significantly expanded summer tech, science, math, entrepreneurship programs/camps for grades 5-12.
    • 4/Significantly expanded internship programs at tech companies of all sizes for both high school and college students.
    • 5/More interdisciplinary college programs -- particularly engineering + business, and liberal arts + engineering.
    • 6/Comprehensive inclusion programs for underrepresented groups for each of the preceding five ideas.
    • 7/More public research universities should pursue the Stanford/Berkeley mentality/model; also, repeal Bayh-Dole.
    • 8/Comprehensive legal and regulatory reform to open access to federally-funded research; also, pass Aaron's Law.
    • 9/Reform, or better yet eliminate, software and business method patents. Redefine patent trolling as a form of felony extortion.
    • 10/Fully portable economy-wide benefits, including health care, retirement savings, and immigration status.
    • 11/Eliminate tax credits for home ownership, and implement tax credits for renters.
    • 12/Implement tax credits for child care services for working parents.
    • 13/"Opt in" innovation zones with regulatory relief for various categories of new technology.
    • 14/More long-lockup capital at all levels of corporate capital structure.
    • 15/Eliminate tax credits for corporate debt, and implement tax credits for corporate equity.
    • 16/Zero capital gains tax for equity held for 5+ years, paid for by higher capital gains tax for equity held for <2 years.

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @davealevine @trengriffin John Reed once told me that starting a company was a noneconomic proposition...
    • @davealevine @trengriffin ...that anyone good enough to do it could make more money on a risk-adjusted basis by just being an executive...
    • @davealevine @trengriffin ...and therefore starting a company is an irrational act. I think he was right.
    • @davealevine @trengriffin If you believe that, then we are looking for extreme personalities first and foremost...
    • @davealevine @trengriffin ...and if you believe that, then attempts to get less risk-prone people to do it won't work.

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @davealevine @trengriffin People who aren't pure risk takers generally collapse under the pressure of an actual startup.
    • @davealevine @trengriffin Side note, I risk sounding too negative in these threads. I realize that...
    • @davealevine @trengriffin ...the reason is it's so important that any alternate approach overcome adverse selection & clear difficulty bar.
    • @davealevine @trengriffin Many, many attempts to solve this puzzle have crashed and burned due to unwillingness to grapple w/brutal truths.
    • @davealevine @trengriffin Including attempts in which I have been personally involved :-). YC is a very rare exception to a general rule.

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @davealevine I don't think they have. See: http://t.co/moDmYmMRBo
    • @davealevine His argument would be that they took on a lot of risk over the last 20 years that just didn't happen to materialize.
    • @davealevine But in a normally functioning market, there should be no expectation for safe interest above the level of inflation.
    • @davealevine How, whether retirement funds rely on it is another question. Bad planning on their part if so.

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @Nivo0o0 Productivity increases, human welfare expands, capital and labor available to create new businesses and jobs.
    • @Nivo0o0 Productivity increases, human welfare expands, capital and labor available to create new businesses and jobs.
    • @Nivo0o0 Or, shorter version: The mechanism that explains why we are not all subsistence farmers today.
    • thanks @pmarca, origins of Its Alright Ma and Times They Are A-Changin, among other things, from Bob-Father himself: http://t.co/RIW5YXjlKu — (RT @DylanBaskind)

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion So maybe in 10-20 years we'll be sitting here and VC + private growth will quadruple to $200B/year and I'll be in hog heaven.
    • @Noahpinion But, there will be consequences to this:
    • @Noahpinion First, two-tier market, only accredited (rich) investors and institutions will be able to invest in growth, fueling inequality.
    • @Noahpinion Second, even quadrupling VC to $200B/year is not enough to fuel job growth to compensate for what's happening on public co side.
    • @Noahpinion Third, as you point out, big projects that aren't so easy to build from scratch w/no existing assets simply won't get pursued.
    • @Noahpinion Fourth, I honestly don't know how the large pools of normal retirement capital would meet their long-run return requirements.

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion Now, a lot of this is quite good for me personally, and for VC generally. Maybe even better than people currently imagine.
    • @Noahpinion Maybe effectively all new projects have to now get funded in private markets. By private capital, aka VC.
    • @Noahpinion Further, maybe all talent that wants to pursue new projects will get channeled into private companies and out of public co's.
    • @Noahpinion Further, maybe more public $ that needs long-run growth returns will redirect into private markets, further fueling VC.
    • @Noahpinion Further, maybe so much $ will cross over that VC will get full ultimate liquidity ourselves without taking companies public.

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion A few short thoughts and we'll see how it goes...
    • @Noahpinion As with a lot of things, it starts with a couple of things that are actually true:
    • @Noahpinion 1 Some companies, as they age, chase growth inappropriately via diversification & acquisitions, causing ROIC to decline.
    • @Noahpinion 2 Related, some companies have a real agency problem where managers are incented to build empires even as ROIC suffers.
    • @Noahpinion So one can argue that early activists including some raiders were doing God's work in going after these problems at some co's.
    • @Noahpinion Those early activists generated high IRR, which has led to a snowballing of AUM into the activist asset class.
    • @Noahpinion That AUM must be deployed, hence many more companies are now being accused of having these problems even when they don't.
    • @Noahpinion The trick is that activism can still make money in the short term even when attacking companies that otherwise don't merit it.
    • @Noahpinion You can go into any big co, demand they slash spending, lever up, and return cash to shareholders, and make $ in the short term.
    • @Noahpinion If you are doing that, it is useful to assert that there are no profitable investment opportunities that co can possibly pursue.
    • @Noahpinion Management can put up models and projections for new projects, and you can laugh at them and say they're unproven...
    • @Noahpinion ...which of course they are unproven, they are new projects that haven't been pursued yet. And then they never get pursued.
    • @Noahpinion So then you get exactly what we're seeing now:
    • @Noahpinion Companies refusing to invest in new projects and opportunities, slashing spending, levering up, returning cash to investors.
    • @Noahpinion Systematically, short term profits prioritized over long run investments, new projects, and long-term company health.
    • @Noahpinion S&P 500 companies will distribute $1 trillion to shareholders in buybacks & dividends in 2015 -- all time record high.
    • @Noahpinion And so of course there's lagging job growth in the economy; you're now entirely reliant on new businesses to create jobs.
    • @Noahpinion Obviously I think VC is awesome, but VC is tiny compared to this -- <$50B/year vs $1T/year of buybacks & dividends.
    • @Noahpinion What squares the circle is the OTHER agency problem: institutional $ managers compensated annually & even quarterly...
    • @Noahpinion And so of course more money piles into government bonds and just sits there, dragging down interest rates further.
    • @Noahpinion ...when managing pools of assets with time horizons of several decades (various forms of retirement pools).
    • @Noahpinion I'd argue it's sugar rush capitalism. Feels great in the short term. Hangover is a bitch. Hope we like where it ends up.

    1 month ago ago via Twitter


    • @kcfaul Oh, sure. It took six months before I was sure it was really going to take.
    • @kcfaul Oh, sure. It took six months before I was sure it was really going to take.
    • @kcfaul Granted, that was pretty short given how long it usually takes, but still.
    • Value investors are arrogant = don't believe it's cheap for good reasons. Growth investors are arrogant = believe it will keep growing.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mtrichardson @ggonweb I would watch the proliferation of voice and motion UIs as well as wearable devices very carefully!
    • @mtrichardson @ggonweb Imagine, walk up to any screen, it recognizes you, up comes all your stuff, you can talk to it/wave at it & it works.
    • @mtrichardson @ggonweb Imagine, walk up to any screen, it recognizes you, up comes all your stuff, you can talk to it/wave at it & it works.
    • @mtrichardson @ggonweb Or, a tiny earpiece so you can talk and listen to a cloud-based service, plus heads-up display in glasses/contacts.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @hiltzikm @CFCamerer The view is that farm subsidies are so clearly in the national interest that nobody could possibly oppose them.
    • @hiltzikm @CFCamerer The view is that farm subsidies are so clearly in the national interest that nobody could possibly oppose them.
    • @hiltzikm @CFCamerer And yes, this view is held by the staunchest of the midwestern hard right.
    • No, this isn't spooky at all, why do you ask? http://t.co/AKKxc8tLko

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @perpetuelle I think the most informative thing is that digital watches almost killed mechanical watches, but then mech came roaring back.
    • @perpetuelle I don't think anyone buys a Patek or a Sub or a Tag because it tells the time better than a Casio watch or a smartphone.
    • @perpetuelle And so I'm not convinced smartwatches are competition to mechanical watches really at all. Very different reasons to buy/wear.
    • @perpetuelle And I for one plan to wear a "real" watch on my left wrist and an Apple watch on my right wrist :-).

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Chris_Ciaccia You wrote she said "3 yrs or more" at that time :-).
    • @Chris_Ciaccia You wrote she said "3 yrs or more" at that time :-).
    • @Chris_Ciaccia She's right about the Apple comparison in that it was over 4 years from Steve's return to the first iPod.
    • @Chris_Ciaccia Big efforts take time!

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @brianritchie @fdestin We think about it in terms of the idea maze: http://t.co/FNO8wkl8wd
    • @brianritchie @fdestin Insights that are the result of someone traversing their own idea maze, we try to not repeat in other contexts.
    • @brianritchie @fdestin But yes, easily obtainable external data points generally don't count as part of this.
    • In startups: Ideas are cheap. But successful traversals of idea mazes are highly valuable. http://t.co/FNO8wkl8wd

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @sriramk The CEO plus a few key people, open to new ideas and aggressive at pursuing them.
    • @sriramk The CEO plus a few key people, open to new ideas and aggressive at pursuing them.
    • @sriramk Dr Burda came to California right after we started Netscape and leaned way in. The American media CEOs thought we were silly.
    • @pmarca talking about many issues and nailing it Lunch with the FT: Marc Andreessen - http://t.co/EuhPhu8vre http://t.co/UaN9RKLB5Q via @FT — (RT @sammantic)

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion @rodrikdani Side node, funding that's actually lacking is for $1B+ new capital intensive projects. Think Elon Musk, Peter Thiel.
    • @Noahpinion @rodrikdani Of course, most of those projects would be in regulated/entrenched industries: HC, edu, transport, energy.
    • @Noahpinion @rodrikdani Of course, most of those projects would be in regulated/entrenched industries: HC, edu, transport, energy.
    • The last time US consumer were this confident Destiny's Child were still a band. http://t.co/KvhGyzJhjW http://t.co/ZcVbYiQtit — (RT @RobinWigg)

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ScottMAustin Correct. The growth part of what we do is substituting for what would have been public offerings in the past.
    • @ScottMAustin Correct. The growth part of what we do is substituting for what would have been public offerings in the past.
    • @ScottMAustin The only reason to lump them together in analysis, ignoring the changed public landscape, is to feed the bubble narrative.
    • @ScottMAustin If you do true apples to apples VC funding comparison over time, it's not actually up very much at all.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @NickatFP Sure, but price stability not needed to use Bitcoin to send/receive money -- e.g. convert $ to BTC, send, convert BTC to Euros.
    • @NickatFP And the Bitcoin platform itself has been utterly stable, didn't skip a beat when MtGox or Bitstamp got hacked.
    • @NickatFP And the Bitcoin platform itself has been utterly stable, didn't skip a beat when MtGox or Bitstamp got hacked.
    • If you missed it, here's my full response to @pmarca’s thoughtful tweetstorm on secular stagnation: http://t.co/XE8yTCVhtQ — (RT @LHSummers)

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @NickatFP Exactly :-).
    • @NickatFP No prior trust relationship or intermediate third party required.
    • @NickatFP Independent of source or destination nation.
    • @NickatFP This is why I don't understand skepticism about Bitcoin. It's like magic.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @seouldan @JaffrayW @Jesse_Livermore But true that my career has been during falling rates regime.
    • @seouldan @JaffrayW @Jesse_Livermore But true that my career has been during falling rates regime.
    • @seouldan @JaffrayW @Jesse_Livermore But increasingly so has everyone else's...
    • @pmarca @trengriffin @Jesse_Livermore @BamaTrader the HIPPO (highest paid person opinion) syndrome :) — (RT @samuelgil)

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Free market competition. Miners compete to process tx. Miner only needs to recoup marginal cost of mining to justify.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Also note mining highly parallel. ASICs already orders of magnitude more efficient than CPU or GPU. And improving.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Current mining dynamics changing fast. Non-ASIC miners being pushed out, can't mine economically anymore.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Ie transaction processing costs are dropping like a rock. In transition now, great longer term.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @EmanuelDerman @delong The system was designed for speculation to be the bootstrapping mechanism to get the mining network running.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Which was very clever, since it's a completely distributed system -- there's no central engine pushing it forward.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong Which was very clever, since it's a completely distributed system -- there's no central engine pushing it forward.
    • @EmanuelDerman @delong So speculation-driven volatility in early years mean system working as designed. This is a geniunely new approach.

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BrendanNyhan I can't wait to see how this one shakes out.
    • @BrendanNyhan I can't wait to see how this one shakes out.
    • @BrendanNyhan Either way it goes, it's an absolutely amazing story.
    • This is remarkable: Informal New York City police strike continues -- http://t.co/DW3MQcs8Cc http://t.co/lSgFNc07Wl

    2 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 11/Bitcoin was specifically designed to use speculation early on to overcome the normal chicken/egg boostrapping problem for new networks.
    • 12/Attacking Bitcoin for having speculative levels of volatility is missing the point of how the system was designed for this point in time.
    • 13/Now, yes, in the long run, BTC does need to stabilize -- which I think will happen with a combo of scale + use of derivatives (hedging).
    • 14/In the short run, Bitcoin is still highly useful as a transaction and trust network in many uses cases even with high volatility.
    • 15/For example, payment applications of BItcoin don't require users/merchants to hold BTC for any period of time. All benefits still gained.
    • 16/Further, all other uses cases of Bitcoin and the blockchain are unhampered by volatility of BTC. The system continues working just fine.
    • 17/Net net, the network boostrapping process is happening pretty much exactly as Satoshi designed and anticipated. It's a thing of beauty.
    • 18/The third critique I call the "innocent" one -- "Are there enough sufficiently compelling uses cases for Bitcoin to succeed at scale?"
    • 19/I previously identified many uses cases here http://t.co/UHQL5HQQ2O ranging from ecommerce to remittance to micropayments to anti-spam.
    • 20/Two particular areas of focus today are A use outside the US where currencies + banks are often awful, and B machine-to-machine payments.
    • 21/At our venture firm, we continue to see an escalating stream of fascinating new Bitcoin uses cases and applications from entrepeneurs.
    • 22/In addition, there are entirely new vistas of technological creativity opening up, such as sidechains http://t.co/KLLKVtr6dE.
    • 23/The price of BTC has very little to do with the level of creativity of thinking that's going into new Bitcoin apps, or their usefulness.
    • 24/By loose analogy, the price of domain names didn't determine the usefulness of the Internet. This is a broad-based technology phenomenon.
    • 26/Final thought: The entire Bitcoin system is 6 years old. TCP/IP was 6 years old in 1981. Big things take time. Onward!
    • 25/What to watch in 2015: New apps, new use cases, international adoption, consumer education, technological innovation & spinoff ideas!

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Some thoughts on the state of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and distributed transaction and trust networks at start of 2015!
    • 2/A year ago I articulated my views on Bitcoin in the New York Times, and I wouldn't change a word today: http://t.co/2yuRx724ZJ
    • 3/Over the last several months of 2014, there were three Bitcoin counter-narratives that I will describe and analyze:
    • 4/First, what I call the "dumb" critique: "Bitcoin BTC currency price dropped to below $300, proving Bitcoin is a stupid idea."
    • 5/Same class of critics slamming BTC for price falling in 2014 were slamming BTC for price rising in 2013. Only consistency is the slamming.
    • 6/Further, the critique that BTC is bad because it was down in 2014 changes completely if one uses a 2-year window instead of 1-year window.
    • 7/BTC was below $14 in Jan 2013. If 1-year performance has been disappointing, 2-year performance has been spectacular.
    • 8/As a general rule, arguments that rely on cherry-picking specific date windows are not very good arguments.
    • 9/The second critique I call "smarter": "BTC is too volatile -- it goes up and down too much and so cannot be used as a store of value."
    • 10/This is largely correct at the moment, and yet misses most of the point of Bitcoin as a distributed transaction and trust network.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @pbreit @mdudas @jyarow @cdixon Depends how you want to use it. To send/receive BTC currency, need to own for 10 min or less.
    • @pbreit @mdudas @jyarow @cdixon Depends how you want to use it. To send/receive BTC currency, need to own for 10 min or less.
    • @pbreit @mdudas @jyarow @cdixon To use blockchain for other purposes, may only need to own tiny amount.
    • Elapsed time from first test of TCP/IP to Netscape IPO: 20 years. Big things take time.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ianbremmer It's still unclear what the correlations between R&D input ($) and output (innovation) actually are.
    • @ianbremmer It's still unclear what the correlations between R&D input ($) and output (innovation) actually are.
    • @ianbremmer Often, as companies age, an inverse correlation seems to set in.
    • Economists find that, no surprise, mobile phones and social media have helped food trucks succeed. http://t.co/d1e5JWCyFm — (RT @amcafee)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @amcafee Thanks, that's great.
    • @amcafee Someone could write a whole book on countries that could do all those things but choose not to, despite wanting tech industry.
    • @amcafee Someone could write a whole book on countries that could do all those things but choose not to, despite wanting tech industry.
    • Download "Permissionless Innovation" free and learn what drives the future of #innovation http://t.co/aapjCkSKms — (RT @mercatus)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @kearneysean I can only imagine the science is too difficult.
    • @kearneysean But I agree. Batteries are probably the single biggest limiter to all of tech broadly right now.
    • @kearneysean But I agree. Batteries are probably the single biggest limiter to all of tech broadly right now.
    • @BlackDeveraux @pmarca @robzepeda @BenedictEvans ah so Tesco is making a 100% margin off retailing Chinese smartphones in Thailand! — (RT @myprak)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @delong The psychological scarring from the twin crises (00 & 08) runs extremely deep.
    • @delong Stock market gains since 09 have been accompanied by fear verging on panic the whole way up.
    • @delong Stock market gains since 09 have been accompanied by fear verging on panic the whole way up.
    • Tesco in Thailand is selling dual core smartphones running Android 4.4 for ~$50 USD cc @BenedictEvans @pmarca http://t.co/z6Ao1ETK9H — (RT @robzepeda)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BiotechPolicyUK @simonbayly @EconBizFin It always does. The exact same panic happens over and over again.
    • @BiotechPolicyUK @simonbayly @EconBizFin It always does. The exact same panic happens over and over again.
    • @BiotechPolicyUK @simonbayly @EconBizFin p.s. Current slow productivity growth refutes the thesis of the original article.
    • Nice #data tool from #Pew: Origins and Destinations of the World’s #Migrants, 1990-2013 http://t.co/IhdBoaRs5l — (RT @MEDevEcon)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @zaw56 @Noahpinion That's not what I'm getting at. What I mean is that there's near zero understanding of even the basics.
    • @zaw56 @Noahpinion That's not what I'm getting at. What I mean is that there's near zero understanding of even the basics.
    • @zaw56 @Noahpinion One view = people are stupid and uneducated. Another = econ field completely failing at public education.
    • @zaw56 @Noahpinion Which is the setup to my answer to the original question.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @bookmeister A lot of other US health indicators got better over that time period, not worse.
    • @bookmeister Glaeser seems to be implying that there may be a widespread disability benefits fraud issue in the US. (I have no idea.)
    • @bookmeister Glaeser seems to be implying that there may be a widespread disability benefits fraud issue in the US. (I have no idea.)
    • The "our new senior hire is a messiah" problem http://t.co/BWQOGlix1h via @ciaranoleary — (RT @gdibner)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @catlin201 It's more true in Western Europe broadly than the US, but it's also the case in the US.
    • @catlin201 Modern banking regulations that insulate incumbents from new market entrants highly effectively.
    • 1/Wrapping up my series on the secular stagnation theory with some more things I learned along the way. Again, filter on #stag as desired.
    • 2/Arguments vs Gordon's tech stagnation thesis by @B_Eichengreen (attached) and @billjaneway: http://t.co/SFP98dPmKV http://t.co/xsODikQa2O
    • 3/At some point Europe is going to either need a lot more immigrants or a lot more robots: http://t.co/WBN0JhdkBw
    • 4/Edward Glaeser: "Who would really be indifferent between earning $23K in 1984 vs $50K in 2014?" #stag http://t.co/JuTNptO2BH
    • 5/Glaeser: Before modern industrial capitalism, innovation and trade mainly benefitted the elite. #stag http://t.co/gqiQNtB1K6
    • 6/Glaeser: Startling rise in reported disabillity rates among working-age Americans over last 50 years. #stag http://t.co/lpHZifVm2H
    • 7/Glaeser: 72.7% of US college grads ages 25+ are employed, vs 39.4% of high school dropouts in same cohort. #stag
    • 8/I'd like to quote Mokyr's entire essay in the Vox ebook but that would be rude, so read the whole thing here: http://t.co/KUAhYLuUxM #stag
    • 9/Nicholas Crafts: Boy, is Europe in trouble. #stag http://t.co/7ggNJjKCCx
    • 10/Nicholas Crafts: Europe badly needs to step up technology adoption and productivity growth. #stag http://t.co/KEejDuML1D
    • 11/Olivier Blanchard: Post-crisis reforms require financial institutions to hold another $3 trillion in safe assets. (!) #stat
    • 12/Blanchard: China savings pattern is opposite of normal assumption, due to poor social insurance programs. #stag http://t.co/Fv5o4ZHun4
    • 13/Koo: Those who prevent crises never become heroes, so at least give the impending threat a great name! #stag http://t.co/dBwZifjZX0
    • 14/Reference for all of the above: http://t.co/KUAhYLuUxM. #stag @pmarca out!

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @monkbent There's next to no technological content in a Nike sneaker, and what there is changes virtually not at all over time.
    • @monkbent Hence virtually all of Nike's product differentiation is in intangible characteristics distinct from the actual product, the shoe.
    • @monkbent Whereas in tech, all the branding/marketing/experience in the world won't help you if you get lapped by technology change.
    • @monkbent Therefore the experience of Motorola, Nokia, RIM, et al in handsets, all of whom had huge marketing budgets at their peaks.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @John_Hempton @munilass @levie Yep. Particularly with lots of local generation of solar etc.
    • @John_Hempton @munilass @levie And if some new energy storage technologies under development work out...
    • @John_Hempton @munilass @levie And if some new energy storage technologies under development work out...
    • Greek patience with austerity nears its limit while #Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio at record. http://t.co/cQlCfbpsBu http://t.co/0E6nhMxCxk — (RT @Schuldensuehner)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ultimape Yep! Agree.
    • @ultimape Engineers building something for themselves (as users) is the optimal case.
    • @ultimape Engineers building something for themselves (as users) is the optimal case.
    • One in 7 residents in Detroit's Wayne County face foreclosure from unpaid property taxes http://t.co/EUNgVH4pPd http://t.co/JYcuCTPKZN — (RT @NickTimiraos)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A few tentative conclusions on secular stagnation & our economy, with vigorous disclaimer that I am far from a macroeconomist... #stag
    • 2/It seems a core dynamic of our times is too much capital relative to the number of productive investible economic opportunities. #stag
    • 3/Coupled with a massive global capital flight to quality since 2008, hard to see interest rates rising dramatically anytime soon. #stag
    • 4/While I am a bull on technological progress, it also seems that much of that progress is price deflationary in nature...
    • 5/...so even extremely rapid tech progress may not show up in GDP or productivity stats, even as it = higher real standards of living. #stag
    • 6/I think economists, particularly on the center-left and left, are really underestimating 2 factors that are inhibiting investment. #stag
    • 7/In developed world, sheer level of regulatory burden on business formation and growth. Per George McGovern: http://t.co/jqEQdPiWgp #stag
    • 8/On this point I agree deeply with @peterthiel: Many sectors of Western business are now wired to prevent or inhibit new investment. #stag
    • 9/In the developing world, often brutally high levels of corruption and expropriation, making new investment extremely risky. #stag
    • 10/It seems straightforward to identify ways to increase rate of investment, and also hard to see how any of that politically happens. #stag
    • 11/For these and other reasons, we may be living with an oversupply of capital relative to opportunity set for a long time. #stag
    • 12/But this is not necessarily a terrible world to live in. In fact, it might be a wonderful world to live in, for these reasons: #stag
    • 13/Oversupply of capital means that any investable project can get funded. We see that today in tech, and it may broaden from here. #stag
    • 14/We may experience a massive global demographic tailwind, as huge # of young people worldwide are fully connected to modern economy. #stag
    • 15/Virtuous cycle of science & tech advances, with fast-growing # of scientists & technologists globally, may overwhelm expectations. #stag
    • 16/In this world, we can have massive advances in real standards of living even w/formally low investment, GDP, & productivity growth. #stag
    • 17/Beyond that, a world where 7 billion people decide they really do want and deserve an upper-middle-class Amercan-equiv lifestyle... #stag
    • 18/...may make all of these current stagnation theories look as silly as Alvin "Secular Stagnation" Hansen now looks 76 years later. #stag

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @thogge Roughly yes. Maybe more "VC is sub-S&P500 return w/ far higher risk overall, but top 5-10 firms do extremely well over full cycles."
    • @thogge David Swensen, probably the leading venture LP of his generation, talks about this in his book: http://t.co/YyRzkjxOJ6
    • 1/An excellent survey of the original "secular stagnation" thesis of Alvin Hansen in 1938 by @TimothyTTaylor http://t.co/KAi72rRNgb #stag
    • 2/Hansen's 1938 thesis will sound familiar to post-2008 ears: #stag http://t.co/I2FctorPLw
    • 3/We know now Hansen in 1938 was thoroughly wrong. For example, he totally whiffed on population projections. #stag http://t.co/MklTZhxve1
    • 4/Hansen was also completely wrong on the rate of technological progress at that time. #stag http://t.co/vVxV7RsyHx
    • 5/However, he did issue a ringing call for new technologies and new industries that applies equally to today. #stag http://t.co/I7bLm5bO5G
    • Another interesting critique of secular stagnation, this time from the left (@dsquareddigest): http://t.co/eOSEYHvAJK

    3 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Now, thinking about a counterargument to Larry Summers' "secular stagnation" thesis from @DavidBeckworth #stag http://t.co/moDmYn4sJs
    • 2/First point: Prior risk premium in bonds warped prices+yields, made credit artifically expensive in the past. #stag http://t.co/EbJwpDYydq
    • 3/Risk prem boosted by high inflation, so lower inflation reduced rate TWO ways, lower inflation & lower risk. #stag http://t.co/Mn20krtbDS
    • 5/With low risk of future extreme inflation, real interest rate bounces along around 2%, as it should. #stag http://t.co/5w3yXj5AN6
    • 4/Decomposing interest rate from underlying inflation expectation + risk premium; both came down since 80s. #stag http://t.co/9ynJZvr3Zd

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 15/Lingering question from Larry Summers' secular stagnation thesis: #stag http://t.co/8p66PvNWfk
    • 16/Doesn't the same question apply for the past 100 years? Has the American economy ever met that criteria? #stag http://t.co/HtHXpB9FPS
    • 17/Can the goal be to get to normal if there is no normal? Or should the goal be something else? #stag
    • 17/Can the goal be to get to normal if there is no normal? Or should the goal be something else? #stag

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @stevesi Thesis as stated seems US/Europe centric.
    • @stevesi Although real interest rates do seem to be coming down worldwide over time: http://t.co/1VPAST1HYZ
    • @stevesi Although real interest rates do seem to be coming down worldwide over time: http://t.co/1VPAST1HYZ
    • @pmarca I recommend work of Carlota Perez - her thesis is pervasive low yield = indicative of major shift in dominant productive forces. — (RT @prestonjbyrne)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @davealevine Larry and others more recently arguing secular stagnation applies more to Europe than the US.
    • @davealevine However, the thesis remains interesting to the extent that the underlying capital supply/demand balance continues.
    • @davealevine However, the thesis remains interesting to the extent that the underlying capital supply/demand balance continues.
    • @pmarca the easiest counter argument (of many) is timing. Recent data shows the economy accelerating. We're only recently out of the crisis. — (RT @davealevine)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Thinking about Larry Summers' "secular stagnation" thesis -- if the topic bores you, filter out hashtag #stag for a bit :-). #stag
    • 2/@B_Eichengreen: "Secular stagnation is an economist’s Rorschach Test. It means different things to different people.” #stag
    • 3/Contrary to a lot of public discussion, Larry's thesis is about interest rates and supply/demand of capital, not technology change. #stag
    • 4/Core to secular stagnation is "substantial decline in natural real rate of interest". #stag http://t.co/kW9AIMrxZC http://t.co/uKkoRb7zU1
    • 5/Factor 1: Reduced demand for debt-financed investment, in part due to changing nature of economic activity. #stag http://t.co/E3gbtkqQaJ
    • 6/Factor 2: Declining rate of population growth, especially if one corrects for education levels. #stag http://t.co/VEZGM8RrOu
    • 7/Factor 3: Increased societal propensity to save + Increased corporate retained earnings. #stag http://t.co/RXrCFD2kck
    • 9/Factor 5: Arithmetic relationship between lower pre-tax and after-tax real interest rates. #stag http://t.co/oqh5vMuwb2
    • 10/Factor 6: Growing central bank reserves of safe assets, particularly US Treasuries. #stag http://t.co/ATM7tGCjz7
    • 11/Result: Substantial and continuing decilne in real interest rates over 50 years. #stag http://t.co/8o30RkZkg9
    • 12/To quote Notorious BIG, "mo money mo problems" -- in this case, mo money, not enough productive places & projects to put it. #stag
    • 13/As economists do, Larry then proposes a series of reforms to address the dynamic, few of which seem politically likely. #stag
    • 14/References: http://t.co/kW9AIMrxZC http://t.co/KUAhYLuUxM http://t.co/wma6y5P1TQ #stag
    • 15/Lingering question from Larry Summers' secular stagnation thesis: #stag http://t.co/8p66PvNWfk
    • 16/Doesn't the same question apply for the past 100 years? Has the American economy ever met that criteria? #stag http://t.co/HtHXpB9FPS
    • 17/Can the goal be to get to normal if there is no normal? Or should the goal be something else? #stag

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Thinking about Larry Summers' "secular stagnation" thesis -- if the topic bores you, filter out hashtag #stag for a bit :-). #stag
    • 2/@B_Eichengreen: "Secular stagnation is an economist’s Rorschach Test. It means different things to different people.” #stag
    • 3/Contrary to a lot of public discussion, Larry's thesis is about interest rates and supply/demand of capital, not technology change. #stag
    • 4/Core to secular stagnation is "substantial decline in natural real rate of interest". #stag http://t.co/kW9AIMrxZC http://t.co/uKkoRb7zU1
    • 5/Factor 1: Reduced demand for debt-financed investment, in part due to changing nature of economic activity. #stag http://t.co/E3gbtkqQaJ
    • 6/Factor 2: Declining rate of population growth, especially if one corrects for education levels. #stag http://t.co/VEZGM8RrOu
    • 8/Factor 4: Decline in relative prices of business & consumer capital goods (tech-driven price deflation?). #stag http://t.co/AY2PKVkoFD
    • 7/Factor 3: Increased societal propensity to save + Increased corporate retained earnings. #stag http://t.co/RXrCFD2kck

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @azizonomics Along with complete acknowledgement of the resulting problem. Zero intention to resolve.
    • @azizonomics I know that's what they'd say right now anyway, but I'm still inclined to take them at their word.
    • @azizonomics I know that's what they'd say right now anyway, but I'm still inclined to take them at their word.
    • Falling demand only appears to account for half of the drop in the oil price. I would have guessed much more. http://t.co/0nAEufQ1Re — (RT @Noahpinion)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 6/The global savings glut after the 2000 equity market crash, and the low interest rates that followed: http://t.co/eYsV2AanGG
    • 7/The oddness of developing countries investing in developed countries rather than the other way around: http://t.co/DqNsxgNtLI
    • 9/There it is: http://t.co/h7ZYPrNeI4
    • 10/On global current account deficits and surpluses after Bernanke 2005 and the 2008 financial crisis: http://t.co/1KcZGCVSPS
    • 12/Even after developed world financial crisis, developing world still invests much more in developed countries than vice versa.
    • 14/How would global capital flows look if all countries treated capital as well as the US does? (Not that we lack issues, to be sure.)
    • 13/Like Bernanke, I believe in Wriston's Law: "Capital will go where it is wanted and stay where it is well treated." http://t.co/sW40jeY5Li

    3 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Considering the Bernanke "global savings glut" hypothesis from 2005 -- what holds up, what doesn't: http://t.co/ZHXTSIdvkj
    • 2/Ah, the good old days of 2005, when the major US macroeconomic concern was the trade deficit: http://t.co/A1lsv38viF
    • 3/The global savings glut thesis: http://t.co/T8OiLxYjWc
    • 4/Global savings glut in rich countries with aging populations, which run trade surpluses and invest abroad: http://t.co/Xy8UtRLKNd
    • 5/The role of financial crises in causing developing world countries to invest more abroad: http://t.co/iwzIexiF1J
    • 6/The global savings glut after the 2000 equity market crash, and the low interest rates that followed: http://t.co/eYsV2AanGG
    • 7/The oddness of developing countries investing in developed countries rather than the other way around: http://t.co/DqNsxgNtLI

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @moorehn Just read https://t.co/sdFfl0hGla which is a dry 1890 economics text, except where he sidebars a detailed disquisition on the Jews.
    • @moorehn Related, per the recent New Republic kerfuffle, googling "Herbert Croly eugenics" is an eye-opener.
    • @moorehn Related, per the recent New Republic kerfuffle, googling "Herbert Croly eugenics" is an eye-opener.
    • Guys what's a good biography on Modi to recommend to someone who doesn't know India/Indian politics well? — (RT @tejus_sawjiani)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @zaid I think there are two scenarios.
    • @zaid One is where you choose to build a services organization. There is some risk of disincenting good software, but it can be managed.
    • @zaid The other is when new customers stop buying as much of your software & you need services to make up the revenue gap.
    • Astonishing new picture of 1km high cliff on comet #67P @ESA_Rosetta http://t.co/WGsNdL6RV2 http://t.co/SwbdxIWQ0J — (RT @davidshukmanbbc)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • The argument in favor of the 1930s as a technological innovation boom. #glf http://t.co/2UdmNrb0sm
    • 1930s as the decade in which industrial-scale Research & Development fully arrived. #glf http://t.co/S3LKVJkcyA
    • 1930s as decade when the technologies for scaled surface road transportation & distribution fully arrived. #glf http://t.co/Xsl2AAvVki
    • 1930s as decade when the technologies for modern housing at scale fully arrived. #glf http://t.co/h3ZOozinnn
    • 1930s as the decade in which modern physical networks crystallized: transportation, distribution, & more. #glf http://t.co/3AlWA0doqV
    • 1930s US built its first national road network -- and probably would have with or without the Depression. #glf http://t.co/e1SvLarxFO
    • The 1930s version of network buildout was the modern surface transportation & distribution network. #glf http://t.co/g4xd4exOea
    • Tweetshotting from "A Great Leap Forward" by Alexander Field--I HIGHLY recommend it for understanding our times. http://t.co/8dyhCHZMs4 #glf

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Over the last 2 days I've been tweetshotting excerpts from David Wells, "Recent Economic Changes", 1890: https://t.co/814vpfqcBH
    • 2/For background reading on the economic period of ~1870-1890: http://t.co/EPbpyeRK8H http://t.co/zGLTrtpCBA
    • 3/This period is not a direct historical analog to ours, but it's probably as close an analog as there is, along with the 1920s-1930s.
    • 4/Each of the three periods struggled with serious macroeconomic crises, albeit substantially different natures. Hard to compare those.
    • 5/People of that time did wonder the same questions that are being so frequently asked today:
    • 7/What is the future of income and wealth distribution and returns from progress -- for labor and for capital?
    • 8/How do present changes compare to those in the past, and what can be forecast about the changes yet to come?
    • 9/What kind of world are we building, and what kind of world will we leave for our children and grandchildren?
    • 10/Wells, writing in 1890, would have been wholly gobsmacked at the widely distributed gains of the next 100 years! http://t.co/5mE6cUfYlF
    • 11/It may not surprise you that I think we are going to repeat what Brad describes in http://t.co/5mE6cUfYlF in this century again.
    • 12/But, we actually have to prove it, and do it.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Over the last 2 days I've been tweetshotting excerpts from David Wells, "Recent Economic Changes", 1890: https://t.co/814vpfqcBH
    • 2/For background reading on the economic period of ~1870-1890: http://t.co/EPbpyeRK8H http://t.co/zGLTrtpCBA
    • 3/This period is not a direct historical analog to ours, but it's probably as close an analog as there is, along with the 1920s-1930s.
    • 4/Each of the three periods struggled with serious macroeconomic crises, albeit substantially different natures. Hard to compare those.
    • 6/What is the nature of technology-driven economic change and creative disruption?
    • 5/People of that time did wonder the same questions that are being so frequently asked today:

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jonfortt She does tie a lot of it to decline of agriculture as a primary sector for entrepreneurship, but not all of it.
    • @jonfortt She does tie a lot of it to decline of agriculture as a primary sector for entrepreneurship, but not all of it.
    • @jonfortt She also fingers the great northern migration as disrupting existing support networks.
    • @jonfortt She also discusses the "Buy Black" movement around 1900.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @WeberWest @jacobwe @mathewi The big Internet companies make hard choices in this domain every single day.
    • @WeberWest @jacobwe @mathewi Each country has its own laws and government actions, and lots of power to impose those laws/actions.
    • @WeberWest @jacobwe @mathewi Pulling out, or getting kicked out, is always an option but it's a one-way door. Can't reverse and go back in.
    • @WeberWest @jacobwe @mathewi Real questions about what's better for people in each country: compromise & be present, or be pure & pull out.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @seehafer Conventional view is progress died in the 30s and then got restarted by the war. Field argues essentially the opposite.
    • @seehafer Field argues huge surge of latent productivity in 30s due to rollout of transportation & communication networks. & WWII was waste.
    • @seehafer So 1945-1950s was payoff from all the advances in the 1930s whose impact had been held back by the economic depression.
    • @seehafer And that had WWII not happened, not only would US have recovered in 1940s, but would have recovered even stronger without war.
    • It’s ironic that many blast Washington politicians by saying they’re “anti-business.” Many are very pro-business — but anti-competition. — (RT @arthurbrooks)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BenedictEvans Yep.
    • @BenedictEvans Yep.
    • @BenedictEvans Yuri Milner & Alexander Tamas used to argue the other difference was non-US Internet co's had to monetize faster.
    • @BenedictEvans ...So non-US Internet companies were much more aggressive & pragmatic about adding $-generating functions to IM & SN prods.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Fascinating overview of the secular stagnation hypothesis from the Bank of Italy (in English): https://t.co/rfnHkupv2o
    • 2/"After reviewing recent long-run projections, we argue that similar warnings were issued in the past after all deep recessions."
    • 3/"Interestingly, pessimistic predictions turned out to be wrong neither because they were built on erroneous theories or data..."
    • 4/"...nor because they failed to predict new tech, but because they underestimated the potential of the technologies that already existed."
    • 5/"These findings suggest that today we should not make the same mistake and undervalue the effects of information technology."
    • 6/This matches my personal belief: Much current economic commentary is result of living through a 15 year down cycle, which will change.
    • 7/Interestingly, our friend Larry Summers on CNBC today conceded secular stagnation may be more a Europe/Japan issue than a US issue.
    • 8/If the US economy is indeed at the front of a broad-based recovery, as it appears, it will be interesting to see where this issue lands.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BenedictEvans Have you seen "Pineapple Express"?
    • @BenedictEvans Have you seen "Pineapple Express"?
    • @BenedictEvans We might need to have a viewing party.
    • Buffett describing "the institutional imperative" — one of the hardest problems to guard against: http://t.co/oWQQdYE64K — (RT @EdBorgato)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @datarade @balajis We have a whole theory/story around that for us but I'd take us out of it when thinking about the broader questions...
    • @datarade @balajis Historically persistence of returns by top firms = some combo of high competence + pattern of repeating deal flow.
    • @datarade @balajis Two big factors have really dominated historically.
    • @datarade @balajis One is that founders tend to go to the VCs they already know, often the ones who funded co's they worked at in the past.
    • @datarade @balajis The other is VC brand halo for early-stage startup very useful for recruiting, early customer acq, & subsequent funding.
    • @datarade @balajis The combo of factors resulted in it being more or less a no brainer for founders to prefer a few top firms in all cases.
    • @datarade @balajis The big debate in the industry today is which of these thing are changing: deal flow patterns & founder preferences.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BlairReeves @fmanjoo The general idea is old. The way Mixpanel has implemented it is new and extremely impressive.
    • @BlairReeves @fmanjoo Worth remembering, almost all ideas in our industry are old. But there are big leaps forward in making them work.
    • @BlairReeves @fmanjoo Worth remembering, almost all ideas in our industry are old. But there are big leaps forward in making them work.
    • @BlairReeves @fmanjoo The proof is in the pudding. The more sophisticated and up-to-speed the developers, the higher odds they use Mixpanel.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @fmanjoo @a16z A very large % of the best new Internet companies use their service to track & analyze user behavior on mobile & web.
    • @fmanjoo @a16z A very large % of the best new Internet companies use their service to track & analyze user behavior on mobile & web.
    • @fmanjoo @a16z They are expanding out from that foothold to other customer categories, use cases, and features/benefits for analytics.
    • @fmanjoo @a16z The long-term goal they are going after is prediction of future user behavior from current analytics. Incredibly valuable.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Today, we @a16z are proud to announce we are leading a new inside growth round for Mixpanel: http://t.co/ZkQy0FxmLh
    • 2/Mixpanel, led by @Suhail Doshi, is one of our fastest-revenue-growth companies, and has been profitable since we invested 3 yrs ago.
    • 3/In fact, Mixpanel is unusual in that the new investment round will not go to accelerating growth, opening int'l offices, or the like.
    • 4/Mixpanel generates cash internally to fully fund continued expansion of its current business. Rather, Suhail has more ambitious goals.
    • 5/We originally invested in Mixpanel because it makes state-of-the-art mobile/web analytics easy for every company in the world.
    • 6/Mixpanel lets you track actions not just pageviews (The smartest entrepreneurs pitching us were showing us their data thru a MP dashboard)
    • 7/The broader goal: Help the world learn from its data -- to bring data science to every domain, to fundamentally improve how things work.
    • 8/Mixpanel will use the new financing to build new products, acquire, break into new markets -- and take crazy risks that may work or fail.
    • 9/Mixpanel will go straight after the goal of predicting the future with data -- what we think is the next phase of analytics.
    • 10/And always, Mixpanel will be about merging the best of what machines can do with the best of what people can do: processing + judgment.
    • 11/We're thrilled to double down on our support of Suhail and the Mixpanel team. Follow them at @Mixpanel and @Suhail!

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @thomaspower Yep.
    • @thomaspower That was also around the time that businesses started to become computerized in the modern sense.
    • @thomaspower The 80s brought minicomputers and then Unix servers, RDBs, business apps, LANs, office productivity to business...
    • @thomaspower The tipoff is that reported productivity growth has been relatively low throughout. Explainable via escalating price deflation.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BenedictEvans Another one?
    • @BenedictEvans Another one?
    • @BenedictEvans We're now entering year 10 of these. Have seen, I think, zero mea culpas so far.
    • Double-shoulder level amputee using robotic prosthetic limbs. Amazing. https://t.co/ajz6EkPnsQ — (RT @andrewtrabulsi)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @MaxCRoser How much is inventor incented by fluid access to ex ante network vs incented by prospect of ex post patent monopoly?
    • @MaxCRoser This is what we are seeing in software. The former overwhelmingly dominates the latter.
    • @MaxCRoser This is what we are seeing in software. The former overwhelmingly dominates the latter.
    • The ruble had a good day. Don’t expect it to last. Good @JHWeissmann explainer. http://t.co/fiLIPyuGqO — (RT @ObsoleteDogma)

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @nachkari Toronto/Waterloo is very fertile/promising. There is the clear potential for great things there.
    • @nachkari In my view needs a little more of everything. A little more talent, a little more money, a few more successes, a little more time.
    • @nachkari Very close. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Toronto/Waterloo grows a lot as a startup hub over the next 10 years.
    • @nachkari Parenthetically, RIM going down will probably turn out to be helpful. Freeing up lots of talent, even if it's not fun for now.

    3 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @kairyssdal @Steve_Katz @raju @mathewi As I think more about it, I like this idea. May need some regulatory reform/relief to do it.
    • @kairyssdal @Steve_Katz @raju @mathewi Ideally want to let people freely lend to nonprofits or hybrid co's, specifically or by category.
    • @kairyssdal @Steve_Katz @raju @mathewi Could run like a reverse dutch auction, maybe -- bid by knocking points off interest rate.
    • @kairyssdal @Steve_Katz @raju @mathewi Ideally would get tax deduction for reduced interest rate same as straight charitable contribution.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dandrezner So there are a series of nested questions...
    • @dandrezner 1. Is it possible for anyone to transform TNR from a nonprofit to a for-profit without losing what makes it special?
    • @dandrezner 2. If it is possible, then is the quote-unquote Silicon Valley playbook a viable path to do that?
    • @dandrezner 3. If the SV playbook could work, then do these two individuals have the experiences + skills required for the SV playbook?
    • @dandrezner 4. If they do, then what roles can/should the leaders & staff of the existing institution play in the new plan, from both sides?

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @EdwardAndLarkin @amcafee Right, that's a good way to look at it.
    • @EdwardAndLarkin @amcafee Right, that's a good way to look at it.
    • @EdwardAndLarkin @amcafee Simplified, kind of like how manufacturing chain works. There's always a bottleneck, but it moves.
    • Falling yen, now at seven-year low, stirs debate in Japan http://t.co/pcQ2JqrkUx — (RT @pdacosta)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Glaeser: One-stop permitting for entrepreneurs #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • "What I'd like to see is a city-by-city ease of starting a business index" #CatoGrowth Yes. This. One of the best things for local gov. — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Mayors value being seen as an entrepreneurial city. All the more reason to give them more power. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Need to devolve as much as possible to cities to get reform. National politicians unaccountable, local are. #CatoGrowth #politics — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Accountability for regulation is key. Lots more evaluation of budget items, not of regulations. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Congress gets best of both world, gets to claim regulatory wins, blame agencies for failures. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Set up a regulatory improvement commission says @MichaelMandel #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Important to remember: Silicon Valley is 3% of GDP. It can't save us. #CatoGrowth #tech #SiliconValley — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Educating people to appreciate adventure and creativity matters for innovation. @EdmundPhelps #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Corporatist attitudes and norms lead to rampant social protection, and less innovation. @EdmundPhelps #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Glaeser: One-stop permitting for entrepreneurs #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • "What I'd like to see is a city-by-city ease of starting a business index" #CatoGrowth Yes. This. One of the best things for local gov. — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Mayors value being seen as an entrepreneurial city. All the more reason to give them more power. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Need to devolve as much as possible to cities to get reform. National politicians unaccountable, local are. #CatoGrowth #politics — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Accountability for regulation is key. Lots more evaluation of budget items, not of regulations. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Congress gets best of both world, gets to claim regulatory wins, blame agencies for failures. #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)
    • Set up a regulatory improvement commission says @MichaelMandel #CatoGrowth — (RT @NickZaiac)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Bhide: Nondestructive creation is important, too. Airplanes did not displace cars #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Bhide: It is this his "new want innovation" that absorbs resources released by creative destrcution #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Bhide: Total factor productivity is bad measure of innovation. Ignores value captured by consumers #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Bhide: Value of new products serving new wants poorly captured by current econ stats #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Bhide: Worried about regulation impact on US dynamism, favor large biz and suppress small biz #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • John Haltiwanger: "There is no doubt" US economic dynamism is in decline #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Haltiwanger: "Much lower levels of dynamism and fluidity" in the US labor market #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Haltiwanger: Declining entrepreneurship could mean less effective implementation of innovations #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Haltiwanger: Less dynamism bad for growth, innovation, and young workers trying to build careers #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @erikbryn: long tradition of pessimism during economic downturns #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • @erikbryn innovation is combinatorial. more brains globally connected to global info network #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Gordon vs @erikbryn sounds like an accountant vs. a venture capitalist #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)
    • Gordon vs @erikbryn sounds like an accountant vs. a venture capitalist #CatoGrowth — (RT @JimPethokoukis)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Few intellectual concepts in our time have been mangled by observers more than Clay Christensen's disruption idea. Some thoughts:
    • 2/CC: "A disruptive innovation gives new consumers access to product historically only available to consumers with a lot of money or skill."
    • 3/CC: "Disruptors offer a different set of product attributes valued only in new markets remote from, and unimportant to, the mainstream."
    • 4/The key attribute of disruptive innovation is a new product for a previously underserved market--typically cheaper than existing product.
    • 5/This is inherently pro-consumer: Disruptive innovation only works if customers buy it--and if they do, lives improved vs prior status quo.
    • 7/It's a fabricated myth that disruptive innovation is about destruction: It's about creation--new products, new choices, for more people.
    • 8/Later, of course, new product often evolves to squarely take on incumbents serving established customers--cheaper & better for them too!
    • 9/Disruptive innovation shrinks inequality, by bringing to lower-income consumers things that only richer consumers had access to before.
    • 10/If you are reading this, many of the things you own that make your life better are the result of prior disruptive innovation.
    • 11/Printing press disrupted books from scribes; recorded music disrupted live concerts in homes, washing machines disrupted live-in maids.
    • 12/Rich people always had books, music, clean clothes, etc.; disruptive innovation made these things available to many more people.
    • 13/In exact same way, sub-$50 smartphones as disruptive innovation to PCs bringing computing & Internet to far more people than status quo.
    • 14/To be FOR disruption is to be FOR consumer choice, FOR more people bring served, and FOR shrinking inequality.
    • 15/To be AGAINST disruption is to be AGAINST consumer choice, AGAINST more people bring served, and AGAINST shrinking inequality.
    • 16/If we want to make the world a better and more equal place--the more Christensen-style disruption, and the faster, the better!
    • 17/References: http://t.co/9dbASWMYgt, http://t.co/IZnvsmiQ71, http://t.co/9L6ZKjiAgS
    • @pmarca: Summarized: Cheaper luxury/essentials + Wide accessibility + Better job creation = Disruption — (RT @startuployalist)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Few intellectual concepts in our time have been mangled by observers more than Clay Christensen's disruption idea. Some thoughts:
    • 2/CC: "A disruptive innovation gives new consumers access to product historically only available to consumers with a lot of money or skill."
    • 3/CC: "Disruptors offer a different set of product attributes valued only in new markets remote from, and unimportant to, the mainstream."
    • 4/The key attribute of disruptive innovation is a new product for a previously underserved market--typically cheaper than existing product.
    • 6/Similar, disruptive innovation is only funded by investors who believe underserved market exists, customers will buy it, lives improved.
    • 5/This is inherently pro-consumer: Disruptive innovation only works if customers buy it--and if they do, lives improved vs prior status quo.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @pegobry @JimPethokoukis A little more problematic than that. Breaking Baumol's cost disease -> reduce relative employment in those sectors.
    • @pegobry @JimPethokoukis BTW I am all in favor of it (fixing Baumol for edu & HC) -- we're increasingly working on that at our firm.
    • @pegobry @JimPethokoukis BTW I am all in favor of it (fixing Baumol for edu & HC) -- we're increasingly working on that at our firm.
    • "The space between 'starving artist' and 'rich and famous' is beginning to collapse." https://t.co/pqv9nxkkWl http://t.co/wKVJuRe8V1 — (RT @cdixon)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jayrosen_nyu @DevinHaran There is arguably one narrow field of investing where being a pure contrarian is a good strategy...
    • @jayrosen_nyu @DevinHaran ...running a portfolio of lots of small positions in deep out of the money call options (e.g. tech angel).
    • @jayrosen_nyu @DevinHaran Described conceptually very well in @nntaleb's book "Antifragility".
    • @jayrosen_nyu @DevinHaran @nntaleb But otherwise, selective contrarianism probably works better.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @lhon I know, but there was a huge difference between those two in the past. Most working Americans never had what you describe.
    • @lhon There was only ever a golden jobs age for a small minority: white, male, straight, abled, certain reigions, certain national origins.
    • @lhon I'm not challenging that people don't feel what you're saying. I'm challenging that those feelings are based mostly on myths.
    • @lhon Myths are comforting but dangerous.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama It's great as far as it goes, but it leaves open a lot of questions that will change one's interpretation.
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 1 How were the customers acquired?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 2 Will that method of customer acquisition scale?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 3 How big is the market?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 4 What are the per customer economics (cost vs revenue)?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 5 How much of the growth is from new customer acquisition vs upsells to current customers?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 6 What's the churn?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 7 What's the customer concentration?
    • @PeterVOrtho @joshelman @sama 8 What's the competitive dynamic, and what does that mean for future per-customer economics?

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @sbermo @semil Demographics + single-party gov't + systemic misallocation of capital + little entrepreneurship + little immigration...
    • @sbermo @semil Demographics + single-party gov't + systemic misallocation of capital + little entrepreneurship + little immigration...
    • @sbermo @semil In the US, we have no shortage of problems, but we are on the right side of each of these relative to Japan.
    • @sbermo @semil Thanks, ironically, in large part due to undocumented immigration. Keeps our birthrate up, working age low, culture dynamic.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @JohnSherer Oh yes! :-)
    • @JohnSherer Yes, that's the concern. With new tech, customers often don't know what they want until you build it.
    • @JohnSherer Meaning people often don't know the use cases or jobs to be done ahead of time.
    • Excellent story from @kristenhare about high school journalists telling the #Ferguson story: http://t.co/ZLlc8PYZVA — (RT @BenMullin)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @iankar_ It's a mapping of a certain growth trajectory to certain financial characteristics.
    • @iankar_ Depends on how big one expects the market to be, and how fast one thinks the company can grow to go get it.
    • @iankar_ E.g. with software co's, VCs look for fast sales growth + positive gross margins. Figure high net margins will come down the road.
    • @iankar_ ...But you don't actually want high net margins today, since that would mean you're not growing sales & marketing fast enough.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @iankar_ Wide variability by kind of business model.
    • @iankar_ The general difference is that gross is "all dollars", net is "gross dollars - expenses" = "what's left for me at the end".
    • @iankar_ So gross profit = revenue - COGS (embedded 3rd party components). Net profit = gross profit - operating expenses.
    • @iankar_ But this all works very differently for hardware companies vs software companies vs online services, etc.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @RyanAvenue 1 Cover minimal personal burn rate (cheap apartment + cheap food) with freelance programming jobs (Rentacoder, CL, etc.).
    • @RyanAvenue 2 Spend all extra time becoming leading open source contributor on Github for leading-edge software area e.g. Bitcoin.
    • @RyanAvenue 3 Build extensive Twitter, blogging, social media presence based on 2.
    • @RyanAvenue 4 Get hired as remote contractor at one or more serious tech companies based on 2 and 3.
    • @RyanAvenue 5 After knocking contracting jobs out of the park, leverage into full-time job at top-end tech company.
    • @RyanAvenue 6 Five years hard work to become established as one of the best people at that company; build lots of relationships w/smart ppl.
    • @RyanAvenue 7 Raise venture capital to start new company with the best people I know from 6.
    • Google Hangouts in Chrome on Mac Air: Very good, but still has feedback issues when using laptop's microphone & speakers?!?

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi Browsers = FIrefox, Chrome, Safari, Opera, tons of mobile upstarts, browsers embedded in apps, etc.
    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi Web/app servers = huge business for Oracle, IBM + lots of startups + tons of open source
    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi Javascript became an entire industry with tons of tools, frameworks, consulting firms, etc.
    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi SSL is now an entire ecosystem -- and there are SSL-specific firewalls, hacking systems, tons of open source
    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi Ecommerce apps, publishing apps, customer service apps = all big industries w/many players today.
    • @EvelynRusli @stevesi And so forth. Even proxy servers and load balancers turned into pretty large industries w/multiple big players.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Powerful essay by @stevenbjohnson: "We're living the dream; we just don't realize it" -- http://t.co/OSVVjlQcXB
    • 2/"Over the past two decades, what have the US trends been for the following important measures of social health:"
    • 3/"High school dropout rates, college enrollment, juvenile crime, drunken driving, traffic deaths, infant mortality, life expectancy..."
    • 4/"Per capita gasoline consumption, workplace injuries, air pollution, divorce, male-female wage equality, charitable giving..."
    • 5/"Voter turnout, per capita GDP and teen pregnancy?"
    • 6/"The answer for all of them is the same: The trend is positive. Almost all have improved by more than 20% over the past two decades."
    • 7/"Many Americans are convinced 'half marriages end in divorce': not the case since early 80s--since, they have declined by almost a third."
    • 8/"Even though the world's population has doubled over past 50 years, percentage living in poverty has declined by 50% over that period."
    • 9/"Positive trends in our social health are coming from a complex network of forces [vs big-bang tech breakthroughs]."
    • 10/"No one takes out a prime-time ad campaign to tout the remarkable decrease in air pollution that we have seen over the past few decades."
    • 11/"Curmudgeons, doomsayers, utopians & declinists all have easier time getting PR than those who celebrate slow & steady improvement."
    • 12/"In long run, media bias against incremental progress may be more damaging than any bias the media display toward left or right."
    • 13/"The media are heavily biased toward extreme events, and they are slightly biased toward negative events..."
    • 14/"...though in their defense, that bias may be reflection of human brain's documented propensity to focus more on negative information."
    • 15/"We underestimate the amount of steady progress that continues around us, and we misunderstand where that progress comes from."
    • 16/"We should celebrate stories of progress, not to rest on our laurels but so we can inspire the next generation to build on that success."
    • @pmarca @stevenbjohnson Reminds me of this @PeterDiamandis book http://t.co/hXJSeBwt1B — (RT @Taylor_Soper)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Hello! An update on life on #67P - Yesterday was exhausting! I actually performed 3 landings,15:33, 17:26 & 17:33 UTC. Stay tuned for more — (RT @Philae2014)
    • Now that I’m safely on the ground, here is what my new home #67P looks like from where I am. #CometLanding http://t.co/gFmt8Ldvpa — (RT @Philae2014)
    • Another stunning image of my new home taken by ROLIS during #CometLanding yesterday, when I was just 40 m from #67P http://t.co/I8OZ5kXjXA — (RT @Philae2014)
    • The view is absolutely breathtaking ESA_Rosetta! Unlike anything I've ever seen #CometLanding http://t.co/flsSdxz0bo — (RT @Philae2014)
    • Got more OSIRIS pics from your descent @philae2014, so made a neat movie: http://t.co/zXMGaclo0z #CometLanding http://t.co/Bn28sh1H2r — (RT @ESA_Rosetta)
    • And later when you’re nearer #67P @philae2014...but then you’re just a dot! http://t.co/VrFXFTSAIF #CometLanding http://t.co/mgzuJmVRpx — (RT @ESA_Rosetta)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @NiallPeat No, the decrease in global economic inequality is a huge deal. Billions of people experiencing rising incomes for first time.
    • @NiallPeat But there's also a top end of income and wealth in the developing world that is often extractive to the point of outright theft.
    • @NiallPeat But there's also a top end of income and wealth in the developing world that is often extractive to the point of outright theft.
    • @pmarca Since Sept. 1 a whopping 45 percent of contracts signed on units above $4 million were made off of floorplans http://t.co/sg3ka7Vtrj — (RT @swittatwitta)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @zachcoelius My view (could be wrong) is that what's happening in Bay Area is supply/demand imbalances, not inflation.
    • @zachcoelius One thing I think underappreciated about the runup in housing prices in NY/London/LA/Hamptons/Aspen, for example...
    • @zachcoelius ...as well as art, is the impact of a dramatic influx of ultra-high-net-worth buyers from countries like China and Russia.
    • @zachcoelius So rise in those asset prices doesn't necessarily reflect inflation as much as capital flight from those other countries.
    • @zachcoelius Bay Area real estate is more a function of the post-2009 tech resurgence, and very limited new supply of housing.
    • 1/Hedge fund baron Paul Singer: "London, Manhattan, Aspen, & East Hampton real estate, & art, prices [show] leading edge of hyperinflation."
    • 2/There are a bunch of reasons to believe that his theory is wrong, but one that I think is under-appreciated is this:
    • 3/Those are specific markets seeing dramatic influx of ultra-high-net-worth buyers from overseas--China, Russia, and certain other nations.
    • 4/You can see this vividly in this week's art auctions in New York, and it's been obvious in London real estate for some time.
    • 5/Another: "30% of all apartments 49th-70th Streets between Fifth&Park are vacant at least 10 months a year." http://t.co/WkMCc0fIG3
    • 6/So price rises in these specific assets can likely be explained by simple supply & demand without requiring inflation, hyper or otherwise.
    • 7/And therefore price rises in these assets do not necessarily indicate much of anything about the domestic macroeconomic situation.
    • 8/In fact, obvious "bullish on America" argument here: Capital fleeing other countries and landing specifically in US (& UK!) real estate.
    • 9/Further, these asset prices may be explainable quite independently of the various QE & inequality debates happening within the US.
    • 10/On a global economic scale, the total value of this specific real estate + art is not that large. Prices easily altered by capital flows.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @nishant86shah @tparekh Compensation doesn't need to be transparent for the arbitrage to work.
    • @nishant86shah @tparekh Employers just need to know the max they'd actually pay to fill those jobs.
    • @nishant86shah @tparekh Employers just need to know the max they'd actually pay to fill those jobs.
    • @nishant86shah @tparekh Market negotiation between supply and demand takes care of the rest.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @yalimgerger Fair is a loaded word. I am describing how economic logic matches productivity and wages, not claiming moral fairness.
    • @yalimgerger We have many redistribution mechanisms to fix our collective view of fairness. That's on top of what I'm talking about.
    • @yalimgerger BTW I have personally worked many of the low wage jobs. Dishwasher, lawn care, farmhand, retail stock/checkout, etc.
    • @yalimgerger I wasn't happy not getting paid much but I wanted to understand why or why not and not just complain about fairness.
    • Low wage jobs I have personally held: Dishwasher (12hrs/day on feet), lawn care (hot summers), retail stock/checkout, unskilled farm labor.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @yalimgerger Fair is a loaded word. I am describing how economic logic matches productivity and wages, not claiming moral fairness.
    • @yalimgerger We have many redistribution mechanisms to fix our collective view of fairness. That's on top of what I'm talking about.
    • @yalimgerger BTW I have personally worked many of the low wage jobs. Dishwasher, lawn care, farmhand, retail stock/checkout, etc.
    • @yalimgerger I wasn't happy not getting paid much but I wanted to understand why or why not and not just complain about fairness.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @joshtpm It can't happen IF labor and capital markets are clearing properly.
    • @joshtpm My point is that if you are concerned about the issue, the way to address it is to make sure labor & capital markets clear right.
    • @joshtpm But the irony is the same people most concerned about the issue are usually least in favor of free, properly clearing L & C mkts.
    • @joshtpm The answer to defects in capitalism is often more capitalism -- more competition, more employers, more capital, freer markets.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Problem with claim that workers aren't getting fair compensation for productivity gains: Clear arbitrage opportunity for other employers.
    • So if u believe workers aren't getting fair comp for productivity gains, the real question is, why aren't labor markets clearing properly?
    • And if you believe labor markets aren't clearing properly, then what's interfering w/formation & growth of new businesses to hire people?
    • @pmarca with more work able to happen remotely, this is more true than ever before. HQ/Factories could exploit location/isolation. — (RT @stevesi)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @TMFBiggles The Ant-Man they're doing is not that one.
    • @TMFBiggles It should be, God willing, highly funny :-).
    • @TMFBiggles It should be, God willing, highly funny :-).
    • U.S. companies are now stashing $2,000,000,000,000 overseas » http://t.co/YFa25VlfJk http://t.co/FE7X4QhEnp — (RT @CNBC)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jyarow Every scaled social network went through surges and plateaus of new users as they worked through adding new kinds of users.
    • @jyarow That isn't to say that it's easy or automatic, but it is the success pattern. The user numbers are never smooth up and to right.
    • @jyarow So the big question on user growth is not any of the current numbers but, can T continue to add new categories of users over time.
    • @jyarow Eg, different ages, gender, ethnicities, languages, nationalities, income levels, kinds of interest, kinds of activity...
    • @jyarow As a long term investor I really only have three questions:
    • @jyarow 1 Do I think long-term user/usage growth will be strong (but not necessarily smooth) given nature of platform & network effects?
    • @jyarow 2 Do I believe company can field $-generating products and programs that attract lots of non-experimental demand over long run?
    • @jyarow 3 Do I believe CEO and team are up to the challenge of working through 1 and 2?
    • @jyarow I think answers to all 3 are "yes" but your mileage may vary. If I am right, user and revenue growth of 10x will happen & pay off.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jyarow I think the big question is not any of this but rather the strength of the network effect and therefore the competitive moat.
    • @jyarow I'm a believer, I think it's strong, meaning things that may be dangerous for other companies should just be matter of time for T.
    • @jyarow But if you believe the moat is weaker than I do, then you get a lot more concerned about near-term performance metrics.
    • @jyarow So in my view all these questions should be placed within that context. Different business models = different implications.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Too high level to infer much of everything. Many underlying questions.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Eg, social networks tend to surge and then plateau as they add new kinds of users: need to examine thru that lens.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Eg, antispam efforts will tend to push down on usage metrics while improving user experience.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Eg, patterns of ratio and growth rates of readers vs tweeters and tweets.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Eg, for $ analysis, current level of monetization & ad products vs underutilized potential of existing base.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Good news is Wall St gets that it's not just about this Q's $, need to look at underlying usage trends.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Bad news is Wall St seems overfocused on a few top-line usage #'s, vs more complex dynamics within.
    • @RichBTIG @BenedictEvans Eg, what do we know about strength of network effects moat; what is fuse for company to work through any issues.
    • Another incredible shot: Moments before touchdown, #Philae took this pic of the landing site. http://t.co/OH2xBQuFJG http://t.co/iw7aegrwII — (RT @BadAstronomer)

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Enough people asking what I think of net neutrality so I will attempt to answer, but warning, I do not have a clean and simple answer!
    • 2/I think permissionless innovation, nondiscriminatory nature of Internet is of critical importance and must be maintained or strengthened.
    • 3/I also think telco/cable companies need incentives to build far more/better net infrastructure than we have now & be able to make $ on it.
    • 4/Due to the economics of network businesses, I think these are extremely difficult principles to reconcile & I don't envy the regulators.
    • 5/I further worry about simplistic and politicized nature of much of the debate, which I think is not conducive to navigating complexity.
    • 6/And I further still worry about the sausage-making of any regulatory process & the likelihood of unanticipated & undesirable outcomes.
    • 7/And generally, I try to spend my time trying to figure out how to bring more/better/faster Internet to more people in new/different ways.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Title II FCC regulations were created in 1934, based directly on railroad regulations from 1887, 125+ years ago. http://t.co/auLvBeIY7a
    • 2/Here are some other things that happened in 1887, same year railroad regulations that then became telecom regulations were designed:
    • 3/In 1887, Arthur Conan Doyle's detective character Sherlock Holmes makes his first appearance, in the novel A Study in Scarlet.
    • 4/In 1887, the earliest constituent of the U.S. National Institutes of Health is established in Staten Island as the Laboratory of Hygiene.
    • 5/In 1887, construction of the iron structure of the Eiffel Tower starts in Paris, France.
    • 6/In 1887, Gottlieb Daimler, the cofounder of the company that now makes Mercedes cars, unveils his first automobile.
    • 7/In 1887, the cornerstone of the new Stanford University, in northern California, is laid (the college opens in 1891).
    • 8/In 1887, the Giuseppe Verdi opera Otello premieres at La Scala.
    • 9/In 1887, Emile Berliner is granted a patent for his Gramophone, the flat-disc phonograph.
    • 11/These and many more described here: http://t.co/GZcTOQH5FO
    • 10/Finally, in 1887, Chester Greenwood patents earmuffs.

    4 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Frances_Coppola Yes, all the time. You see a particularly potent version of this in the tech industry...
    • @Frances_Coppola Company X fails, then Company Y forms and hires all the same people from Company X and succeeds.
    • @Frances_Coppola Often Company Y even actually occupies Company X's old office buildings.
    • @Frances_Coppola Whose fault was Company X's failure, and to whose credit is Company Y's success? :-)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @VindalooTitan @JasonKuznicki @jneeley78 Yes. Ironically anti-communists of the period were even more convinced USSR was ultra-strong.
    • @VindalooTitan @JasonKuznicki @jneeley78 http://t.co/MMJDFLoScC
    • @VindalooTitan @JasonKuznicki @jneeley78 http://t.co/MMJDFLoScC
    • "Failure to anticipate USSR collapse: 'anti-anti-communism'--tended to exaggerate regime's stability and legitimacy." http://t.co/MMJDFLoScC

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Much commentary re fall of Berlin Wall 25y ago implies it was obvious Soviet Union would fold. It was not. Considered inconceivable in 1986.
    • In fact, theories that perestroika + fall of Berlin Wall were very clever KGB plots vs West continued into early 90's.
    • "Virtually no Western expert, scholar, official, or politician foresaw the impending collapse of the Soviet Union." http://t.co/MMJDFLoScC
    • E.g. prominent Soviet defector Anatoliy Golitsyn wrote two books explaining fall of Berlin Wall & USSR as KGB plot: http://t.co/9cr0CADOri
    • @pmarca thought you might like this graphical prediction from Samuelson’s famous 1989 text: http://t.co/a8d8l81WAq http://t.co/803Cn4FITR — (RT @MaximHarper)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @danprimack @mims Maybe, but the test is, is the ad sales force selling just the subscriber audience or a broader audience?
    • @danprimack @mims Until the ad sales force no longer cares about or sells non-paying-sub readers, the damaging internal tension remains.
    • @danprimack @mims And even then the other tension remains: Guys like you two want your stuff more broadly read. Another cross incentive.
    • @danprimack @mims Risk to the business us that all of the best talent may leave to go to places where their output is not walled off.
    • @danprimack @mims This is one of Buzzfeed's real advantages. Wired to make lots of money on written content without a paywall.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mims If only goal is paying subs, then paywall can work as part of integrated strategy. But...
    • @mims Paywall is contrary to interests of advertising model and of creative talent at the firm, both if which want broad exposure.
    • @mims The problem is that leaving this tension unresolved leads to even bigger problems.
    • @mims Hence your frustration, and a general trend among older media businesses to get mad at the customer.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/@LAAF and I are very proud of the work Dr Colin Bucks of Stanford Hospital Emergency Dept just did in Liberia: http://t.co/iQETYlOzwj
    • 2/Dr Bucks is in quarantine in his home in Redwood City and is Ebola symptom free: http://t.co/OLtD9ecWBF
    • 3/"Between 26 and 32 patients died during his stint there, yet nearly as many survived because of the care provided at the 52-bed clinic."
    • 4/"Dr Bucks called the Liberian workers at the clinic 'my heroes' because of their determination in the face of daily threat of disease."

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @munilass This is the gold standard textbook: http://t.co/tV8UE4t9hl
    • @munilass For historical origins, maybe George Dyson's http://t.co/dC57JSNhv2
    • @munilass What the world really needs is a history of the last 30 years of AI research and it's successes and failures.
    • @munilass The field got mostly written off after the disappointments of 1980s until the rise of Google. So 15-20 missing years of writing.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @lhon Yes, up to a point :-).
    • @lhon Yes, up to a point :-).
    • @lhon We wouldn't all be good talking in iambic pentameter all the time either :-).
    • @pmarca @harrymccracken my proposed solution: http://t.co/DGzWxfwyWp — (RT @robertwrighter)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @DouglasCrets Ah! Yes, great question.
    • @DouglasCrets Arguably both home sharing and ride sharing benefitted from supply-side economic softness, at least to start.
    • @DouglasCrets And entertainment legendarily does well during recessions/depressions as people need diversion.
    • @DouglasCrets BUT I think 99% of businesses are better off in economic boom times because there's just so much more demand.
    • @DouglasCrets Or, put another way, 99% of arguments I've heard of "our company will do great in recession" have been total BS.
    • @joshua_ellinger @conorsen @pmarca education prob ~= results, 2x cost; so 12-14% realloc of child $ bought us doubling of workforce, equity — (RT @fredzannarbor)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/People and studies I referenced onstage at #WSJDLive today:
    • 2/Economist Carlota Perez & her book "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital" -- http://t.co/OeGrhmo6ez
    • 3/Economist Claudia Golden & her paper "A Grand Gender Convergence: Its Last Chapter" -- http://t.co/r1VczsPzHO
    • 4/Other people and studies I would have mentioned if I had more time:
    • 5/Economist Jared Bernstein and his piece "It’s Not a Skills Gap That’s Holding Wages Down" -- http://t.co/jQZRF4o96b
    • 6/OECD inspired by economist Angus Maddison: "Global Well-Being Since 1820" -- http://t.co/DnZoCEogSn
    • 7/Economist Julian Simon and his book "Ultimate Resource II" -- http://t.co/2p9lV9iw6T
    • 8/That last is underappreciated when considering the long-run growth consequences of wiring everyone on the planet into a single network.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jyarow @TheStalwart I think software eating world is putting some meaningful downward pressure on GDP and productivity metrics.
    • @jyarow @TheStalwart I think software eating world is putting some meaningful downward pressure on GDP and productivity metrics.
    • @jyarow @TheStalwart BUT I fully expect the saved money to be spent other places, fueling broad-based economic growth.
    • @jyarow @TheStalwart Combination of the two powers significant ongoing rise in standard of living.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest That part was new :-).
    • @dsquareddigest The new thing for all of this is a rapidly scaled global information network containing ~all users and providers.
    • @dsquareddigest Enabling two-sided liquidity, market clearing, and quality enforcement at a qualitatively different level of efficiency.
    • @dsquareddigest Which in turn makes it possible to substitute for ownership alternatives at a qualitatively different level of scale.
    • @dsquareddigest It's not Uber/Lyft vs taxis or informal ride shares at all. It's Uber/Lyft vs owning a car.
    • @dsquareddigest For a very large % of people who currently either own a car, or would have in the next 20 years in the counterfactual.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest @ChrisSpoke No it's not. Every vacation I ever took as a kid, we stayed in someone else's house.
    • @dsquareddigest Brian Chesky actually has a great story on this. Everyone in Silicon Valley told him the AirBNB idea was stupid. cont'd
    • @dsquareddigest Frustrated, he went home for the holidays. His grandfather asked him what he was doing. So Brian told him about it. cont'd
    • @dsquareddigest His grandfather said, oh, that makes total sense, that's how almost everyone traveled before WWII.
    • @dsquareddigest Similar, the idea for Lyft came straight from observing informal ride sharing by villagers in Zimbabwe (true story).

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @evanwieren Think about how much faster new app updates come out vs how often new phones come out vs how often new cars come out.
    • @evanwieren Guarantees that a mapping app on your phone will be light years ahead of any nav system in the next new car, as one example.
    • @evanwieren So the products with fast cycle times will tend to suck a lot of the value out of the products with slow cycle times.
    • @evanwieren The car becomes a peripheral to the phone, vs the other way around. Big balance of power shift results.
    • @pmarca actually had you partly in mind writing this. Why journalists should build software https://t.co/vc7vinWO34 — (RT @gavinsblog)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • What exactly happened to Tesco's financials? #iactuallydontgetit
    • Is there any reason to believe the US is manipulating the price of oil to put pressure on Russia or other countries? #iactuallydontgetit
    • Online harassment is obviously terrible -- but what does GamerGate have to do with actual video games or gamers? #iactuallydontgetit
    • How, and in what ways, is the current strain of Ebola different than/mutated from prior strains of Ebola? #iactuallydontgetit
    • Now that we know Kim Jong-Un is still in charge, what was the deal with sudden diplomatic mission to South Korea Oct 4? #iactuallydontgetit

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @JimPethokoukis Art art! Creating art. If she has an affinity for it.
    • @JimPethokoukis Art art! Creating art. If she has an affinity for it.
    • @JimPethokoukis There are so few people who can do both art and CS. Worth their weight in gold. Very hard though.
    • @JimPethokoukis Or more practically, art degree with CS classes or vice versa.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest Not per se, since traditional banks and credit card companies were so, ahem, generous for so long.
    • @dsquareddigest Not per se, since traditional banks and credit card companies were so, ahem, generous for so long.
    • @dsquareddigest Quite a bit more activity in high-credit-risk lenders, which all end up getting smeared as usurious, e.g. Wonga.
    • Read about the “remarkable stagnation” in credit to noncorporate businesses since the financial crisis http://t.co/7D5GItSKOs — (RT @stlouisfed)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @M_C_Klein @delong This is effectively how the original private investment banking partnerships used to work, of course.
    • @M_C_Klein @delong This is also effectively how venture capital partnerships work.
    • @M_C_Klein @delong This is also effectively how venture capital partnerships work.
    • President of New York Fed effectively calls for return to the days of private investment banking partnerships: http://t.co/ZwYtNHCZUd

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/After 6 years of service + completed decision to split, I've decided now is a good time to step off the eBay Board of Directors.
    • 2/It's been an absolute privilege to serve with John, Pierre, and team, and I could not be more proud of what we've accomplished.
    • 3/I wish eBay, and both of its successor companies, all the best in the years to come & will seek to continue to help as much as I can.
    • 4/Official announcement: http://t.co/R4wZJwazsu
    • These photographs show what life is like on $1 a day http://t.co/HXo7TGoGMB Photo: Renée C. Byer http://t.co/qH51iyjRKh — (RT @TIME)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Jessica Lessin @Jessicalessin writing about "Silicon Valley's Frontman Problem" aka "Peak Andreessen/Thiel/Musk": https://t.co/DTNBkpzS0j
    • 2/She says "Silicon Valley has the microphone. More people should step up and seize it." -- I wholeheartedly agree!
    • 3/In that spirit: Here are a bunch of tech people who aren't widely famous (yet) but who routinely say interesting and provocative things!
    • 4/Founders: @_sunilrawat--Sunil Rawat, Omniscience; @ahsanhilal--Ahsan Rizvi, Kiddomapp; @AlSaqqaf--Mohammed Al Saqqaf, Project Prepay
    • 5/@andrewtrabulsi--Andrew Trabulsi; @bilalfarooqui--Bilal Farooqui, CrystalMD; @chrisamccoy--Chris McCoy, YourSports
    • 6/@DanielleFong--Danielle Fong, Lightsail Energy; @davealevine--David Aron Levine, Artivest; @helengreiner--Helen Grenier, CyPhyWorks
    • 7/@JessicaMah--Jessica Mah, InDinero; @judegomila--Jude Gomila, Heyzap; @meredithperry--Meredith Perry, UBeam; @NaithanJones--Nait, AgLocal
    • 8/@omosanzalette--Louis Anslow, Newtru.st; @paulbaumgart--Paul Baumgart, WhatWeOrder; @ruzwana--Ruzwana Bashir, Peek
    • 9/@Sophia_Amoruso--Sophia Amoruso, NastyGal; @stanine--Matt MacInnis, Inkling; @starkness--Elizabeth Stark, StartX; @tikhon--Tikhon, Parse
    • 10/@tristanwalker--Tristan Walker, Bevel; @tzhongg--Tiffany Zhong, Glimpse; @zaid--Zaid Farooqui, CrystalMD
    • 11/VCs: @aileenlee--Aileen Lee, Cowboy; @AMLG23--Alice Lloyd George, RRE; @annimaniac--Ann Miura-Ko, Floodgate; @bznotes--Bilal Zuberi, Lux
    • 12/@jordancooper--Jordan Cooper, Lerer; @justGLew--Geoff Lewis, Founders Fund; @noUpside--Renee DiResta, OATV; @semil--Semil Shah, Haystack
    • 13/@sarahkunst--Sarah Kunst, VFA; @shaig--Shai Goldman, SVB; @stephpalmeri--Steph Palmeri, SoftTech; @ttunguz--Tomasz Tunguz, Redpoint
    • 14/Other roles! @AndreaKuszewski--Andrea Kuszewski; @Atif_Rz--Atif Raza; @beacongal--Monica Roman Gagnier; @calcsam--Sam Bhagwat
    • 15/@fmbutt--Farooq Butt; @fnxTX--JJ; @kyro--Kyro Beshay; @lhon--Lauren O'Neill; @minarad--Mina Radhakrishnan; @ramez--Ramez Naam
    • 16/@Pierre_Rochard--Pierre Rochard; @Rosepcountry; @SantiaSua--Santiago Suarez; @sriramk--Sriram Krishnan; @startuployalist--Bushra Farooqui
    • 17/@SuB8u--Subrahmanyam KVJ; @Susan_Athey--Susan Athey; @thedataroom--Michael Tsai; @thezhanly--Zhan Li; @tparekh--Tarak Parekh
    • 18/Longtime thought leaders: Andy Rachleff--@arachleff; Bill Davidow--@BillDavidow; Bill Janeway--@billjaneway; Nick Szabo--@NickSzabo4
    • 19/Most of these folks are not affiliated with me/A16Z -- what they have in common is, when they say things, I learn things!
    • 20/Of course this is only a highly abridged selection; for several hundred more, see my Industry list: https://t.co/nsEwqOFDlJ

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Best explanation of cable bundle I've heard: Bundle includes channels you WATCH & channels you MIGHT WATCH. Like stocks + options.
    • Best explanation of cable bundle I've heard: Bundle includes channels you WATCH & channels you MIGHT WATCH. Like stocks + options.
    • Without cable bundle, theory goes, you'd lose all the channels you MIGHT WATCH. End up with less choice for ~same monthly bill.
    • My partner @cdixon in 2012 on the argument for the cable bundle: http://t.co/ITv6R9V7Hn
    • But that doesn't take into account full spectrum of new online video choices/business models + full impact of new aggregators like Netflix.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @foadafshari Advantages to being closer: Access to talent (deeper pool), access to money (just easier), access to information flow.
    • @foadafshari Advantages to being closer: Access to talent (deeper pool), access to money (just easier), access to information flow.
    • @foadafshari Disadvantages to being closer: Employee retention significantly harder (more opportunities), possible groupthink environment.
    • Believe it or not - & bc @9JuanJuan is amazing - here's the latest marriage equality map: http://t.co/tDQrIIIYeX http://t.co/YHZxbQ4NkK — (RT @chrisgeidner)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @davealevine @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama Doesn't really work. Returns too low relative to risk and illiquidity.
    • @davealevine @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama In a major downdraft, growth equity investors get slaughtered. Timing matters.
    • @davealevine @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama 2-3x return target mezz funds need 2-3 year timeframe to raise the money.
    • @davealevine @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama (At least historically.)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama Arguably there is a gap in the startup financing market: the old Warburg Pincus model...
    • @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama ...one firm commits to fund the entirety of $ for the company, staged with gates and milestones.
    • @joeziemer @foadafshari @paulg @sama ...one firm commits to fund the entirety of $ for the company, staged with gates and milestones.
    • 1/2 @pmarca reminds me of our first "philosophy" lesson in communist romania: — (RT @optian)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @cdixon @semil Blogs are dead and now Twitter is dying? For God's sake, man, what's living???
    • @cdixon @semil Blogs are dead and now Twitter is dying? For God's sake, man, what's living???
    • @cdixon @semil Give me some hope! ANY HOPE!!
    • “By early 2009, Eventbrite had been turned down by practically every venture capital firm in Silicon Valley” http://t.co/lg642IUc86 — (RT @abrams)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ramez Another interesting book comes to mind! http://t.co/0zkhxUsr8N
    • @ramez A reinterpretation of James Bond as a cultural phenomenon -- big part was as a response to the deprivation of WWII.
    • @ramez A reinterpretation of James Bond as a cultural phenomenon -- big part was as a response to the deprivation of WWII.
    • @ramez He says that's why Bond was so obsessed with food, drink, clothes, cars, etc. -- UK WWII consumers were so deprived of everything.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ramez You'll love it. Thesis is the 1930s had an extraordinary technology-driven productivity boom obscured by the Great Depression.
    • @ramez He then shows that World War II was a step backwards, not forwards. The combo meant that 1945-1960 were primed to explode.
    • @ramez And then the kicker is that in the counterfactual of no WWII, US economy would have roared to life starting in ~1940 -- 5 lost years.
    • @ramez One big point he makes is that there were only about ~18 months of actual scaled industrial production of war materiel in the US.
    • @ramez The rest of the time was economically pointless retrofitting industrial co's into war production and then retrofitting back out.
    • @ramez OK, I'll stop now. It's a tour de force.
    • @ramez OK, one more :-). You'll be highly tempted to conclude that 2000-2010 had more in common with the 1930s than you thought.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @vpostrel @DavidBrin This is an interesting case playing out right now: http://t.co/2VIbmo4s5w
    • @vpostrel @DavidBrin “Monsanto?! The most evil company in the world?! I thought you were trying to make the world a BETTER place?”
    • @vpostrel @DavidBrin “Monsanto?! The most evil company in the world?! I thought you were trying to make the world a BETTER place?”
    • New blog post: transportation, Metcalfe's law, and the industrial revolution: http://t.co/fScDoaqA58 — (RT @NickSzabo4)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @johnolilly Or, the pricing is all still new, will drop as market size expands.
    • @johnolilly Or, cable bundle prices are otherwise rising 15%+ year over year, bundle would have grown into much higher pricing.
    • @johnolilly Or, the quality level of video entertainment is rising steadily, makes sense to pay more.
    • @pmarca from @TheOnion "Someone should do something about all the problems" http://t.co/LsLvKJcGwI — (RT @NishiDholakia)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/In 2007, Laura (@LAAF) and I committed a $27.5 million donation to Stanford Hospital's Emergency Department: http://t.co/AUEjQxHWI7
    • 2/Our donation was for both the current & a future new Stanford Emergency Department. Today I want to provide an update on the new ED!
    • 3/Stanford is building an entirely new hospital in the heart of Silicon Valley, which will start operation in 2018: http://t.co/3Q5fmMkbjf
    • 4/The overall project is 824,000 square feet, and will include our new ED, which will be twice the size of today's and fully cutting-edge.
    • 5/The hospital will cost $1.8 billion in total. Of that, $600 million in philanthropic donations has already been raised, of a $700M target.
    • 6/Philanthropic donors include both individuals like us + local companies: Adobe, Apple, Cisco, eBay, HP, Intel, Intuit, Nvidia, and Oracle.
    • 7/The new Stanford Hospital will be profoundly transformative for the Silicon Valley community, from complex cancer care to 3AM emergencies.
    • 8/And the new Stanford ED -> Even more powerful healthcare safety net for our lowest-income, homeless, and undocumented immigrant neighbors.
    • 9/Stanford Hospital CEO Amir Dan Rubin & colleagues are building future of healthcare in Silicon Valley & Laura + I are thrilled to support.
    • 11/If you'd like to join us in supporting the new Stanford Hospital, donations can be made online here :-): https://t.co/b4quZez9x9
    • 10/For more information: http://t.co/UMAkk9wZC7 http://t.co/jUqiBe4ROS http://t.co/jf8Ez3k3rk

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Perhaps the single biggest key enabler for the sharing/gig/1099 economy in the US: Affordable Care Act of 2010, aka Obamacare.
    • The sharing/gig/1099 economy materialized over the last 5 years in *response* to high unemployment -- the exact opposite of causing it.
    • The sharing/gig/1099 economy materialized over the last 5 years in *response* to high unemployment -- the exact opposite of causing it.
    • It's far from clear that the sharing economy companies could have launched and scaled in a full employment economy -- likely too expensive.

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @paulkaps Things changed fast.
    • @paulkaps Things changed fast.
    • @paulkaps My point.
    • @pmarca Remember the early 90's in SV well: post-disk drive carnage, few IPO's, double-digit US interest rates. Oh, and software was over. — (RT @jdrive)

    5 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @vpostrel @vgr Medium is in some ways a much more straightforward theory than Twitter was when it started.
    • @vpostrel @vgr Medium is in some ways a much more straightforward theory than Twitter was when it started.
    • @vpostrel @vgr I think Medium is Ev thinking that Blogger went nowhere under Google and it's time to do it right.
    • @pmarca More like Tesla is to Ferrari. Both pretty good - just different generations of tech. — (RT @othman)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @doobeedoo2 @lhon Wages are rising for the vast majority of people on the planet.
    • @doobeedoo2 @lhon Wages are rising for the vast majority of people on the planet.
    • @doobeedoo2 @lhon Meanwhile, here in the US, benefits are becoming a larger and larger portion of compensation, including now Obamacare.
    • Our partner @stevesi on how managers, particularly male managers, can foster a better work environment for women: http://t.co/CEA3YSwI1M

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @lhon @MParekh Ah! This is the really fascinating part. Satoshi designed the system to have speculation be the bootstrapping mechanism.
    • @lhon @MParekh Another common critique of Bitcoin is the speculation, which COMPLETELY misses this point.
    • @lhon @MParekh The speculation motivated the mining and giving the currency initial value to punch through the chicken and egg problem.
    • @lhon @MParekh In other words, the speculation is the distributed answer to what would otherwise have to be initial institutional support.
    • @lhon @MParekh The smartest computer scientists I know all think Satoshi deserves a Nobel Prize. Bitcoin is a work of intellectual genius.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @lhon @MParekh Think of it like a stock. There's a total market cap for the entire thing. And then an unlimited number of potential units.
    • @lhon @MParekh Like stock splits. You can split the stock as much as you want, the market cap stays unaffected.
    • @lhon @MParekh It has its pros and cons, but it's a genuinely new thing. A gold-like deflationary currency but with infinite # of units.
    • @lhon @MParekh The last step function change like this was John Law's paper currency 300 yrs ago. Also drove economists nuts then too.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Given extremely low price/earnings ratios for big public tech companies including GOOG and AAPL, only two outcomes are possible:
    • 2/One: Big tech is undervalued, in which case there's no tech bubble. You don't see multiples this low in any bubble.
    • 3/Other: Big tech is fairly valued, meaning all doomed within ~10 years, therefore their startup disruptors are undervalued, so no bubble.
    • .@pmarca's latest #tweetstorm... http://t.co/8hKcJwrBH2 — (RT @pngmarca)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/This morning my wife Laura (@LAAF) and I are tickled pink to announce three Andreessen-Arrillaga Inclusion Grants: http://t.co/aFHUpb8JvB
    • 2/These three Inclusion Grants total $500,000, and go to three stellar young nonprofit organizations working to grow inclusion in tech:
    • 3/Code2040 (@CODE2040) helps high-performing black and Latino engineering students begin amazing careers with top tech employers.
    • 4/Hack The Hood (@hackthehood) provides low-income youth of color with training and mentoring in computer and business skills.
    • 5/Girls Who Code (@GirlsWhoCode) catalyzes girls in junior/senior years of high school to gain computing skills, connect into tech industry.
    • 6/Laura and I couldn't be more excited to work with all three amazing groups to help them scale their programs over the next several years.
    • 7/We think there's huge opportunity to include more people, including/especially underrepresented groups, into tech field and tech industry.
    • 8/Finally, big thank you to Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering (http://t.co/5hFjpVH2Bd)--my 2013 prize money helped fund these grants.
    • 9/And, sign up now for @LAAF's Stanford philanthropy MOOC course starting this week--she taught me everything I know! http://t.co/s1MAMySMhq
    • .@pmarca's latest #tweetstorm... http://t.co/F4VQeHCQ96 — (RT @pngmarca)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/This morning my wife Laura (@LAAF) and I are tickled pink to announce three Andreessen-Arrillaga Inclusion Grants: http://t.co/aFHUpb8JvB
    • 2/These three Inclusion Grants total $500,000, and go to three stellar young nonprofit organizations working to grow inclusion in tech:
    • 3/Code2040 (@CODE2040) helps high-performing black and Latino engineering students begin amazing careers with top tech employers.
    • 4/Hack The Hood (@hackthehood) provides low-income youth of color with training and mentoring in computer and business skills.
    • 5/Girls Who Code (@GirlsWhoCode) catalyzes girls in junior/senior years of high school to gain computing skills, connect into tech industry.
    • 6/Laura and I couldn't be more excited to work with all three amazing groups to help them scale their programs over the next several years.
    • 7/We think there's huge opportunity to include more people, including/especially underrepresented groups, into tech field and tech industry.
    • 8/Finally, big thank you to Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering (http://t.co/5hFjpVH2Bd)--my 2013 prize money helped fund these grants.
    • 9/And, sign up now for @LAAF's Stanford philanthropy MOOC course starting this week--she taught me everything I know! http://t.co/s1MAMySMhq

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • “Microsoft is a nihilistic bet against tech innovation.” More @PeterThiel zingers:http://t.co/MjlxUaZOSH #pcw14 @... http://t.co/AGaV09DoGf — (RT @dfjsteve)
    • Thiel just said “sheeplike conformism” to describe US education system. Everybody drink. #pcw14 — (RT @samjsutton)
    • Peter Thiel slams Oracle, Microsoft, as bets against innovation. #pcw14 #buyouts. MSFT is a nihilistic bet that a another OS won't succeed. — (RT @SteveGelsi)
    • Peter Thiel: competition is for losers. The battle is so ferocious because the stakes are so small. #pcw14 #buyouts — (RT @SteveGelsi)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Bloomberg Markets was nice enough to publish an interview with me, mostly on finance and banking topics, this week: http://t.co/ZaQPIhqehY
    • 2/Since the interview is correct but abridged, and took place in early April and is just coming out now, I offer a few additional thoughts:
    • 3/Unbundling banks: I think banks are getting unbundled with or without Silicon Valley or Bitcoin--due to market changes + regulation.
    • 4/Any big bank executive will tell you: Over time, ratio between what non-banks can offer vs what banks can offer is steadily increasing.
    • 5/Post-crisis reforms like Dodd Frank are accelerating the unbundling, whether that's what regulators intended or not.
    • 6/But Dodd Frank is double-edged sword: Also makes it harder for new entrants to the core banking system. Banks both protected & restricted.
    • 7/Bitcoin and regulation: Since interview in early April to now, there's been substantial movement by many regulators on Bitcoin.
    • 8/Plenty of current discussions and disputes between market participants and regulators, but overall I think a lot of progress is happening.
    • 10/We are seeing a rapidly escalating level of engagement and interest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency by large financial services companies.
    • 11/The opportunity is clear and present for both big companies and startups to use new technology to improve financial services broadly.
    • 12/Finally (again :-): Since the interview, the other huge earthquake to hit financial services industry is the launch of Apple Pay.
    • 13/Between Apple Pay & Bitcoin, I predict more changes coming in financial services & banking in the next 3 years than in the last 20 years.
    • .@pmarca's latest #tweetstorm... http://t.co/3xU6utij3z — (RT @pngmarca)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Bloomberg Markets was nice enough to publish an interview with me, mostly on finance and banking topics, this week: http://t.co/ZaQPIhqehY
    • 2/Since the interview is correct but abridged, and took place in early April and is just coming out now, I offer a few additional thoughts:
    • 3/Unbundling banks: I think banks are getting unbundled with or without Silicon Valley or Bitcoin--due to market changes + regulation.
    • 4/Any big bank executive will tell you: Over time, ratio between what non-banks can offer vs what banks can offer is steadily increasing.
    • 5/Post-crisis reforms like Dodd Frank are accelerating the unbundling, whether that's what regulators intended or not.
    • 6/But Dodd Frank is double-edged sword: Also makes it harder for new entrants to the core banking system. Banks both protected & restricted.
    • 7/Bitcoin and regulation: Since interview in early April to now, there's been substantial movement by many regulators on Bitcoin.
    • 9/Finally, much like the Internet 20 years ago, Bitcoin as a technology can and will be adopted by both incumbents & new market entrants.
    • 8/Plenty of current discussions and disputes between market participants and regulators, but overall I think a lot of progress is happening.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mobiusbobs @brenpdx Yep, but on the other hand, whole categories of hardware keep getting swallowed into cheap or free software...
    • @mobiusbobs @brenpdx Yep, but on the other hand, whole categories of hardware keep getting swallowed into cheap or free software...
    • @mobiusbobs @brenpdx Compare e.g. high-fidelity telepresence vs travel. Former will drop to ~zero cost.
    • Fascinating. A 20-year-old intern invents a smart life saving wheelchair. Already talking of a platform! http://t.co/iDtjCTfCrH — (RT @SuB8u)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @MikeMcCorms @semil Often what happens is the opposite, other VC firms try to take down the next round early.
    • @MikeMcCorms @semil Often what happens is the opposite, other VC firms try to take down the next round early.
    • @MikeMcCorms @semil Also there are many reasons a VC firm may pass on a particular company or round unrelated to company quality...
    • @MikeMcCorms @semil ...and other VCs know that. AND most of the huge winners were passed on by lots of VC firms... signal may not work.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @fnxTX For extra fun, read John Gardner's Moriarty novels: http://t.co/PQQBoBvu9f
    • @fnxTX Turns out Moriarty is a misunderstood anti-hero and man of the people, and Sherlock is a confused buffoon :-).
    • @fnxTX Also for a far darker British take on mysteries and conspiracies, watch the British TV series "Utopia".
    • @fnxTX (Utopia features both nerds and a spectacular female lead.) (Also, best watched late at night with all lights out.)
    • Fascinating @NYTimeskrugman on liquidity traps and Bill Gross: http://t.co/s7pxhfQWgJ http://t.co/lC4Gtk93Tm

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @borker @johnrobinson You say that like there's something wrong with it :-).
    • @borker @johnrobinson Two reasons, one individual level and one societal level.
    • @borker @johnrobinson Individual level: Stands to reason much greater range of people you can meet online vs who happens to be around you.
    • @borker @johnrobinson Societal level: As counterweight to natural geographic affiliation --> tribalism, us vs them, defining of "other".

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @delong Two kinds of practical answers to that question: On what computer language/platform, and for what kind of application.
    • @delong On the first, on something modern and easy to pick up from scratch -- the principles all tend to be the same.
    • @delong Second I think is quite important. Something fun and interesting. Games are a good start, or art, music, sports related.
    • @delong They can learn how to build databases and accounting apps later when they're old and boring :-).
    • "Tesla is a Silicon Valley company. If we are not the leader, then shame on us." -- @elonmusk https://t.co/u5GJyzzEPT via @pmarca — (RT @aparanjape)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones The problem is that reality is exactly the opposite of what you describe.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones In the old days, local bookstores were few and far between. Nearest bookstore to my hometown was 60 miles away.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones Amazon has expanded access to bookstore to more people in 20 years than book industry in preceding 500 years.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones In the process, through scale and through pioneering digital distribution, Amazon has driven book prices down.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones Which is great for consumers. Consumer far better off post-Amazon than pre-Amazon.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones On selection/assortment, Amazon has far larger selection than any physical bookstore in history. By huge margin.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones On top of all THAT, Amazon is radically expanding # of books published via its self-publishing platform.
    • @whoisstan @NaithanJones No book industry incumbent did that. Again, had 500 years, didn't do it. Amazon did it in less than 10 years.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • What happens tomorrow? @TheAPJournalist: I just stumbled onto this photo. It speaks for itself. #OccupyCentral http://t.co/VdkReWxVFi — (RT @panphil)
    • #hk926 MT @wilfredchan: 2000 people in Mong Kok intersection by my estimate Uneasy calm. Protesters growing louder. http://t.co/lvEuW1cG6i — (RT @IlariaMariaSala)
    • Citizens sit-in to occupied Causeway Bay and Mong Kok & Wan Chai besides #OccupyCentral #hk926 http://t.co/HpyQk08ek7 — (RT @PlasticNews_wf)
    • Photos from the ongoing protests in Hong Kong (Via @LeoAW/@harbourtimes/@kjalee) #OccupyCentral #hk926 http://t.co/fvDQVrrLDR — (RT @TheAPJournalist)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Quite a turnout in Mong Kok, the real heart of Hong Kong. Peaceful but vigilant. #OccupyCentral http://t.co/K7iTQdxErt — (RT @eldestran)
    • Quite a turnout in Mong Kok, the real heart of Hong Kong. Peaceful but vigilant. #OccupyCentral http://t.co/K7iTQdxErt — (RT @eldestran)
    • Scenes that remind us all of Gezi from Hong Kong. #OccupyCentral #OccupyHongKong http://t.co/6e7zAPjGZi — (RT @OccupiedTaksim)
    • Tens of thousands of young protestors are demonstrating in Hong Kong #OccupyCentral http://t.co/89Scex8lxd (Getty) http://t.co/PKQ3ayepQv — (RT @glanzpiece)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ClaraJeffery Fascinating divergence between economics of film industry & serialized television. Dumb one got smart, smart one got dumb.
    • @ClaraJeffery Film, to your point, went international. Whereas television went to digital distribution: DVD, then iTunes, now streaming.
    • @ClaraJeffery Other fascinating part is role of writers.
    • @ClaraJeffery In film, writers get steadily less important as script matters less relative to brand name content/actors + special effects.
    • @ClaraJeffery But in television, writers got way more important over last 20 years; now writers actually run the shows.
    • @ClaraJeffery They had to turn TV over to the writers; only the writers can deliver 13-22 hours/year of filmed content year in, year out.
    • @ClaraJeffery Direct analogy between rise of writer/showrunner in television and founder/CEO in tech startups.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Hong Kong students week-long boycott of school in protest for true democracy & universal suffrage. #OccupyCentral #HK http://t.co/sX1kdwdQhN — (RT @PRHacks)
    • THIS IS @OCLPHK #HKStudentStrike #HKClassBoycott @hu_jia #HK @NewsRevo http://t.co/X7Y94VlZcf — (RT @JigmeUgen)
    • A man holds a sign reading "I want freedom" amid a seated crowd of HK protesters. (Via @TravelFoto) #HKStudentStrike http://t.co/uJFHlABpgj — (RT @TheAPJournalist)
    • Umbrellas vs riot shields: face off outside #HK gov HQ in ongoing democracy protests. #HKStudentStrike http://t.co/Fj05cgIhvW — (RT @aartam)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @erikbryn There was this guy Adam Smith who kept going on about "gains from trade"... :-)
    • @erikbryn And re income inequality, important to note that these systems involve the customer giving the worker money! :-)
    • Hong Kong, summer 2014. Protesters brace for standoff with the police. #NotKiev http://t.co/1fQ9Xldjk2 — (RT @byAlanWong)
    • Hong Kong, summer 2014. Protesters brace for standoff with the police. #NotKiev http://t.co/1fQ9Xldjk2 — (RT @byAlanWong)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/One response to https://t.co/MIUJtDFAVz: "Why isn't this just hypocritical VCs overfunding reckless founders of out-of-control startups?"
    • 2/In fairness, there is probably some of that, though we & the investors we respect try hard not to indulge recklessness & irresponsibility.
    • 3/But while it's irresponsible to vaporize cash & your company, it can also be irresponsible to NOT invest to become #1 in a big new market.
    • 4/Particularly now, since there are SO many more people on the Internet & SO many more businesses that can consume cloud/SAAS vs 15 yrs ago.
    • 5/Tension: Overinvest, escalate burn, risk down round, vaporize when market turns; OR Underinvest, starve growth, don't win market, implode.
    • 6/Why is this so important? In tech-driven markets, overwhelming economic returns tend to go to the company with the highest market share.
    • 7/And, the winning company with the highest market share can invest the most in R&D, build the best and most advanced products. The prize.
    • 9/The challenge for CEOs and boards of tech startups is to thread the needle, just enough investment to take the #1 position, but not more.
    • 10/Meeting this challenge has resulted in thousands of venture-capital-backed companies creating millions of jobs over last 50 years.
    • 11/This challenge becomes far harder when money is flowing freely, since more competitors get funded. Very tricky. Requires deep judgment.
    • 12/BUT opting out of the race generally guarantees you won't be #1 or even #2. Not a good idea either. Just as serious a risk as blowing up.
    • 13/No single answer. Up to VCs, CEOs, boards, and later-round investors to think very carefully about this for each specific circumstance.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/One response to https://t.co/MIUJtDFAVz: "Why isn't this just hypocritical VCs overfunding reckless founders of out-of-control startups?"
    • 2/In fairness, there is probably some of that, though we & the investors we respect try hard not to indulge recklessness & irresponsibility.
    • 3/But while it's irresponsible to vaporize cash & your company, it can also be irresponsible to NOT invest to become #1 in a big new market.
    • 4/Particularly now, since there are SO many more people on the Internet & SO many more businesses that can consume cloud/SAAS vs 15 yrs ago.
    • 5/Tension: Overinvest, escalate burn, risk down round, vaporize when market turns; OR Underinvest, starve growth, don't win market, implode.
    • 6/Why is this so important? In tech-driven markets, overwhelming economic returns tend to go to the company with the highest market share.
    • 8/Via Glengarry Glen Ross: Reward for market position #1 is 90% of the economic value. #2, a set of steak knives. #3, you're fired.
    • 7/And, the winning company with the highest market share can invest the most in R&D, build the best and most advanced products. The prize.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @bebrown2 @eringriffith The general argument: True bubbles/crashes traumatize an entire generation of investors.
    • @bebrown2 @eringriffith So you don't get another bubble in the asset class until the investors who went through it last time are gone.
    • @bebrown2 @eringriffith Consistent with that: Many people who went through 98-02 have been screaming "new bubble" since 2005: 10 years now.
    • @bebrown2 @eringriffith It's rare historically to see back to back bubbles in the same asset class in the same generation for that reason.
    • @bebrown2 @eringriffith When was the last housing bubble before 2005?

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @RichardWaters It's about cash burn and cash need in future. All other things equal, the more you burn, the more you need.
    • @RichardWaters So high cash burn = need to raise more $ often across more rounds, and each round needs to be an up round.
    • @RichardWaters Therefore risk of down round escalates as function of cash burn and number of rounds.
    • @RichardWaters This risk amplified by new arrivals to growth investing scene offering higher valuations than others, but with unclean terms.
    • @RichardWaters CEOs too willing to take higher valuation bid even when it comes with ratchet and other highly dangerous downside terms.
    • @RichardWaters Which further increases risk of a down round.
    • @RichardWaters Does that make sense? Valuation is involved but cash burn is the actual issue.
    • @RichardWaters Which is to say, with lower or no cash burn, valuations wouldn't be nearly as much a concern for this set of companies.
    • @zakimahomed @pmarca the best employees are those who sign up when it's still a struggle; when they're willing for that, they handle storms — (RT @LisaAbeyta)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest Yep, that's the hope. Even still, there is a lot of capital to be put to work.
    • @dsquareddigest Many places and sectors in the world right now are quite hostile to scaled capital investment programs as well.
    • @dsquareddigest Many countries are highly risky due to expropriation risk, escalating geopolitical tensions, protectionism, etc.
    • @dsquareddigest And in developed world, certain sectors that could use lots of capital are now regulated in ways to sharply discourage it.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest In general I think world is awash with excess capital relative to productive investment opportunities, both before+after QE.
    • @dsquareddigest I think that situation has to persist for a long time since it's not that easy to create new productive investment opp'ys.
    • @dsquareddigest I think that situation has to persist for a long time since it's not that easy to create new productive investment opp'ys.
    • @dsquareddigest Particularly ones that can actually usefully consume large amounts of capital, large scale projects.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @danprimack @pkafka Yep. Prices simply too high. Too much crossover $ from public markets with bigger funds & lower return targets.
    • @danprimack @pkafka The latest version of this is PE & hedge fund investors who will hit any valuation # but demand structural terms.
    • @danprimack @pkafka Those are often worse deals than vanilla terms at a lower headline valuation, but founders hyper-focused on valuation.
    • @danprimack @pkafka We generally just decline to participate since we don't like the consequences of the structural terms for the companies.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Cash burn rates at startups: Recently @bgurley and @fredwilson have sounded a vivid alarm -- http://t.co/xT4cr4mk5G http://t.co/2BfoS9t3AW
    • 2/I said at the time that I agree with much of what Bill says (https://t.co/Yizp0Zr64F), and I want to expand on the topic further:
    • 3/New founders in last 10 years have ONLY been in environment where money is always easy to raise at higher valuations. THAT WILL NOT LAST.
    • 4/When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming without trunks on: many high burn rate co's will VAPORIZE.
    • 5/High cash burn rates are dangerous in several ways beyond the obvious increased risk of running out of cash. Important to understand why:
    • 6/First: High burn rate kills your ability to adapt as you learn & as market changes. Co becomes unwieldy, too big to easily change course.
    • 7/Second: Hiring people is easy; layoffs are devastating. Hiring for startups is effectively one way street. Again, can't change once stuck.
    • 8/Third: Your managers get trained and incented ONLY to hire, as answer to every question. Company bloats & becomes badly run at same time.
    • 9/Fourth: Lots of people, big shiny office, high expense base = Fake "we've made it!" feeling. Removes pressure to deliver real results.
    • 10/Fifth: More people multiplies communication overhead exponentially, slows everything down. Company bogs down, becomes bad place to work.
    • 11/Sixth: Raising new money becomes harder & harder. You have bigger bulldog to feed, need more and more $ at higher and higher valuations.
    • 12/Therefore you take on escalating risk of a catastrophic down round. High-cash-burn startups almost never survive down rounds. VAPORIZE.
    • 13/Further, to get into this position, you probably had to raise too much $ at too high valuation before; escalates down round risk further.
    • 14/Seventh: Even if you CAN raise an up round, you are increasingly likely to incur terrible structural terms like ratchets to chin the bar.
    • 16/Eighth: When market turns, M&A mostly stops. Nobody will want to buy your cash-incinerating startup. There will be no Plan B. VAPORIZE.
    • 17/Finally, there are exceptions to all this. But if you're reading this, you're almost certainly not one. They are few and far between.
    • 18/Worry.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Cash burn rates at startups: Recently @bgurley and @fredwilson have sounded a vivid alarm -- http://t.co/xT4cr4mk5G http://t.co/2BfoS9t3AW
    • 2/I said at the time that I agree with much of what Bill says (https://t.co/Yizp0Zr64F), and I want to expand on the topic further:
    • 3/New founders in last 10 years have ONLY been in environment where money is always easy to raise at higher valuations. THAT WILL NOT LAST.
    • 4/When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming without trunks on: many high burn rate co's will VAPORIZE.
    • 5/High cash burn rates are dangerous in several ways beyond the obvious increased risk of running out of cash. Important to understand why:
    • 6/First: High burn rate kills your ability to adapt as you learn & as market changes. Co becomes unwieldy, too big to easily change course.
    • 7/Second: Hiring people is easy; layoffs are devastating. Hiring for startups is effectively one way street. Again, can't change once stuck.
    • 8/Third: Your managers get trained and incented ONLY to hire, as answer to every question. Company bloats & becomes badly run at same time.
    • 9/Fourth: Lots of people, big shiny office, high expense base = Fake "we've made it!" feeling. Removes pressure to deliver real results.
    • 10/Fifth: More people multiplies communication overhead exponentially, slows everything down. Company bogs down, becomes bad place to work.
    • 11/Sixth: Raising new money becomes harder & harder. You have bigger bulldog to feed, need more and more $ at higher and higher valuations.
    • 12/Therefore you take on escalating risk of a catastrophic down round. High-cash-burn startups almost never survive down rounds. VAPORIZE.
    • 13/Further, to get into this position, you probably had to raise too much $ at too high valuation before; escalates down round risk further.
    • 15/That nice hedge fund investor willing to hit your valuation bar? Imagine him owning 80% of co after down round. How nice will he be then?
    • 14/Seventh: Even if you CAN raise an up round, you are increasingly likely to incur terrible structural terms like ratchets to chin the bar.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @doobeedoo2 I do think much of the world is too devoted to long-term-destructive mercantilism and protectionism.
    • @doobeedoo2 And then much of the rest of the world is devoted to natural resources extraction by the elite.
    • @doobeedoo2 And then much of the rest of the world is devoted to natural resources extraction by the elite.
    • @doobeedoo2 But I am encouraged that more and more people all over the world are now demanding more from their leaders.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @zaid @MaxWendkos Yes. In a couple different ways.
    • @zaid @MaxWendkos Yes. In a couple different ways.
    • @zaid @MaxWendkos (1) Big new offices --> mentality of "we've arrived", "we are succeeding" even before that's actually true.
    • @zaid @MaxWendkos (2) Big new offices naturally "feel" empty -- not enough people to fill space -- feels good to fill it up.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @doobeedoo2 How do we know that QE is having any real effect on asset prices vs the counterfactual scenario of no QE?
    • @doobeedoo2 i.e. How do we know that interest rates, inflation, et al wouldn't be much the same without QE?
    • @doobeedoo2 Consider how *many* market participants have been convinced QE would lead to inflation and have been wrong wrong wrong.
    • @doobeedoo2 Maybe the world is the way it is--low interest rates, low inflation, tons of liquid capital, insufficient growth--& QE=sideshow.
    • @doobeedoo2 In which case, asset prices are probably priced properly, for the most part.
    • Founder of @iRobot, brilliant @helengreiner announces disruptive drone product from her new co., @cyphyworksinc https://t.co/jWu48M9Yll — (RT @mattocko)

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @conorsen Here's what's gone right in the last 10 years --
    • @conorsen Massive price deflation of key inputs dropped cost of creating software/web/mobile product by 10x (all in).
    • @conorsen But market size growth of ~50x as world got broadband and one smartphones. So much more expensive to scale to bigger market.
    • @conorsen But correspondingly payoff to building winner in larger market much bigger. So worth it when it works.
    • @conorsen And input price deflation makes services viable today that wouldn't have been viable in 99 - eg Google Facebook YouTube.
    • @conorsen So all good BUT -- as Bill Gurley points out, risk discipline on growth financing rounds is slipping.
    • @conorsen So you're now seeing more startups that haven't proven their model works get loaded up with tons of capital.

    6 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @abrams @msuster VSP was key man (internal personnel issues); Accel was performance.
    • @abrams @msuster There are a bunch of mid-range firms that have been forced to raise significantly smaller funds in last 5 years as well.
    • @abrams @msuster Raising a significantly smaller fund = a bunch of your LPs fired you, in most cases.
    • @abrams @msuster And in VC overall, the attrition rate of firms not raising new funds or just shutting down has been high for 10 years.
    • @abrams @msuster In general, if you aren't either a top-10 megafirm or an up-and-coming boutique, the pressure is on.
    • @abrams @msuster And the top-10 megafirms and up-and-coming boutiques are under a lot of year-to-year scrutiny as well.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Celt_Englishman @balajis It's not ownership per se, it's the concept of a monetizable open protocol. Brand new with Bitcoin.
    • @Celt_Englishman @balajis If we could start Internet over again, could do same things with DNS, SMTP, HTTP. Anything with a namespace.
    • @Celt_Englishman @balajis If we could start Internet over again, could do same things with DNS, SMTP, HTTP. Anything with a namespace.
    • Machine vision only 1.7% worse v. humans in object recognition in latest competition. Cross-over for sure this decade http://t.co/EnejPDPIhJ — (RT @polemitis)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @rightwayisleft Just that, I think.
    • @rightwayisleft More than that seems really dangerous, including for the long-term credibility of the Fed.
    • @rightwayisleft More than that seems really dangerous, including for the long-term credibility of the Fed.
    • @pmarca i don't actually believe this but i really couldn't help myself :) http://t.co/N0JkBX7IN8 — (RT @kirangollakota)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dylan20 Not where I grew up.
    • @dylan20 Not where I grew up.
    • @dylan20 (Rural Wisconsin.) Fishing trips, chartered and otherwise, are a major recreational pursuit.
    • Newsflash :-): A very large # of hard-working people in middle America love fishing, go on fishing trips, chartered & otherwise.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @bengraham I don't think so. Subdivision doesn't affect the market cap of the entire ledger (totality of outstanding BTC).
    • @bengraham Subdivision does solve the "babysitting co-op" liquidity trap problem though. http://t.co/ianZiWLPYV
    • @bengraham Need a qualified economist to really dig into this. First currency that's both deflationary and "inflationary" (subdivision).
    • @bengraham It would be as if gold were easily subdivided down to the atomic level, and the atomic units easily traded. A new thing.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @petersims A company does a buyback by giving cash to some of its current shareholders in return for the stock they have been holding.
    • @petersims Those (former) shareholders then take that cash and invest it elsewhere.
    • @petersims So the question is not what happens at the company that did the buyback, but rather where is that cash invested next.
    • @petersims The conventional economic view is that this is market-based capital allocation working properly.
    • @petersims Capital has been freed up from a company that can't productively use it, and can now be invested in a different company that can.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @patrickc Yep, I agree.
    • @patrickc Take old company X and new company Y. Y often has exact same engineers, executives, processes, culture, even buildings as X.
    • @patrickc Often the only real differences between X and Y are two: (1) Top leadership and (2) The idea.
    • @patrickc Why then is turning X into Y so hard so often, as opposed to starting and scaling Y from scratch?

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @psygnisfive Old school: Move to Silicon Valley if not here; Work for 4 years for top SV software company; Conferences; Nonprofit volunteer.
    • @psygnisfive New school: Twitter, Facebook, Quora, blogging, Hacker News, Github, hackathons.
    • @psygnisfive Ultimate shortcut: Apply to & go through Y Combinator.
    • To paraphrase Marc Andreessen, mobile is eating the consumer electronics industry. http://t.co/2CN0gxncAF @pmarca http://t.co/txY1uGbuuv — (RT @Hugh_W_Forrest)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Next generation movie theaters could be so much better, charge a premium & dominate financially (like http://t.co/SnJsIk8528)...
    • 2/Convenience: Reserved seating, valet parking, warm embrace of Lyft & Uber including ride-pooling, on-site daycare.
    • 3/Experience: No commercials before movie; super-comfortable chairs & sofas; food delivery directly to seats; sparkling clean bathrooms.
    • 4/Food & drink: High-quality food with healthy options; sit-down dining on site; full bars (Lyft & Uber make more practical & safe now).
    • 5/Variety of screening experiences: Silent, or noisy, or use of phones allowed, or families + kids, or all kids, or dining + movie together.
    • 6/Use of crowdsourcing & crowdfunding for special screenings; full embrace of group & corporate events; all-you-can-view subscriptions...
    • @pmarca kabuki (SF) is by far the best experience I've had in a movie theatre. — (RT @kevingibbon)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @semil Relates to a fundamental truism: Convincing a VC to invest in Series A is easier, not harder, than convincing engineer #10 to join.
    • @semil Raising venture capital is relatively easy compared to almost everything else a founder has to do to make a startup succeed.
    • @semil So, generally speaking, founders who have trouble raising VC are likely to have worse trouble recruiting, selling, running the co.
    • @semil It's a little like when a candidate for President or Governor can't run a well-executed campaign--why would they govern any better?

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @butrelevant People like sports!
    • @butrelevant Playing sports and watching sports.
    • @butrelevant Playing sports and watching sports.
    • @pmarca your tweets are the new metrics. Mentioned here: https://t.co/lobrBJwxi9 — (RT @arieljalali)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/In tech, we talk about difference between technical-founder/CEO (product/eng background) vs professional CEO (sales/marketing background).
    • 2/Our general theory is: Easier to teach product innovator how to manage, than it is to teach sales/marketing operator how to innovate.
    • 3/There are many exceptions in both directions, of course. Mountain is hard to climb either way. Lots of work/learning/adaptation required.
    • 4/I propose another lens on dynamic: Difference between knowing What & Who, vs knowing How, Where, & When. Bear with me...
    • 5/Great tech founder/CEOs tend to focus on What & Who: What product to build, and Who to hire/train/retain/motivate to build it.
    • 6/Great pro CEOs tend to focus on How, Where, & When: How = processes; Where = geographic expansion; When = optimizing business across time.
    • 7/To succeed at scale, each needs to learn the other skills & hire people who have them: Founder/CEO -> How/Where/When; Pro CEO -> What/Who.
    • 8/The challenge: Usually easier to hire skilled business professionals who know How/Where/When than What/Who. Fishing from unbalanced pool.
    • 9/The trap: Only nailing What/Who can carry startup a long way, but only nailing How/Where/When = slow road to zombieland and company death.
    • 10/Ultimately = team-building for both paths. But dynamic different & differently challenging in each direction; requires open discussion.
    • 11/Addendum: The Why = the mission. Ideally beyond just "the company's success". Increasingly important for all paths.
    • 12/Addendum: The truly great tech CEOs have mastered all of these: What, Who, How, Where, & When... and Why.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Jessicalessin I don't think that's how they end up. I think they end up as great high-margin businesses with huge liquidity & low fees.
    • @Jessicalessin Liquidity in two-sided marketplaces is its own reward. You'd rather have higher liquidity than higher fees.
    • @Jessicalessin Specifically you don't want to raise fees past the point where it would impair liquidity, drive participants to alternatives.
    • @Jessicalessin These businesses are run differently than normal businesses. It's optimization of liquidity, not straight supply/demand.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Jessicalessin The factor I think you are underestimating is what happens with high-scale liquidity in these marketplaces.
    • @Jessicalessin The factor I think you are underestimating is what happens with high-scale liquidity in these marketplaces.
    • @Jessicalessin With high-scale liquidity, marketplaces can be high margin with low fees and markets clearing at correct prices.
    • @Jessicalessin Marketplace businesses are different in that way from normal businesses with simple supply and demand.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Stopped by the #Ferguson Library again today, where teachers are volunteering to teach students http://t.co/ZbaT9hH6iV — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Jameila White, who gave out water in #Ferguson yesterday, ended up getting maced. Her story: http://t.co/zenavmSrXl http://t.co/IlgvhcBzd1 — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Here's a Vine I shot last night of Jameila after she was maced https://t.co/gKig6z7atq #Ferguson — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Interviewed this 16-year-old volunteer who was watching kids at the #Ferguson library today http://t.co/q4EsOQ797T — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • 1/Before twitter, I would have heard far less about both Mike Brown and #Ferguson protests. And it would have been more biased towards cops — (RT @ramez)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Stopped by the #Ferguson Library again today, where teachers are volunteering to teach students http://t.co/ZbaT9hH6iV — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Jameila White, who gave out water in #Ferguson yesterday, ended up getting maced. Her story: http://t.co/zenavmSrXl http://t.co/IlgvhcBzd1 — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Here's a Vine I shot last night of Jameila after she was maced https://t.co/gKig6z7atq #Ferguson — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • Interviewed this 16-year-old volunteer who was watching kids at the #Ferguson library today http://t.co/q4EsOQ797T — (RT @ryanjreilly)
    • 1/Before twitter, I would have heard far less about both Mike Brown and #Ferguson protests. And it would have been more biased towards cops — (RT @ramez)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A thing I believe that few believe: Almost all Silicon Valley startup ideas from qualified founders = great ideas. But some are too early.
    • 2/Track startups over multiple decades, what you find is that most ideas do end up working. It's much more a question of "when" not "if".
    • 3/This is interesting for several reasons. First, it means that criticism of the form "that will never happen" is usually misguided & wrong.
    • 4/Second, it means that a much bigger risk for founders is "too early", vs "wrong" or "too late". Often doesn't match feedback from others.
    • 5/To quote Peter Thiel, it is often better to be the last company to market (hit timing right & take down the entire market) vs the first.
    • 6/Third, when you have the timing right, you almost always feel like you're too late. Terrified you've missed the window = great sign.
    • 7/When idea X has been in the air, with repeated attempts to build X, yet most customers are not yet doing/using X, it's never too late.
    • 8/Fourth, founders by definition live in the future, see a world that doesn't yet exist & try to make it so. Nailing timing = hardest thing.
    • 9/Which is often why more pragmatic founders end up building the big & important companies -- the idealists were just too early.
    • 10/Fifth, therefore, most of the great ideas for the next two decades are already known. In labs, in failed startups, in big co prototypes.
    • 11/Those ideas are being dismissed now since the early attempts have't worked. This has the opposite predictive value vs what people think.
    • 12/Quoting @GreatDismal, the future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed -- or it's not yet distributed at all. But it is here.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A thing I believe that few believe: Almost all Silicon Valley startup ideas from qualified founders = great ideas. But some are too early.
    • 2/Track startups over multiple decades, what you find is that most ideas do end up working. It's much more a question of "when" not "if".
    • 3/This is interesting for several reasons. First, it means that criticism of the form "that will never happen" is usually misguided & wrong.
    • 4/Second, it means that a much bigger risk for founders is "too early", vs "wrong" or "too late". Often doesn't match feedback from others.
    • 5/To quote Peter Thiel, it is often better to be the last company to market (hit timing right & take down the entire market) vs the first.
    • 6/Third, when you have the timing right, you almost always feel like you're too late. Terrified you've missed the window = great sign.
    • 7/When idea X has been in the air, with repeated attempts to build X, yet most customers are not yet doing/using X, it's never too late.
    • 8/Fourth, founders by definition live in the future, see a world that doesn't yet exist & try to make it so. Nailing timing = hardest thing.
    • 9/Which is often why more pragmatic founders end up building the big & important companies -- the idealists were just too early.
    • 10/Fifth, therefore, most of the great ideas for the next two decades are already known. In labs, in failed startups, in big co prototypes.
    • 11/Those ideas are being dismissed now since the early attempts have't worked. This has the opposite predictive value vs what people think.
    • 12/Quoting @GreatDismal, the future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed -- or it's not yet distributed at all. But it is here.
    • 13/The key question is: What ideas are widely dismissed today due to having been tried & failed? Answer is the codex to the next 20 years.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @DanielleFong @lorakolodny I honestly don't think that's what's happening (the competition for $). Med & cleantech are just out of fashion.
    • @DanielleFong @lorakolodny The reason I say that: There are huge sums of $ that want to come into venture, beyond what's already here.
    • @DanielleFong @lorakolodny It's a matching problem (LPs -> venture firms -> medical & energy startups) more than a $ supply problem.
    • "We're gonna start with you guys first." -- officer to reporter on arrests #Ferguson — (RT @ryanjreilly)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @lorakolodny Tons :-). eBay = How many Beanie Babies and Pez dispensers can people possibly trade?
    • @lorakolodny Paypal = Beaming money back and forth between Palm Pilots -- that company is doomed!
    • @lorakolodny Google = Don't they know there are already 35 other search engines and that it's impossible to make money with search?
    • @lorakolodny Facebook = A college social network? Don't they realize their entire user base will churn every 4 years?
    • @lorakolodny Cars = Toys for rich people who can afford to employ full-time mechanics; will never catch on broadly.
    • @lorakolodny Federal Express = Can't possibly guarantee overnight delivery, and even if you could, the cost structure will kill it.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @kevinroose Sure, I think there are a whole bunch.
    • @kevinroose Too geographically concentrated, too hard to run truly distributed teams and companies.
    • @kevinroose Which means too hard for smart people all over world to participate, as well as too expensive to live here for many.
    • @kevinroose Too hard to break into the networks if you're not already in them; therefore too hard to get access/be included.
    • @kevinroose Too hard to get the skills to participate and contribute if you can't get to to a top research university to get trained.
    • @kevinroose Shortage of talent vs scope of opportunity then leads to excessively high turnover = too hard to build companies to last.
    • @kevinroose Too geared to broader macroeconomic cycle; too easy for promising companies to get stranded in economic downturns.
    • @kevinroose Probably another half dozen but I'll stop there.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/I really don't get people who go out of their way to crap on the hard work and efforts of founders and startup teams.
    • 2/The simple form of such crapping is pure sour grapes. The advanced version is "Silicon Valley is not trying to solve big problems".
    • 3/In honor of today's outstanding YC demo day, I'll reprise some thoughts from my July 7 tweetstorm on this cynical and pointless canard.
    • 4/There are six logical problems with the false choice of "make trivial apps for 20-something SF hipsters" vs "do things that matter".
    • 5/First, "make trivial apps" vs "do things that matter" are not actually in conflict-there's plenty of room and plenty of money to do both.
    • 6/Second, it's often hard to tell which is which up front. Almost all big world-changers were dismissed by critics as trivial at first.
    • 7/Third, observer bias: Only read consumer tech blogs, only go to consumer tech conferences, think SV only works on consumer tech.
    • 8/Fourth, battling cynical critiques: Founders who articulate the big vision for changing the world get called arrogant and vainglorious.
    • 9/Both criticisms leveled with no cognitive dissonance: Founders either not pursuing big ideas, or out of control egomaniacs if they are.
    • 10/Fifth, subtext often that communication tech/apps in particular somehow aren't important or don't matter, vs energy, education, etc.
    • 11/Why? Communication is the foundation of collaborative work, which is how all the important problems gets solved. People working together.
    • 11/Sixth: Anyone who thinks SV can be doing more/better/different, come join us and participate in building new things, products, companies.
    • 12/The central truth of Silicon Valley is that there's always more to do, and there are always new opportunities to build & contribute.
    • 13/I couldn't be more proud of today's YC amazing demo day crop, spanning more problem domains than ever. Silicon Valley spirit is thriving.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims Everyone's trying. It's arguably a case of George Soros's reflexivity theory.
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims And no question the most participants are the most wrong at both the top and the bottom.
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims And no question the most participants are the most wrong at both the top and the bottom.
    • Google had ~3,000 employees when it went public 10 years ago. It's now approaching 50,000: http://t.co/h8QJsVMBgR http://t.co/cbpRiYMJWs — (RT @fromedome)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims Depends :-). Harsher the market gets, the more they count, for sure.
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims Some of these super-high-growth companies could also flip switch to go highly profitable if they needed to.
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims Also, always ask about both overall margins as well as per-customer margins. Both matter...
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims Many high-growth companies are negative margin overall but positive margin per customer...
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims ...and then at some point they flip to become overall high margin, often very quickly, when they choose to.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @takingpitches @mims @ZoranBasich @ychernova Yes, bigtime.
    • @takingpitches @mims @ZoranBasich @ychernova And those investors got destroyed in 2000-2003.
    • @takingpitches @mims @ZoranBasich @ychernova But, that was happening in parallel with an unprecedented IPO boom at the same time.
    • @takingpitches @mims @ZoranBasich @ychernova What we have now is new/different: public crossover but no IPO boom.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims I think there are different buckets...
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims The bucket your (excellent) story is about: Most of those companies could go public any time they want to.
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims They are choosing not to. (For the most part -- there may be a few who couldn't make it out if they tried.)
    • @ychernova @ZoranBasich @mims But another bucket is larger # of more normal "run of the mill" growth companies $50-100M+ revenue.

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Jumped in a car. Picked up someone who got hit by a rubber bullet. #Ferguson http://t.co/urW1prsYXJ — (RT @Awkward_Duck)
    • For those who ask, I'm on twitter because media is out and we need accurate accounts on the ground. #Ferguson — (RT @Awkward_Duck)
    • We literally laid in someone's backyard for what seemed like an eternity while tanks rolled down the streets #Ferguson — (RT @Awkward_Duck)
    • I'm so shaken. They're literally just rolling around throwing tear gas into neighborhoods-not aggressive crowds. #Ferguson — (RT @Awkward_Duck)
    • I was pouring milk over one guys eyes when they came back around and threw another at us. #Ferguson — (RT @Awkward_Duck)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Members of media asked to separate ourselves from demonstrators. I'm under a car wash. #Ferguson — (RT @elisewho)
    • Flares, blasts in both directions #Ferguson — (RT @elisewho)
    • Smoke thick... I could barely see the quiktrip on the other side of the street. Flares still flying #Ferguson — (RT @elisewho)
    • This smoke burns your eyes and your nose.... It's rough. Cops blasting the car I'm hunkering in now #Ferguson http://t.co/Lmh7bvdM1C — (RT @elisewho)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • They just tear gassed the neighborhood!! #Ferguson http://t.co/61dAon1wEb — (RT @Nettaaaaaaaa)
    • They just tear gassed the neighborhood!! #Ferguson http://t.co/61dAon1wEb — (RT @Nettaaaaaaaa)
    • Is this Baghdad?!? #Ferguson http://t.co/h7JWOY2ds2 — (RT @Nettaaaaaaaa)
    • OMG they shooting bullets! #Ferguson — (RT @Nettaaaaaaaa)

    7 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @polemitis @interfluidity That's an elitist stance :-).
    • @polemitis @interfluidity Serious answer -- yes, maybe. But difficult tradeoff for Twitter on multiple fronts.
    • @polemitis @interfluidity Twitter must balance: Needs of existing users, needs of new users, financial targets...
    • @polemitis @interfluidity ...as well as long-term network development and optimization. Optimize for fewer users or grow for more users.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @polemitis @interfluidity Just observing, not judging: There's a fascinating "Internet absolutist" philosophy/value system forming up...
    • @polemitis @interfluidity Absolute net neutrality + absolute no algorithms/user testing + absolute no spying/surveilliance, etc.
    • @polemitis @interfluidity It's new... didn't really exist 10 years ago, maybe not 5 years ago.
    • @polemitis @interfluidity Adherents consider it completely obvious & can't understand why anyone would have any different views.
    • @polemitis @interfluidity Honestly I'm alternating between proud and alarmed :-).
    • “@BeaconReader: 250K people have read story/seen photo produced by crowd funded reporting in #Ferguson http://t.co/M0g5QcS3QB cc @pmarca — (RT @cmschroed)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @blakbillionair @alexisohanian Yep. And no body cams.
    • @blakbillionair @alexisohanian At least as far as anyone knows.
    • @blakbillionair @alexisohanian At least as far as anyone knows.
    • I'm setting up a livestream account on my phone so when I'm down there you have another source. — (RT @minossec)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mattlynley These stories typically overstate the level of actual worker security for most people in the past...
    • @mattlynley ...while understating the value of new choices and avenues for income to lower income people today. This story does both.
    • @mattlynley ...while understating the value of new choices and avenues for income to lower income people today. This story does both.
    • @mattlynley Very well written though :-).

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @polemitis @cdixon Theory is it's not a tech constraint it's a human brain constraint. Won't be fixed by new tech.
    • @polemitis @cdixon Research at IBM starting in 1960s on man machine symbiosis and user flow. Eg http://t.co/2G1ftLzzAg
    • @polemitis @cdixon Below certain request/response latency human stays totally engaged with machine. Above, not.
    • @polemitis @cdixon To Chris's point, video breaks the rhythm, ejects user out of flow.
    • @polemitis @cdixon Not even taking into account nonsense like preroll ads :-).

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @polemitis Sure there was - 10 digits - YouTube!
    • @polemitis That said I suspect I agree with your point.
    • My husband's startup @renovomotors comes out of stealth mode tomorrow. So excited and proud. #startupwife — (RT @aileenlee)
    • My husband's startup @renovomotors comes out of stealth mode tomorrow. So excited and proud. #startupwife — (RT @aileenlee)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • And that's capt Johnson, of highway patrol, nicely talking to people in the middle of the street #Ferguson @vicenews http://t.co/YOk821rkRr — (RT @alicesperi)
    • Before my phone dies, and hoping not to jinx this, but #Ferguson feels like a huge, happy, block party right now @vicenews — (RT @alicesperi)
    • St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson taking a selfie with a protestor. This is a CHANGED atmosphere. #Ferguson http://t.co/Jm51iZXdvz — (RT @Yamiche)
    • St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson taking a selfie with a protestor. This is a CHANGED atmosphere. #Ferguson http://t.co/Jm51iZXdvz — (RT @Yamiche)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dawallach @felixsalmon @jzipdamonsta @danprimack Oh yeah.
    • @dawallach @felixsalmon @danprimack But with more volatility. These kinds of graphs always omit volatility/risk for some reason.
    • @dawallach @felixsalmon @danprimack And it never makes sense to talk about returns in the abstract without talking about volatility & risk.
    • Bravo & thank you @ryanallis for extraordinary act of intellectual generosity--paying it forward to next generation: http://t.co/1A3OYliZlA

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @felixsalmon @jzipdamonsta @danprimack That's not right. We want a deep commitment to long-term thinking and steadfastness.
    • @felixsalmon @jzipdamonsta @danprimack There are not many institutions that have committed to VC over 40 years & stayed the course.
    • @felixsalmon @jzipdamonsta @danprimack There are not that many that actually understand the good and the bad to what we do & how we do it.
    • @felixsalmon @jzipdamonsta @danprimack We commit a long time horizon to our startups and we need the same from our investors.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Outstanding book on how we misremember the past: "The Way We Never Were: American Families And The Nostalgia Trap": http://t.co/iLfQiwW8VV
    • Outstanding book on how we misremember the past: "The Way We Never Were: American Families And The Nostalgia Trap": http://t.co/iLfQiwW8VV
    • Starting with Eden creation myth, Pastoral fantasy is perpetual siren song, pulls us backwards to a nonexistent past. http://t.co/xjw0EuGrIJ
    • Working to make a better world requires creating what has never been, not fantasizing about what never was.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @fmanjoo @cdixon If Uber or Lyft decide they want to own the cars, they could, but they don't have to. It's up to them.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon They have the ability to decide this however they want precisely because they own the customer experience.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon Chris is on key point: For 30yrs, software co's in industries like transportation & health care built & sold software...
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon ...to large established incumbent companies, who then took that software and did whatever they wanted with it...
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon ...which a lot of the time was very little -- it was very rare that the customer experience changed as a result.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon Now, new generation of software companies taking far more aggressive stance of stepping in & owning customer experience.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon Consider difference between Buzzfeed, and alternate scenario where they just made software & sold it to Reuters to use.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @howardlindzon I once almost told a Monica Lewinsky joke to a group that turned out to include her mother.
    • @howardlindzon I once almost told a Monica Lewinsky joke to a group that turned out to include her mother.
    • @howardlindzon Almost.
    • Amazing we ever thought one daily newspaper and one TV channel constituted "news." I wouldn't trust any stream with < 100 sources now. — (RT @vgr)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @sebinsua A company with slow revenue growth and low margins isn't worth very much.
    • @sebinsua So in that state, there is a real danger of investor abandonment followed by customer & employee abandonment.
    • @sebinsua So the window of opportunity to restart growth is very short.
    • @sebinsua Usually too short to restart the growth. Then the company is trapped in limbo... becomes a zombie.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter

    • 1/Tonight I'm tickled pink to be able to talk about our new investment in Buzzfeed! http://t.co/dMA3nKLZL7
    • 2/My partner @cdixon discusses our new investment in Buzzfeed here: http://t.co/cFxpKu9US1
    • 3/“We think of BuzzFeed as a technology company. They embrace Internet culture. Everything is first optimized for mobile and social.”
    • 4/"BuzzFeed has technology at its core. Its 100+ person tech team has created world-class systems... Engineers are first class citizens."
    • 5/And then on top of its technology core, Buzzfeed's reporting team is now routinely committing breathtaking investigative journalism...
    • 6/E.g. @maxseddon at the Malaysian airlines crash site in Ukraine: http://t.co/2U5CfTI28Z
    • 7/E.g. @mike_giglio's war reporting from Syria: http://t.co/TOirxZyE39
    • 8/E.g. @itsjina's amazing story of Rwandan women flexing their political muscles: http://t.co/nNQ6miyGp5
    • 9/E.g. @jlfeder on how Vladimir Putin uses anti-gay policies as a geopolitical strategy: http://t.co/U24iQkeD5q
    • 10/E.g. @AramRoston on how the US covertly arms its proxies around the world: http://t.co/WdbfrD29fa
    • 11/We think the opportunity in front of @peretti, @BuzzFeedBen, @zefrank, and their colleagues is effectively unbounded.
    • 12/We are very excited to work with everyone at Buzzfeed to help them realize their dreams of a profoundly important new media institution.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @panabee In my view, Bitcoin is only a currency as a side effect of everything else that it is.
    • @panabee In my view, Bitcoin is only a currency as a side effect of everything else that it is.
    • @panabee It's the everything else that's most important. The currency part is emergent.
    • How the new generation of anonymous social apps are attempting to head off bullying and bad behavior: http://t.co/PnUSveX27X

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Something I believe that a lot of people I know believe: We live in Golden Age of journalism as measured by quality of top contributors.
    • 2/I've collected 238 members of the press I most respect into this Twitter list: https://t.co/KddFTkoRla -- It's a joy to read every day!
    • 3/As I've discussed before http://t.co/hjZsKprQ5i: Great unexpected side effect of Internet = best journalists have far broader reach now.
    • 4/I can't resist singling out some who fall into category of "drop everything I'm doing to read anything they write" -- out of many.
    • 5/In politics: @MarkHalperin, @jheil, @MarkLeibovich, @nickconfessore, @harrispolitico -- it's routinely amazing how deep they go.
    • 6/Economics: @worstall explains the world we live in better than anyone; joined by @greg_ip and @Neil_Irwin for deep dives into macro econ.
    • 7/Financial crisis made clear quality of reporting by @andrewrsorkin, @KateKellyCNBC, @GZuckerman, @bethanymac12, and @BoydRoddy.
    • 8/At intersection of finance & economics, the ongoing work by @TMFHousel and @matt_levine is truly extraordinary & deeply insightful.
    • 9/Business: Can't wait to see what @adamlashinsky, @jessiwrites, @JPManga, @rparloff, @alansmurray & team do now that Fortune is free of TW.
    • 10/In tech we're blessed with many greats, including @kmaney, @SteveLohr, @martingiles, @kashhill, and @nicoleperlroth: too many to list...
    • 11/For deep substance in complex fields, I love @StevenBrill e.g. http://t.co/HQ3f2bvnmJ and @lawrence_wright e.g. http://t.co/EMz1ppEpKT
    • 12/It's sheer delight to watch the impact @ezraklein @mattyglesias and their colleagues at @voxdotcom are having: I love being voxsplained!
    • 13/And my inner engineer and math nerd marvels at @FiveThirtyEight -- quantitative lens adds tremendously to complex real world topics.
    • 14/Finally, it's really remarkable watching @vicenews bring back full-on gonzo journalism, including in the world's most dangerous places.
    • 15/Over next 5-10 years I think we'll be able to build more tools/systems for reporters like these to maximize their scope & opportunity.
    • 16/Quality of work + explosion of journalism entrepreneurship + rise of 5 billion smartphone world + new tools/systems = interesting times!
    • @pmarca the Ebola outbreak is utterly unsurprising to anyone paying attention to @vicenews last couple of years. — (RT @Jakewk)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Outstanding new op-ed by best living economic historian, Joel Mokyr at Northwestern: http://t.co/FjDWMbQygG
    • 2/"There is nothing like a recession to throw economists into a despondent mood. Much as happened in the late 1930s..."
    • 3/"The economic growth experienced through the 20th century, they tell us, was fleeting. Our children will be no richer than we are."
    • 4/"What is wrong with this story? The one-word answer is technology...digital codification of information = reinvention of invention."
    • 5/"[Terms] like 'IT' don't begin to express the scope of the change...[array of] tools that the digital age places at science's disposal."
    • 6/"The consequences are everywhere, from molecular genetics to nanoscience to research in Medieval poetry."
    • 7/"As science solves problems that were not even imagined, inventors, engineers and entrepreneurs are waiting in the wings..."
    • 8/"...to design new gizmos and processes based on the new discoveries that will continue to improve our lives."
    • 9/"The economy may be facing some headwinds, but the technological tailwind is more like a tornado. Fasten your seat belts."
    • 10/"So: If everything is so good, why is everything so bad? Why the gloominess of so many of my colleagues?"
    • 11/"[GDP and productivity] work for a steel-and-wheat economy, not [ours]... mismeasure the contributions of innovation to the economy."
    • 12/"Many new things are expensive to design, but copy at low/zero cost: Contribute little to GDP even if consumer welfare impact is large."
    • @pmarca https://t.co/fvSaS5nI7R Feininger's newspaper readers painting of 1905 just as obsessed as now — (RT @EmanuelDerman)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @steveniweiss Well, among other things, it's led to the presumption that politicians are either saints, or unfit for office.
    • @steveniweiss Well, among other things, it's led to the presumption that politicians are either saints, or unfit for office.
    • @steveniweiss As opposed to professionals being hired to do a job.
    • @steveniweiss And then we're surprised at the choice of politicians we get.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Something I believe that nobody I know believes: Woodward&Bernstein Watergate coverage precipitated 40yr collapse of trust in print news.
    • 2/That long slow slide of trust can be seen, among other places, in Gallup polls over the years: http://t.co/G4LrmPHGUQ
    • 3/After Nixon resigned 40 years ago this weekend, Washington Post Watergate coverage became exemplar for entire next generation reporters.
    • 4/Political press became obsessed with unearthing scandal, which metastasized throughout print journalism. Gunning for Pulitzer bait.
    • 5/There are clearly scandals that need to be unearthed, like Watergate. BUT: Endless scandal frenzy is exhausting and demoralizing.
    • 6/Particularly when applied indiscriminately across news landscape, and particularly when extrinsic press motivations are so clear.
    • 7/Irony is we now know Woodward&Bernstein less reported Watergate than had story fed to them by Mark Felt, partisan in internal FBI battle.
    • 8/I think the 40 year echo effects of Watergate have more to do with the existential crisis of newspapers than anyone would ever admit.
    • 9/As news consumers, endless barrage of scandal, tragedy, and conflict has real psychological effects. Makes world seem worse than it is.
    • 10/Followup reading that provokes thought: http://t.co/KgLWT1mJV7 http://t.co/Br1nlaLbGj http://t.co/XGwZRQp3w7
    • @pmarca which is why nobody believes Steve Pinker that we’re living in safest, most humane era in history https://t.co/Xspb2NPPBk — (RT @tomguarriello)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @PalmerLuckey So many of the basic ingredients are heavily subsidized by tax dollars (and therefore underpriced).
    • @PalmerLuckey So many of the basic ingredients are heavily subsidized by tax dollars (and therefore underpriced).
    • @PalmerLuckey So they don't have to worry about overall food costs as much as they would if the market worked properly.
    • @PalmerLuckey Why fast food prices stay so low. E.g. McDonald's cheeseburger $1.29.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jmflatow @zaid The all-time great VC Arthur Rock (Intel, Apple, etc.) wrote an essay once (not available online that I can find)...
    • @jmflatow @zaid ...said that in retrospect he would have done better over 30 years throwing away all the business plans without reading...
    • @jmflatow @zaid ...and just evaluating the people. That the VC's opinion of an idea was unlikely to be additive to the decision process.
    • @jmflatow @zaid Because the great founders will understand the idea and market so much better than the VC will.
    • @jmflatow @zaid I don't know whether I completely agree, but it's a provocative argument that really makes one think.
    • @jmflatow @zaid Same logic may then apply to people picking startups to join as an employee or executive, of course.
    • A golden age for journalism? @pmarca @nmoryl @justinkan and many others trading ideas http://t.co/L9EAKzt9Jy — (RT @frankrose)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter



  • 8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mims As I suspected :-). The funny thing is that I'm the same way a lot of the time. Takes real effort to counteract.
    • @mims As I suspected :-). The funny thing is that I'm the same way a lot of the time. Takes real effort to counteract.
    • @mims The term I use is "reactionary event horizon" -- as in: OK, I was on board with X, Y, and Z, but this is simply too much/too far.
    • @mims I think I've only ever met a handful of people who don't have a reactionary event horizon. Human nature, I think.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @sriwattsan @cdixon To some extent I'm sure that's true, but current efficiency is SO bad that there's a lot of low-hanging opportunity.
    • @sriwattsan @cdixon The alternative is scaling current Western industrial model to consumers globally which will clearly be destructive.
    • @sriwattsan @cdixon And then in the longer run, telepresence kicks in, I think.
    • @pngmarca @cdixon @pmarca does Jevons paradox not apply in the case of @lyft and its peers? — (RT @sriwattsan)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @HilzFuld 1 Implications of and applications for 5 billion smartphones worldwide - fully connected planet.
    • @HilzFuld 1 Implications of and applications for 5 billion smartphones worldwide - fully connected planet.
    • @HilzFuld 2 Globalization of technology powered entrepreneurship - in every country.
    • @HilzFuld 3 What I call "software as a lever on the world" - optimizing atoms with bits - far more efficient physical resource utilization.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Lessons learned by managers and shareholders of large regulated financial institutions for the next financial crisis:
    • 2/There is no risk of individual executive criminal prosecution whatsoever.
    • 3/Bailouts are guaranteed, particularly for bondholders, for all but the weakest members of the herd.
    • 4/The one thing that will get punished is acceding to the government's request/demand for stronger companies to buy weaker companies.
    • 5/Ultimate fines will be levied against your shareholder base 8 years in the future, not your shareholder base when the sins are committed.
    • 6/"Too big to fail" institutions will be allowed to become bigger than ever, increasing their safety buffer for next time.
    • 7/And for bonus points, regulatory barriers against new competition will be raised, not lowered, further entrenching incumbents.
    • 8/AND: "Too big to jail" is real, according to the Attorney General of the United States: http://t.co/pfQqZL1fWu
    • 9/AND: Regulators on whose watch the last crisis happened, will be allowed to become even bigger and more powerful.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/We @a16z are very excited about the launch of Lyft Line, and I want to explain why! http://t.co/Jbz6oU0GeZ https://t.co/b2TVhF5Lvu
    • 2/Lyft and Lyft Line are an archetypal example of how Silicon Valley is going straight at the hard problems, in this case transportation.
    • 3/A growing number of people know about the amazing consumer utility and convenience created by "a ride on demand whenever you want".
    • 4/And in parallel, services like Lyft make it possible for people who may otherwise not be able to make car payments to keep their cars.
    • 5/In many cities, this results in a triple win: Consumer convenience, driver economic benefits, and improved business/tourism environment.
    • 6/But beyond that, as Lyft and its peers grow, ride sharing becomes increasingly convenient and affordable as *alternative* to owning a car.
    • 7/This leads to environmental benefits: Fewer cars needed -> less natural resource utilization; Network efficiency -> fewer miles driven.
    • 8/Online supply/demand matching eliminates need for cars-for-hire to drive around & look for riders. Network optimization in bits not atoms.
    • 9/Lyft Line is especially environmentally friendly: Facilitates multiple people riding together on same route, still with high convenience!
    • 10/Everyone in world wants equivalent to upper-middle-class American lifestyle. Services like Lyft make possible without destroying planet.
    • 11/Few new tech's deliver so much to so many: riders, drivers, car owners, cities, environment. And to think it just looks like an app :-).

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mathewi I don't think the axis is anonymous vs non-anonymous.
    • @mathewi I think it's a question of the social dynamics that a system is designed to foster -- encourage or discourage.
    • @mathewi I think it's a question of the social dynamics that a system is designed to foster -- encourage or discourage.
    • Advocacy for Internet anonymity by Karina Rigby from nearly 20 years ago: http://t.co/yJq1hwmw3y ht @onefingershort

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Interesting take on current era of tech conglomerates (or not!) by very smart Steven Davidoff Solomon: http://t.co/cR0vGkvoUl
    • Interesting take on current era of tech conglomerates (or not!) by very smart Steven Davidoff Solomon: http://t.co/cR0vGkvoUl
    • That said, I don't think it's too early to declare Google's $1.6 billion acquisition of Youtube a success :-). http://t.co/cR0vGkvoUl
    • Untrue for us+our founders: "The goal is no longer building a business but to be in the orbit of these tech giants." http://t.co/cR0vGkvoUl

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @MixedSemaphore Our theory of "full stack" = ownership of the customer experience, more than breadth of product line.
    • @MixedSemaphore Our theory of "full stack" = ownership of the customer experience, more than breadth of product line.
    • @MixedSemaphore i.e. Being the consumer-facing solution, vs being an arms dealer that sells tech to companies that sell to consumers.
    • @garymfreedman Tobacco was only 2% of CVS revenue and shrinking, while they were pivoting to managed pharmacy benefits biz. @pmarca — (RT @BlairReeves)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Really interesting business experiment starting at Procter & Gamble: http://t.co/uHbjdPusAK
    • 2/P&G "will sell or exit 90-100 mostly minor brands in bold attempt to refocus the business behind its 70-80 remaining best-selling brands".
    • 3/"'Less will be much more,' P&G CEO told analysts. 'The objective is growth... We're going to be much more agile and adaptable.'"
    • 4/I think a majority of big company CEOs think they should do this in their own companies. But few ever pull the trigger. Too scary.
    • 5/A common thing you hear at big companies is "SKU proliferation" -- sheer # of items for sale. Bloats organization & makes action harder.
    • 6/Steve Jobs legendarily used strategy of cutting brands & SKUs for Apple's turnaround. But few CEOs have followed suit in last 15 years.
    • 7/Like Steve, AG Lafley at P&G is one of the most respected CEOs in the world. If this works for P&G as well as it did at Apple...
    • 8/...I think the odds go way up that many big company CEOs will pull the trigger on the same strategy. Could be transformative for business.
    • 9/The stakes are high: Whether, and how, big companies will be able to grow their businesses & their # of workers in the future.
    • 10/Further, whether/how big companies will invest in new product creation in the future. Paring the old can be staging for creating the new.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @npacer @gavinandresen @jacobgoldstein There's no need for "on the ground" banking if the endpoints are all smartphones.
    • @npacer @gavinandresen @jacobgoldstein Regulatory compliance can be solved with software.
    • @npacer @gavinandresen @jacobgoldstein Not to say any of this is easy :-). It will all be a lot of hard work to get right.
    • 1) everyone fretting over how millennials are changing American consumption, this is incorrect, a real estate example http://t.co/4VNLg4Bjoh — (RT @NaithanJones)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @istumbler True story: @bhorowitz and I drank with him once for four hours. I brought single malt. He would only drink JW Black.
    • @istumbler @bhorowitz He said, I travel all over the world, to the worst places, to interview the worst people. And there's always JWB.
    • @istumbler @bhorowitz He said, I travel all over the world, to the worst places, to interview the worst people. And there's always JWB.
    • @istumbler @bhorowitz ...So I don't want to get used to anything else, that way I'm always delighted when I get there.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Thank you @patrickc for introducing me to this marvelous book -- "Cybernation, The Silent Conquest" -- from 1962: http://t.co/k5xiMgS5Jj
    • Thank you @patrickc for introducing me to this marvelous book -- "Cybernation, The Silent Conquest" -- from 1962: http://t.co/k5xiMgS5Jj
    • "Within 20 years, machines will do a credible job of original thinking, certainly as good as most mid-level people." http://t.co/k5xiMgS5Jj
    • "We need beliefs far different...driving us inexorably into a world run by ever more intelligent slaves [machines]." http://t.co/k5xiMgS5Jj

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @peteragriggs @EssexKIRO7 @balajis Rich consumers subsidizing the early stages of the manufacturing ramp...
    • @peteragriggs @EssexKIRO7 @balajis ...which will pay off with the $30K model which a lot more people will be able to afford...
    • @peteragriggs @EssexKIRO7 @balajis ...which will then be accompanied by a much broader supercharger buildout, is my guess.
    • @trengriffin @pmarca "He has also created two, $500k prizes for the first dept that devises a three-year degree" http://t.co/cHuU6C7784 — (RT @justinbauer30)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Answer to last tweetstorm (https://t.co/TkBZV57iI7) is: 1964, in the International Socialist Review -- http://t.co/l9q7kwnl5U
    • 2/Every single argument made by today's "technology will eat all the jobs" brigade is in there, from 50 years ago.
    • 3/Including the claim that "this time is different", that we finally reached the tipping point where the Luddite Fallacy would come true.
    • 4/And including the demand for massive additional government intervention in the economy to correct the resulting inherent structural flaw.
    • 5/Of course, since 1964, enormous numbers of new jobs have been created and quality of life in the US is way up at all income levels.
    • 6/Identifying the fallacies and flaws in logic in the 1964 manifesto given the 50 years that followed is an interesting exercise...
    • 7/...and, I propose, identical to identifying the fallacies and flaws in logic in the equivalent arguments today.
    • 8/Perhaps most interesting change in era: Advocates then were proud to call themselves Socialists. Less so today. History is speaking to us.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Fun: Here is a manifesto on "technology eats all the jobs" which I did not write. Guess who wrote it and when: https://t.co/WPVyr2mKj6
    • 2/"Computers and the Internet...result in a system of almost unlimited productive capacity which requires progressively less human labor."
    • 3/"The technology revolution invalidates the general mechanism so far employed to undergird people’s rights as consumers."
    • 4/"Potentially unlimited output can be achieved by systems of machines which will require little cooperation from human beings."
    • 5/"As machines take over production from people, the men and women who are displaced become dependent on minimal government welfare."
    • 5/"The existence of this paradox is denied or ignored by conventional economic analysis."
    • 6/"Capitalist system designed to produce increasing quantity of goods; distribution of purchasing power would occur almost automatically."
    • 7/"Continuance of the income-through-jobs link now acts as main brake on the almost unlimited capacity of a tech-based productive system."
    • 8/"Adequate distribution of goods+services...: Not how to increase production but how to distribute the abundance created by technology."
    • 9/"Underlying cause of unemployment: capability of machines is rising more rapidly than the capacity of many human beings to keep pace."
    • 10/"As a first step to a new consensus it is essential to recognize that the traditional link between jobs and incomes is being broken."
    • 11/"We urge that the government undertake an unqualified commitment to provide every individual with a basic income as a matter of right."
    • 12/"Distribution of abundance in technological society must [have] criteria strikingly different from economic system based on scarcity."

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ubuwaits The interesting counter-trend is the renaissance of hand-crafted goods in markets where machines can make things cheaply now.
    • @ubuwaits Handmade clothing, leather products, furniture, etc.
    • @ubuwaits Related, prior gen technologies become fashionable as art forms or lifestyle accessories. Vinyl records, mechanical wristwatches.
    • @pmarca In 1985 the price of an iPhone was infinite. Today $500. Massive deflation. — (RT @ATabarrok)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @a4acw Price deflation of things consumer buy is the same as a pay increase.
    • @a4acw Therefore to the extent that price deflation is a major force in the economy, consumers steadily gain even with flat wages.
    • @a4acw Therefore to the extent that price deflation is a major force in the economy, consumers steadily gain even with flat wages.
    • @pmarca Here's a solid recent research paper on the topic (not on inflation, but growth): http://t.co/38Dzpm9cOb #2MA — (RT @amcafee)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ramez Unless it's having a bigger effect on the other 94% than is currently believed.
    • @ramez That may be the flaw. The historical view of computers as a silo, vs broader economy-wide impact.
    • @ramez Related, productivity growth may be systematically underestimate for the same reason -- measured in $ of output.
    • @ramez I say "may" to all this -- I don't know, but I wonder.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @_IanHathaway No, but you can put a radically better product into market, and delighted consumers will do a lot of the pushing.
    • @_IanHathaway And it's not like there's some alternate method where you can beg for permission from long-captured regulators.
    • @_IanHathaway And it's not like there's some alternate method where you can beg for permission from long-captured regulators.
    • @ATabarrok @pmarca > @NYTimes editorial is trailing indicator. NYT/Krugman r backing decriminalization after Gallup Poll shows support > 58% — (RT @chrisgrayson)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @_IanHathaway I think that can happen but more often it happens in the other direction.
    • @_IanHathaway The technology changes and then we change to adapt. The arguments against fall away naturally.
    • @_IanHathaway Certainly this happens generationally; kids don't really care what their parents think of a new technology.
    • @marcelsalathe @pmarca @onion2k @mattwridley @sapinker See also "Before the Industrial Revolution" to see just how godawful life was then — (RT @ryanp2)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @_IanHathaway I can't prove any of this but this is my guess from what I see on the ground...
    • @_IanHathaway Technology (computers+Internet+robotics etc.) can be used both by big companies to get bigger, or by new companies to disrupt.
    • @_IanHathaway The "big get bigger" consolidation effect comes from scale economics including ability to fund major IT projects.
    • @_IanHathaway You hate to be a regional bank or retailer or light manufacturer competing against global gorillas with huge IT budgets.
    • @_IanHathaway Many industries were still very fragmented 10-20 years ago; payoff from computers+Internet = more consolidation in many cases.
    • @_IanHathaway Then against that you have the tech-driven startups, but there are only so many of them & they take time to develop.
    • @_IanHathaway But then even when tech-drive startups disrupt older firms, there can still be winner-take-all effects among the new winners.
    • @_IanHathaway So again, a secular force arguing against fragmentation and towards consolidation.
    • @_IanHathaway And so, as we see now: hyperscale global gorillas win + best tech-driven innovative startups win, but middle falls over.
    • @_IanHathaway So then there are two arguments for how this could change over the *next* 10-20 years.
    • @_IanHathaway The first is democratization of business IT capabilities via tech trends like cloud/software-as-a-service/mobile.
    • @_IanHathaway Arguably we are entering the first era when smaller businesses can adopt + incorporate new tech faster than bigger businesses.
    • @_IanHathaway And then second, the rise of the "full stack startup" model where more tech startups invade established industries directly.
    • @_IanHathaway See http://t.co/HJI1nL97C9 -- very different innovation model than traditional "tech arms dealer" approach.
    • @_IanHathaway If I were e.g. insurance company or consumer lending company, I'd be far more worried today about new competition vs before.
    • @_IanHathaway You want to bet on trend #1 (revenge of medium-size businesses) if you believe in specialization by customer segment.
    • @_IanHathaway And you want to bet against trend #1 if you believe in mass commoditization of goods and services at huge global scale.
    • @_IanHathaway You want to bet on trend #2 (full stack startups) if you believe the new tech is powerful enough to radically reshape things.
    • @_IanHathaway You want to bet against trend #2 if you believe it's just Silicon Valley getting all uppity and arrogant again :-).
    • @_IanHathaway Finally, the remaining big question is the balance of political forces that are pro-incumbent vs pro-innovation.
    • @_IanHathaway I've talked about this a fair amount here: http://t.co/yTEGMu0pUu
    • @_IanHathaway I attempt to stay positive on that topic, but the political and regulatory wiring in favor of incumbency is quite strong.
    • @onion2k @pmarca @mattwridley I think “Better Angels of our Nature” by Harvard’s @sapinker is the ultimate resource http://t.co/eJaxSAy2Bb — (RT @marcelsalathe)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • The industries that use big data best are those w physical goods - @pmarca #DDC2014 — (RT @kerrywcooper)
    • The industries that use big data best are those w physical goods - @pmarca #DDC2014 — (RT @kerrywcooper)
    • Industries that @pmarca sees as ripe for a more data-driven approach: finance, education, healthcare. #DDC2014 — (RT @mixpanel)
    • Healthcare, education and finance next to use big data and bring down costs @pmarca @mixpanel #DDC2014 — (RT @kerrywcooper)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @DanielleMorrill Yep! Often straight DCF.
    • @DanielleMorrill Tend to be (but not always) higher margin, lower growth, lower ambition, lower tech.
    • @DanielleMorrill Tend to be (but not always) higher margin, lower growth, lower ambition, lower tech.
    • Saw a @pmarca retweet, spent 90 mins watching Peter Thiel. Wrote this post. Twitter is meaningful. http://t.co/4OPpSrRCA5 — (RT @TomShakely)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @patrickc It's not just 70 years of failure. It's 70 years of not even any real theoretical progress. Alan Turing would be flabbergasted.
    • @patrickc "And then magic happens" cranks my skepticism way up. That so rarely actually happens.
    • @patrickc In contrast, for example, there was a 150+ year theoretical run-up to the computer.
    • @patrickc Babbage and Lovelace understood how it would work even if they couldn't build it.
    • @patrickc The last thing I want to be is a tech skeptic :-). But I lose the plot when the handwaving starts, which Strong AI seems to spark.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @patrickc I think computers will continue to evolve down the same kind of parallel path they've been evolving down for 70 years.
    • @patrickc I think they will just become increasingly powerful and sophisticated tools that we will use.
    • @patrickc I don't see any reason to believe there will suddenly be some jump where all of a sudden they are like super-human intelligence.
    • @patrickc Seventy years of AI research and we have yet to make a computer that does anything surprising at all.
    • @patrickc Put another way, I think computers complement humans, vs compete with humans, and that continues indefinitely.
    • @patrickc Or another way: There is no such thing as Strong AI, there is only increasingly and arbitrarily sophisticated Weak AI.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @patrickc OK, #1, what are 7 billion free, empowered, connected people with net-connected supercomputers going to build by end of century?
    • @patrickc #2, What are our odds of staving off catastrophic global disaster over that time period, whether global warming, bioterror, etc.
    • @patrickc #3, When does breakthrough life extension technology arrive, and what impact will it have on society and economics?
    • Incumbents 'can' incrementally innovate, but will they have same level of commitment?BMW & Tesla. Via @sharmavivek10 http://t.co/s9SQE9C0cP — (RT @SuB8u)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dkimerling They had a comprehensive comparative analysis of all consumer Internet business models and all countries.
    • @dkimerling It turned out that between 2001 and 2008 there had been a ton of development of new net business models mostly outside the US.
    • @dkimerling Most US-based investors just missed it, too preoccupied with the US and too bearish and dismissive after the dot com crash.
    • @dkimerling Whereas DST could say, "For X business model with Y user base in Z country, expected revenue and profit is $A" with confidence.
    • @dkimerling And hence DST was bidding on Facebook based on a model that their US-based competition did not have.
    • @dkimerling And generally their US-based competition refused to even conceive that it was possible that DST had an information advantage.
    • One app I'd like to see is Bitcoin contracts automatically adjudicated and settled by the network. — (RT @cdixon)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @charlesjo @CarrieMantha Oh yes, that's continuous.
    • @charlesjo @CarrieMantha Oh yes, that's continuous.
    • @charlesjo @CarrieMantha One of the come-to-Jesus moments for a new CEO is when they realize negative people have to go.
    • @charlesjo @CarrieMantha ...since it flies in the face of all of the "encourage dissent" and "listen to your people" conventional wisdom.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @tomstandage Arguably the early path dependence determines a lot more of the long-term outcome than we think...
    • @tomstandage ...e.g. by tilting expectations towards functionality best served by an open or closed approach depending on how it starts.
    • @tomstandage One might guess that if "search" and "social" had started open, the requirements would be different than we now experience.
    • @tomstandage E.g. expectations of what networks or information retrieval systems were, were very different pre TCP/IP and HTML respectively.
    • @tomstandage Centralized approach may not be able to satisfy requirements derived from decentralized assumptions and vice versa.
    • @tomstandage So maybe how it starts determines how it ends.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @NickHanauer You're talking past my point, which is as follows: I grew up in ground zero of the voter base you're talking about.
    • @NickHanauer Rural Wisconsin; main industries dairy farming and light industry, highly exposed to all of the trends you discuss.
    • @NickHanauer What people in that world experience is that every time they pick up a newspaper or watch TV...
    • @NickHanauer There's some expert or academic or intellectual, typically from a coast, explaining why we're voting the wrong way.
    • @NickHanauer And in almost every case it comes across as patronizing and condescending, one step away from being called stupid.
    • @NickHanauer And then the experts are amazed, each time, why the farmers and light industrial workers and housewives don't vote as expected.
    • @NickHanauer This was, for example, a major contributing factor to why Nixon got elected not once but twice.
    • @NickHanauer And why Reagan was so loved throughout much of the middle of the country, and even George W Bush.
    • @NickHanauer So my point is, the attitude of "those voters are dumb and are voting wrong" is both unhelpful and likely to backfire.
    • @NickHanauer For some reason, even regular people in the middle of the country think they can figure out what's in their own interest.
    • @NickHanauer And telling them they aren't and can't is indeed patronizing and condescending.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @princebhojwani I think that's increasingly what will happen as all of the user-centric logic moves into phone apps.
    • @princebhojwani Phone has better navigation & maps, your media, your calendar (travel destinations), voice & text messaging, etc. etc.
    • @princebhojwani More and more what's running on the phone is eating what used to run in the car (or never ran in the car).
    • @princebhojwani So does your car work well with your phone? Not sure people will buy cars that don't in the future.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @MaryTrigiani @robreich That whole thing is hysterical!
    • @MaryTrigiani @robreich When I was in college, dominant critique: Students all bunch of unmotivated Gen-X slackers, will never do anything.
    • @MaryTrigiani @robreich Now, exact opposite: Students all bunch of overmotivated achievers, too focused on performance and results.
    • @MaryTrigiani @robreich Also Deresiewicz gives away the plot in Generation Sell: He doesn't like/trust business, except his own book sales.
    • @MaryTrigiani @robreich Entertaining for sure. I wish him luck with his grift :-).

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Wolfson @joshk Two reasons why that isn't routinely what happens:
    • @Wolfson @joshk (1) Then we could only invest in a much smaller # of companies than we do now. The $ adds up across rounds!
    • @Wolfson @joshk (2) Risk of losing objectivity by being too emotionally close to the companies we're already in...
    • @Wolfson @joshk ...when you get close to these companies, it can be hard to tell "double down on winners" vs "good money after bad"...
    • @Wolfson @joshk ...and so having the external market validation of a new investor helps make sure we don't smoke our own exhaust too much.
    • @Wolfson @joshk Occasionally VCs will double down on their winners and keep them in-house (like Sequoia did with Whatsapp)...
    • @Wolfson @joshk ...but equally often that leads to the "good money after bad" effect and can cause a lot of damage to a portfolio.
    • @Wolfson @joshk None of this has anything to do with any specific company, of course. This is about portfolio management over time.
    • @Wolfson @joshk Had Airware not been able to raise new outside money from someone like KP, we certainly would have put more $ in :-).
    • @pmarca @amyjokim the literature of the opposition can be fertile ground for a thoughtful mind. — (RT @cmp_05)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @zeynep Again, if you don't want machines taking care of old people, then demographics will solve that problem for you.
    • @zeynep Demographics suggests the core problem 50 years from now will be the opposite of the current concern: not enough working age people.
    • @zeynep ...relative to retirees. Let the working age get too high, ability to pay for welfare of the elderly comes into serious question.
    • @zeynep Again here, productivity growth has to be the answer, smaller % of working age people will need to produce a lot more for everyone.
    • @zeynep And productivity growth comes from... automation, which comes from... technology.

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @beowulf127 Yep, I don't understand why people think gov't officials can call markets any more than anyone else...
    • @beowulf127 ...and history shows they're just as bad at it as everyone else.
    • @beowulf127 ...and history shows they're just as bad at it as everyone else.
    • One week left! Annotate to win a signed chapter of @bhorowitz's book The Hard Thing About Hard Things! http://t.co/HFfg9mTgKs — (RT @newsgenius)

    8 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ferenstein The three benefits of the inbound flow of people we are getting from illegal immigration despite the illegality:
    • @ferenstein 1. Economic: Lowering average working age & increasing birth rate, helping long-run US fiscal outlook tremendously.
    • @ferenstein 2. Human capital: Amazingly motivated and energetic people who work incredibly hard once they get here, add to talent pool.
    • @ferenstein 3. Cultural: Continue to expand the diversity, vibrancy, and energy of American culture, as immigrants always have.
    • An entrepreneur today: "I came to this country with nothing. I have sacrificed a lot. I am building something to last. I will win." — (RT @bznotes)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @ferenstein I do think that both legal and illegal immigration are big net positives for the US. Particularly illegal immigration right now.
    • @ferenstein I do think that both legal and illegal immigration are big net positives for the US. Particularly illegal immigration right now.
    • @ferenstein (I don't mean "illegal immigration" itself is good, I mean it's net plus we are getting those people despite the illegality.)
    • Helsinki's ambitious plan to make car ownership pointless in 10 years http://t.co/EiwHXYD1Ip via @guardian — (RT @benjridgway)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Common thing one hears in US is "Political system broken; Founding Fathers never intended politics to be dominated by moneyed interests."
    • 2/But in 1776, voting "restricted to property owners—most of whom are white male Protestants over the age of 21". http://t.co/x2AVaTBaEa
    • 3/In 1789, George Washington was elected President. "Only 6% of the population can vote." http://t.co/PpX4aLQcM8
    • 4/Not until 1856 was voting expanded even to all white men (eliminating property ownership requirement) -- http://t.co/PpX4aLQcM8
    • 5/1868, voting extended to former slaves (at least in theory), but still explicitly defined as male.
    • 6/Women could first vote starting in 1890 in Wyoming (!). In 1920, 19th Amendment passed, giving women right to vote throughout US.
    • 6/Throughout late 1800s and early 1900s, lots of battles for and against rights of other groups e.g. Native Americans & immigrants to vote.
    • 7/Of course, massive battles in the 1960's to extend practical right to vote to African-Americans; some battles continue to this day.
    • 8/Not until 1971 (year I was born) did voting age get lowered to 18, despite 18-21 year olds being conscripted & sent to war throughout.
    • 9/Founding Fathers arguably designed US system specifically to be dominated by moneyed interests, aka white male Protestant landowners.
    • 10/We have far broader-based voting and political participation today than ever before, due to hard work by many activists over 200 years.
    • 11/And we're still by no means perfect; lots of progress yet to be made. But we're leaps and bounds ahead of 50-100-150-200 years ago.
    • 12/And no, I'm not watching the World Cup finals :-).

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @automin George Gilder for sure, "Telecosm" and his newsletters if you can get them.
    • @automin Also Kevin Kelly's blog archives are really good.
    • @automin Also Kevin Kelly's blog archives are really good.
    • .@pmarca OK the Seventh and LAST shelf on Amazon Listmania http://t.co/7Njqw48O4h (with a little joke at the end) :-) — (RT @MasterMarquette)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @aaronlarue I think in practice it requires truly disruptive innovation in the Christensen definition.
    • @aaronlarue I think in practice it requires truly disruptive innovation in the Christensen definition.
    • @aaronlarue It took Microsoft to end the IBM monopoly, and it took Google and Apple to end the Microsoft monopoly.
    • @aaronlarue "Innovator's Dilemma" still the best book on the topic, if you haven't read it.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @aaronlarue My personal view is that distinctions between needs and wants are almost entirely arbitrary.
    • @aaronlarue In a lot of ways, the story of human economic development is things starting as wants and becoming needs.
    • @aaronlarue So I doubt that's actually a useful framework to consider the other questions.
    • @aaronlarue On monopoly, I think Peter has an idealized view. All monopolies have the same slogan: "We don't care because we don't have to."
    • @aaronlarue You can absolutely count on a monopoly to prioritize retaining & strengthening the monopoly over everything else inc innovation.
    • @aaronlarue Legislation and regulation are not very useful for dealing with monopolies due to phenomenon of regulatory capture.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @DanielleMorrill And when they do cross over into tech and start violating their own valuation rules, historically it's been a topping sign.
    • @DanielleMorrill They tend to do terribly on those investments and withdraw from the market entirely in short order.
    • @DanielleMorrill So of course that's an interesting lens to look at the current dynamic of TPG et al doing so much tech growth equity.
    • @DanielleMorrill "This time is different" argument in 3 parts: death/delay of IPOs, success in tech are bigger now, & trad PE returns down.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @DanielleMorrill Traditional PE and growth equity firms can only invest on a basis of multiples of positive cash flow.
    • @DanielleMorrill Both because that's how they analyze everything and because they often put leverage on top of their equity.
    • @DanielleMorrill They cannot, and will not, impute intangible value that you can't see in the form of current positive cash flow.
    • @DanielleMorrill So they effectively cannot cross over into what you and I would consider "tech", where valuations exceed ~10x current CF.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BenedictEvans I'm not sure I believe that innovation moves in the sense of an unchangeable force.
    • @BenedictEvans I think more often companies in a given layer just stop innovating, but could start again.
    • @BenedictEvans As example, virtually everyone in late 90's believed innovation in Internet search was over, had moved to other layers.
    • @BenedictEvans As another example, virtually everyone in late 90's believed innovation in enterprise systems software was over -> VMWare.
    • @BenedictEvans I guess I think mostly that innovation is a choice. Not easy, but still a choice.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @maheshsharma Sure, there are actually a few intersecting problems.
    • @maheshsharma First, often some significant % of early employees end up with too much stock, particularly the ones who don't work out.
    • @maheshsharma And then you have trouble both re-upping the ones you really want to keep as well as being generous enough with new people.
    • @maheshsharma Then morale issues because early people who aren't that good or working that hard make so much more money than later people.
    • @maheshsharma You can always solve with yet more stock, but then you're being punitive to your earliest investors who took the most risk.
    • @maheshsharma For the really successful companies, these can be tens of billions of dollars of mistakes.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 0/Ten + one ways to grievously damage your high-growth tech startup, and Silicon Valley in the process:
    • 1/Only hire, and only train/motivate/incent your managers to hire -- don't optimize efficiency, don't do performance management, don't fire.
    • 2/Founders, sell too much of your own personal stock too quickly, alienating your employees and questioning your long-term commitment.
    • 3/Let private stock sales by employees get out of hand: create hit-and-run culture and take on burdens of being public before going public.
    • 4/Dilute the s*** out of cap table: be sloppy & undisciplined w/stock grants to early employees, plant morale land mine for later employees.
    • 5/Maximize absolute valuation of each growth round: make later rounds harder and harder to achieve, until you trigger disastrous down round.
    • 6/Let non-SV investors suck you into terrible structural terms on growth rounds: guarantee massive trauma if anything goes slightly wrong.
    • 7/Go public too soon, before you're a fortress, before you can withstand all the assaults: ending in stock price death spiral & train wreck.
    • 8/Pour huge money into overly glorious new headquarters, signaling to employees "we've made it, we're amazing", then repeat two years later.
    • 9/Confuse conference circuit & party scene with actual work. Encourage alcohol & drugs, party culture in company, value ballers over nerds.
    • 10/Refuse to take HR seriously: allow terrible internal manager & employee behavior to catalyze into catastrophic ethical & legal crisis.
    • 11/And the one that will actually kill you: Assume more cash is always available at higher & higher valuations, forever.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @tummler10 @csuwildcat @KevBeirne I mean it's a philosophical question about how you think about how to measure quality of life.
    • @tummler10 @csuwildcat @KevBeirne e.g. How would you feel if absolute quality of life doubled for everyone...
    • @tummler10 @csuwildcat @KevBeirne e.g. How would you feel if absolute quality of life doubled for everyone...
    • @tummler10 @csuwildcat @KevBeirne ...but if income inequality also doubled at the same time? Good or bad?

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @stevecheney Later! In college.
    • @stevecheney BASIC and assembly through age 18.
    • @stevecheney BASIC and assembly through age 18.
    • Convinced most upper/lower GI diagnostics will be done via spatially aware ingestables and wireless telemetry within 10 years. — (RT @pkedrosky)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/One persistent canard from would-be SV critics is "Silicon Valley isn't building/funding the right things, aka solutions to big problems".
    • 2/There are six logical problems with the false choice of "make trivial apps for 20-something SF hipsters" vs "do things that matter".
    • 3/First, "make trivial apps" vs "do things that matter" are not actually in conflict-there's plenty of room and plenty of money to do both.
    • 4/Second, it's often hard to tell which is which up front. Almost all big world-changers were dismissed by critics as trivial at first.
    • 5/Third, observer bias: Only read consumer tech blogs, only go to consumer tech conferences, think SV only works on consumer tech.
    • 6/Founders of non-consumer-tech startups routinely find same pundits mounting criticism have little interest in hearing about other domains.
    • 7/This is exacerbated by SF-centric consumer tech party scene--other domains in SV don't have the same party culture, just nerds at work.
    • 8/New arrivals to SV get sucked into SF party scene, and never make it to the South Bay industrial parks where everything else is happening.
    • 9/Fourth, battling cynical critiques: Founders who articulate the big vision for changing the world get called arrogant and vainglorious.
    • 10/Both criticisms leveled with no cognitive dissonance: Founders either not pursuing big ideas, or out of control egomaniacs if they are.
    • 11/Fifth, subtext often that communication tech/apps in particular somehow aren't important or don't matter, vs energy, education, etc.
    • 12/I think this is 100% incorrect: Communication tech/apps including Internet are the foundation for everything else we'll do for 100 years.
    • 13/Why? Communication is the foundation of collaborative work, which is how all the important problems gets solved. People working together.
    • 14/Sixth: Anyone who thinks SV can be doing more/better/different, come join us and participate in building new things, products, companies!
    • 15/Jump in, the water's warm! SV draws talent from all over the world & all walks of life; nothing preventing any critic from contributing.
    • 16/As my old boss Jim Barksdale used to say, "We have plenty of uniforms your size." Many opportunities to contribute & make a difference!
    • 17/And, of course, tech startup ecosystem now expanding worldwide. Opportunities to contribute from anywhere abound, linked via Internet.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/"Halt And Catch Fire" takes flak from critics for being melodramatic--yet captures real emotional intensity of actual tech startups well.
    • 2/Joe, Cameron, Gordon, Bos all accurate archetypes. I know dozens of each. Must come together to do great things. Can't alone.
    • 3/Tonight's episode best since pilot -- without spoiling, key is both Cameron and Gordon are right. Real tension at heart of many startups.
    • 4/Again without spoiling, final question asked by Cameron's new program still at the heart of our industry 30 years later.
    • 5/Show also shows why founders often don't start 2nd company, or sometimes even talk to former partners after company is over. Too intense.
    • 6/Finally, show is dead on about overwhelming market power of IBM at that time. Seeds of collapse had already been planted but no one knew.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Cleaned-up tweetstorm on "the reverse rules of new technology" -- expressed ironically! -- and labeled as such :-).
    • 2/One thing we know about new gadgets: They can be judged based on their first versions since that's what they'll look like forever. #irony
    • 3/Each new technology arrives into the world w/the perfect universal use case pre-identified. If it doesn't, it flops & dies forever. #irony
    • 4/Any new technology needs immediate widespread cultural acceptance. If it's just used by nerds early on, it'll never go mainstream. #irony
    • 5/New technology products must be immediately cash-flow profitable; otherwise you have clear evidence idea was stupid from the start. #irony
    • 6/Any new tech product that isn't immediately affordable for everyone will never decline in price & will just exacerbate inequality. #irony
    • 7/Any new tech must immediately provide immense utility to the world or shame on you for not "solving big problems". #irony HT @commagere

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dsquareddigest Yes, who it's coming from and when it was sent.
    • @dsquareddigest Technically the "Yo" part is irrelevant. It's a message that's 100% context.
    • @dsquareddigest Added benefits: One click send, much safer to use in car, no need to remember anything except context.
    • @dsquareddigest Also ideally suited for new generation smart watches coming to market soon (small screens, simple input).

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @HeatherDJohn Oh, yes.
    • @HeatherDJohn Possible selection bias, though. Generally any entrepreneur who pitches a full partnership of a VC firm...
    • @HeatherDJohn ...has run a considerable gauntlet to get there -- female and male. So they all tend to be tough determined & pretty fearless.
    • The Man Making Silicon Valley Go Crazy for Hardware | Design | WIRED http://t.co/FxwfX9VckX "Mr. China" @liamcasey doing his thing. — (RT @RonP)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion Yet Democrats are holding high-skilled immigration hostage.
    • @Noahpinion Yet Democrats are holding high-skilled immigration hostage.
    • @Noahpinion Nobody on the side of principle in this one. All politics.
    • Is China getting ready for a bloody crackdown on Hong Kong protesters? http://t.co/2nNqdcY3w7 — (RT @Noahpinion)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • "I've never seen so many people before." Man looking on from Pacific Place as marchers still go strong at 8 #july1hk http://t.co/zT9Fu2zHbe — (RT @jchristychoi)
    • "I've never seen so many people before." Man looking on from Pacific Place as marchers still go strong at 8 #july1hk http://t.co/zT9Fu2zHbe — (RT @jchristychoi)
    • Tens of thousands of pro-democracy protesters marching in Hong Kong, angry w/ Beijing http://t.co/9jnkfh7ceS #july1hk http://t.co/qAX8BuvSqg — (RT @moneyries)
    • Streets in Wan Chai still crowded with protesters singing and marching #hk71 #july1hk http://t.co/3Qormm1ki6 — (RT @AgnesBun)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Gallup surveys on confidence in institutions are endlessly interesting: http://t.co/qHx0Ce6YCz
    • 2/High-trust US institutions (above or near 50%): Military, small business, police, churches.
    • 3/Low-trust US institutions: Medical system, Supreme Court, Presidency, public schools, banks.
    • 4/Almost-no-trust US institutions (<25%): Justice system, newspapers, organized labor, big business, Internet news, TV news, Congress.
    • 5/Conventional glass-half-empty argument is terrible erosion of trust & competency in key institutions, decline & fall of the United States.
    • 6/Alternate glass-half-full argument: Large centralized institutions *shouldn't* be highly trusted: monopolies/oligopolies let people down.
    • 7/Alternate arg cont'd: Lack of trust in institutions motivates construction of competitive alternatives better attuned to we the people.
    • 8/Alternate arg cont'd: Large centralized institutions were 20th century; flexible, responsive, accountable organizations for 21st century.
    • 9/I don't think the answers are at all straightforward. But I think this debate is going to inform a lot of next 30 years of politics.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @asaxena "VC returns" is a flawed concept. VC is not an asset class, it's a boutique industry. Small % of investors generate most profits.
    • @asaxena The question I pose is not about all startups. It's about the top startups that in the past would have IPO'd much quicker.
    • @asaxena We have a choice, those top startups can either IPO fast at low valuations like Microsoft, Oracle, and Amazon did...
    • @asaxena ...or they can IPO later at high valuations like Facebook did. Big difference for public market returns over time.
    • @asaxena The point people keep missing is that I'm arguing against my own personal self-interest on this.
    • @asaxena As a private investor with access to lots of private LP funding, I make more money if the winners stay private for much longer.
    • @asaxena But on the other hand, I think it would healthier for society if the gains from the winners were more broadly distributed.
    • @asaxena But to be clear, with my own self-interest in mind, I'm just fine the way things are. Happy to take all the gains on private side.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @abrams Whatever you think about them, they were both billion-$ revenue companies when they went out.
    • @abrams Whatever you think about them, they were both billion-$ revenue companies when they went out.
    • @abrams You can still take billion-$ revenue companies public, no question :-).
    • @pmarca @BenedictEvans thought you two would enjoy this analysis of homescreen apps http://t.co/beGckW1rmC — (RT @RichBTIG)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @BenedictEvans @cdixon A year ago Facebook was being accused of making you feel unhappy by showing you too many *happy* things...
    • @BenedictEvans @cdixon http://t.co/xQgQFIMsYv
    • @BenedictEvans @cdixon Faced with that question, what would you do? Show more sad things? Show more happy things? Or study the topic?
    • This honesty from @DanielleMorrill on fundraising is profound - must read for every investor and entrepreneur: https://t.co/Tz05E8u5Tt — (RT @stevecheney)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @lagoaThiago I was never at SGI -- although my partner @bhorowitz was.
    • @lagoaThiago @bhorowitz Amazing how much has changed since then -- but also how much hasn't.
    • @lagoaThiago @bhorowitz Amazing how much has changed since then -- but also how much hasn't.
    • @lagoaThiago @bhorowitz Including irony that Google is now in old SGI buildings -- both employing many of industry's best engineers!

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @EpicureanDeal That's my point. "White and Asian" = a large % of the United Nations. The claim is specious.
    • @EpicureanDeal If there was active discrimination or "mirrortocracy" going on, it would be all white.
    • @EpicureanDeal The reality is exactly the opposite. All of these companies are desperate for talent. They'll take anyone who can contribute.
    • @EpicureanDeal We wish there were purple, green, and orange people to hire.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Helpful hint: Whenever you watch TV, read a book, open a newspaper, or talk to another person, someone's manipulating your emotions!
    • Helpful hint: Whenever you watch TV, read a book, open a newspaper, or talk to another person, someone's manipulating your emotions!
    • @pmarca And there are excellent odds they're measuring the results and tuning their manipulation accordingly...
    • Net Neutrality dilemma: we want carriers to be utilities *and* expect massive innovation in broadband #TANSTAAFL http://t.co/yOjbd56vYH — (RT @fmbutt)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Pretty clear data across presentations at #premoney that economic value is being captured in private markets. All the action is private. — (RT @semil)
    • Awesome #premoney presentation on shifts in capital markets by @skupor. IMO he's a16z's secret weapon. — (RT @semil)
    • Scott Kupor of Andreessen Horowitz says "This is not a bubble." #premoney http://t.co/36UhN4ymkH — (RT @Mattermark)
    • Scott Kupor of Andreessen Horowitz says "This is not a bubble." #premoney http://t.co/36UhN4ymkH — (RT @Mattermark)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/New study on interplay between diversity and success in VC investing in startups -- really interesting -- http://t.co/Tj4WBKK9YQ
    • 2/"The more [ethnic and educational] affinity there is between two VCs investing in a firm, the less likely the firm will succeed." !!
    • 3/"VCs have strong tendency to team w/other VCs whose ethnic & educational backgrounds are similar... turns out to be bad for business."
    • 4/"Two VCs from same undergraduate school 34.4 percent more likely to collaborate...and increased by 39.2 percent if same ethnicity."
    • 5/"Odds of success of invested company down 17% if two VCs worked at same company; -19% same undergrad school; -20% same ethnicity."
    • 6/"The lack of success among similar investors seemed to lie in the decisions that *followed* the investment...due to 'groupthink'."
    • 7/Side note: Last names of the three researchers who wrote the paper -- Gompers, Xuan and Mukharlyamov :-).

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @fmanjoo @cdixon I don't think that's the only factor, but I bet it contributed.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon Recall that patent trolling only became an institutional investment asset class not that long ago.
    • @fmanjoo @cdixon Lawsuits are their revenue model, so I bet this correlates for their need to give their investors tangible returns.
    • Amazing color (yes, color!) photos from World War I from @TIME: http://t.co/wyGHEbFfg9

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @interfluidity My best guess: Is it truly in service of making the best product?
    • @interfluidity My partners and I think Christensen theory on disruption & interplay of horizontal & vertical structures needs a new part...
    • @interfluidity His analysis of how products go from integrated to horizontally disaggregated makes total sense, however...
    • @interfluidity At some point the horizontally disaggregated industry (always? sometimes?) loses the plot & makes crappy final products.
    • @interfluidity That's when a rebundled superior product can win, against all expert predictions. Customers do care & will change.
    • @interfluidity Apple is the ultimate case study. EVERY outside observer said they had to unbundle when Steve decided to rebundle.
    • @interfluidity How much was his genius vs how much was PC industry products had unacceptably degraded over its 20 year run? Who can tell?

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Late night tweetstorm addendum to earlier series on unbundling (https://t.co/ecgBveoiMj) and rebundling (https://t.co/0fw9alDKh3)...
    • 2/Younger followers asked me to expand on DEC/Sun/Microsoft unbundling: older history, therefore useful to study as precedent for our time.
    • 3/Once upon a time (1950s-1960s), businesses mostly bought computers from IBM, & IBM also bundled in all the software & services you'd need.
    • 4/IBM bundled offerings were extremely expensive, while demand for computers spread to departments & smaller businesses who had less $.
    • 5/So DEC unbundled the computer itself from the total bundle & sold it for less $ to customers who could then write their own software.
    • 6/But a DEC computer itself was a bundle of proprietary components: VAX hardware, VMS operating system, RDB database, etc.
    • 7/In the 80's, Sun came along & sold a similar power computer to DEC's for 1/4 the cost w/unbundled components: Unix OS + Motorola chips.
    • 8/DEC responded by going upmarket & becoming more like IBM; Sun & other Unix workstation vendors chewed through their market + grew it more.
    • 9/Critical point: At point when DEC started to tip over, its integrated offering was as close to perfect as our industry will ever see.
    • 10/Ask people who were working then (like me) and they'll tell you to this day that they miss VAX/VMS & how productive they could be on it.
    • 11/Meanwhile Microsoft & Intel came along and fully implemented the unbundled low-cost computer, first PCs and then Windows-based servers.
    • 12/Sun responded to Microsoft/Intel by rebundling: Rebuilding itself in DEC's image with Sparc chip, Solaris OS -- proprietary HW+SW stack.
    • 13/Again, Sun got close to perfection as an integrated system when unbundled Microsoft+Intel & Linux+Intel went broad & forced sale of co.
    • 14/Picking up thread with Microsoft: Microsoft has spent last 15 years rebundling, rebuilding itself in DEC's image much like Sun. Now + HW!
    • 15/Once again, bundled Microsoft stack very close to perfect just as it comes under attack from next unbundling wave: mobile + cloud.
    • 16/Fascinating twist: Under new leadership, Microsoft 2014 now committed to unbundling -- full app + cloud support for iOS, Android, Linux!
    • 17/Microsoft taking new unbundling strategy offensively vs new titans who are bundling as fast as possible! Apple, Google, Amazon, Oracle.
    • 18/The point? I don't know much about what our industry will look like in 50 years, but I'm quite confident these same dynamics will apply.

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/The flip side of unbundling: Later on, the unbundlers tend to try to rebundle in the image of whatever they unbundled.
    • 2/So Yahoo adds an ISP (https://t.co/JrlrVoY9Vo), and Google adds email/IM/sports-scores/stock-quotes.
    • 3/Twitter changes its user profile page to look more like Facebook :-).
    • 4/Sun unbundled DEC with commodity components, then re-bundled into a proprietary computing stack just like DEC w/Solaris, Sparc, etc.
    • 5/Microsoft likewise unbundled DEC minicomputers w/PC OS + tools, then rebundled into DEC-like integrated stack now including hardware (!).
    • 6/Paraphrasing Harvey Dent: "You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the company you first competed with."
    • 7/And then sometimes the rebundlers realize what they're doing and try to reverse course. E.g. Microsoft building apps for iOS & Android.
    • 8/And thus the cycle of life repeats with yet more unbundling :-).

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A story of unbundling in the tech industry: 20 years of consumer Internet evolution -- http://t.co/qUCWjc4wkF
    • 2/One upon a time there was AOL, which was a completely integrated Internet access/information/communication service.
    • 3/Then Yahoo came along and unbundled the information/communication parts like email/IM/sports-scores/stock-quotes from the access service.
    • 4/One of the things you could do on Yahoo was search, then Google came along and unbundled that.
    • 5/You can search for anything on Google, including people; Facebook came along with a much better way to just search for people.
    • 6/Three things you can do on Facebook are messaging, photo sharing, and status updates; therefore Whatsapp, Instagram, and Twitter.
    • 7/And yes, Yo unbundles the creation & existence of a message from the contents of a message, unbundling Whatsapp and Twitter :-).
    • 8/Ev Williams (@ev) is the modern genius of this concept--playing out in our industry continuously since the 1950's. http://t.co/p6DzO6tGbL
    • 9/The part people often miss is that you can get extremely powerful second/third order effects at each step with his pattern.
    • 10/The entrepreneurs generally have a pretty good sense of this when they're doing it, but it doesn't become clear to others until later.
    • 11/This is a pattern what we love to fund: unbundle X from Y, but then use the liberation of X as leverage to do amazing new things with X.
    • 12/And the howls of press and analyst outrage at the apparent stupidity of each unbundling are very helpful for keeping valuations down :-).

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @paulbaumgart Also in that world there's no need for fractional private ownership. Hedge funds and pension funds can own everything...
    • @paulbaumgart ...relieving individuals of all carrying costs. Consumer lifestyle all opex no capex.
    • @paulbaumgart With prospect for amazing scale economics on maintenance and physical resource allocation.
    • Smart Cities should be social cities, where technology enables social interaction, not filters it. Blog here http://t.co/IJY4QY1SBH — (RT @kieronkirkland)

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/1950's + 1960's + 1970's + 1980's + early 1990's view of computer technology = "Nerds!"
    • 2/Late 1990's view of computer technology = "Everyone will get rich!"
    • 3/2001's view of computer technology = "The nerds screwed us!"
    • 4/2003's view of computer technology = "We knew those nerds were wrong all along!"
    • 5/2009's view of computer technology = "Those nerds are completely out of ideas!"
    • 6/2013's view of computer technology = "Those nerds and all their crazy ideas are going to destroy all the jobs!"
    • 7/And now = "Those nerds are completely out of ideas again, and now they're having sex too!" http://t.co/Du7pMU6seU http://t.co/GF5L2qXwj3
    • 8/Stay tuned for more updates from our favorite show, "As The Nerds Turn" :-).

    9 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Equally big news of the day: our co @Quirky spinning out "Internet of things" platform Wink as standalone company! http://t.co/knfAGTKgPi
    • 2/@Quirky with its partners including GE and Home Depot is reinventing American manufacturing of consumer products. http://t.co/knfAGTKgPi
    • 3/Now Wink will provide a standard software layer across all of Quirky's products plus many others including GE, Honeywell, and Philips.
    • 4/Quirky partner Home Depot "now sells 600 smart-home products, six times as many as it did two years ago." The revolution is happening now.
    • 5/Important to note this isn't just about toys for rich people; it's about energy conservation, water conservation, security, and safety.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Today we're thrilled to be able to talk about newest investment--Tanium. We're investing $90M; first VC investment since co founded 2007.
    • 2/Collectively partners at @a16z have maybe 200 years experience in systems management; Tanium is a breakthrough like we've never seen.
    • 3/Tanium --> people responsible for large networks of computers & software, what Google --> people on the Internet. Don't say that lightly.
    • 4/Company's operating under radar, but its customers could not be more enthusiastic. Product must be seen to be believed. It's amazing.
    • 5/Tanium is real-time query *and* control--100s of Ks of computers & virtual machines--with natural language queries. http://t.co/q4uYZl4qaX
    • 6/We are thrilled to be working with genius founders David & Orion Hindawi and their colleagues. Masters of the art & science of computing.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/We are very proud of portfolio company @udacity for going straight after opening up higher ed to far more people: http://t.co/QiPJoy5JTx
    • 2/"$200 a month, teach anyone basic programming skills for entry-level position at AT&T as a data analyst, iOS applications designer, etc."
    • 3/"Harnessing the web to provide effective schooling to the many young Americans for whom college has become a distant, unaffordable dream."
    • 4/"'We are trying to widen the pipeline,' said AT&T's Charlene Lake. 'This is designed by business for specific skills needed in business.'"
    • 5/"Education still offers children from disadvantaged families their best chance at climbing the ladder of success."
    • 6/"One reason for enormous payoff from college degree (2x payoff vs 1979) is that too few young Americans ever earn one."
    • 7/"Peter Lubbers, who runs MOOC developer training for Google says, 'We want all the techniques we know about to get out to the market.'"
    • 8/"The 'NanoDegree' offers a set of skills that can be clearly applied to a job--a chunk of knowledge & immediate motivation to acquire it."
    • 9/"Could offer a plausible path to young men/women who may not have time, money or skill to make it through 4-year or even 2-year degree."
    • 10/"US students in bottom quarter of income distribution: college graduation rates only 9%, from 5% 20 years ago." Not *nearly* high enough.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter

    • 1/We are very proud of portfolio company @udacity for going straight after opening up higher ed to far more people: http://t.co/QiPJoy5JTx
    • 2/"$200 a month, teach anyone basic programming skills for entry-level position at AT&T as a data analyst, iOS applications designer, etc."
    • 3/"Harnessing the web to provide effective schooling to the many young Americans for whom college has become a distant, unaffordable dream."
    • 4/"'We are trying to widen the pipeline,' said AT&T's Charlene Lake. 'This is designed by business for specific skills needed in business.'"
    • 5/"Education still offers children from disadvantaged families their best chance at climbing the ladder of success."
    • 6/"One reason for enormous payoff from college degree (2x payoff vs 1979) is that too few young Americans ever earn one."
    • 7/"Peter Lubbers, who runs MOOC developer training for Google says, 'We want all the techniques we know about to get out to the market.'"
    • 8/"The 'NanoDegree' offers a set of skills that can be clearly applied to a job--a chunk of knowledge & immediate motivation to acquire it."

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin Which is one reason so many ideas developed in the megacorp research arms never made it into products, then and now.
    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin And they usually had an odd relationship with the mothership, which wanted as little change as possible to preserve monopoly.
    • @samgustin Which is one reason so many ideas developed in the megacorp research arms never made it into products, then and now.
    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin ...and hyper-profitable monopolies are not normally the kind of thing that people get nostalgic about.
    • @samgustin And they usually had an odd relationship with the mothership, which wanted as little change as possible to preserve monopoly.
    • @samgustin Which is one reason so many ideas developed in the megacorp research arms never made it into products, then and now.
    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin However, it's surprising people get nostalgic about them, in that they only existed within hyper-profitable monopolies.
    • @samgustin ...and hyper-profitable monopolies are not normally the kind of thing that people get nostalgic about.
    • @samgustin And they usually had an odd relationship with the mothership, which wanted as little change as possible to preserve monopoly.
    • @samgustin Which is one reason so many ideas developed in the megacorp research arms never made it into products, then and now.
    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @samgustin I'm all in favor of more research, so only good things to say about them historically and now.
    • @samgustin However, it's surprising people get nostalgic about them, in that they only existed within hyper-profitable monopolies.
    • @samgustin ...and hyper-profitable monopolies are not normally the kind of thing that people get nostalgic about.
    • @samgustin And they usually had an odd relationship with the mothership, which wanted as little change as possible to preserve monopoly.
    • @samgustin Which is one reason so many ideas developed in the megacorp research arms never made it into products, then and now.
    • @samgustin In the meantime, both university research and venture-capital-backed startups have expanded enormously, for the better.
    • @samgustin In total, a lot more research & development is happening now vs 40 years ago, and a lot of it coming to market much faster.
    • @samgustin So I don't quite get what people think we're missing that we should try to recover. More hyper-profitable monopolies?
    • @samgustin Me, I'd rather see a dramatic expansion in federal R&D funding via NSF and NIH, channelled into research universities.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/The thing I find most interesting about Marx is how much he hated the poor and dispossessed: http://t.co/A3Y9U4DsEB
    • 2/Lumpenproletariat: "Layer of working class lost to useful production, of no use to the struggle, an impediment to the classless society."
    • 3/"Translated as slum workers or the mob...class of outcast, degenerated and submerged elements within population of industrial centers."
    • 4/"Beggars, prostitutes, gangsters, racketeers, swindlers, petty criminals, tramps, chronic unemployed or unemployables..."
    • 5/"Declassed, degraded or degenerated elements...innumerable young people also, who cannot find an opportunity to [become] producers."

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A personal meditation on how we learn, and how how we learn is changing radically for the better due to new technology...
    • 2/1989: I go to college & want to learn about how "real" computers work--VMS & Unix--foundation of all today's phones/tablets/PCs/servers.
    • 3/Only way: Get a job at a computer lab that owned such a computer; get access to the literal wall of paper manuals-- http://t.co/sGgCIV3jMn
    • 4/Read those cover to cover; then what? Scientific/technical journals. Only with access to research university library. Until...
    • 5/1990: Co-op job at IBM; discovered mainframe (!) search engine of science/tech journals; in 3 days, get printed copies via office mail!
    • 6/Posed major dilemma: How many papers could the intern request before Big Blue would fire his ***? Tested it into the hundreds.
    • 7/All other relevant info was on the Internet--IETF RFC's, free software code--but who had access to the Internet in 1990? Not many.
    • 8/25 years later: Every smartphone is equiv of million-$ Unix supercomputer from that time, plus *all* that info is freely available online.
    • 9/Science/tech journals still not completely free, but even those walls falling fast now due to Google Scholar/PDF searches/policy reform.
    • 10/Re journals: Aaron Swartz doc is out; powerful memory of freedom of information hero & warrior for progress. http://t.co/Vh9G9FuBeZ
    • 11/Why does this matter? Info is foundation of progress; info about computers is basis of key tool for progress as software eats world.
    • 12/Means of production being put in hands of the masses for first time in human history. I'm broken record on this, but: profound change.
    • @pmarca one example of this is how mobile devices lead to new p2p networks which lead to new employment channels in a new labor market. — (RT @semil)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/I am super-proud of my friends at Google and their new push to help get more girls into coding: "The things you love are #MadewithCode"!
    • 2/From @SusanWojcicki: "Fewer than one percent of high school girls express interest in majoring in computer science....hits home for me."
    • 3/"Along with several partners, Google is launching Made with Code, an initiative to inspire girls to code." http://t.co/ewOIysOzW0
    • 4/Including "commitment of $50 million to support programs that can help get more females into computer science." !! http://t.co/ewOIysOzW0
    • 5/"Nowadays, coding isn’t just a skill useful for working at a tech company; engineering isn’t just for engineers..."
    • 6/"No matter what a girl dreams of doing, learning how to code will help her get there. Their future — our future — is made with code."
    • @pmarca love this @FastCompany story of bronx hs of science teen who learned she loves to code & started XX Hackers! http://t.co/ksTMeNJuoY — (RT @amy_pfister)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/One of the special things about our industry is how intellectually generous many of the leading participants are (no, I don't mean me :-).
    • 2/When I arrived in Silicon Valley in Jan 1994, I sought out all of the written material I could on startups & venture capital.
    • 3/I found exactly two books. An excellent but dry financial analysis of startup returns, and an excellent but dated book by Gordon Bell.
    • 4/So then I looked for magazines, and found exactly one: Red Herring. Which for several years was the best magazine about startups.
    • 5/But, in 1994, Red Herring was ~8 (?) memographed pages, cost $12 (?), published every 2 months (?), & available at only a few newsstands.
    • 6/That was it. I knew there was more material at Stanford & Harvard business schools but I couldn't get to it. There was nothing else.
    • 7/Today, 20 years later, the difference is *profound*. Many of the leading theorists & practitioners share *huge* amounts of info for free.
    • 8/That's a big difference in SV, but what I hear every day from people all over the world=what a big difference it's making everywhere else.
    • 9/A 14-year-old kid in Indonesia w/smartphone has access to 10,000x more info on tech & startups today than I did in Palo Alto 20 years ago.
    • 10/And the cycle is closing: there is startlingly profound new thinking happening all over the world & coming right back to Silicon Valley.
    • 11/In our industry, it's hard to underestimate the consequences of a positive feedback loop -- and this is a positive feedback loop.
    • 12/Assumption *must* be: Tech entrepreneurship all over the world is going to expand a thousand fold in the next 20 years. How could it not?
    • .@pmarca In fact, the 95 Theses that Martin Luther nailed to the door in Wittenberg Germany was basically the first #tweetstorm :) — (RT @KyleTibbitts)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Lots of Mirth over "Yo" today (http://t.co/vYHSgl9OOh) but actually there's a fascinating aspect lots of people are missing...
    • 2/Yo is an instance of "one-bit communication" -- a message with no content other than the fact that it exists. Yes or no. Yo or no yo.
    • 3/Other instances of one-bit communication: Police siren, flashing stop light, "Open" sign, light turned on, taxicab roof indicator lit.
    • 4/But the most interesting instance of one-bit communication is the global "missed call" phenomenon: http://t.co/EVVISRA40Q
    • 5/Missed call on mobile phone is used as one-bit comm: "Used in South Asia/Philippines/Africa to communicate pre-agreed messages for free."
    • 6/Aided by fact that missed calls cost nothing to send/receive. "In Bangladesh, missed calls are 70% of mobile traffic at any given time."
    • 7/So the hilarity around Yo includes two problematic biases: Bias that one-bit comm isn't useful, and bias that all markets are like the US.
    • 8/I'm not saying Yo will be the next $100B social media powerhouse. But instant dismissal makes little sense; let's learn & keep minds open.
    • 9/Excellent followup reading: Jeremy Wagstaff on missed calls, http://t.co/ZSZlJZiGIr @loosewire

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @techmilind Of course the funniest outcome here will be if it turns out to be the next $10B social media property.
    • 1/Lots of Mirth over "Yo" today (http://t.co/vYHSgl9OOh) but actually there's a fascinating aspect lots of people are missing...
    • 2/Yo is an instance of "one-bit communication" -- a message with no content other than the fact that it exists. Yes or no. Yo or no yo.
    • 3/Other instances of one-bit communication: Police siren, flashing stop light, "Open" sign, light turned on, taxicab roof indicator lit.
    • 4/But the most interesting instance of one-bit communication is the global "missed call" phenomenon: http://t.co/EVVISRA40Q
    • 5/Missed call on mobile phone is used as one-bit comm: "Used in South Asia/Philippines/Africa to communicate pre-agreed messages for free."
    • 6/Aided by fact that missed calls cost nothing to send/receive. "In Bangladesh, missed calls are 70% of mobile traffic at any given time."
    • 7/So the hilarity around Yo includes two problematic biases: Bias that one-bit comm isn't useful, and bias that all markets are like the US.
    • 8/I'm not saying Yo will be the next $100B social media powerhouse. But instant dismissal makes little sense; let's learn & keep minds open.
    • 9/Excellent followup reading: Jeremy Wagstaff on missed calls, http://t.co/ZSZlJZiGIr @loosewire

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @techmilind I think I'd be more worried if they investors were Sequoia, Accel, Greylock, Benchmark, and Founders Fund :-).
    • @techmilind Of course the funniest outcome here will be if it turns out to be the next $10B social media property.
    • 1/Lots of Mirth over "Yo" today (http://t.co/vYHSgl9OOh) but actually there's a fascinating aspect lots of people are missing...
    • 2/Yo is an instance of "one-bit communication" -- a message with no content other than the fact that it exists. Yes or no. Yo or no yo.
    • 3/Other instances of one-bit communication: Police siren, flashing stop light, "Open" sign, light turned on, taxicab roof indicator lit.
    • 4/But the most interesting instance of one-bit communication is the global "missed call" phenomenon: http://t.co/EVVISRA40Q
    • 5/Missed call on mobile phone is used as one-bit comm: "Used in South Asia/Philippines/Africa to communicate pre-agreed messages for free."
    • 6/Aided by fact that missed calls cost nothing to send/receive. "In Bangladesh, missed calls are 70% of mobile traffic at any given time."
    • 7/So the hilarity around Yo includes two problematic biases: Bias that one-bit comm isn't useful, and bias that all markets are like the US.
    • 8/I'm not saying Yo will be the next $100B social media powerhouse. But instant dismissal makes little sense; let's learn & keep minds open.
    • 9/Excellent followup reading: Jeremy Wagstaff on missed calls, http://t.co/ZSZlJZiGIr @loosewire

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Proposed: Unless you're with your kids, what's on screen in your hand = likely more interesting & important than what's around you.
    • 2/Sounds extreme, yet how could it not be true most of the time? Screen in your hand contains the entire world vs immediate locality.
    • 3/This is personal for me: I grew up in very small rural town; Kids in rural towns today grow up way more connected to the world than I did.
    • 4/People around you not interested in same things? No problem, screen in your hand connects you to like-minded people everywhere.
    • 5/People around you can't teach you the things you want to know? No problem, screen in your hand gives you all the information you want.
    • 6/The place where you live doesn't have economic opportunity for you? Screen in your hand gives you access to global opportunities, markets.
    • 7/Bastiat's "seed and unseen": What we see are people staring at their phones. What we don't see are their interactions with the world.
    • 8/And then it comes back around: Our online virtual world enhances and improves our local physical world & our friends and family in it.
    • 9/Recommend reading David Gerlenter's "Mirror Worlds", on how our virtual & physical worlds improve one another: http://t.co/MXph8TMhvo

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Speaking of disruption: Tech people like me can sometimes come across as presumptuous/arrogant re disruption of other peoples' industries.
    • 1a/It is possible this is an understatement. I am sure that some of my Twitter friends will expand on this for me :-).
    • 2/From this side of the aisle, though, it's less smugness, more the result of hard experience and learning from our own lives and careers.
    • 3/In tech, our *own* businesses are disrupted by technology change and new competitive entrants at whiplash-inducing rates.
    • 4/It's shocking how quickly you can go from the hot disruptive upstart to the stodgy disrupted incumbent in tech--frequently within 5 years.
    • 5/I've probably been on the receiving end of disruption 30 times in the last 20 years--almost as many times as I've been on the giving end.
    • 6/Now, on the one hand, you might say, "How can people live like that?" ... what's wrong with a little stability?
    • 7/But, what we see is: Frequent disruption is the handmaiden of rapid progress--and it's a blast to create and work amid rapid progress.
    • 8/It's not just rapid progress of tech. It's also rapid grown of companies, and even better, rapid development of *people* & their talents.
    • 9/It's hard to stay in tech for any period of time and not get good at rapid adaptation, skill acquisition... and new product creation.
    • 10/As software eats the world: Same disruption dynamics always present in tech now applying to many more industries, fields, professions.
    • 11/Rather than superiority/contempt, what a lot of us feel is deep sympathy/understanding-- even if that's not always how it comes across!
    • 12/And now we all have the opportunity to learn together--to make many parts of industry/life more innovative/dynamic, better for everyone.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter

    • 1/Fascinating question around Christensen's theory of disruption: "OK, smart guy, why haven't Apple iPhone/iPad been disrupted by Android?"
    • 2/I count five possible answers; there may be more...
    • 3/A. Theory of disruption is hucksterish management consultant fraud. (This one I do not agree with.)
    • 4/B. Right now Apple *is* the disruptor--iPhones/iPads vs Windows PCs. Many surprised by rapid rise of direct substitution, including me.
    • 5/C. Apple *is* getting disrupted right now: Android phones outselling iPhones somewhere between 5:1 and 10:1 worldwide right now.
    • 6/D: Related to C, Apple isn't getting disrupted *yet*, but will be soon. This is what many in Silicon Valley believe, but Apple does not.
    • 7/E: The most interesting one: Current theory of disruption is incomplete; does not have a broad enough concept of end-user quality.
    • 8/In this line of argument, disruption theory was born in Microsoft/Intel era, when everyone expected computers to have, um, certain issues.
    • 9/Apple brilliantly redefined conception what was possible from end-user quality and integration standpoint, against prevailing assumptions.
    • 10/We have attempted to generalize *this* concept into "full stack" thinking, which many of today's best startups are also pursuing.
    • 11/It's possible disruption theory needs to be evolved to accommodate these newer patterns and learnings...
    • 12/But it's also possible all such "full stack" patterns are just integrated approaches that themselves will be disrupted in the future.
    • 13/Time will tell. In Silicon Valley, these topics are central and being debated both in actions and words by ultra-smart people every day.
    • 14/References: http://t.co/HJI1nL97C9 http://t.co/Gxz600QDIh + Discussions w/@cdixon @stevesi @balajis @bhorowitz & others.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @fmanjoo @mmasnick @vpostrel Disruption theory is quite good re the past, often useful re the future, & frequently valuable re the present.
    • @fmanjoo @mmasnick @vpostrel In what I like to call "the real world", correctly understanding the present is actually quite helpful.
    • @fmanjoo @mmasnick @vpostrel Many of the most useful theories of human behavior are better re the present than the future. Not surprising.
    • @fmanjoo @mmasnick @vpostrel People are complicated, situations are complex. But ways to understand are valuable even when not perfect.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @fmanjoo @mmasnick @vpostrel There's explaining the past, there's predicting the future, but there's also understanding the present.
    • @fmanjoo @mmasnick @vpostrel Disruption theory is quite good re the past, often useful re the future, & frequently valuable re the present.
    • @fmanjoo @mmasnick @vpostrel In what I like to call "the real world", correctly understanding the present is actually quite helpful.
    • @fmanjoo @mmasnick @vpostrel Many of the most useful theories of human behavior are better re the present than the future. Not surprising.
    • @fmanjoo @mmasnick @vpostrel People are complicated, situations are complex. But ways to understand are valuable even when not perfect.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @vpostrel The obvious question is what other substantive/accurate/useful theories does she feel qualified to attack the same way.
    • @vpostrel Put another way: Christensen's disruption theory is the opposite of handwaving; her essay is the definition of handwaving.
    • @vpostrel Substance matters. Real things in the real world are not contemptuously dismissible with a cultural studies critique.
    • @vpostrel (I am fully aware that you know all this!)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @vpostrel She didn't have to do that; she chose to do that.
    • @vpostrel The obvious question is what other substantive/accurate/useful theories does she feel qualified to attack the same way.
    • @vpostrel Put another way: Christensen's disruption theory is the opposite of handwaving; her essay is the definition of handwaving.
    • @vpostrel Substance matters. Real things in the real world are not contemptuously dismissible with a cultural studies critique.
    • @vpostrel (I am fully aware that you know all this!)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @vpostrel I am deliberately heightening the contradictions to make the larger point.
    • @vpostrel She picked a substantive/accurate/useful business/tech theory & decided to dismiss it as a pointless cultural artifact.
    • @vpostrel She didn't have to do that; she chose to do that.
    • @vpostrel The obvious question is what other substantive/accurate/useful theories does she feel qualified to attack the same way.
    • @vpostrel Put another way: Christensen's disruption theory is the opposite of handwaving; her essay is the definition of handwaving.
    • @vpostrel Substance matters. Real things in the real world are not contemptuously dismissible with a cultural studies critique.
    • @vpostrel (I am fully aware that you know all this!)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @jenny8lee I think judging from these emails, this particular company actually had pretty good interaction with VCs it pitched.
    • @jenny8lee A lot of companies would tell you that they never got replies that courteous or that articulate.
    • @jenny8lee The feedback that founders often never get that can be most important is "we don't think you're good enough to pull it off".
    • @jenny8lee A big undercovered component to this whole process is, what does it mean to be qualified to be a tech founder & raise VC?
    • @jenny8lee I.e. what did the founders do for the 10 years prior to trying to raise VC for their startup?
    • Orszag: It's time for some optimism about health care spending http://t.co/c1lLUvhkvd — (RT @voxdotcom)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • How many heart-wrenching developing-world charity initiatives are scams that make things even worse, like this? http://t.co/dB7AzMdx46
    • Specifically, how many nonprofit initiatives promoted and sponsored by high-profile Western charity umbrella organizations are of this type?
    • Finally, at what point do we upgrade our assessments of Dambisa Moyo and James Shikwati? http://t.co/wm9fCDoQdm http://t.co/RGzLJ9punf
    • [new post] Sunday Conversation #10 with @Rabois, on Bitcoin, Stripe, valuations, Homerun, and being a VC-founder: http://t.co/t5jxkRgxFE — (RT @semil)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @DanielleMorrill What I mean: companies that hit product/market fit right away don't need to raise very much initial capital.
    • @DanielleMorrill This is the opposite of "Not raising very much initial capital makes it more likely you'll be super-successful."
    • @DanielleMorrill If you take the "small amounts of initial capital cause success" argument seriously, then...
    • @DanielleMorrill ...the rational thing to do would be to shut down any startup that burns through initial ~$3M of capital without success.
    • @DanielleMorrill But obviously that doesn't make sense -- sometimes things just take longer and/or are more expensive than others.
    • @DanielleMorrill Which exposes flaw in the theory. The theory doesn't really hold and people don't really believe it, but they still say it.
    • @DanielleMorrill (Because people dearly want to believe there are specific causes of success that can be applied in any situation :-).

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A few thoughts on timing and staging of capital into modern tech startups -- start with fact that 2003-20011 seed rounds were ~$500K-1M.
    • 2/As @DanielleMorrill points out, now you see more startups raising $2-3-4M or even more in "seed" financing, often in multiple tranches.
    • 3/So then think about the startup that's raised $3-4M or even $5-6M in "seed" funding that goes to raise a "Series A" from VC firms.
    • 4/VC looks back across the table: "You're not raising a Series A, you're raising a Series B--you already raised your Series A [in seed $]".
    • 5/This can take the startup by surprise, because it really affects how VCs think about progress and milestones, key to raising new round.
    • 6/VCs assume Series A is to build product + get first beta customers; Series B is to build the business around the product + get to revenue.
    • 7/So a startup that raised as much $ as a Series A in seed funds, but hasn't achieved actual Series A milestones, can be in real trouble.
    • 8/VC says: "You said you're raising A but you're actually raising B, and you haven't accomplished enough to merit a B. Thank you, but pass."
    • 9/So the risk of calling $3-4-5-6M "seed" raises "seed" is that founder can fool himself/herself heading into the first real VC raise.
    • 10/The rise of the "New Series A" by firms like A Capital is intended to address this issue head on. http://t.co/85ry6XtiiE
    • 11/In effect, a $3-5M seed round or a $3-5M "New Series A" is a recreation of the original conception of an A round from historical VC.
    • 12/Takeaway for founders? Think very hard about timing and staging of capital vs progress and milestones; matters a lot for raising A/B/C.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/"The VA scheduling system scheduled its first appointment in April of 1985. It has not changed in any appreciable manner since that date."
    • 2/Said Philip Matkovsky, assistant deputy under-secretary of the VA. http://t.co/558HmaTfq7
    • 3/So, watch "Halt and Catch Fire", while thinking to yourself, current VA scheduling system was being built at the same time.
    • 4/And then think about the odds of any private company still being in business with a core system running unchanged for 30 years.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/On AI & the Turing Test: Recently the Internet got all fired up--did a software bot pass/not pass the Turing Test: http://t.co/X4MRbdhjfk
    • 2/Turing Test, proposed by uber-genius Alan Turing in 1950, is: Can a software bot convince a human it's also human, via text chat?
    • 3/My view is that Turing Test has always been malformed, humans are too easy to trick, passing test says almost nothing about software.
    • 4/"But Marc, Alan Turing was the genius of all time, and you're just some dude on Twitter. What the hell, man?" That's a good point!
    • 5/Turing said something else that I think is far more relevant, which he announced loudly in the executive cafeteria at Bell Labs in 1942:
    • 6/Turing: "I’m not interested in developing a powerful brain. All I’m after is just a mediocre brain, something like the president of AT&T."
    • 7/And I think that's actually what happened, and it happened in the form of enterprise software: the code that runs businesses today.
    • 8/Yep, that's right: Actual AI is SAP, Peoplesoft, Oracle, http://t.co/IQqvVD9Xj7, Workday, Netsuite, Great Plains, and a thousand others.
    • 9/AI turned out to be the last thing anyone expected. Banal.
    • 10/Credits: Conversations with @cdixon @balajis @bhorowitz; http://t.co/soBTqHeeTn http://t.co/jpvhrwsoT7 http://t.co/XKlfEcP9uw

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @HilzFuld The other thing that can't be underestimated is getting the cost structure right.
    • @HilzFuld And the OTHER thing that can't be underestimated is the value of 100% offensive focus, not protecting an offline business.
    • @HilzFuld Those latter two are persistently underestimated by the incumbents.
    • Congrats to @autismspeaks & the Google Cloud Genomics team on creating a huge public database for autism research -- http://t.co/AKwcfntEx1 — (RT @jhuber)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @HilzFuld I think it's easier now at least in many cases. The art and science is much better understood now.
    • @HilzFuld And advertisers are figuring out they have to move the money over. They're highly receptive to the conversation.
    • @HilzFuld And so many incumbents are just collapsing in place and not putting up a real fight.
    • @HilzFuld Also don't underestimate the hybrid business models these days. Ads + subs + conferences works pretty well as an example.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @munilass I am increasingly coming around to a view that there may not have even been a dot com bubble. (Nobody agrees with me on that.)
    • @munilass It is striking how many failed dot com ideas from the late 90's are working today (in every sense of working, e.g. profit).
    • @munilass I think it's possible that VCs of that era were, at least for the most part, making rational bets against big opportunities.
    • @munilass I think it's possible that dot coms got sideswiped by what was (in my view) undoubtedly a (bigger & different) telecom bubble.
    • @munilass ...and that there's a counterfactual history where telecom investment didn't go so nuts & dot coms on whole would have been fine.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/How important is new communication technology both to maintenance of state control & subversion of state control? http://t.co/mpxdNs0dzf
    • 2/1989: "40 years into the era of xerography, Soviet Union is moving its photocopiers from guarded, double-locked, steel-covered doors..."
    • 3/"...admitting photocopiers are standard office equipment and not really the grave threat to state security as they were once perceived."
    • 4/"Main Directorate of Protecting Public Order said recent spread to more than 60,000 different Soviet organizations of photocopiers..."
    • 5/"...had made its task of supervising their operation virtually impossible...freed in major step towards glasnost, or political openness."
    • 6/"Inspectors from the Interior Ministry will no longer be checking each machine to ensure that it is locked in secure quarters..."
    • 7/"...that complete registers are kept of the documents copied and that the numbers of copies correspond to tamper-proof counters."
    • 8/"People had faced very long lines [to make copies], as they and their papers were scrutinized at authorized photocopier offices."
    • 9/"Izvestia said 'the primary goal was to prevent the proliferation of undesirable texts' in the Soviet Union..."
    • 10/"'From the first days of Soviet power, even typewriters were put under tight supervision, and that was abolished only recently.'"
    • 11/"Chief of Second Department of Main Directorate of Protecting Public Order, said new technology has overtaken controls on photocopiers."
    • 12/"With computers/optical scanners/laser printers 'to produce a whole newspaper'...regulations governing copiers have become pointless."

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @vgr Step 1: Locate someplace cheap with great Internet access; perhaps downtown Detroit.
    • @vgr Step 2: Do programming jobs on Rentacoder/eLance/equivalent enough to cover expenses; build A+ online reputation for great results.
    • @vgr Step 3: Spend 2/3rds remaining time becoming primary contributor to leading-edge open source projects on Github.
    • @vgr Step 3 cont'd: Build amazing reputation on Github and in developer community for amazing code in leading-edge areas (eg Bitcoin).
    • @vgr Step 4: Spend remaining 1/3 time blogging and tweeting on those leading-edge areas; build online reputation as lead expert in field.
    • @vgr Step 5: Iterate as needed until one gets serious job offer at credible company to move to Silicon Valley. Move to Silicon Valley.
    • @vgr Step 6: Work at that company for 2-4 years and knock the ball out of the park; continue open source and blogging work on the side.
    • @vgr Step 7: Based on accumulate reputation and results, get job at top SV rocket ship company like Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest.
    • @vgr Step 8: Work at that company for 2-4 years and knock the ball out of the park; continue open source/blogging; meet lots of people.
    • @vgr Step 9: Start own company with smartest people one has met along the way; off to the races.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Have to post this again because it's just too good not to -- who's coming to Silicon Valley from @BW: http://t.co/0ZgujRkP4M
    • 2/One third of Silicon Valley startups are founded by Indian-Americans.
    • 3/As of 2010, Asian-Americans are the majority of Silicon Valley tech workforce: 50% vs 40% for Caucasians.
    • 4/Possibly eye-opening sources of talent in quantity: Japan, Middle East, Vietnam, France, Pacific Islands, Africa, Caribbean.
    • 5/Silicon Valley is a powerful successful example of the "melting pot" theory: ignore origin and ethnicity, come together to do big things.
    • 6/Why we must continue to push to expand access/openness/inclusion to all origins/ethnicities/genders/religions: huge opportunities ahead.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Part 4 of "tech gives people superpowers" tweetstream (part 3: https://t.co/2qAzQwUY1k) -- implications of the growth of tech superpowers.
    • 2/First, some tech superpowers help us as consumers, but many upgrade us as creators, builders, inventors, designers, artists: *producers*.
    • 3/While it is true that tech superpowers can replace need for prior manual labor, it's also true that they enhance our ability to produce.
    • 4/Both sides of the equation are critical, otherwise one collapses into the Luddite fallacy and holds back progress that benefits everyone.
    • 5/This is also why I think we need an ongoing vigorous social safety net, to help people bridge gaps in their lives as tech leaps forward.
    • 6/Second, tech superpowers at this point are being applied more or less equally to individuals, governments, and businesses.
    • 7/In Orwell's vision, government got all the tech superpowers. In our world, everyone seems to be getting them all at the same time.
    • 8/Same tech advances that enable NSA surveillance also enabled Edward Snowden to walk out of NSA with 1.7 million classified documents.
    • 9/(Ability to use a web crawler and a thumb drive would have been the fantasy of all time for Kim Philby. Times have changed.)
    • 10/The impact of tech superpower upgrading of individuals, businesses, and governments radically shifts power balances between the three.
    • 11/The politics of the next 30 years will be in large part defined by the shifting impact of tech superpowers across indiv, bus, and gov't.
    • 12/Prior conflicts like Snowden, SOPA, the Arab Spring, and cybercrime are only open gambits -- the real drama is yet to come.
    • 13/My nomination: Tech-driven price deflation; lowers prices, reduces measured GDP & productivity, while boosting consumer welfare.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Progressive and smart economist Jared Bernstein on the productivity puzzle of robots eating all the jobs (or not): http://t.co/8Gd2AQugYn
    • 2/"Productivity growth was up 1% last year and has averaged 0.8% since 2011...[a] smooth trend through the numbers."
    • 3/"The trend suggests that the pace of productivity growth has decelerated since the first half of the 2000s: begs an important question."
    • 4/"I keep hearing about 'the end of work' based on the assumption that the pace of labor-saving technology—robots, AI—has accelerated."
    • 5/"Maybe it has—there’s lots of good anecdotes to that effect, most recently that geeky-looking Google self-driving car."
    • 6/"But the robots-are-coming advocates need to explain why a phenomenon that should be associated with accelerating productivity..."
    • 7/"... is allegedly occurring over a fairly protracted period where the [productivity] trend in output per hour is going the other way."
    • 8/"A shave with Occam’s razor [explanation]...would be weak demand and its corollary, weak capital investment [nothing to do with robots]."
    • 9/"Until someone can convince me what’s wrong with the above argument, I don’t want to hear that automation is precluding full employment."
    • 10/My own take: We're still coming out of a severe macroeconomic down cycle, credit crisis, deleveraging, liquidity trap.
    • 11/Prevailing pessimistic economic theories--death of innovation, robots eating all the jobs, crisis of inequality--will fade with recovery.
    • 12/For bonus points, identify the other tech-driven economic force that could explain low productivity at a time of great tech advancement.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @alexismadrigal @tonyflo Other implication of better understanding of brain chemistry/neurology = revolution in theory of crime&punishment.
    • @alexismadrigal @tonyflo The question of what behaviors individuals are actually responsible for is going to open way up.
    • @alexismadrigal @tonyflo As well as, what to do about people behaving in societally deviant ways who scientifically can't help it.
    • @pmarca transparency should be another one. The super power to democratize knowledge and call out bullshit on the spot. — (RT @miguelsampedro)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Part 3 of "tech gives people superpowers" tweetstream (part 2: https://t.co/WaEQoefuqz) -- new superpowers coming in the next 10 years.
    • 2/This is a difficult list to make; there are hundreds if not thousands of candidate superpowers on deck that could hit big next 10 years.
    • 3/Crowdfunding = superpower to instantly raise money from global customers and investors for millions of new ideas, products, businesses
    • 4/Quantified self = superpower to understand one's own body continuously in real time, optimize health & wellness with high precision
    • 5/3D printing = superpower to design and instantly manufacture physical objects with zero inventory, supply chain, or transportation
    • 6/Combine modern bio, 3D printing, & computing-->prosthetics & exoskeletons; superpower: paralyzed to walk, disabled to abled, bilnd to see
    • 7/Bitcoin & blockchain = superpower to instantly & safely transact, do business, engage in commerce & trade with everyone in the world
    • 8/Virtual reality = superpower to experience other places and times, real and created, serious and fun; telepresence replaces transportation
    • 9/Augmented reality = superpower to know a million times more about the world around you and everything in it; step function increase in IQ
    • 10/Self-driving cars = superpower to dramatically reduce # of cars on road, turn parking lots into parks, while saving millions of lives
    • 11/Drones = superpower to easily function in the air just like we do on the ground; see from the sky, deliver in the air, and fly in VR
    • 12/And yes, robots = superpower to augment human physical capability; easily do physical work too difficult or dangerous for unaided humans
    • 13/The nature of each of these is that we don't yet live in a world where they are ubiquitous: very difficult to imagine true implications.
    • 14/We therefore can predict only a very small fraction of the things that people will do with these superpowers once they have them.
    • @pmarca Knowledge is power. Getting access to right information is the first step in it...wearables, quantified self, drones, satellites... — (RT @bznotes)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Techcrunch commenters during coverage of Uber's <$50M pre-money valuation financing round 3 years ago: http://t.co/x8uvBheDAj HT @semil
    • 2/"As someone who has been in the car service business his whole life, a valuation that high is asking for trouble."
    • 3/"I wish them luck; however, it is a very mom and pop industry and you will be lucky to just make a living."
    • 4/"If Uber becomes the most successful [car service company] out there, you are not looking at a billion dollar company by any means."
    • 5/"I don't know of any competitive advantage Uber has over Carey or Boston Coach...which can launch similar technology in matter of weeks."
    • 6/"I'm looking forward to seeing if Uber is actually successful outside of San Francisco."
    • 7/"Wow, $11 million for a company that is equivalent to calling a taxi! Why didn't I think of that!"
    • 8/"I'm surprised. Is Uber in the clear yet legally? Seems like they could still be shut down any day."

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mrsenorhill @cdixon I think for smart VCs you can increasingly show them a combo of a small # of extremely happy customers...
    • @mrsenorhill @cdixon ...and then a bottoms-up market sizing estimate that shows how that small # could become large in the future.
    • "Halt and Catch Fire" on AMC is an absolutely pitch-perfect recreation of the birth of the PC industry: http://t.co/Ln6yRku0Rp
    • Between "Halt and Catch Fire" and "Silicon Valley", people can finally see what tech startups are actually like on the inside.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @WillOremus You'd correlate passwords and logins with IP addresses, cookies, etc.
    • @WillOremus But you'd interfere with a lot of legitimate logins for users travelling &/or using multiple devices in the process.
    • @WillOremus And then the compounding problem of various family members each travelling &/or using multiple devices.
    • @WillOremus So you'd take a hit to customer satisfaction that would really have to be worth it.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @takingpitches @koxinga21 Hedge fund mgr friend of mine argues that ACA is an implicit subsidy of capital owners at taxpayer expense.
    • @takingpitches @koxinga21 ACA motivates owners of businesses to push employees down/out of employer-backed health care plans.
    • @takingpitches @koxinga21 As well as transform full time jobs into part time jobs to be able to tap into government program more.
    • @takingpitches @koxinga21 Net result = taxpayers cover more health care costs, employers cover less. Capital owners win, taxpayers lose.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @koxinga21 Second, the bad news: Baumol's cost disease; consequence of healthcare not seeing sufficient productivity advances.
    • @koxinga21 The answer to both has to be to crank up technology innovation in healthcare, to drive up quality & drive down cost.
    • @koxinga21 A positive case study for what's possible is the cost of LASIK eye surgery, which has fallen dramatically in 15 years.
    • @koxinga21 We should bring that same rapid cost decline to every other major part of healthcare spending through better technology.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @koxinga21 So that gets to another really important issue, which is the rising cost of healthcare (the basket of products & services in HC).
    • @koxinga21 Healthcare costs naturally want to rise extremely fast for two really important reasons:
    • @koxinga21 First, the good news: definition of healthcare keeps expanding as more treatments, drugs, protocols are invented.
    • @koxinga21 We not only want everyone to have healthcare, we want everyone to have everything IN healthcare which keeps expanding.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @koxinga21 It's MOOCs but also Google, Wikipedia, Youtube, Kahn Academy, Github, Wolfram Alpha, Google Scholar, and thousands more.
    • @koxinga21 All free to everyone with a smartphone + net connection, which will be ~6 billion people by the end of the decade.
    • @koxinga21 This goes to the argument I had with economist friend, who said "Most people are like horses, they can only offer their labor."
    • @koxinga21 I deeply have more faith in the capabilities and potential of people everywhere than that, & increasingly they'll have the tools.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Part two of "tech gives people superpowers" tweetstream (part 1: https://t.co/2Bx6rZwefV) -- new superpowers just in the last ~10 years:
    • 2/Google, Wikipedia = superpower to ask any question, get any answer, as many as you want, for free -- from the world's total knowledge base
    • 3/Facebook = superpower to always be connected with everyone important in your life, regardless of geography, all the time, for free
    • 4/eBay, Etsy, Alibaba = superpower to take goods you make or want to resell to a global market of buyers, with transparent & fair pricing
    • 5/GPS + Google Maps + smartphones = superpower to never be lost, always be able to find anything, and always know where your kids are
    • 6/Spotify, Beats = superpower to listen to the entirety of recorded music in human culture as much as you want, anytime you want
    • 7/Lyft, Uber, AirBNB, HotelTonight = superpower to be able to easily move around and then stay places with transparency and safety
    • 8/Skype, Slack, Asana = superpower to form into teams and collaborate on projects with people all over the world regardless of geography
    • 9/Github = superpower as a programmer to build new software with unprecedented ease and power, on top of a global base of existing code
    • 10/AWS = superpower as a programmer to access a global supercomputer with miraculous power on demand for mere dollars
    • 11/These are only a few examples -- there are probably 100 more new tech superpowers just in the last 10 years of similar magnitude.
    • 12/I am firmly convinced many people are fundamentally underestimating the power and potential of these new superpowers in the years ahead.
    • 13/We are only at the very beginning of understanding what people all over the world are going to be able to create and build from here.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/A rare interview with one of my heroes: Stanford Professor Donald Knuth, author of "Art of Computer Programming"...
    • 2/"I can speak only to people who happen to have grown up with the strange kind of 'brain organization' that I seem to have..."
    • 3/"For lack of a better word, let me simply say that I'm a 'geek.' I haven't got a good definition or a good litmus test for geekhood..."
    • 4/"...but I definitely know it when I see it; and I see it in about 2% of the world's population. The main characteristic is an ability..."
    • 5/"...to understand many levels of abstraction simultaneously, and to shift effortlessly between in-the-large and in-the-small."
    • 6/"Dear young person, if you are a geek, the world needs you, and you will never run out of opportunities to apply your talents."

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mmasnick @mathewi @dangillmor It's within NSA remit to monitor SIGINT into and out of the US involving foreigners.
    • @mmasnick @mathewi @dangillmor So how to fulfill that mission when one person in the communication chain is an American citizen?
    • @mmasnick @mathewi @dangillmor It's a very complex issue. Smart people in government have grappled with it for decades.
    • @mmasnick @mathewi @dangillmor I'm not saying surveillance of US citizens is right. I'm saying this particular issue is complex.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @mathewi @dangillmor Snowden has committed many acts by revealing many secrets.
    • @mathewi @dangillmor The majority are self-evidently treason as they reveal foreign intelligence operations not involving US citizens.
    • @mathewi @dangillmor There are a handful involving US citizens that may deserve whistleblower status.
    • @mathewi @dangillmor But even those are complex, and not just slam dunk black and white "he's a hero".
    • @mathewi @dangillmor Like I said, for example, I don't think phone metadata is a black and white issue the way it's being portrayed.
    • @mathewi @dangillmor Another example, the early PRISM reporting was spectacularly wrong, which has stuck.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dangillmor The whistleblower case could be legitimately argued, in my view, for issues specific to US citizens.
    • @dangillmor There is no whistleblower case for revealing foreign intelligence operations not involving US citizens.
    • @dangillmor Which is the majority of what has happened.
    • @dangillmor To just ignore that or say it's OK is a whole new definition of OK from all US legal norms and precedents.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dangillmor The vast majority of the Snowden leaks have nothing to do with US citizens or US infrastructure.
    • @dangillmor The comprehensive leaking of US intelligence operations globally are treasonous by definition.
    • @dangillmor If Snowden and his allies had only revealed issues specific to US citizens & US companies, that would be one thing.
    • @dangillmor But that is very much not what has happened.
    • @dangillmor Snowden fans have cognitive dissonance, are ignoring all of his leaks that have nothing to do with US citizens: most of them.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @dangillmor NSA has been dual mission: protect US infrastructure + spy on foreign communication. That's obviously not sustainable.
    • @dangillmor As you know, at Netscape we were a big part of the fight with the NSA to overturn export controls on strong encryption.
    • @dangillmor I am an unconditional fan of unlimited strong encryption worldwide and always have been, as demonstrated by us creating SSL.
    • @dangillmor And I think the "protecting US infrastructure" part of the mission needs to increasingly dominate between the two.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/For the following, substitute rapidly rising tide of products & services for "Coke":
    • 2/"What's great about this country is that America started the tradition where the richest consumers..."
    • 3/"...buy essentially the same things as the poorest. You can be watching TV and see Coca-Cola: you know that the President drinks Coke..."
    • 4/"...Liz Taylor drinks Coke, and just think, you can drink Coke, too. A Coke is a Coke and no amount of money can get you a better Coke..."
    • 5/"...than the one the bum on the corner is drinking. All the Cokes are the same and all the Cokes are good..."
    • 6/".... Liz Taylor knows it, the President knows it, the bum knows it, and you know it." --Andy Warhol, 1975, http://t.co/jvqC0j07Nz

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @adamgurri @elidourado Economists who are not engineers are way more generous on the rate of progress of technology than engineers are.
    • @adamgurri @elidourado If I could also handwave my way into inventing robots that do everything, I'd be all set :-).
    • 1/Technology innovation disproportionately helps the poor more than it helps the rich, as the poor spend more of their income on products.
    • 2/This sounds like it must be a controversial and politically charged position, and yet it is not -- it flows from basic economics.
    • 3/The best way to understand this is by historical example: What the rich used to have and what the poor now have, due to tech innovation.
    • 4/Rich have always been able to pay servants to wash dishes; due to tech change, now most US homes have automatic dishwashers.
    • 5/Rich have always been able to pay servants to wash and dry clothes; now most US homes have automated washers and dryers.
    • 6/Rich were able to afford to have fresh ice delivered daily to make iceboxes work; now all American homes have refrigerators.
    • 7/Rich were always able to afford to hire musicians to play in their homes; now audio equipment and digital music are cheap for everyone.
    • 8/At one point only the rich could pay for horses, buggies, stables, coachmen -- now cars are easily affordable by almost everyone in West.
    • 9/Go far enough back, only rich could afford hand-copied books or to employ scribes; printing press made books accessible to the poor.
    • 10/Technology innovation is the main process by which luxury items become produced, packaged, and made affordable for everyone.
    • 11/Opposing tech innovation is punishing the poor by slowing the process by which they get things previously only affordable to the rich.
    • 12/And, tech innovation is the process by which everyone in the world will be able to afford things that are plentiful in the West today.
    • 13/A great lens on this is the US HUD housing survey; shows rapid material progress of poor Americans quite clearly. http://t.co/UkuFNDuUzj
    • Econorobotodesign (noun): The process by which economists with no technical training make up imaginary robots that can do everything.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @paultomkinson The protocol is that we can't invest in two companies that directly compete at the time of our investment.
    • @paultomkinson So if we are already in one company, and another comes along that competes for the same market, we can't invest.
    • @paultomkinson There can be arguments about what competes with what. We generally say "competing for same customer and $ of spend".
    • In case you missed it! Entrepreneur Justin Rosenstein (@rosenstein) on the nature and purpose of work -- http://t.co/6wlzrpXmR8

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Cycle time compression may be the most underestimated force in determining winners & losers in tech.
    • 2/First clear instance of cycle time compression: Cloud/SAAS vs on-premise enterprise software.
    • 3/Cloud/SAAS development cycles can be far faster than on-premise software; single instance deployed instantly to all customers.
    • 4/Further, customers can try and adopt cloud/SAAS far faster than they can try and adopt on-premise software.
    • 5/Implication: Cloud/SAAS is probably impossible to compete with for on-premise software across multiple product cycles.
    • 6/Second clear instance of cycle time compression: Product improvement & customer upgrade cycles for phones vs TVs and cars.
    • 7/Consumers can upgrade their phones every 1-2 years, vs TVs at 5-8 years? Cars at 10-12 years? With phones improving by leaps & bounds.
    • 8/Implication: At given point in time, your TV can be 4-6 years behind your phone; your car can be 9-10 years behind your phone.
    • 9/Implication: TVs and cars will become accessories for phones, not the other way around. And already happening: Airplay, Chromecast.
    • 10Interesting note: Web cycle times still much faster than mobile app cycle times due to restrictive mobile app store policies.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • So many people proclaiming "technology will kill all jobs" makes me long for the days when so many people proclaimed "innovation is dead".
    • @pmarca Which was, like, a year and a half ago...
    • @pmarca Or the days when "all US programming jobs are moving to India" which was like less than a decade ago...
    • @pmarca Or the days when "Japan is going to own the entire technology industry" which was 25 years ago...
    • @pmarca Or the days when "the Soviet Union is going to out-industrialize the US into the ground" which was 50 years ago...

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/This is probably a good time to say that I don't believe "robots will eat all the jobs".
    • 2/Preceding tweetstream was to extrapolate the idea out all the way, not to make the case that it's what's going to happen.
    • 3/First, robots and AI are not nearly as powerful and sophisticated as I think people are starting to fear. Really.
    • 4/With my VC/tech hat on I wish they were, but they're not. Enormous gaps between what we want them to do and what they can do.
    • 5/So there is still an enormous gap between what many people do in jobs today and what robots and AI can replace, and will be for decades.
    • 6/Second, even when robots and AI are far more powerful, there will still be many things that people can do that robots and AI can't.
    • 7/Creativity, innovation, exploration, art, science, entertainment, caring for others... we have no idea how to make machines do these.
    • 8/Third, when automation is abundant and cheap, human experiences become rare and valuable. Flows from our nature as human beings.
    • 9/Examples: Price of recorded music goes to zero; live touring business explodes. Price of drip coffee drops; handmade gourmet coffee grows.
    • 10/You see this effect throughout luxury goods markets. E.g. handmade high-end clothes. Will extend out to far more consumers in future.
    • 11/Fourth, just as most of us today have jobs that weren't even invented 100 years ago, same will be true 100 years from now.
    • 12/We have no idea what the fields/industries/businesses/jobs of the future will be; we just know we will create an enormous # of them.
    • 13/If robots/AI replace people for many of the things we do today, the new fields we create will build on a huge # of people then available.
    • 14/People 50, 100, 150, 200 years ago would marvel at the jobs that exist today; same will be true 50-100-150-200 years from now.
    • 15/To argue huge #'s of people will be available but we will find nothing for them (us) to do is to dramatically short human creativity.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 10/Here's the arbitrage logic: Suppose humans make widget X profitably at $10 price to consumer. Robots can make X at $5 price to consumer.
    • 11/Economics drive X to be made entirely by robots; consumers win. But then imagine owner of robots cranks X price to consumer to $20.
    • 12/Suddenly it's profitable for humans to make X again; entrepreneurs immediately start companies to make X with humans for price $10 again.
    • 13/Therefore, with rare exceptions, there won't be states where "robots eat jobs" and "products get more expensive". Almost always cheaper.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/The necessary consequence of "robots eat all the jobs" is "everything gets really cheap".
    • 2/The main reason to use robots instead of people to make something is when the robot can make it less expensively.
    • 3/When people can make something that costs less than what robots can make, then it makes economic sense to use people instead of robots.
    • 4/This is basic economic arbitrage at work. It sounds it must be a controversial claim but it's simply following the economic logic.
    • 5/So "robots eat jobs in field X" = "products get cheaper in field X" = "consumer standard of living increase in field X" -- necessarily.
    • 6/So arguing against "robots eat jobs" is equivalent to arguing "punish consumers with unnecessarily higher prices".
    • 7/Indeed, had robots/machines not eaten many jobs in agriculture and industry already, we would have a far lower standard of living today.
    • 8/Just as increases in consumer goods prices disproportionately hurt the poor, holding back on robots eating jobs would more hurt the poor.
    • 9/Same logic applies to trade barriers (import tariffs): disproportionately hurt poor consumers by inflicting higher consumer goods prices.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion Reading then-contemporary theories from similar periods in the last 100 years is eye opening.
    • @Noahpinion By the time I graduated college in 1993, I *knew* Japan would own everything and US economy was dying.
    • @Noahpinion By 1996, all of those theories had been dropped straight down the memory hole.
    • @Noahpinion We are all SO confident that we can extrapolate from the recent past and predict the future.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @Noahpinion To the extent it's been happening, I bet most of it has been the impact of dual macroeconomic crises.
    • @Noahpinion Equity crash of 2000 and subsequent recession, and debt crash of 2008 and subsequent whatever-you-call-it.
    • @Noahpinion I bet broad-based economic recovery follows and most of these issues drop back off the radar screen.
    • @Noahpinion Each down cycle seems to produce super-compelling doom and gloom theories that vanish upon the following recovery.
    • @Noahpinion 30's = capitalism doomed; 70's = inflation forever; 1989-1993 = Japan owns everything; and so on.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @shanselman At the start, the rich are already well off. They have material possessions and servants and all the rest.
    • @shanselman It takes technology driven change to put those things in forms and at prices where people who are not rich can afford them.
    • @shanselman Examples everywhere. Consider difference between employing a full-time messenger vs making a Skype call.
    • @shanselman Consider difference between employing full-time washerpeson vs buying a cheap washing machine.
    • @shanselman Consider difference between hiring a string quartet to perform live vs buying the same track on iTunes.
    • @shanselman Most of the things in our lives are things that only the wealthiest people in the world could afford 100 years ago.
    • @shanselman Not to mention the things that even the wealthiest couldn't possibly have had 100 years ago, starting w/penicillin.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/Thought experiment: Posit a world in which all material needs are provided for free, by robots and material synthesizers.
    • 2/Housing, energy, health care, food, transportation --> All delivered to everyone for $0, by machines. Zero jobs in those fields remaining.
    • 3/What would be the key characteristics of that world, and what would it be like to live in it?
    • 4/First, it's a consumer utopia: Everyone enjoys a standard of living that kings and Popes could have only dreamed.
    • 5/Fifth, all human time, labor, energy, ambition, and goals reorient to the intangibles: the big questions, the deep needs.
    • 6/Human nature expresses itself fully, for the first time in history. Without physical need constraints, we will be whoever we want to be.
    • 7/The main fields of human endeavor will be culture, arts, sciences, creativity, philosophy, experimentation, exploration, adventure.
    • 8/Rather than nothing to do, we would have everything to do: curiosity, artistic and scientific creativity, new forms of status seeking (!).
    • 9/Imagine six, or 10, billion people doing nothing but arts and sciences, culture and exploring and learning. What a world that would be.
    • 10/The problem seems unlikely to be that we'll get there too fast. The problem seems like to be that we'll get there too slow.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/The flip side of "robots eat all the jobs" not being discussed: The current revolution in the "means of production" going to everyone.
    • 2/In the form of the smartphone (and tablet and PC) + mobile broadband + the Internet: Will be in almost everyone's hands by 2020.
    • 3/Then everyone gets access to unlimited information, communication, education, access to markets, participate in global market economy.
    • 4/This is not a world we have ever lived in: Historically most people in most places cut off from these things, usually to a high degree.
    • 5/It is hard to believe that the result will not be a widespread global unleashing of creativity, productivity, and human potential.
    • 6/It is hard to believe that people will get these capabilities and then come up with... absolutely nothing useful to do with them.
    • 7/And yet that is the subtext to the "this time is different" argument that there won't be new ideas, fields, industries, businesses, jobs.
    • 8/In arguing this with an economist friend, response was "But most people are like horses; they have only their manual labor to offer."
    • 9/I don't believe that, and I don't want to live in a world in which that's the case. I think people everywhere have far more potential.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • 1/One of the most interesting topics in modern times is the "robots eat all the jobs" thesis; best book on topic: http://t.co/2bYZrGgbhr
    • 2/The thesis is that computers can more and more substitute for human labor, thus displacing jobs and creating unemployment.
    • 3/At core, this is Luddism (http://t.co/7lZ8vKCXrw) -- "lump of labor" fallacy, that there is a fixed amount of work to be done.
    • 4/The counterargument is Milton Friedman: Human wants and needs are infinite; there is always more to do. 200 years of history confirms.
    • 5/To avoid the Luddite mistake, must believe "this time is different", that either (a) there won't be new wants and needs (vs human nature),
    • 6/Or (b) It won't matter that there are new wants and needs, most people won't be able to adapt to contribute & have jobs in new fields.
    • 7/While it is certainly true that technological change displaces current work & jobs, and that is a serious issue that must be addressed...
    • 8/It is equally true, and important, that the other result of each such change is a step function increase in consumer standards of living.
    • 9/As consumers, we virtually never resist technology change that provides us with better products/services even when it costs jobs...
    • 10/Nor should we. This is how we build a better world, improve quality of life, better provide for our kids, solve fundamental problems.
    • 11/Make no mistake, advocating slowing tech change to preserve jobs = advocating punishing consumers, stalling quality of life improvements.
    • 12/So how then to best help individuals who are buffeted by producer-side technology change and lose jobs they wish they could keep?
    • 13/First, focus on increasing access to education and skill development -- which itself will increasingly be delivered via technology.
    • 14/Second, let markets work (voluntary contracts and trade) so that capital and labor can rapidly reallocate to create new fields and jobs.
    • 15/Third, a vigorous social safety net so that people are not stranded and unable to provide for their families.
    • 16/The loop closes as rapid technological productivity improvement and resulting economic growth make it easy to pay for safety net.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Outstanding piece in NYT on what American kids were like in the 19th century -- eye opening: http://t.co/gOoafKfo0V
    • "American children of the 19th century had a reputation. Returning British visitors reported on American kids who showed no respect..."
    • "...who swore and fought, who appeared — at age 10 — 'calling for liquor at the bar, or puffing a cigar in the streets,' as one wrote."
    • "There were really no children in 19th-century America, travelers often claimed, only 'small stuck-up caricatures of men and women.'"
    • "The story of every 19th-century empire builder — Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt — seems to begin with a striving 10-year-old."

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @trengriffin So here's the challenge, paraphrasing from my friend Andy Rachleff who has studied this topic in depth:
    • @trengriffin There have been two institutional portfolio investing strategies post WWII. The first was 60/40 stocks & bonds.
    • @trengriffin The second was David Swensen "endowment" model as described in his book http://t.co/gbsQEgI0Eb
    • @trengriffin What will the third be?
    • You should watch the premier of "Halt And Catch Fire" tonight. It's great. Or online here: http://t.co/u5a7bcQW2R — (RT @fmanjoo)

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @benparr 1 Far better editing/curation tools to view lists of users (e.g. those I follow), what lists they're in, edit lists, etc.
    • @benparr 2 Surface lists in the UI so they're not so buried and hard to get to e.g. on iPhone app.
    • @benparr 3 Better discovery -- to discover interesting new lists and do things with them.
    • @benparr I'm really surprised List functionality is so crude today given that they're ideal for both new users & experienced power users.

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • Europe adding illegal drug, prostitution, and smuggling activities to official measures of GDP (!!): http://t.co/j5Pkqt64dX
    • "To some, it smacks of 1987, when Italy started taking account of its [illegal] shadow economy..."
    • "As a result, the economy grew by 18% overnight, surging past Britain to be the West’s fourth-largest economy..."
    • "The event was hailed as il sorpasso (the overtaking) and the source of much national joy." !!

    10 months ago ago via Twitter


    • @vgr There is no substitute for the actual development of authentic market economies and democratic institutions.
    • @vgr Much of foreign aid is counterproductive for this reason. Particularly as it routinely get siphoned off to support the status quo.
    • @vgr Not surprising that attempting to pay more than productivity justifies = money siphoned off by intermediaries, reinforces status quo.
    • @vgr Solution has to be to raise productivity, increase economic opportunity and access to skill development, encourage good governance.